Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the New York Area MITRE: James DeArmon Norma Taber Hilton Bateman Lixia Song Tudor Masek FAA: Daniel Gilani For ATM2013, 10-13 Jun 2013 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122 2013 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
Addressing Challenges to Managing Departures Effectively 2 Demand/Capacity Challenges: Impacted Fixes/Routes No route available FAA/MITRE MITRE It is difficult to assign the right routes to the right flights at the right time: Information gaps lead to inefficient, reactive operations Staying ahead of the tactical problem requires actionable information Lack of common understanding creates uncertainty among decision makers The point of action is too far removed from the point of decision making Departure queue sequencing is hard to align with available capacity
Reviewing Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Prototype Capabilities 3 Integrated Traffic A and Weather Map Fix Demand B Table Flight List C Route Impact D and Demand Table Route Options List E
Identifying IDRP Prototype Use Cases 4 Conducted New York area observations in 2011 and 2012 Identified typical traffic management events Selected instances of most common events observed Departures from 4 major New York area airports over 5 hours
Estimating Benefits of Use Cases: Simple Queuing Model 5 Type 1: Miles-in-trail (MIT) at fix Aircraft is ready for take-off... but must wait since fix is busy (in-trail spacing) Demand 50 40 30 20 10 Excess demand from Hour 1 Threshold Spills over to Hour 2, suffering delay 0 1 2 Hour Type 2 : Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) off airport Aircraft is ready for take-off 5-minute spacing... but must wait due to minutes-in-trail restriction
Use Case 1: Offload from Saturated Fix 6 On 19 July 2011, at 2000 GMT ELIOT: 20 Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restriction for the next 2 hours COATE: adequate capacity to accommodate offloads from ELIOT COATE ELIOT
Use Case 1: Offload From Saturated Fix 7 Flight List for ELIOT Route Options List COATE Offload
8 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 1 With IDRP: demand (after offloads) and capacity for 3 hours Hour (GMT) 2000 2100 2200 Demand 23 18 18 Capacity (20 MIT) 15 15 24 No IDRP: assume offloads not performed Hour (GMT) 2000 2100 2200 Demand 27 19 18 Capacity (20 MIT) 15 15 24 Queuing model results: 790 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 347 for With IDRP savings of 443 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $15,948 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $38,098 savings
Understanding TMIs with Interacting Surface Flows 9 LARRY 10 MIT reflect as fix threshold CURLY MOE 5 MINIT? 7 MINIT? departure delays to all three fixes are linked Airport A Airport B
Use Case 2: Airport Load Balancing 10 17 June 2011, 0915 GMT: flights routed over ELIOT to avoid storm ELIOT Typical solution: 5 Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) from each airport for ELIOT departures, assuming balanced demand
Use Case 2: Departure Runway Load Balancing 11 LGA Departure Queue IDRP showed LGA contributed many more flights than EWR Traffic manager chose to apply 7 MINIT at EWR, no restrictions on LGA EWR Departure Queue Flights over ELIOT would require additional 3 minutes spacing if subject to 5 MINIT restriction
12 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 2 With IDRP: LGA Runway 13 departures free flowing Hour (GMT) 1915 2015 Demand 29 26 Runway Capacity 30 30 No IDRP: nominal flow management action of 5 MINIT for LGA departures over ELIOT departure fix Hour (GMT) 1915 2015 Demand 29 26 (Effective) Runway Capacity 17 30 Queuing model results: 228 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 0 for With IDRP savings of 228 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $8,208 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $19,608 savings
Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures 13 On 4 June 2012, at 1345 GMT New York departure automation reported delays at LGA reached 30 minutes, as seen in this log entry IDRP showed 25 aircraft were in the LGA departure queue LGA Departure Queue
Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures 14 LGA Departure Queue LGA Runways Map source: FAA (http://aeronav.faa.gov/index.asp?xml=aeronav/applications/d_tpp) CONEY to RBV TNNIS to BIGGY
15 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 3 With IDRP: offload LGA departures to RBV, with diverging departures Hour 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 Demand 47 35 34 37 36 35 Capacity 34 36 35 40 36 36 No IDRP: no offloads Hour 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 Demand 47 35 34 37 36 35 Capacity 34 36 35 36 36 36 Queuing model results: 765 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 551 for With IDRP savings of 214 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $7,704 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $18,404 savings
Understanding Significance of Results 16 Achieved important delay and cost savings to air carriers As a result of moderate intervention by traffic flow managers Action taken in a selective and focused manner Resulted from common situations, occurring every day or at least several times per week Annual basis hundreds of times for each use case, therefore significant annual benefit Example: Single use per business day in New York (260 days per year) Average savings per day of approximately $36,000 Annual savings of $9.4 million in New York If similar at 4 other locations total savings $47 million per year
Validating Queuing Model 17 Developed alternate model for what-if modeling in IDRP prototype; approach is discrete event simulation Added model elements beyond simple queuing model Individual flights modeled Nominal take-off spacing, plus airspace constraints Secondary impact of one flight stuck in queue behind another Multiple departure runways; multiple feeder taxiing queues For validation, exercised model on Use Case 2 Estimated benefit of IDRP per simulation: about twice that of simple queuing model Result plausible in light of secondary delay in simulation We conjecture that the two models generate upper/lower bounds on an answer
Summarizing This Talk 18 Deployed and evaluated Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) in the New York area 2009-2012 Studied use cases representing typical events to compare delay with and without IDRP use Found benefits estimated at $7-16k saved in airline direct operating costs and $18-38k in passenger value of time per event, projected to total yearly savings of $9.4 million Projected savings at 4 similar locations would be $47 million per year total
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20 Back-up Slides Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122 2013 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
Presenting Integrated Information: Flight Lists 21 MITRE Flight lists can be customized and sorted by each column MITRE MITRE Flight Plan Data Surface Movement Data Flight Plan Data RAPT Wx and IDRP Demand Algorithms Flight Plan Data
Presenting Integrated Information: Route Options 22 MITRE MITRE View change in flight time and distance Database of Pre-defined Routes RAPT Wx and IDRP Data/Algorithms