The Importance of Service Frequency to Attracting Ridership: The Cases of Brampton and York Jonathan English Columbia University CUTA Conference May 2016
Introduction Is density the most important determinant of transit system success? Can transit be successful in areas with relatively low density and a suburban built form? Do service increases and reductions affect ridership? The goal is to find natural experiments that can answer these questions
The Region Source: Wikimedia
The Comparison York Region Transit Focused expansion on major corridors, including pioneering Viva BRT Tailored service to demand on secondary corridors Brampton Transit Developed grid network of high-service bus routes
High Frequency Routes York Brampton Green = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Grey = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Source: Public Schedules and Google Earth
Principal Findings Increased service improves ridership performance Network effect means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery
Brampton vs York Service Vehicle Kilometres/Capita 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 York Brampton Source: CUTA Fact Book
Brampton vs York Ridership 40 35 30 Brampton: +57.7% Riders/Capita 25 20 15 10 5 0 York: +29.7% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brampton York Source: CUTA Fact Book
Brampton Ridership vs Service Riders/Capita 40 35 30 25 20 15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
YRT Ridership vs Service Riders/Capita 25 20 15 10 5 0 *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011-2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free fares 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
Brampton Fare Recovery Ratio Operating Rev as % of Operating Cost 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
YRT Fare Recovery Ratio Operating Rev as % of Operating Cost 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011-2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free fares 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
Effect on Individual Routes The following slides will explore the effect of the service changes on a sample of individual routes They have been selected for their comparability The data sources are 2005 and 2016 timetables of York Region Transit and Brampton Transit
Highway 7 BRT and local routes in both Brampton and York Both major commercial arteries surrounded by single-family residences, serving major employment areas Comparison made with busier eastern section in York YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 149, Brampton Day Total: 201
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2005 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 YRT 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post-Viva BRT; 2005 Day Total: 55, 2016 Day Total: 149
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2005 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Brampton 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post- Züm BRT; 2005 Day Total: 106, 2016 Day Total: 201
Two typical secondary routes serving single-family residential areas YRT Route 7 Martin Grove Brampton Route 50 Gore Road Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth
5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 27, Brampton Day Total: 55
4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2005 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 YRT 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 31, 2016 Day Total: 27
5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2005 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 Brampton 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 8, 2016 Day Total: 55
3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Saturday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 33, YRT Day Total: 18
3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Sunday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 29, YRT Day Total: 0
Effect of Service Increase Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood, 2011 to 2015 Change in Trips per Day Change in Ridership 177% 54% 0% 18% Saturday Sunday Ridership Source: Brampton Transit
Timing the Effect Riders Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood Sundays, 2011 to 2015 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ridership 583 916 1404 1453 1614 Trips per Day 35 54 54 54 54 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Trips Ridership Source: Brampton Transit
Effect of Service Reductions Route Ridership Change Route 3 Thornhill January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 44 to 36 Weekday Trips) Overall Ridership Change in Municipality -0.5% -14.1% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics 2015 Third Quarter
Effect of Service Reductions Route 7 Martin Grove January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 29 to 27 Weekday Trips, Elimination of Saturday Clockface Schedule) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality 1.3% -8.9% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics 2015 Third Quarter
The Elephant Next Door Can statistical analysis permit us to draw conclusions on the effect of service based on a comparison with the very different TTC? Data is from the Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey
Mode Share by Census Tract
Across the Boundary Source: Google Earth
Census Tracts 239 census tracts selected in a band on either side of Toronto-York municipal boundary Areas of roughly equal size Both predominantly suburban, postwar Include large areas of singlefamily homes as well as employment areas and some towers Both have high percentage new Canadians Both areas predominantly middle class, though York side somewhat more affluent
Variables ModeShare The percentage of residents of a given tract who use public transit for their primary work trips. It is used to measure the success of transit at attracting riders. TTC A binary variable based on whether the tract is served by the Toronto Transit Commission. It is a proxy for level of transit service, as the TTC service area offers considerably more service than the non-ttc area MedianHouseholdIncome (control variable) The median household income in Canadian dollars of residents of a census tract Density (control variable) The density of residents per square kilometre in a census tract
Regression Results
Regression Results (cont d) The results of the regression analysis indicate that all of the analyzed variables added statistically significantly to the prediction. The equation had an r 2 of 0.6948. Controlling for both density and income, there is a statistically significant, positive relationship between being located in the TTC service area and the transit mode share.
Validity Threats Doesn t capture off-peak travel Doesn t capture people who walk to TTC Most data problems would understate effect of service on ridership Also may show impact of punitive cross-boundary fares
Conclusion Increased service improves ridership performance Network effect means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery
Jonathan English j.english@columbia.edu THANK YOU