Pilot Shortage Survey Results & Analysis September 2015
Background It is widely acknowledged that there will be an increasing demand for pilots in the aviation industry, which is set to grow exponentially over the next two decades. But are airlines ready to address this issue? Are there enough experienced pilots coming up the ranks to fill this forecast deficit? And if not, will planes be left grounded and foreign summer holidays swapped for staycations? This in-depth study examines the views of the airlines and the pilots tasked with keeping planes air-bound. While many surveys have focussed on pilots alone, mainly around the issue of fatigue and pay, and while there is often comment and conjecture on this particular topic, this report provides one of the few comprehensive studies from both sides, providing an insight into a critical part of the whole aviation picture. Consulting over 700 pilots at different stages in their career, as well as staff of various disciplines from airlines across the world, this study attempts to bridge the gap between the industry and its pilots. The aim is to understand if and why there is a shortage, and what can be done to tackle it and therefore keep planes in the sky.
Not a pilot shortage, but a skills shortage The increasing demand for air travel is showing no signs of abating, with Airbus estimating that 32,600 new passenger and freight aircraft 1 will be needed by 2035. Planes need pilots, and Boeing released a report last month saying that to support the growing demand there will be a global requirement for 558,000 new commercial pilots over the next two decades 2. However, insight from experts, as well as the headlines in the media, suggest a worrying shortage of pilots. The Telegraph reported that the current estimate of just under 150,000 pilots will need to be bolstered by a further 235,000 recruits over the next seven years 3. The article featured insight from pilottraining organisation CTC Aviation, who suggested that the airline is facing a looming skills shortage in the cockpit. The market also seems to be supporting this view, and to provide a solution to the situation, some low cost airlines are now offering ab-initio training, which is the first stage of flight training, while other carriers have started paying new pilots their salary from the time their type-rating training begins 4. This used to be standard practice, but in more recent years pilots have had to pay for all their training costs. Reverting back to supporting pilots financially seems to reinforce the general perception that there are not enough pilots for the demand. 1 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2015-2034 2 Boeing 2015 Pilot and Technician Outlook 3 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10471124/airline-face-looming-shortage-ofpilots-warns-ctc-aviation.html 4 https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-for-ryanair-training-is-a-base-issue-415327/
Why is there a skills shortage? A look into the results The reason for the pilot shortage seems to fall under two distinct categories industry growth, which 38% of airline respondents cited, and the retirement of the baby boomers, who benefitted from fully subsidised training. Many baby boomers, with their extensive flight hours and technical expertise, are the preferred choice of pilots. One third of airlines surveyed believed that the retirement of this generation of pilots would be the main driver for an increase in their recruitment. However, filling the gap is not so simple, as today s aviation climate is very different. In-house cadetship schemes are the exception rather than the norm. The present-day aspiring pilot must undertake expensive training, which can cost up to 90,000. This has been cited as the biggest challenge for a pilot looking for their first role, with 30% of pilots surveyed stating the cost of training to be an obstacle. Even after completing the training, pilots need to clock up 1,500 flight hours before getting a role in most airlines. This presents a catch-22 situation for newly qualified cadets as a lack of on-the-job opportunities with carriers prohibits them from fulfilling their quota. One qualified pilot who is still seeking a first role commented: The companies are always looking for pilots with lots of hours... they forget that when we get out of school we have a lack of hours and that new pilots need opportunities to start their career.
According to the survey, which mirrors the aforementioned statistics,76% of airlines questioned say they also expect to increase their number of pilots by 2017. However this is not the complete picture. Feedback from the airlines who took part in the study seems to suggest that the issue is not a pilot shortage, as widely reported, but a skilled pilot shortage. The survey reveals that while there are enough ab-initio level candidates, the number of direct-entry level candidates is insufficient for the level of demand. Over half of respondents (55%) from the airlines stated that they felt the industry had a skills deficit. This seemed to affect low-cost carriers more, with 58% of budget airlines arguing this case. Just under a third of VIP operators shared the same concern, suggesting that they have a larger pool of skilled candidates to choose from. The intelligence from the pilots survey reinforces the airlines view of a skills shortage, as 15% of pilots stated that they were qualified but without the training to progress, while 11% are still seeking their first role.
Of course, some pilots opt for the Pay-to-Fly (P2F) scheme, which involves them paying the airlines to fly their planes and gain commercial flying experience outside of a simulated setting. However this option has proved contentious, with campaigners denouncing the growing phenomenon and the European Cockpit Association calling for an end to the practice 5. The move towards self-funded training may be viewed by pilots as a lack of investment by the airline industry into the careers of aspiring cadets. The resultant factors have led to a small but notable number of pilots - 6% of those surveyed - believing that their peers are leaving the industry, contributing further towards the skills shortage. According to the survey, established pilots have noted this change and are concerned that new pilots may only be successful if they can afford to train and take advantage of the P2F scheme, rather than being brought in on merit. The insight from the airlines and pilots challenges the perception of a shortage. The reality - according to the survey - seems to be that the low skilled, low-hour many, outnumber the experienced few. A trend that perhaps is set to grown unless the industry embraces a sea-change in its recruitment, retention and training. 5 https://www.eurocockpit.be/node/2262/
A glass ceiling in aviation? The survey suggests that while pilots argue that there are not enough opportunities, airlines are complaining of a lack of skills. When airlines were asked what they believe to be the biggest challenge when recruiting pilots, the availability of suitable applicants and the quality of applications came up top, accounting for a combined 56% of responses. This compares with just 5% of airline respondents saying they receive too few applications, so it seems to be an issue of quality rather than quantity. This simple conundrum could be solved with mutual benefit, had it not been for the one obvious restriction. A fundamental issue evident in both the airlines and pilot survey was the flawed recruitment process, which has not really evolved over the years to meet the growing demand for skilled pilots. Of the pilots who had been working in the industry for over 10 years, 29% had applied for their first role in response to an advert, 10% were approached directly by an airline, while 8% came through an airline s in-house training scheme. For the new pilots who had started working in the last year, or were still waiting for their first role, 34% replied to an advert, 6% were headhunted, while 3% had come through an airline s in-house training programme, according to the survey. So over a decade on, little has changed. The airline survey showed that their current preferred method of recruitment is to place adverts for roles on their company website, relevant industry media and specialist job boards, which account for a third of responses. Airlines also stated that they are twice as likely to use adverts as they are to engage a recruitment agency to find skilled pilots. Without external headhunting and recruitment expertise, airlines are often left inundated with CVs to filter through, and still out of touch with their target demographic.
Airlines respondents suggested that they will continue to rely on adverts in the future, a worrying stance considering the lack of suitable applicants being cited as a concern. It seems that despite airlines acknowledging a skills shortage and difficulty finding the right candidates, they are not adapting their approach to address this. One pilot respondent commented: I know of an airline receiving 1000 CVs for eight positions in the last recruitment drive. There may be a shortage of experienced Captains / TRIs but there is no shortage of qualified non-rated First Officers / frozen ATPL holders. Another concern is that without specialist in-house recruitment expertise, many suitable candidates may miss an opportunity to get a role with an airline. A good recruitment strategy goes beyond sorting through CVs via a process of elimination. Rather it should look beyond type-rating, and assess a candidate s capabilities, expertise and potential. This could not be deduced from a CV alone. Profiling, interviewing and getting to know a candidate is vital to ensuring that airlines have the most suitable pilot in their cockpit.
Several airlines mentioned this as a point of concern, with one commenting: Too many (airline) HR departments do not understand enough about aviation to differentiate (CVs), and do not have enough people qualified to assess pilots' qualifications and experience. That leads to many (potentially) good CVs being dismissed, even before Flight Ops can have a chance to lay their eyes on them. The intelligence suggests that there may be a talent pool of pilots eagerly waiting for the opportunity to develop, but they are not on the airlines radar, nor are they given an opportunity to join the ranks of experienced pilots as their CV alone is not enough to get them through the door. Engaging support from specialist recruiters who can assess a large quantity of CVs, can save airlines both time and money, so they can focus on retaining their aviation talent and growing their business.
Consequences The survey reveals that airlines are already beginning to feel the consequences of a lack of skilled pilots. As a result, there may be an additional pressure on the few experienced pilots out there. When asked what can be done to address the pilot skills shortage, some respondents suggested extending the retirement age. This, however, is an unsustainable solution, and will only delay the issue rather than address and overcome it. Another issue is that judging a pilot predominantly on their hours can lead to a dangerous precedent. The requirement to have clocked up 1,500 flight hours can lead to pilots working overtime to reach their quota, which will only lead to fatigue and burnout. A survey by BALPA (the British Airline Pilots Association) revealed that more than half of pilots have fallen asleep whilst flying. One survey respondent said that while the minimum flight hours are in place to ensure flight safety, the consequences are that pilots will accumulate a vast number of flight hours in just a few years, while more experienced pilots would have flown the same number of hours over a decade. Simply observing the recent news stories regarding planes crashing is a stark enough reminder of the importance of a pilot s wellbeing when charged with safely flying passengers across the world. Nearly half of pilots responding to the BALPA survey 49% - said pilot fatigue was the biggest threat to flight safety, three times more than any other threat 6. 6 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24296544
A way forward The pilots surveyed were asked for their suggestions to address the shortage, and the overwhelming view was that airlines should offer training, as stated by 36% of respondents. This issue, as mentioned, is starting to be addressed by some organisations. Boeing is one such example, having invested in a comprehensive Pilot Development Program to train early stage pilots to become qualified commercial airline pilots 7. Another room for improvement, as suggested by pilots, was the rate of pay and conditions. It was noted that a pilot s salary in the first few years is much lower than perhaps the general public would believe, feeding into the other issue, that the aviation industry - once glamorous and highly sought - is losing its appeal. As one respondent simply says: There isn't a pilot shortage, there is a pay shortage. Pay more, and there will be more pilots. 7 http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing- forecasts-rising-demand-for-commercial-airline-pilots- technicians-300114993.html
Another point that was highlighted by airlines was the need for long-term strategic planning when it comes to finding the right pilots for the role. 71% of airlines believed that recruitment and strategic planning would be useful for their business. Pilots also see this as a crucial factor in addressing the skills shortage, with one respondent commenting: The shortage will continue. Recruitment has to be conducted carefully so as not to compromise quality for quantity. The point highlighted is crucial. Airlines need to look beyond what is on paper, and provide opportunities for low-skilled pilots to fly to minimise the consequences of the looming skills shortage. Finally, a fundamental point which recurred throughout both the pilots and airlines survey was the immediacy of the issue. Skilled pilots are retiring now, airlines are growing, and more passengers are flying. Action needs to be taken imminently to ensure the industry can cope with the aviation challenges of the future.
About AeroProfessional AeroProfessional is an international consultancy specialising in developing and delivering high-impact people strategies and resourcing solutions in aviation. With over 50 years combined experience in aviation recruitment, AeroProfessional guides companies through the complexities of European payroll compliance and provides insight into the important staffing considerations for airlines wanting to establish an overseas base. Through on-going involvement in the aviation industry, AeroProfessional has a set of specialised skills to offer, including managing over 200 strong cabin crew at Gatwick Airport and handling high-volume campaigns for full assessment days, as well as niche roles. A team of experienced AeroProfessional consultants operate across the field, providing support to airlines and pilots alike. Having moved the company s HQ to Farnborough Airport in early 2015, AeroProfessional is growing its business from recruitment consultants to all-round strategic partners.