Asia Pacific Aviation Martin Eran-Tasker Technical Director Association of Asia Pacific Airlines COSCAP-NA 18 th SCM 16-17 May 2018
Overview AAPA Asia Pacific aviation Safety Performance Safety Priorities & Risks Safety Challenge
AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Regional trade association Members include major international airlines based in Asia Pacific Open to all scheduled international airlines based in Asia Pacific region Committed to promoting sustainable growth of the aviation industry serving both passenger and freight needs Permanent secretariat headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Representation in Washington and Brussels Serving the community and always open to new members
Working relationship on safety with airlines in the region Always open to new members and partners
Aviation is Big and Growing Airbus GMF 2015-2035
Growing middle class Updated * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices ** Estimate for 1996 split by region Source: Airbus GMF 2017-2036 Rapid growth of emerging market consumers
Aviation: delivering global mobility 4.1 billion passengers 11+ million daily 35% by value of global trade Goods worth US$6 trillion Safely connecting people and business Wider social and economic benefits Outstanding safety record Committed to sustainable growth Source: ICAO Preliminary Traffic Report, ATAG Benefits Beyond Borders
Asia Pacific Aviation US$218 billion revenue US$8 billion net profit 1,468 million passengers 1,054 million domestic 414 million international 23 million tonnes of cargo 7,867 aircraft Asia Pacific carriers overall market share: 34% of global passenger traffic 37% of global cargo traffic Data: Traffic: AAPA 2017 Estimates, Financials: IATA 2017 Estimates Source: Combined AAPA + non-aapa airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
World s ten busiest international/regional routes Rank Route PAX (million) 1 Hong Kong - Taipei 5.2 2 Jakarta - Singapore 3.4 3 Dublin London 3.4 4 Bangkok Hong Kong 3.0 5 Kuala Lumpur Singapore 2.8 6 Hong Kong Seoul 2.8 7 London New York 2.7 8 Hong Kong Singapore 2.6 9 Osaka Taipei 2.6 10 Tokyo Taipei 2.5 Source: IATA WATS 2017, 2016 data Key Asian air routes typically served by five or more airlines
World s ten busiest domestic routes Rank Route PAX (million) 1 Jeju Seoul 11.6 2 Sapporo Tokyo 7.7 3 Fukuoka Tokyo 7.3 4 Melbourne Sydney 7.3 5 Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City 6.3 6 Beijing Shanghai 6.3 7 Delhi Mumbai 5.5 8 Jakarta Surabaya 4.5 9 Jeddah Riyadh 4.4 10 Beijing - Chengdu 4.4 also mostly in Asia Source: IATA WATS 2017, 2016 data
Asia Pacific markets to lead future growth Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs) Asia Pacific 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Europe North America Middle East Latin America CIS Africa Major capital investment required Asia Pacific represents 40% of future aircraft orders & associated infrastructure requirements Source: Airbus GMF 2017-2036
Safety Performance
Aviation Safety Performance Western built jet aircraft Global Safety Performance: Major Accident Rate by Operator Region 2009 2018 3 year moving average 1 major accident in 1.5 million flights 1 major accident in 2 million flights 1 major accident in 3 million flights 1 major accident in 4 million flights 1 major accident in 5 million flights Source: AAPA Striving for continuous improvement
Major Accident Sites - 2018 Fatal Non-fatal 3 Major Commercial Airline Accidents (188) 5 military transports (314)
Latent* Safety Conditions Deficient or absent: Regulatory oversight Safety management Management systems Change management SOP and checking Training systems Qualifications and experience * Conditions present in the system before event and triggered by various factors
Safety Priorities & Risks
Global Safety Priorities Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I Runway Safety
Asia Pacific Safety Risks Identified Risk Factors: Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) (turboprops) Loss of Control in Flight Approach & Landing Runway Safety (excursions) Human Factors Wild Life Management Ground Accidents Focus on development and implementation of action plans to proactively manage such threats
How Can We? Enhance regional safety Improve safety culture Compliance culture v proactive safety culture/ risk based Ensure effective SMS implementation Respond to the challenges of growth Ensure effective training Ensure investment in infrastructure Respond to the need for a professional and experienced workforce source
Safety Culture the way things are done here the way an organization conducts its business and manages safety. strengthened by open and honest reporting system learns from errors, identify and take remedial action ensure that processes and procedures are improved to prevent recurrence of the errors Personal attitudes and Corporate Style Overcomes cultural attitudes Lead by example
Safety Challenge
Challenges in Asia Pacific Growth Regulatory oversight Political commitment Resources Legislative framework and policies Infrastructure Compliance Adopt proactive approach Effective SMS implementation Just Culture Data sharing Requires trust Facilitate risk assessments
Infrastructure Airports and airspace modernisation must keep pace with rapid traffic growth to avoid congestion and delays Significant capital investment required Slots management is an interim measure, not a solution Governments need to think beyond national borders and develop regional air traffic flow management systems Government role to coordinate infrastructure planning and investment
AAPA approach Open door policy on safety Efforts based on trust, transparency and partnership Forums, Workshops and Working Groups Safety Networks FOSWG, CaSWG, APTSF APASS Support national safety forums/ teams Outreach to regional ANSPs Work proactively with the regions regulators at COSCAP, APRASG andap DGCA conference to enhance safety Support AP-Share TWG Co Chair
AAPA approach Urge for effective regulatory oversight Urge for industry consultation Benchmarking and sharing of data with airline safety partners InfoExchange Hazard Reporting Sharing best practices Develop guidance and training Just Culture Outreach to Turboprop operators
Closing thoughts Passengers are our responsibility and must always have confidence that their journey will be safe, secure and convenient Flying is safer than ever Future infrastructure planning is today s challenge Governments need to keep pace with changing market dynamics Asia Pacific airlines are shaping the future of global aviation Acceptable levels of safety performance are our joint concern
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www.aapairlines.org Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Level 27-1, Menara Prestige 1 Jalan Pinang 50450 Kuala Lumpur MALAYSIA Tel: +60 3 2162 1888 Fax: +60 3 2162 6888 @aapairlines
AAPA Definition of Major Accidents AAPA defines Major Accident as an event that results in Aircraft destroyed; or Multiple fatalities to passengers and crew; or One fatality and the aircraft is substantially damaged. This includes any aircraft that is missing or inaccessible. In addition to the above, the AAPA includes the following extra criteria for its major accident statistics preparation: Aircraft involved is a western-built commercial jet aircraft of more than 30 passengers or MTOW of 20,000kg Aircraft involved is a commercial turboprop aircraft of more than 19 passengers or MTOW of 15,000kg