Perth & Kinross Council Community Planning Partnership Report June 2016
Contents Foreword... 3 Section 1: Spring 2016 destination follow up of 2014/15 school leavers... 4 Background... 4 Section A: Initial overview... 5 Table 1: 2014/15 initial and follow up destinations in comparison to Scotland... 5 Graph 1: Comparison between initial and follow up destinations... 6 Table 2: Initial and follow up destination 2013/14 & 2014/15... 7 Graph 2: Five year positive destination trend... 7 Table 3: Percentage of school leavers who remained in a destination or moved into another destination category, 2014/15... 8 Section B: School leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up... 9 Table 4: School leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up... 10 Section C: Unemployed leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up... 11 Graph 3: Unemployed seeking in follow up by initial school leaver destination... 11 Table 5: Unemployed leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up... 12 Background notes:... 13 Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 2 of 13
Foreword Welcome to the June 2016 Community Planning Partnership report, providing you and local partners with key information specific to your CPP area. This edition focuses on the results of the 2014-15 school leaver destinations follow up which shows the characteristics of all leavers from publicly funded secondary schools, and the destination in which they are reported as at April 2016. We hope it will be useful in helping to inform the planning process around your local skills and youth employment strategies, as well as wider CPP outcomes. All of our statistics, including the latest Modern Apprenticeship and Employability Fund data, can be found on the statistics section of our website. You can also visit our In Your Area pages to access a wider range of information and data relating to your local area. Alongside this, you will have also received our Making Skills Work briefings for your CPP area providing an overview of key data relating to the activity we are delivering together with our partners. We d be delighted to receive your feedback and suggestions for future reports at corporate.affairs@sds.co.uk. Damien Yeates Chief Executive, Skills Development Scotland Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 3 of 13
Section 1: Spring 2016 destination follow up of 2014/15 school leavers Background Collation and analysis of school leaver destination data has been undertaken by SDS on behalf of the Scottish Government for a number of years. The purpose of the exercise is to gather and report the destinations of young people who have been identified as school leavers from Scotland s publicly funded secondary schools. The analysis is produced twice a year to report on both the initial (approximately 3 months after leaving school) destinations and follow-up or sustained (approximately 9 months after leaving school) destinations. The analysis of initial destinations was published in December 2015. This report focuses on the follow-up destinations and the analysis is based on young people who left school between 1st August 2014 and 15th September 2015. Statistics for both the destination of school leavers and the Participation Measure are extracted from the shared OfA (Opportunities for All) dataset held by SDS (also known as the SDS Customer Support System, or CSS). Leaver statuses are validated through a process which now relies significantly on the shared administrative data, updated by partners through data sharing, but also involves direct contact with individuals via the SDS contact centre or regional operations staff. The reported status is based on the last known status recorded for the leaver within the shared dataset using the snapshot reporting date of Monday 4th April 2016. The follow up results are currently used to monitor the national indicator Increase the proportion of young people in learning, training or work. Once fully established, the annual Participation Measure will become the primary means of monitoring policy progress and impact for the Opportunities for All policy and will replace the school leaver destination measure on Scotland Performs. Differences in reporting methodology In 2014, SGEAS introduced new reporting requirements leading to slightly different methodologies being adopted to report on school leaver destinations within Insight/Parentzone and also the National Statistics publication. Following consultation with the users of our publications, it was agreed SDS would continue to use the same reporting methodology as used in our previous publications. It is this methodology, based on the follow up leaver extract, which is currently used by Scotland Performs to report on the national indicator. Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 4 of 13
Section A: Initial overview Nationally, the initial destinations of school leavers gathered in October 2015 reported upon 53,834 i school leavers. By March 2016, the follow-up cohort was reduced to 53,654 because 180 (0.3%) leavers had either returned to school, were deceased or had moved outwith Scotland. Locally we reported upon 1,489 leavers from Perth & Kinross Council s mainstream secondary schools in the initial return. By March 2016, 16 leavers were excluded from the cohort leaving 1,473 leavers in the follow up return. The proportion of leavers who were in a positive destination in October 2015 was 91.8% and by the follow up survey in March 2016 this had risen by 2.4 percentage points ii (pp) to 94.2%. In comparison, nationally, the proportion of leavers who were in a positive destination in October 2015 was 92.9% and by the follow up survey this had fallen to 92%, a decrease of 0.9pp. This means that the percentage of leavers from Perth & Kinross Council reported in a positive destination in March 2016 was 2.2pp higher than the national average. The proportion of leavers reported in a positive destination in the authority in March 2016 was 0.6pp lower than in March 2015 when 94.8% of leavers were in a positive destination. Conversely, the proportion of leavers reported nationally in a positive destination in March 2016 was 0.5pp higher than it was in March 2015 when 91.5% of leavers were in a positive destination. Table 1: 2014/15 initial and follow up destinations in comparison to Scotland Destinations Initial Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding Scotland Follow Up % point change Perth & Kinross Council Initial Follow Up % point change Higher Education 38.3 36.4-1.9 38.3 36.8-1.5 Further Education 27.8 23.5-4.3 25.9 21.0-4.9 Training 3.8 2.8-1.0 1.9 2.1 0.2 Employment 21.7 28.2 6.5 24.1 32.2 8.1 Voluntary Work 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.1 Activity Agreement 0.9 0.8-0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 Unemployed Seeking 5.4 5.7 0.3 5.0 3.1-1.9 Unemployed Not Seeking 1.1 1.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.0 Unconfirmed 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0-0.5 Positive Destinations 92.9 92.0-0.9 91.8 94.2 2.4 Total Leavers 53,834 53,654 1,489 1,473 Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 5 of 13
Graph 1: Comparison between initial and follow up destinations 45% 40% 38.3% 36.8% Initial Return Follow Up Return 35% 32.2% 30% 25% 25.9% 24.1% 20% 21.0% 15% 10% 5% 0% Higher Education Further Education 1.9% 2.1% Training Employed Voluntary Work 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% Activity Agreements 5.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% Unemployed Seeking 0.5% 0.0% Unemployed Unconfirmed Not Seeking Within Perth & Kinross Council the destination category that witnessed the greatest percentage point increase between the initial and the follow up return was employment, with an increase of 8.1pp. Conversely, the destination category that witnessed the largest percentage point decrease between the initial and the follow up return was further education with a 4.9pp decrease. Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 6 of 13
Initial Return, 90.7% Follow Up Return, 90.3% Initial Return, 92.8% Follow Up Return, 91.8% Initial Return, 92.3% Follow Up Return, 92.6% Initial Return, 93.8% Follow Up Return, 94.8% Initial Return, 91.8% Follow Up Return, 94.2% Table 2: Initial and follow up destination 2013/14 & 2014/15 Perth & Kinross Council Initial Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding 2013/14 2014/15 Follow Up % point change Initial Follow Up % point change Higher Education 40.9 40.3-0.6 38.3 36.8-1.5 Further Education 28.2 26.0-2.2 25.9 21.0-4.9 Training 1.7 1.9 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.2 Employment 21.8 25.8 4.0 24.1 32.2 8.1 Voluntary Work 0.4 0.3-0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 Activity Agreement 0.8 0.5-0.3 0.5 0.9 0.4 Unemployed Seeking 5.2 4.3-0.9 5.0 3.1-1.9 Unemployed Not Seeking 0.6 0.9 0.3 2.7 2.7 0.0 Unconfirmed 0.5 0.0-0.5 0.5 0.0-0.5 Positive Destinations 93.8 94.8 1.0 91.8 94.2 2.4 Total Leavers 1,296 1,291 1,489 1,473 Graph 2: Five year positive destination trend 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 7 of 13
Table 3: Percentage of school leavers who remained in a destination or moved into another destination category, 2014/15 Perth & Kinross Council Initial Destination (Oct 2015) Number of School Leavers in the Initial Survey Remained in their original destination Moved to HE Moved to FE Moved to Training Follow up Destination (Mar 2016) Became Employed Entered Voluntary Work Entered an Activity Agree -ment Became U/E Seeking Became U/E Not Seeking Unconfirmed Higher Education 571 93.1 0.4 0.2 5.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 Further Education 385 77.7 1.0 1.6 14.4 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.0 0.0 Training 29 24.1 0.0 0.0 48.3 0.0 0.0 20.7 6.9 0.0 Employment 359 91.3 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.0 0.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 Voluntary Work 16 50.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 37.5 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 Activity Agreement 7 16.7 0.0 0.0 33.3 16.7 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 U/E Seeking 74 15.5 4.2 4.2 11.3 43.7 2.8 11.3 7.0 0.0 U/E Not Seeking 40 68.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 15.8 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unconfirmed 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4 14.3 0.0 14.3 0.0 Initial Survey 1,489 Follow up Survey 1,473 Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding 542 309 31 475 17 13 46 40 - Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 8 of 13
Table 3 charts the movement of leavers between the initial return and the follow up. Although most leavers remain in the same destination, movement across different destinations can also be seen. 93.1% of those reported within higher education in the initial return had remained in this destination by the time of the follow up. In addition, 6.2% were reported within another positive destination and 0.7% were reported in a negative destination iii within the follow up survey. 77.7% of leavers who were reported in further education in the initial return had remained in this destination by the time of the follow up. In addition, 17.8% were reported within another positive destination and 4.5% were reported in a negative destination within the follow up survey. 24.1% of leavers who were reported in training in the initial return had remained in this destination by the time of the follow up. In addition, 48.3% were reported within another positive destination and 27.6% were reported in a negative destination within the follow up survey. 91.3% of leavers who were reported in employment in the initial return had remained in this destination by the time of the follow up. In addition, 5.6% were reported within another positive destination and 3.1% were reported in a negative destination within the follow up survey. Of those reported as unemployed seeking in the initial return, 15.5% were again reported as unemployed seeking in March 2016. Detailed analysis of the unemployed seeking cohort is available later in this report. Section B: School leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up Table 4 provides an overview of leaver characteristics and compares destinations between the initial and the follow up survey. It shows that the majority of school leavers remained in the same positive destination (79.2%) in March 2016 as they were in back in October 2015. Small proportions moved from a positive destination to a negative destination (2.9%) and from a negative to a positive (5.0%). A higher proportion of females (89.8%) were reported in a positive destination in both returns compared to males (88.7%). Also, males were more likely than females to move from a positive destination to a negative destination (3.4% / 2.4%). Statutory winter leavers were the group that had the highest proportion of leavers reported in a negative destination in both returns (8.2%). Post statutory leavers were least likely to move from a positive destination to a negative destination with only 2.4% of leavers doing so. Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 9 of 13
Same positive destination in both Positive destination to another positive destination Positive destination to negative destination Negative destination to a positive destination Negative in both % of Cohort Table 4: School leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up Perth & Kinross Council All Leavers 79.2 10.0 2.9 5.0 2.9 Gender Male 79.8 8.8 3.4 5.7 2.2 51.5 Female 78.6 11.2 2.4 4.2 3.6 48.5 Stage of Leaving iv Statutory Summer Leaver 73.2 10.9 5.1 6.5 4.3 9.4 Statutory Winter Leaver 49.2 19.7 9.8 13.1 8.2 4.1 Post Statutory Leaver 81.3 9.4 2.4 4.4 2.5 86.5 SIMD Decile Ranking /Deprivation (SIMD 2012) v 1 (Most Deprived) 53.3 23.3 6.7 6.7 10.0 2.0 2 70.4 5.6 9.9 7.0 7.0 4.8 3 73.5 17.6 2.9 0.0 5.9 2.3 4 73.1 13.1 4.8 6.2 2.8 9.8 5 67.8 12.6 2.3 11.5 5.7 5.9 6 78.3 11.1 2.8 6.1 1.7 12.2 7 81.4 8.3 3.0 5.3 1.9 17.9 8 84.8 9.0 1.4 3.0 1.9 25.0 9 84.3 6.2 1.9 3.3 4.3 14.3 10 (Least Deprived) 78.0 14.6 2.4 4.9 0.0 5.6 Unknown 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 10 of 13
Section C: Unemployed leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up The initial destinations of school leavers identified that 74 (5.0%) leavers were unemployed seeking and by March 2016 this figure had fallen by 28 to 46 (3.1%). The graph below shows the March 2016 unemployed seeking cohort and their initial October destination. It shows that this group is fluid in nature. For example, 73.9% of those reported as unemployed seeking in the follow up return were reported in a positive destination in October, 2.2% were reported in another negative destination and 23.9% were reported as unemployed seeking in both returns. Of those leavers reported as unemployed seeking in both returns, 45.5% had secured a positive destination after leaving school but had not sustained it prior to the initial return. Also, 18.2% had been in a positive destination between the initial and the follow up return. Overall, of those reported as unemployed seeking in the follow up, 87.0% had been in at least one positive destination since leaving school but had not sustained it by the follow up. Graph 3: Unemployed seeking in follow up by initial school leaver destination Higher Education, 8.7% Further Education, 28.3% Training, 13.0% Employed, 19.6% Voluntary Work, 0.0% Activity Agreements, 4.3% Unemployed Seeking, 23.9% Unemployed Not Seeking, 0.0% Unconfirmed, 2.2% Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 11 of 13
Table 5 compares the characteristics of the full school leaver cohort and the unemployed seeking cohort. It allows the identification of those groups that are disproportionately represented within leavers reported as unemployed seeking. For example, those leavers who left school at their statutory winter leave date represent 4.1% of the whole leaver cohort but form 15.2% of those reported as unemployed seeking and are therefore disproportionately represented in the leavers within the unemployed seeking cohort. Table 5: Unemployed leaver characteristics in the 2014/15 destination follow up Perth & Kinross Council Gender % of Follow up Cohort % of Unemployed Seeking in Follow up Cohort Male 51.5 56.5 Female 48.5 43.5 Stage of Leaving Statutory Summer Leaver 9.4 15.2 Statutory Winter Leaver 4.1 15.2 Post Statutory Leaver 86.5 69.6 SIMD Decile Ranking /Deprivation (SIMD 2012) 1 (Most Deprived) 2.0 6.5 2 4.8 15.2 3 2.3 6.5 4 9.8 15.2 5 5.9 4.3 6 12.2 6.5 7 17.9 19.6 8 25.0 13.0 9 14.3 8.7 10 (Least Deprived) 5.6 4.3 Unknown 0.1 0.0 Please note that percentages may not total 100% due to rounding Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 12 of 13
Background notes: i Duplicate records were identified by SDS after the original Initial School Leaver Destinations had been reported. Initial totals have been adjusted accordingly. ii Percentage point(s) has been abbreviated to pp throughout this document. iii Negative destinations: this includes any leaver who is not reported in one of the positive destinations as outlined above. In this return it includes the following statuses: Unemployed Seeking: This category includes those who are in contact with SDS and are known by them to be seeking employment or training. This is based on regular contact between SDS and the customer. This does not refer to the definition of unemployed used by the Department for Work and Pensions to calculate published unemployment rates. This group also included some of those individuals undertaking personal skills development. Unemployed not seeking: includes leavers who are not seeking employment or training for a range of reasons. The reasons may involve those caring for children or other dependants, pregnancy, custody, sickness, those not yet ready to enter employment, education or training (EET), those choosing not to enter EET and those taking time out e.g. Spending time travelling during a gap year (with no deferred place in higher education). Unknown: Includes leavers whose destination is not known to either SDS or their partners. The term is used where a programme of direct phone calls has not been returned or responded to, and covers a number of circumstances including those who simply do not wish to engage or who may have gone abroad for an extended period after leaving school. Partnership working aims to minimise the number of young people in this category, with professionals working together to identify and provide support to young people who need help to move into learning or work. iv Stage of Leaving: A statutory summer leaver is a school leaver who chose to leave school at the earliest opportunity when they became eligible to leave school i.e. their 16th birthday fell on or between 1st March and 30th September in their year of leaving. A statutory winter leaver is a school leaver who chose to leave school at the earliest opportunity when they became eligible to leave school i.e. their 16th birthday fell between 1st October and the last day in February. A post statutory leaver is a school leaver who chose to remain at school passed their statutory leave date e.g. a winter leaver who would have been eligible to leave at the winter leave date but choose to remain at school until the summer leave date. Included in this group are leavers who have passed their statutory leave date and have left school at any stage throughout the year. v The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2012: SIMD identifies small area concentrations of multiple deprivation across all of Scotland in a fair way. It provides a relative measure of deprivation which means that the main output from SIMD - the SIMD ranks - can be used to compare data zones by providing a relative ranking from most deprived (rank 1) to least deprived (rank 6,505). In this report we have used SIMD deciles i.e. SIMD Decile 1 is more deprived than SIMD 10. SDS uses the Scottish Government s SIMD postcode look up file to identify SIMD based on an individual s postcode. We have used the postcode for the individual recorded on CSS, our customer management system. The SIMD relates to where a leaver was living at the point of the initial return and not the concentration of SIMD within a local authority. Perth & Kinross Council - Community Planning Partnership Report (June 2016) 13 of 13