Essential Trends BID Market Intelligence Issue 80 May 2017
Introduction Welcome to May s edition of Essential Trends. Last month we mentioned the negative impact that this year s later Easter made to March s sales figures, however the later Easter helped our city centre retailers report growth of 5.9% for April compared to the previous year, again outperforming the rest of the country by over 4%. This continues the long term trend of Edinburgh outperforming the rest of Scotland. Footfall also had a very positive growth compared to last April, up by 7.3%. This outperforms the UK figures, which fell by 2%. The last month has also seen the long running year on year increase in hospitality sales continue with Edinburgh recording impressive 11.9% uplift from 2016. Roddy Smith Chief Executive Contents 03 Footfall 11 Sales Monitors 14 Edinburgh Airport
Edinburgh Footfall Index May 2017 Edinburgh footfall figures for April 2017 are up by 7.3% compared to April 2016, and also increased by 16.5% compared to March 2017. The UK average decreased year on year by 2% and also decreased by 3.8% compared to the previous month. p3 Princes Street at Marks & Spencer s was the busiest spot in the city centre with just over one million people counted during April 2017, the last month in which figures are available. This represents an increase of 8.2% on last year. Monthly pedestrian numbers in the city centre follow an annual trend. They increase to their highest level of the year in August and fall to the lowest monthly totals during January and February before starting to increase again over spring and into the summer months. Footfall on Princess Street increased by 8.9% from March to April 2017. The tables below show footfall in the city centre and a breakdown by counter area. The daily information for the previous month is also presented in the charts. The UK footfall Index shows a decrease of 3.8% between March and April 2017, and decreased by 2.0% compared to April 2016.
Essential Trends Helen Dickinson, Director General, British Retail Consortium, commenting on the UK figures said: The Easter holidays boosted family visits to shopping destinations in April, resulting in the fastest annual growth of footfall since March 2014. The inclusion of the holidays in this period will have distorted this figure but even looking beyond this, the picture over the last quarter has been largely positive. As has been the trend for some months now, high streets across most of the UK attracted the largest increase in visitors out of all shopping destinations. This translated into good news for stores too, which saw their fastest annual sales growth since January last year.
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Essential Trends Day and night time pedestrian traffic in the Essential Edinburgh BID area In April 2017 footfall was up 6.1% in the BID area on last year, with footfall increasing on all periods compared to April 2016. The inclusion of the Easter holidays in April this year will have distorted footfall figures, but the increases in activity seem to be occurring later in the day. Footfall in the city centre for April 2017 was up on last year across all three main periods: morning; core retail hours; and evening hours. The early morning period increased by 7.8% on last year. The core retail period increased by 3.8%, and the evening period increased on last year by 15.4%. The following charts show the change in footfall over four different three hour periods. Around nine out of every ten visitors (88%) in the city centre are recorded over this 12-hour period.
May 2017 p9 Footfall on last year was slightly down during the earlier three-hour period (e.g. 8am to 11am). In all other periods footfall increased. The after 11am period increased by 2.0%, the after 2pm period increased by 5.4% compared to last year and the later period of 5-8pm increased the most by 12.5%. Note: BID area = Month and Annual comparison includes counter locations: FCUK Fredrick Street; Jenners Rose Street; M&S Princes Street; Tiso Rose Street, and South St Andrew Street McDonalds.
Essential Trends Day and night time pedestrian traffic in the Essential Edinburgh BID area cont...
Sales Monitors for April 2017 Retailers participating in the Retail Monitoring Programme reported these figures for April 2017. The figures for Edinburgh are based on a sample of city centre retailers. The figures for Scotland and the UK were reported from the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor May 2017 There was an encouraging turnover growth of 5.9% for Edinburgh retailers in April 2017 compared to April 2016 partly as a result of Easter being later in 2017. Retail businesses in Scotland s capital kept outperforming their peers in the rest of the country: In April, retailers from Scotland overall recorded a softer, yet promising, increase of 2.5%. This means that for the tenth time in row Edinburgh-based retailers traded better than retailers across Scotland. In the UK overall, retail sales increased by a whopping 6.3% on April last year. and the BRC Scottish Retail Sales Monitor. p11 Edinburgh based hospitality businesses that take part in the Hospitality Monitoring Programme experienced a staggering 11.9% growth in turnover in April 2017 compared to April 2016.
Essential Trends David Lonsdale, Director, Scottish Retail Consortium, commenting on the Scottish figures said: The impressive spike in Scottish retail sales last month is encouraging, albeit it was flattered somewhat by the timing of Easter this year. Nonetheless retailers will look on this as something of a rainbow amongst the gathering storm clouds, given expectations of an unsettled and squally period ahead for consumer demand. There was a further and stark polarisation in the retail sales performance of food and non-food categories. Grocery did well, especially fayre associated with the Easter holiday period. Indeed the total value of food sales recorded their best three-month performance since autumn 2013, helped in part by the recent return of food price inflation. In contrast non-food items continued to drop, recording their poorest quarterly results even adjusted for online sales for over four years. Whilst kids school-wear did reasonably well, spending on items often considered less essential or which come with a larger price tag continued to wilt as shoppers took a more cautious approach. The overall performance last month
May 2017 p13 was positive but could well prove short-lived. Retailers are grappling with several recent cost increases which are now really starting to take hold and which ultimately will affect margins and so their ability to invest. It will be a struggle to pass on these cost rises to increasingly cash-conscious shoppers, who are having to contend themselves with rises in inflation and council tax and measly real terms growth in wages. Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium, commenting on the UK figures said: April s sales provided a brief period of respite for retailers following a relentless start to the year. However, much of the rise was driven by the timing of Easter and the growing inflationary pressures the sector is facing, rather than a sudden upswing in consumer confidence. Food and drink sales soared significantly in April, suggesting that feasts remain at the heart of festive holidays. That said, in the ultra-competitive grocery sector, these growth figures should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, with margins under significant pressure and profitability remaining a concern. The growth in sales of children s clothes and toys points to parents making the most of school holidays and keeping the kids entertained. Meanwhile, the rise in furniture sales suggests that springtime home improvements have been kicked into gear. Looking ahead, retailers need to ensure that this month s boost doesn t lull them into a false sense of security. The retail landscape is changing fast and as such, agility and the ability to manage costs will remain critical. You are sent this information before publication in Essential Trends if you agree to participate in the City Centre Monitoring Project. For more information about how to participate in the Tunover Monitoring Project please contact Tom Mathar, Research Manager at LJ Research, who manages this project on our behalf: Tom@ljresearch.co.uk or 0131 623 6217
Essential Trends New Record High For April Passenger Numbers Edinburgh Airport has today announced the latest passenger numbers showing 1,141,823 people passed through the airport last month, making it the busiest April ever, up 13% from April 2016. The greatest increase was in International passenger numbers: up to 705,683 this year which represents a leap of 20.4% from the same month last year. Welcoming April s passenger figures Gordon Dewar, Edinburgh Airport s Chief Executive, said: These record breaking passenger figures for April underline Edinburgh Airport s ongoing success and very welcome indeed. Our expansion of routes and destinations is good news for travellers and it also creates new jobs, opportunities and offers greater international links for people in this city and for all of Scotland. With growth comes an increase in demand; it is vital that we are able to deliver a successful Airspace Change Programme to modernise the infrastructure in the sky. To this end I thank everyone who responded to the recent public consultation on this matter. The increase in passengers is due to the increase in international passengers from the new services launched from Edinburgh Airport over the last year with 27 new international services being launched in 2016.
May 2017 p15 Four new routes were launched in April 2017: Jet2 Almeria will operate weekly, Girona will operate twice weekly and Naples will operate weekly easyjet Bilbao launched on 30th April and will operate twice per week. More people travelled with: easyjet carried more people across its network than April 2016. More flights operated to its London bases, Luton, Stansted and Gatwick and to Amsterdam, Paris CDG, Geneva. Jet2.com launched 13 new routes from Edinburgh over 2016. Alicante, Murica, Faro, Vienna and Fuerteventura were particularly popular. Ryanair launched five new routes in March Girona, Vigo, Ibiza, Porto and Milan. More flights operated to Fuerteventura, Dublin, Palma, Rome, Tenerife and Warsaw Stobart Air have operated more flights to Dublin and Cork.
Essential Edinburgh 139 George Street Edinburgh EH2 4JY t: +44 (0) 131 220 8580 e: info@essentialedinburgh.co.uk @EssentialEdin www.essentialedinburgh.co.uk www.edinevents.com Essential Edinburgh 2017 City of Edinburgh Council t: +44 (0) 131 200 2000 e: economicstrategy@edinburgh.gov.uk edinburgh.gov.uk/citycentremonitoring