PKSMAKROEKONOMSKEinfo Jul 215. Priprema Centar za ekonomske analize redakcija časopisa Konjunkturni trendovi Srbije Tel: 11 33 97 E-mail: centarnir@pks.rs MESEČNI MAKROEKONOMSKI PREGLED br. 6-71* Jul 215. Bruto domaći proizvod Bruto domaći proizvod srpske privrede, prema preliminarnim podacima RZS, u prvom tromesečju 215. godine realno je bio niži za 1,8% u odnosu na isti kvartal prethodne godine i za,4% u poređenju sa prethodnim tromesečjem. Najveći realni rast bruto dodate vrednosti u prvom kvartalu ove godine, u odnosu na odgovarajući kvartal prethodne godine, ostvaren je u sektoru finansijskih delatnosti i delatnosti osiguranja (4,8%). S druge strane, značajan pad bruto dodate vrednosti zabeležen je u sektoru industrije i snabdevanja vodom i upravljanja otpadnim vodama (4,%) i sektoru državna uprava i obavezno socijalno osiguranje, obrazovanje i zdravstvena i socijalna zaštita (3,8%). Posmatrano po agregatima upotrebe bruto domaćeg proizvoda, u prvom kvartalu 215. godine u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, realni rast zabeležen je kod sledećih agregata: bruto investicije u osnovne fondove (4,4%), izvoz robe i usluga (9,7%) i uvoz robe i usluga (11,%). Realni pad zabeležen je kod: izdataka za finalnu potrošnju domaćinstava za,6%, izdataka za finalnu potrošnju neprofitnih institucija koje pružaju usluge domaćinstvima (NPID) za 2,7% i izdataka za finalnu potrošnju države za 3,5%. Potrošačke cene Cene potrošnih proizvoda i usluga u maju 215. godine bile su u proseku niže za,3% u odnosu na prethodni mesec, čemu je najvećim delom doprinelo pojeftinjenje svežeg povrća. Prosečan majski nivo potrošačkih cena viši je za 1,6% u odnosu na kraj prethodne godine i za 1,5% u poređenju sa petim mesecom. Procenti 2 15 1 5 Godišnja stopa Mesečna stopa MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC SURVEY No 6-71* July 215 Gross domestic product Gross domestic product of the Serbian economy, according to the preliminary data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for the first quarter of 215, recorded a drop of 1.8% in real terms, as compared with the same quarter of, and a drop of.4% in real terms as compared with the previous quarter. The biggest growth in gross value added in real terms in the first quarter this year, as compared with the corresponding quarter previous year, was recorded in the financial and insurance sector (4.8%). On the other hand, the sharpest drop in gross value added was recorded in the sector of industry and water supply and wastewater management (4.%) and the sectors of state administration and obligatory social insurance, education and health and social protection (3.8%). Observed by GDP aggregates, in the first quarter of 215 as compared to the same period previous year, real growth was recorded in the following aggregates: gross fixed capital formation (4.4%), exports of goods and services (9.7%) and imports of goods and services (11.%). The real decrease was recorded in: expenditure on final consumption of households by.6%, expenditure for final consumption of non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) by 2.7% and final consumption expenditure of the state by 3.5%. Consumer prices Prices of consumer goods and services in May 215 decreased on average by.3%, as compared with the previous month, which is mainly the consequence of the fall in prices of fresh vegetables. Average level of consumer prices in May was higher by 1.6% as compared with the end of the previous year, and by 1.5% as compared with the fifth month of. Per cent 2 15 1 5 Annual rate Monthly rate -5 211 VI XI IV IX II VII XII V X 215-5 211 VI XI IV IX II VII XII V X 215 Mesečna i godišnja stopa inflacije, 211-215. Monthly and Annual Inflation Rate, 211-215 *Izvori podataka: Republički zavod za statistiku RS, Narodna banka Srbije, Ministarstvo finansija RS, Nacionalna služba za zapošljavanje, Beogradska berza i Agencija za privatizaciju. * Data soruces: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, National Bank of Serbia, Ministry of Finance, National Employment Service, Belgrade Stock Exchange and Privatization Agency. 1
Posmatrano po glavnim grupama proizvoda i usluga klasifikovanih prema nameni potrošnje, u maju 215. godine, u odnosu na prethodni mesec, pad cena zabeležen je u grupi hrana i bezalkoholna pića (-1,1%) i u grupama zdravstvo i rekreacija i kultura (za po -,1%). Rast cena zabeležen je u grupama: transport (,5%), alkoholna pića i duvan (,4%), restorani i hoteli (,3%), kao i u grupama stan, voda, električna energija, gas i druga goriva; komunikacije i obrazovanje (za po,1%), dok se cene ostalih proizvoda i usluga nisu značajnije menjale. Na povratak inflacije ka cilju u drugom delu godine uticaće, pre svega, očekivane korekcije regulisanih cena i niska baza s kraja. godine. Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja u Republici Srbiji u maju 215. godine veća je za 17,7% nego u istom mesecu prethodne godine, dok je kumulativna industrijska proizvodnja za pet meseci ove godine ostvarila međugodišnji rast od 2%. Sva tri industrijska sektora ostvarila su rast proizvodnje u maju ove godine u odnosu na maj. Sektor snabdevanje električnom energijom, gasom, parom i klimatizacija zabeležio je rast od 48,8%, sektor rudarstvo rast od 23,9% i sektor prerađivačka industrija rast od 11,%. Posmatrano po nameni, sve grupe proizvoda ostvarile su rast produkcije u maju 215. godine, u poređenju sa istim mesecom. godine. Proizvodnja energije povećana je za 35,9%; proizvodnja kapitalnih proizvoda za 14,2%; proizvodnja intermedijarnih proizvoda, osim energije za 11,7%; proizvodnja netrajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju za 1,7% i proizvodnja trajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju za 6,1%. Observed by main groups of products and services, classified by purpose of consumption, in May 215, as compared with the previous month, the fall in prices was recorded in the following groups: food and soft drinks (-1.1%), healthcare and recreation and culture (-.1% respectively). Growth was recorded in the following groups: transport (.5%), alcoholic drinks and tobacco (.4%), restaurants and hotels (.3%), as well as in the groups of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; communications and education (.1% respectively), whereas prices of other products and services did not change substantially. Return to the inflation target from the second part of the year will be influenced, first of all, by the expected adjustments of administered prices, and the low basis from the end of. Industrial production Industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in May 215 was higher by 17.7% as compared with the corresponding month previous year, while the cumulative industrial production in the first five months of this year, recorded the year-on-year growth of 2%. All three sectors of industry recorded a growth in production in May this year, as compared with May. The sector of electricity, gas and steam supply and air conditioning, recorded a growth of 48.8%, the sector of mining grew by 23.9%, and the manufacturing industry recorded an increase of 11.%. Observed by purpose, all groups of products recorded a production growth in May 215, as compared with the corresponding month in. Energy generation grew by 35.9%; production of capital goods increased by 14.2%; production of intermediate products, other than energy, grew by 11.7%; production of non-durable consumer goods recorded a growth of 1.7% and production of durable consumer goods grew by 6.1%. Indeksi industrijske proizvodnje, 29-215 godine Najveći uticaj na rast industrijske proizvodnje u maju 215. godine, u odnosu na odgovarajući mesec prethodne godine, imale su: proizvodnja električne energije, eksploatacija uglja, proizvodnja mašina i opreme, proizvodnja osnovnih metala i proizvodnja pića. Zalihe industrijskih proizvoda u maju 215. bile su veće za 1,3% u odnosu na odgovarajući mesec prethodne godine, pri čemu je najveći rast zabeležen kod kapitalnih proizvoda i trajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju. Zalihe ruda povećane su u posmatranom mesecu za 1,1%, najvećim delom zbog rasta zaliha uglja, dok su zalihe prerađenih industrijskih proizvoda porasle za 1,%, čemu je najviše doprinelo povećanje zaliha osnovnih metala, odeće, ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava, nepomenutih mašina i motornih vozila i prikolica. Industrial production Indices, 211-215 Major impact on the growth in industrial production in May 215, as compared with the same month in, was made by the following: electricity generation, coal mining, manufacturing of machines and equipment, production of basic metals and production of beverages. Stocks of industrial products in May 215 were higher by 1.3% as compared with the same month previous year, whereby the largest growth was recorded with capital goods and durable consumer goods. The stocks of ores increased in the observed month by 1.1%, largely because of the growth in stocks of coal, while the stocks of processed industrial products grew by 1.%, largely due to the increased stocks of basic metals, clothing, other means of transportation, and machines, motor vehicles, and trailers not mentioned elsewhere. 2
Poljoprivreda U oblasti poljoprivrede objavljeni su podaci RZS o očekivanoj proizvodnji pšenice, i oni pokazuju da se, prema stanju useva na dan procene, 23.maja 215. godine, sa žetvenih površina od 589.922 hektara očekuje proizvodnja pšenice od 2.428.79 tona, što je za 1,7% više u odnosu na ostvarenu proizvodnju u prošloj godini i za 1,4% manje u odnosu na desetogodišnji prosek (25-). Istovremeno, procenjuje se da će očekivani rod pšenice sa prenetim zalihama iz prethodne sezone obezbediti samodovoljnost u snabdevanju domaćeg stanovništva, odgovarajuće zalihe i rezerve, kao i da će se tržišni viškovi realizovati u izvozu. U prolećnoj setvi, 215. godine, zasejano je 1.32.791 hektar pod kukuruzom (manje za 2,4% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu), suncokreta na površini od 17.612 hektara (za 8,5% manje), soje na površini od 187.95 hektara (21,8% više) i šećerne repe na površini od 42.123 hektara (manje za 34,3%). Promet robe u trgovini na malo Promet robe u trgovini na malo u Republici Srbiji, prema većini majskih pokazatelja RZS iskazao je tendenciju rasta; samo je u periodu januar-maj 215. godine zabeležen neznatan pad, posmatrano u tekućim cenama (za,4% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine), dok je istovremeno u stalnim cenama zabeležen rast od,6%. Prema ostalim pokazateljima, rast je evidentiran i u stalnim i u tekućim cenama, a on se kretao između 1% i 2%. Rast prometa u stalnim cenama ostvaren je u maju 215. godine u odnosu na maj. godine za 1,5%, u odnosu na prosek. godine za 1,3% i u odnosu na april 215. za 1,2%. Rast prometa u tekućim cenama, u maju 215. godine iznosio je 1,4% u odnosu na maj prethodne godine, zatim 2% u odnosu na prosek. godine i 1,1% u odnosu na april 215. godine. Agriculture In agriculture, the data were released the expected production of wheat by the Statistical Office of the RS, and they show that, according to the state of crops on the evaluation day, i.e. 23 May 215, the expected production of crop from the area of 589,922 hectares is 2,428,79 tons, which is higher by 1.7% as compared with the production in the previous year and by 1.4% lower as compared with the ten-year average (25-). At the same time, it is estimated that the expected wheat crop, together with the assigned stocks from the previous season, will ensure self-sufficiency in the supply of the domestic population, provide adequate stocks and reserves, and that market surpluses will be exported. In the spring sowing in 215, maize was sown on 1,32,791 hectares (lower by 2.4% as compared with the previous year), sunflower on 17,612 hectares (lower by 8.5%), soybean on 187,95 hectares (higher by 21.8%), and sugar beet at the area of 42,123 hectares (lower by 34.3%). Retail trade Turnover in retail trade in the Republic of Serbia, according to the majority of indicators of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for May 215, showed a growing trend. Only in the period January-May 215, a slight decline was recorded, observed in constant prices (by.4% as compared with the corresponding period previous year), whereas growth was recorded in current prices, and it stood at.6%. According to other indicators, growth was recorded both in constant and in current prices, and it ranged between 1% and 2%. Observed in constant prices, the turnover increased by 1.5% in May 215, as compared to May, by 1.3% as compared to average, and by 1.2% as compared to April 215. Observed in current prices, the turnover grew by 1.4% in May 215 as compared with May previous year, then by 2% as compared with average, and by 1.1% as compared with April 215. Indeksi prometa u trgovini na malo, maj 215. (Æ=1) Saobraćaj U saobraćaju, prema podacima RZS koji su objavljeni 1. juna 215. godine, u svim vidovima saobraćaja evidentiran je rast fizičkog obima usluga u prvom kvartalu 215. godine u odnosu na isti period. godine. Ukupan fizički obim usluga je povećan za 11,1%. U kopnenom saobraćaju evidentiran je rast od 5,7%, a po pojedinim vidovima kopnenog saobraćaja ostvareni su sledeći rezultati: u železničkom saobraćaju rast od 1,8%, u drumskom od 9,3%, u gradskom prevozu od,7% i u cevovodnom transportu od 8,8%. Istovremeno, u vazdušnom saobraćaju ostvaren je najdinamičniji rast fizičkog obima usluga u odnosu na sve ostale vidove saobraćaja, i to za 2,2%, a u rečnom saobraćaju ostvaren je rast od 7,8%. Retail trade turnover indices, May 215 Transport In transport, according to the data of the Statistical office of the RS, released on 1 June 215, all forms of transport recorded a growth in the physical volume of services in the first quarter of 215, as compared to the same period of. Total physical volume of services grew by 11.1%. In inland transport, a growth of 5.7% was recorded, and individual types of inland transport recorded growth as follows: railway transport 1.8%, road transport 9.3%, city transport.7% and pipeline transport 8.8%. At the same time, air transport recorded the most dynamic increase in the physical volume of services as compared to other forms of transportation, by 2.2%, and the river transport recorded a growth of 7.8%. 3
Turizam Turistička aktivnost u Republici Srbiji, u periodu januar-maj 215. godine, u odnosu na isti period. godine, iskazala je povoljne tendencije. Ukupan broj dolazaka turista povećan je za 13,8%, a ukupan broj noćenja za 8,4%. Broj dolazaka domaćih turista povećan je za 14,7%, a broj njihovih noćenja za 5,5%. U inostranom turizmu zabeležen je rast broja dolazaka za 12,6% i broja noćenja za 14,4%. Republiku Srbiju je u toku prvih pet meseci 215. godine posetilo ukupno 894.63 (domaćih i stranih) turista i ostvareno je ukupno 2.45.597 noćenja. Zaposlenost i nezaposlenost Ukupan broj zaposlenih krajem maja 215. godine procenjuje se na 1.697.191 lice, od čega je u okviru pravnih lica radilo 1.324.677, dok je privatnih preduzetnika i zaposlenih kod njih bilo 372.514. Ukupan broj zaposlenih se nije značajnije menjao u toku poslednjih godinu dana, a posmatrano po pojedinim sektorima, najveći rast zaposlenosti u odnosu na maj. godine, evidentiran je u trgovini i ugostiteljstvu, a najveći pad u zdravstvu i finansijskoj delatnosti i obrazovanju. Prema rezultatima Ankete o radnoj snazi za prvo tromesečje 215. godine, stopa zaposlenosti u ovom kvartalu je iznosila 41%, što je za,6 p.p. više u poređenju sa prethodnim kvartalom i za 1,6 p.p. više u odnosu na odgovarajuće tromesečje. Stopa neformalne zaposlenosti u I kvartalu 215. iznosila je 19,4% i manja je za 4,8 procentnih poena u odnosu na IV kvartal. godine, a takođe je manja za 1,1 procentni poen u odnosu na I kvartal. godine. Ukupan broj nezaposlenih u Republici Srbiji, prema podacima Nacionalne službe za zapošljavanje, poslednjeg dana maja 215. godine iznosio je 753.846 lica, od čega 54.39 lica na posao čeka duže od godinu dana. Nezaposlenost je opala u odnosu na prethodni mesec za 1,5%, a u odnosu na maj. godine za 3,18%. Osim ukupne nezaposlenosti, primetan je pad dugoročne nezaposlenosti za,84% u poređenju sa prethodnim mesecom i za 4,58% u odnosu na maj. Prema Anketi o radnoj snazi za prvi kvartal 215. godine, stopa nezaposlenosti u Republici Srbiji iznosila je 19,2%, što je u poređenju sa prethodnim kvartalom više za 2,4 p.p, a u poređenju sa istim kvartalom prethodne godine manje za 1,6 p.p. QI QII QIII QIV Ø QI 215 Stopa aktivnosti 48,4 49,5 49,3 48,5 48,9 5,8 Stopa nezaposlenosti 2,8 2,3 17,6 16,8 18,9 19,2 Stopa zaposlenosti 38,4 39,5 4,6 4,4 39,7 41, Stopa neformalne zaposlenosti 2,5 21,2 23,4 24,2 22, 19,4 Stope nezaposlenosti i zaposlenosti u. i u I kvartalu 215. Prosečna zarada Prosečna zarada isplaćena u maju 215. godine iznosi 6.487 dinara i u odnosu na prosečnu zaradu isplaćenu u prethodnom mesecu, nominalno je manja za 3,3%, a realno za 3,%. Kada se ova zarada uporedi za zaradom isplaćenom u odgovarajućem mesecu. godine, njen nominalni pad iznosi,8%, a realni 2,3%. Tourism Tourism activity in the Republic of Serbia in the period January-May 215, as compared with the same period, showed favourable trends. Total number of tourist arrivals grew by 13.8% and total number of overnight stays by 8.4%. The number of arrivals of domestic tourists grew by 14.7%, and the number of their overnight stays by 5.5%. International tourism saw a growth in the number of arrivals by 12.6% and in the number of overnight stays by 14.4%. In the first five months of 215, Serbia was visited by the total of 894,63 (domestic and foreign) tourists, and the total number of overnight stays amounted to 2,45,597. Employment and unemployment Total number of employed persons, on the last day of May 215, was estimated at 1,697,191, out of which legal persons employed the total of 1,324,677 persons, whereas private entrepreneurs employed 372,514 persons. The total number of employed persons did not change substantially in the last year, and observed by sectors, the largest growth in employment as compared with May, was recorded in trade and hospitality industry, and the sharpest drop was recorded in healthcare and financial activity and education. According to the findings of the Survey on Labour Force for the first quarter of 215, the employment rate in this quarter stood at 41%, which was by.6 p.p. higher as compared with the previous quarter, and by 1.6 p.p. as compared with the corresponding quarter of. The informal employment rate in the first quarter of 215 stood at 19.4%, and it was lower by 4.8 p.p. as compared with the forth quarter, and by 1.1 p.p. compared with first quarter of. Total number of unemployed persons in the Republic of Serbia, according to the data of the National Employment Service, on the last day of May 215, amounted to 753,846 persons, out of which 54,39 persons were seeking job for more than a year. Unemployment decreased by 1.5% as compared with the previous month, and by 3.18% as compared with May. Along with the total unemployment, long-term unemployment also decreased by.84%, as compared with the previous month, and by 4.58% as compared with May. According to the findings of the Survey on Labour Force for the first quarter of 215, the unemployment rate in the Republic of Serbia stood at 19.2%, which was higher by 2.4 p.p. as compared with the previous quarter, and lower by 1.6 p.p. as compared with the corresponding quarter previous year. QI QII QIII QIV Ø QI 215 Activity rate 48.4 49.5 49.3 48.5 48.9 5.8 Unemployment rate 2.8 2.3 17.6 16.8 18.9 19.2 Employment rate 38.4 39.5 4.6 4.4 39.7 41. Informal employment rate 2.5 21.2 23.4 24.2 22. 19.4 Unemployment and employment rates in and in I quarter 215 Average wage Average wage paid out in May 215 stood at 6,487 RSD and as compared with the average wage paid out in the previous month, it decreased nominally by 3.3% and in real terms by 3.%. As compared with the wage paid out in the corresponding month of, it decreased nominally by.8% and in real terms by 2.3%. 4
Prosečna zarada isplaćena za prvih pet meseci 215. godine, u poređenju sa istim vremenskim intervalom prethodne godine, manja je u nominalnom iznosu za,6%, a u realnom za 1,8%. Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u maju 215. godine iznosi 43.964 dinara. U poređenju sa prosečnom zaradom bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćenom u aprilu 215. godine, nominalno je manja za 3,6% i realno je manja za 3,3%. U odnosu na maj. godine nominalno je manja za,5% i realno je manja za 2,%. Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u periodu januar maj 215. godine, nominalno je manja za,4% i realno je manja za 1,6% u odnosu na isti period. godine. Spoljnotrgovinska razmena Ukupna spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Republike Srbije za pet meseci 215. godine iznosi 12.757,2 miliona USD (11.427, miliona evra), što predstavlja pad od 13,9% (rast od 5,9%, posmatrano u evrima) u odnosu na odgovarajuće razdoblje prethodne godine. Izvoz je iznosio 5.424,9 miliona USD (4.86,2 miliona evra), što je manje za 13,4% (više za 6,6%) u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, a uvezeno je robe u vrednosti od 7.332,3 miliona USD (6.566,8 miliona evra), što je za 14,3% manje (za 5,4% više) nego u prvih pet meseci. Pad izvoza i uvoza, kao i ukupne spoljnotrgovinske razmene, izraženo u dolarima, rezultat je jačanja ove valute, kako u odnosu na dinar, tako i u odnosu na evro. Negativan saldo robne razmene za pet meseci 215. godine je 1.97,3 miliona USD (1.76,6 miliona evra), što čini smanjenje od 16,8% (povećanje od 2,3%) u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, dok je pokrivenost uvoza izvozom 74,% i veća je od pokrivenosti u periodu januar maj. godine, kada je iznosila 73,2%. Spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena bila je najveća sa zemljama sa kojima Srbija ima potpisane sporazume o slobodnoj trgovini. Na zemlje članice Evropske unije otpada 64,7% ukupne razmene. Drugi po važnosti partner Srbije su zemlje CEFTA, sa kojima je za prvih pet meseci 215. ostvaren suficit u razmeni od 638,8 miliona USD. Ovaj suficit je rezultat uglavnom izvoza poljoprivrednih proizvoda, obuće i raznih gotovih proizvoda. Kada je reč o uvozu, najzastupljeniji su gvožđe i čelik, kameni ugalj i briketi i električna energija. Izvoz Srbije za posmatrani period iznosio je 935,8 miliona USD, a uvoz 297, miliona, uz visoku pokrivenost uvoza izvozom od 315,1%. Pojedinačno, glavna izvozna tržišta za srpske proizvode u periodu januar-maj 215. bila su: Italija (1.3,3 miliona USD), Nemačka (633,1 milion USD), Bosna i Hercegovina (451,6 miliona USD), Rumunija (366,3 miliona USD) i Ruska Federacija (255,4 miliona USD). Istovremeno, glavna uvozna tržišta bila su: Nemačka (883,3 miliona USD), Italija (815,6 miliona USD), Ruska Federacija (771,7 miliona USD), Kina (594,1 miliona USD) i Mađarska (351,1 miliona USD). Average wage paid out in the first five months of 215, as compared with the average wage paid out in the same period previous year, dropped both nominally by.6% and in real terms by 1.8% Average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in May 215 amounted to 43,964 RSD. As compared with the net average wage paid out in April 215, it decreased nominally by 3.6%, and in real terms by 3.3%. As compared with May, it decreased nominally by.5%, and in real terms by 2.%. Average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the period January-May 215, was lower nominally by.4% and in real terms by 1.6% as compared with the average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the corresponding period of. The foreign trade Total foreign trade in goods of the Republic of Serbia, for the five months of 215, amounts to 12,757.2 million USD (11,427. million EUR), which is a decrease of 13.9% (a growth of 5.9%, observed in euro), as compared to the corresponding interval of the previous year. The export amounted to 5,424.9 million USD (4,86.2 million EUR), which is by 13.4% less (by 6.6% higher) in relation to the same period of the previous year. The goods were imported in the value of 7,332.3 million USD (6,566.8 million EUR), which is by 14.3% less (by 5.4% higher) than in the first five months in. A drop in both exports and imports as well as in the total foreign trade, expressed in dollars, is a result of the appreciation of this currency both against RSD and EUR. The negative balance of the trade exchange for the first five months of 215 was 1,97.3 million USD (1,76.6 million EUR), which is a decline of 16.8% (an increase of 2.3%), as compared to the same period of the previous year, whereas the coverage of import by export is 74.% and it is higher than the coverage of import by export in January May, when it amounted to 73.2%. The largest foreign trade in goods was with the countries with which Serbia has signed the free trade agreements. The EU member states account for 64.7% of total foreign trade. The second important partner to Serbia are the CEFTA signatories, with which a surplus of 638.8 million USD was recorded in the first five months of 215. This surplus was mainly a result of the export of agricultural produce, footwear and miscellaneous finished products. As for imports, the most predominant products are iron and steel, hard coal and briquettes and electricity. In the observed period, Serbia s export amounted to 935.8 million USD, while the import was 297. million, with high coverage of import by export to the amount of 315.1%. Individually, the main export markets for Serbian products, in the period January May 215, were: Italy (1,3.3 million USD), Germany (633.1 million USD), Bosnia and Herzegovina (451.6 million USD), Romania (366.3 million USD) and the Russian Federation (255.4 million USD). At the same time, the main import markets were: Germany (883.3 million USD), Italy (815.6 million USD), the Russian Federation (771.7 million USD), China (594.1 million USD) and Hungary (351.1 million USD). 5
Ostali, 2955.2 Italija, 133.3 Nemačka, 633.1 Rest, 2955.2 Italy, 133.3 Germany, 633.1 Ruska F., 255.4 BIH, 451.6 Rumunija, 366.3 Romania, Russian F., 366.3 255.4 B&H, 451.6 Najznačajnija izvozna tržišta, januar-maj 215. (mil. USD) Najveći suficit tokom posmatranog perioda ostvaren je u trgovini sa: Bosnom i Hercegovinom, Crnom Gorom, Makedonijom, Italijom, Rumunijom, Bugarskom i SAD, a najveći deficit u razmeni sa Kinom (zbog uvoza telefona za mrežu stanica i laptopova), Ruskom Federacijom (zbog uvoza energenata, pre svega, nafte i gasa), Nemačkom, Poljskom (uvoz delova za motorna vozila), Mađarskom, Turskom, Švajcarskom, Belgijom i Austrijom. Prema odsecima Standardne međunarodne trgovinske klasifikacije, u izvozu Srbije za pet meseci 215. godine najveće učešće imali su: drumska vozila (767,9 miliona USD), električne mašine i aparati (373,8 miliona USD), žitarice i proizvodi od njih (321,3 miliona USD), povrće i voće (243,3 miliona USD) i gvožđe i čelik (235,2 miliona USD). Izvoz ovih pet odseka činio je 35,8% ukupnog izvoza. Prvih pet odseka sa najvećim učešćem u uvozu bili su: drumska vozila (782,6 miliona USD), nafta i naftni derivati (427,8 miliona USD), prirodni gas (363,9 miliona USD), električne mašine i aparati (283,5 miliona USD) i industrijske mašine za opštu upotrebu (244,5 miliona USD), a njihov uvoz činio je 28,7% ukupnog uvoza. Odsek nerazvrstana roba, u koji se sada uključuje i roba na carinskom skladištu, imao je učešće od 12,5% u ukupnom uvozu zemlje. Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije Srbije s inostranstvom u periodu januar-maj 215. godine pokazuje da je ostvaren izvoz u vrednosti od 1.136,3 miliona USD, što predstavlja pad od 1,1% u odnosu na rezultate iz istog perioda. godine. Udeo ove grupe u strukturi ukupnog robnog izvoza u prvom kvartalu 215. godine iznosio je 2,9%. Istovremeno, vrednost uvoza u visini od 581,3 miliona USD je za 12,2% manja u odnosu na januar-maj. godine, a učešće u ukupnom robnom uvozu je iznosilo 7,9%. Suficit u spoljnotrgovinskoj razmeni poljoprivredno-prehrambenih proizvoda u periodu januaru-maj 215. godine, iznosi 555, miliona USD i ima rast od 14,% u odnosu na isti period. godine, a stopa pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom je 195,5%. Bilans razmene usluga Bilans razmene usluga Srbije sa inostranstvom, prema podacima Narodne banke Srbije za period januar-april 215. godine, bio je pozitivan. Ostvaren je izvoz u vrednosti od 1.394 miliona USD i uvoz u vrednosti od 1.19 miliona USD, tako da je zabeležen pozitivan saldo bilansa usluga od približno 24 miliona USD. Pokazatelj pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom za prva četiri meseca 215. godine je The most important export markets, january-may 215 (mil. USD) During the observed period, the highest surplus was recorded in trade with: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria and the USA, whereas the largest deficit was recorded in trade with China (due to the import of the phones for the network of stations and laptops), the Russian Federation (due to imports of energy sources, mainly oil and gas), Germany, Poland ( import of parts for motor vehicles), Hungary, Turkey, Switzerland, Belgium and Austria. According to the sections of the Standard International Trade Classification, in the five months of 215, the goods with the largest share in exports of Serbia were: road vehicles (767.9 million USD), electrical machinery and apparatus (373.8 million USD), cereals and products based on grains (321.3 million USD), fruit and vegetables (243.3 million USD) and iron and steel (235.2 million USD). These five sections accounted for 35.8% of total exports. The first five sections with the largest share in imports were: road vehicles (782.6 million USD), oil and oil derivates (427.8 million USD), natural gas (363.9 million USD), electrical machinery and apparatus (283.5 million USD) and industrial machinery for general use (244.5 million USD), while these accounted for 28.7% of total imports. The section of unclassified goods, which now includes the goods in the customs warehouses, recorded a share in total imports of 12.5%. The balance of trade in agriculture and food industry Balance of foreign trade in agriculture and food industry of Serbia, in the period January May 215, shows the export value of 1,136.3 million USD, which is a decline of 1.1%, in relation to the results from the same period of. The share of this sector in the total goods exports of the first quarter of 215 amounted to 2.9%. At the same time, the value of imports to the amount of 581.3 million USD was by 12.2% less if compared with January May, whereas the share in the total imports of goods amounted to 7.9%. The surplus in foreign trade in agricultural and food products in the period January May 215 amounted to 555. million USD and recorded a growth of 14.% when compared to the same period of, while the import/export coverage ratio was 195.5%. The balance of trade in services Balance of foreign trade in services of Serbia, according to the data released by the National Bank of Serbia for the period January April 215, was positive. The export value amounted to 1,394 million USD and the import value was 1,19 million USD, thus a positive balance of services of 24 million USD was recorded. The indicator of import/ export coverage for the first four months of 215 amounted to 117.1 %. In the period 6
117,1 %. U periodu januar-april 215. godine u odnosu na isti period. godine, izvoz usluga je opao za 6,4%, a uvoz je opao za 12,2% (prema dolarskim vrednostima). Dinamičniji pad uvoza od izvoza doprineo je povećanju suficita za 52,4%. Platni bilans Deficit tekućeg računa platnog bilansa za prva četiri meseca 215. godine iznosio je 458 miliona evra, što je za 31,2% manje nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Smanjenju deficita doprinelo je povećanje prihoda od izvoza usluga za 15,2% (posmatrano u evrima), čemu su najviše doprinele građevinske i transportne usluge. Prihod od izvoza građevinskih usluga u posmatranom periodu je povećan za 28,3%, a od izvoza usluga transporta za 17,7%. Dok je u prva četiri meseca 215. godine zabeležen deficit robne razmene od 1.353 miliona evra, što je za 9,1% više u odnosu na prva četiri meseca. godine, u istom periodu ostvaren je pozitivan saldo bilansa usluga od 181 milion evra, koji je za 82 miliona evra ili 84,2% veći u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Negativan saldo primarnog dohotka u prva četiri meseca 215. godine u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine smanjen je za 26,7% i iznosio je 328 miliona evra. Pozitivan saldo sekundarnog dohotka u periodu januar-april 215. godine u odnosu na isti period. godine povećan je za 12,8% i iznosio je 1.42 miliona evra. Neto priliv SDI u periodu januar-april 215. godine iznosio je 37 miliona evra, što je za 28,1 manje u poređenju sa istim periodom. godine. Najveći priliv SDI potiče iz Evropske unije, i to oko 6% od ukupnog iznosa, zatim iz UAE (12%) i Švajcarske (11%). Prema predviđanju NBS, očekivani priliv SDI u 215. godini je 1,3 mlrd evra. Za prva četiri meseca 215. godine ostvaren je priliv portfolio investicija u iznosu od 322 miliona evra. Spoljni dug Spoljni dug Republike Srbije na dan 31. marta 215. godine, iznosio je 26.734,7 miliona evra, što je za 74,8 miliona evra više u poređenju sa iznosom duga krajem. godine. Spoljni dug javnog sektora iznosio je 15.72,1 miliona evra, a privatnog sektora 11.662,7 miliona evra. U strukturi spoljnog duga javnog sektora, najveći deo se odnosi na obaveze po osnovu kredita uzetih od stranih vlada, Međunarodne banke za obnovu i razvoj, Evropske investicione banke i Pariskog kluba. Spoljni dug privatnog sektora najvećim delom otpada na dug preduzeća, koji iznosi 9.79,6 miliona evra, što čini preko tri četvrtine ili 77,9% ukupnog spoljnog duga privatnog sektora. Javne finansije Konsolidovani bilans sektora države, prema podacima Ministarstva finansija za period januar-maj 215. godine, bio je u deficitu 27,2 mlrd. dinara. Javni prihodi za prvih pet meseci 215. godine bili su veći za 8,2% u odnosu na javne prihode u istom periodu. godine, dok su javni rashodi u istom periodu smanjeni za 4,7%. U posmatranom periodu javni prihodi su povećani po osnovu poreza na dodatu vrednost za 5,9%, zatim od akciza i carina za 7,7% odnosno 7,8%, a od donacija za 16,1%. Na strani javnih rashoda u periodu januar-maj 215. godine, došlo je do smanjenja rashoda za plate zaposlenih za 12,2%, dok su January April 215, as compared to the same period of, the export of services decreased by 6.4%, while the import of services declined by 12.2% (according to the value expressed in USD). More dynamic decline in imports than exports contributed to the increase of surplus of 52.4%. The balance of payments Current account deficit of balance of payments for the first four months of 215, amounted to 458 million EUR, which is by 31.2% less than in the same period of the previous year. The main factor for decrease in the deficit was the rise in services exports by 15.2% (observed in EUR), which was mainly contributed by construction and transport services. The revenues from the export of construction services, in the observed period, increased by 28.3%, while the export of transport services grew by 17.7%. While in the first four months of 215, the trade deficit of 1,353 million EUR was recorded, which is by 9.1% higher than in the first four months of, in the same period, a positive balance of services to the amount of 181 million EUR was recorded, which is by 82 million EUR or 84.2% higher as compared to the same period of the previous year. The negative balance of the primary income, in the first four months of 215, in relation to the same period of the previous year, declined by 26.7% and amounted to 328 million EUR. The positive balance of the secondary income in the period January April 215, in comparison with the same period of, increased by 12.8% and amounted to 1,42 million EUR. A net inflow of FDIs, in the period January April 215, amounted to 37 million EUR, which is by 28.1 less, in comparison with the same period of. The highest inflow of FDIs comes from the EU, about 6% of total amount, then from the UAE (12%) and Switzerland (11%). According to the forecasts of the NBS, the inflow of FDIs in 215 is expected to be 1.3 billion EUR. For the first four months of 215, the inflow of investment portfolio was recorded to the amount of 322 million EUR. The foreign debt Foreign debt of Serbia, on 31 March 215, amounted to 26,734.7 million EUR, which is by 74.8 million EUR higher in relation to the debt amount at the end of. Foreign public debt stood at 15,72.1 million EUR, while the foreign debt of the private sector was 11,662.7 million EUR. In the structure of the foreign public debt, the largest share refers to liabilities on the basis of loans taken from foreign governments, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank and Paris Club. The foreign debt of private sector primarily accounts for the debt of companies, which amounts to 9,79.6 million EUR, which accounts for three fourths or 77.9% of total foreign debt of private sector. Public finance Consolidated public sector balance sheet, according to the data of the Ministry of Finance, for the period January May 215, recorded deficit in the value of 27.2 billion RSD. The public revenues for the first five months of 215 were by 8.2% higher in relation to the public revenues in the same period of, whereas in the same period the public expenditures decreased by 4.7%. In the observed period, the public revenues increased on the basis of value added tax by 5.9%, then from excises and customs duties by 7.7% i.e. by 7.8%, and from donations by 16.1%. As for foreign public expenditures in the period January May 215, there was reduction of expenditures for salaries by 12.2%, whereas the ex- 7
rashodi za otplatu kamata povećani za 1,3% a po osnovu aktiviranih garancija za 57,4%. Posmatrano po nivoima vlasti, na lokalnom nivou države, za prvih pet meseci 215. godine ostvaren je suficit u iznosu od 8,9 mlrd. dinara, od čega suficit opština i gradova iznosi 7,2 mlrd. dinara, a suficit AP Vojvodine 1,7 mlrd. dinara, čemu su doprineli prihodi po osnovu poreza na dohodak građana. Javni dug Javni dug na dan 31. maja 215. godine iznosio je 24.9,5 miliona evra, što je za 1.328,9 miliona evra više u poređenju sa iznosom javnog duga na kraju. godine. Učešće javnog duga u BDP iznosi 72,7 % i veće je za 1,8 p.p. u odnosu na decembar. godine. Kurs dinara Kurs dinara u maju 215. godine nominalno je depresirao prema evru za,3%, prema švajcarskom franku za 1,5% i prema SAD dolaru za 1,7%, a Narodna banka Srbije nije intervenisala na međubankarskom deviznom tržištu. Nopenditures for payment of interest rates increased by 1.3% and on the basis of activated guarantees by 57.4%. Observed by the level of the state, in the first five months of 215, a surplus of 8.9 billion RSD was achieved at local level of the government, of which a surplus of municipalities and cities amounts to 7.2 billion RSD, and surplus of the AP Vojvodina is 1.7 billion RSD, which was contributed by the revenues from taxes on incomes of citizens. The total public debt Public debt, on 31 May 215, amounted to 24,9.5 million EUR, which is by 1,328.9 million EUR higher in comparison with the amount of the public debt recorded at the end of. The share of the public debt in GDP amounts to 72.7 % and is by 1.8% higher in relation to December. Ukupan javni dug (leva skala) Javni dug/bdp u % (desna skala) Total public debt (left scale) Public debt/gdp in % (right scale) Mil. EUR 3 25 2 15 1 5 21.2 14167.1 13433.9 11529.2 1123.2 9675.8 1282.7 9352.1 97.7 68.3 61.7 52.65.2 8875.3 8781.5 9849.3 12156.9 14788.8 17717 1.3 22757 249.5 59.6 7.9 72.7 45.4 56.2 35.9 29.9 28.332.8 41.8 25 2 15 1 5 % Mil. EUR 3 25 2 15 1 5 21.2 14167.1 13433.9 11529.2 1123.2 9675.8 1282.7 9352.1 97.7 68.3 61.7 52.6 5.2 8875.3 8781.5 9849.3 12156.9 14788.8 17717 1.3 22757 249.5 59.6 7.9 72.7 45.4 56.2 35.9 29.9 28.332.8 41.8 25 2 15 1 5 % Javni dug Republike Srbije, 2-215. Izvor: Ministarstvo finansija Republike Srbije Devizne rezerve Devizne rezerve NBS poslednjeg dana maja 215. godine iznosile su 1.545,1 milion evra, čime se obezbeđuje pokrivenost novčane mase M1 od 317% i oko sedam meseci uvoza robe i usluga. U odnosu na prethodni mesec devizne rezerve NBS povećane su za 11,6 miliona evra. Najveći devizni priliv u toku maja ostvaren je po osnovu prodaje hartija od vrednosti Republike Srbije na domaćem finansijskom tržištu, korišćenja kredita i donacija i izdvajanja devizne obavezne rezerve banaka. Neto ili stvarno raspoložive devizne rezerve na kraju maja iznosile su 8.392, miliona evra. Public debt of The Republic of Serbia, 2-215 Source: Ministry of Finance of Republic of Serbia Foreign exchange reserves Foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Serbia, on the last day of May 215, amounted to 1,545.1 million EUR, which ensures the coverage of money supply M1 of 317% and around seven months of imports of goods and services. If compared with the previous month, the foreign exchange reserves of the NBS increased by 11.6 million EUR. The largest foreign exchange inflow in May was realised from the sale of securities of the Republic of Serbia on domestic financial markets, allocation of foreign currency required reserves and the use of loans and grants. The net or real foreign exchange reserves at the end of May amounted to 8,392. million EUR. Devizne rezerve, 24-215. Izvor: Narodna banka Srbije Foreign exchange reserves, 24-215 Source: National Bank of Serbia RSD exchange rate RSD exchange rate, in May 215, nominally depreciated by.3% against EUR, by 1.5% against CHF and by 1.7% against the USD, and the National Bank of Serbia has not intervened in the inter-banking exchange rate market. 8
minalni efektivni devizni kurs dinara u maju je apresirao za,3%, dok je realni efektivni kurs depresirao za isti procenat. Od početka 215. godine srpska nacionalna valuta je neznatno ojačala prema evru (,3%), ali je istovremeno značajno oslabila u odnosu na franak (13,9%) i dolar (9,6%). U istom periodu, nominalni i realni devizni kurs dinara depresirali su za 1,2% i,4%, respektivno. Monetarna kretanja Monetarna politika nastavlja sa popuštanjem stega, što se ogleda u novom snižavanju referentne kamatne stope. Naime, Izvršni odbor NBS odlučio je, na sednici održanoj 11. juna 215. godine, da referentnu kamatnu stopu umanji za,5 p.p., tako da će ona do 9. jula iznositi 6%. U skladu sa ovom promenom, eskontna stopa NBS, takođe, je smanjena na 6%, a kamatne stope na depozitne i kamatne olakšice na 4% i 8%, respektivno. Izvršni odbor je konstatovao da se inflacija kreće ispod donje granice dozvoljenog odstupanja od cilja, kao i da se u drugoj polovini godine očekuje njen povratak u granice cilja. Tome će, uz do sada preduzete mere monetarne politike, doprineti uticaj regulisanih cena i cena naftnih derivata, koje su u prethodnom periodu imale privremeno dezinflatorno dejstvo. Ukupna štednja stanovništva poslednjeg dana maja 215. godine iznosila je 8.669,3 miliona evra i za 3,4 miliona je veća u poređenju sa prethodnim mesecom. Beogradska berza Informacije sa berzi pokazuju da su u junu gotovo svi najvažniji indeksi na svetskim berzama zabeležili značajan pad vrednosti, kao posledica krajnje nepovoljnih dešavanja u međunarodnom okruženju. Rasplamsavanje bliskoistočne političke krize i rastuća neizvesnost na relaciji Grčka-Evropska monetarna unija, glavni su uzrok rasta rizika u vezi poslovanja na svetskim berzama tokom juna. U skladu sa opštim kretanjima u svetu i indeksi Beogradske berze, BELEX15 i BELEXline, su na kraju juna iskazali veliki pad u odnosu na prethodni mesec, od 8,9% i 8,3%, respektivno. The nominal effective exchange rate in May appreciated by.3%, whereas the real effective exchange rate depreciated by the same percentage. Since the beginning of 215, the national currency slightly strengthened against EUR (.3%), but at the same time it substantially weakened as compared to the CHF (13.9%) and USD (9.6%). In the same period, both nominal and real effective exchange rate depreciated by 1.2% and.4%, respectively. Monetary indicators Monetary policy keeps becoming less stringent, which is reflected in a new reduction of the reference interest rate. At its meeting held on 11 June 215, the Executive Board of the NBS decided to reduce the reference interest rate by.5%, and by the next meeting set up for 9 July, it amounts to 6%. In accordance with the changes in the reference interest rate, the discount rate of the NBS decreased to 6%, while the interest rate on deposit facilities and interest rate on credit facilities decreased to 4% and 8%, respectively. The Executive Board stated that the inflation rate was below the low limit of the allowed deviation from the target rate as well as that in the second half of the year it was expected to return within the limits of the target. Along with the monetary policy measures undertaken, it will be contributed by the influence of the administered prices and price of oil derivatives which in the previous period had provisional disinflationary impact. The total citizens savings on the last day of May 215 amounted to 8,669.3 million EUR and is by 3.4 million higher in relation to the previous month. Belgrade Stock Exchange Stock exchange data show that in June all the most important indices on the global stock exchanges recorded a substantial decline, as a result of unfavourable occurrences in international environment. The aggravation of political crisis in the Middle East and increasing uncertainty of Greece and European monetary union are the main reasons for increasing risk of business operations in the international stock exchange markets in June. In accordance with the general trends in the world, the indices of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, BELEX15 and BELEXline, showed at the end of June a great decline of 8.9% and 8.3%, respectively, as compared to the previous month. Indeks 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 max 154 min 47.29 85.66 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 max 154 min 47.29 85.66 25VI 26V 27IV 28III 29II 21I 21XII 211XI 212X 213IX VII 215VII 25VI 26V 27IV 28III 29II 21I 21XII 211XI 212X Index 213IX VII 215VII BELEXsentiment, istorijski podaci Izvor: Beogradska berza Privatizacija Prema izveštaju Agencije za privatizaciju, u maju 215. godine nije bilo novih privatizacija, dok su u toku aprila na tržištu kapitala privatizovane dve kompanije, a jedno već privatizovano preduzeće promenilo je vlasnika. Ukupna prodajna cena za ova tri preduzeća iznosi 2,37 miliona evra. BELEXsentiment, historical data Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Privatization According to the report of the Agency for Privatization, in May 215, there were no new privatizations, while in April two enterprises were privatized on the capital market, and one previously privatized enterprise changed its owner. The total sales price for these three enterprises amounts to 2.37 million EUR. 9