{prepared by ICAO-Nairobi Office)

m Distr.: LIMITED ECA/RCID/45(f)/98 October 1998 ENGLISH Original: English ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Meeting of working group for the preparation of the Conference of African ministers responsible for civil aviation 20-22 October, Nairobi, Kenya {prepared by ICAO-Nairobi Office)

African Air Transport: Challenges and Prospects 1.1.1 The majority of States in Africa are, in general, developing and most of them are classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Most States in the region continue to be faced with economic challenges which include high external debt. Although there has been signs of general economic improvement in the Region, due to shortage of resources and, in some cases, less priority being accorded to civil aviation in allocating what is available, air transport infrastructure in most States continue to deteriorate because of shortfalls in maintenance and renovation. It has also not been possible for the majority of States to meet the high cost of replacement of essential air navigation facilities. ICAO has, therefore, continued to give high priority support to developmental activities as part of the Technical Cooperation Programme and to providing policy and practical guidance on the organization and financial management, including cost recovery, of airports and air navigation services. 1.1.2 Globally, some of the challenges facing air transport include aviation safety, aviation security, global air navigation, financing and recovery of costs of providing airport and air navigation services, the environment, the Year 2000 problem and many other key issues of international civil aviation. 1.1.3 The following are some of the major challenges facing African Air transport to-day: a Provision and maintenance of air navigation facilities and services, particularly in some parts of Africa where there are shortcomings and deficiencies.» Implementation of ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices in the area of safety oversight «Coordinated planning and implementation of the CNS/ATM systems b Human resources planning, development, utilization and retention & Ratification of international air law instruments Regulatory changes in air transport

Sustainability of air transport infrastructure and services in the majority of States where resources have been made available for the development of infrastructure and human resources Aviation security a Facilitation 1.2 Prospects 1.2.1 Despite some of the tough challenges facing Africa which are both political and economic, there is some optimism regarding the future and prospects for the African air transport. 1.2.2 Civil aviation is always sensitive to political conditions. Favourable political enhance business and tourism opportunities and consequently encourage the development of civil aviation activities. Progress, however, is hampered in States where civil unrest prevails. 1.2.3 On the economic front, many African States have recorded significant growth since embracing economic reforms. These countries have resolved key economic constraints which are mainly in the form of weak institutions and economic policies. Most of the countries in Africa are freeing up their markets and exchange rates. They have also created a conducive environment for private sector investment, among other positive steps. 1.2.4 The IMF's semi-annual world economic outlook reports that African economic growth is expected to rebound to 4.6 per cent in 1998. The expected performance would be an improvement over 1997 when Africa saw a growth of 3.2 per cent, half a point lower than the IMF estimated last October. 1.2.5 The fund's 1998 projection assumes the continued implementation of disciplined macro-economic policies, further deepening of structural reforms and successful resolution of armed conflicts in some areas. 1.2.6 The IMF has cautioned that, inspite of the recent economic gains, the fragile economic situation of Africa could be affected by other factors such as weak commodity prices and the potential worldwide recession. 1.2.7 Abundant opportunities, therefore, do exist if economic reforms continue to be implemented by African States, It should also be noted that some of the problems are common to most of the countries of Africa, and call for similar and coordinated policy approaches. Among these, as cited by the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report, 1998 are the urgent need for a more efficient, dedicated and better renumerated civil service, and the building of greater trust between the State and private sectors in the economy.

1.2.8 According to recent medium-term forecasts developed by ICAO, the scheduled passenger traffic (expressed in passenger-kilometres performed) for the African airlines is expected to increase by 5.0, 5.5 and 5.5 for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000 respectively. These growth rates are in line with those projected for traffic world-wide..,2.9 With regard to achievements, ICAO has continued to play a positive role, through the Regional Offices in Africa, in advising and assisting States in the continent in the implementation of the ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPS), the Regional Air Navigation Plan, the Air Transport Legal and Public Information Programmes and Development and Implementation of the Technical Cooperation Programme. 1.2.10 As a result, a number of projects have been developed and implemented in association with civil aviation authorities of the States in the region. It should be stressed, at this point, that ICAO achievements are far beyond directly measurable or quantifiable monetary values. Safety, efficiency and regularity achievements may not be easy to quantify. 1.2.11 Also a number of States in Africa followed ICAO policy guidance on organizational structures of airports and air navigation services and successfully established autonomous and/or semi-autonomous civil aviation/airport authorities in accordance with AFI/7 RAN Meeting Recommendation. 2. Development of air transport services in Africa 2.1 Provision and Maintenance of Air Navigation Facilities and Services particularly in some parts of Africa where there are shortcomings and deficiencies 2.1.1 The most important step being recommended is that of encouraging States which have not yet done so in Africa to create autonomous civil aviation authorities to manage airports and air navigation facilities where feasible. A detailed Recommendation 14/3 on Institutional Strategies for Addressing Shortcomings in the Airports and Air Navigation Services in this regard was adopted by the ICAO Seventh Africa Indian ocean Regional Air Navigation (AFI/7) Meeting that was held in Abuja, Nigeria from 12 to 23 May 1997. Quote: Recommendation 14/3 - Reliability of Operation of Radio Navigation Aids That States take necessary measures to ensure that reliable and continued operation of radio navigation aids is achieved by: a) holding adequate stocks of expendable parts and parts having a limited service life; b) exchange of practical technical information relating to the operation of such aids; and c) arrangements for the exchange of spare parts between States whee necessary and possible. Unquote.

4 2.1.2 The AFI/7 RAN Meeting further examined possibilities for co-operative approach in the Region to the implementation, provision and financing of air navigation facilities and services, human resource planning and training, procurement and technical co-operation, all geared to addressing the deficiencies. 2.2 Implementation of Standards and Recommended practices in the Area of Safety 2.2.1 ICAO is addressing the shortcomings in the implementation of safety oversight in a global manner. This is in the form of safety oversight assessments, which are followed by corrective actions by the States themselves or with the assistance of ICAO. 2.2.2 The 32nd ICAO Assembly endorsed the establishment of a universal Safety Oversight Programme comprising regular, mandatory, systematic and harmonized safety audits, to be carried out by ICAO in all 185 Contracting States, effective 1 January 1999. Under the Programme, Contracting States agree to audits being performed at ICAO=s=s initiative, with the audited State=s consent and under a Memorandum of Understanding with the Organization, in order to fully respect the principle of sovereignty. 2.2.3 The Programme features greater transparency and increased disclosure of audit results. The Assembly urged all Contracting States to ensure that audit results are used for safetyrelated purposes only and directed the Council to apply the appropriate resources to implement the Programme. 2.2.4 The Assembly also endorsed the establishment of an ICAO Global Aviation Safety (GASP) and the concept of concentrating the safety-related activities of ICAO on those safety initiatives, planned or currently under way, that offer the best safety dividend in terms of reducing the accident rate. 2.2.5 In the AFI Region, ICAO has proposed sub-regional projects for States to address the challenges in a co-operative manner. The programme entails the harmonization of legislation on sub-regional basis, the training of personnel and the establishment of safety oversight organizations in States. In an effort to ensure sustainability, the long-term objective is to assist States to establish sub-regional safety oversight agencies which would be delegated by the States to carry out safety oversight assessments and related corrective measures. The agencies would be sustained by levying charges for services provided. The agencies would then employ personnel trained through the programme, and be able to offer them better working conditions in the interests of efficiency and also be able to retain them.

2.3 Coordinated Planning and Implementation of the CNS/ATM Systems 2.3.1 Coordination of the planning and implementation of the CNS/ATM systems is effected both at global and regional levels. 2.3.2 At the global level, ICAO has produced the AGlobal Air Navigation Plan for CNS/ATM Systems. 2.3.3 The Assembly invited Contracting States and concerned aviation partners to follow up on the recommendations of the World-wide Communications, Navigation, Surveillance and Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) Systems Implementation Conference, held in Rio de Janeiro. The Rio Conference clearly identified the needs and examined a range of financing options for the successful implementation of CNS/ATM systems, while recommending the development of a plan of action for the safe and orderly growth of civil aviation well into the 21st century. The Contracting States and aviation partners were encouraged to display the spirit of cooperation enshrined in the Declaration on Global Air Navigation Systems for the Twenty First Century adopted by the Conference and to commit resources as a matter of priority when following up on its recommendations. 2.3.4 ICAO is actively involved in the regional planning within the AFI context and also in the sub-regional planning among groups of States. The AFI CNS/ATM Plan was adopted by the Seventh Africa-Indian Ocean Regional Air Navigation Meeting (1997). Its progressive implementation will be pursued through sub-regional groupings of States with similar air traffic patterns. Trials of components of the CNS/ATM are being pursued by some States. A major challenge to the implementation of CNS/ATM is the availability of adequate radio frequency spectrum for communications and navigation. Aviation radio services are increasingly under pressure due to sharing rand interactions with other radio sources. It is therefore very important that each AFI State use the ICAO position on frequency spectrum issues in its national position paper for the World radio communication Conferences organized by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU 2.3.5 In the AFI Region, the planning and implementation of the CNS/ATM Systems is effected through the AFI Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APIRG), 2.4 Kiiman Resources Planning, Development, Utilisation and Retention 2.4.1 The challenges related to the planning and development of human resources are addressed through Technical Co-operation projects. This is in terms of training fellowships and assistance in the development and operation of Regional training centres. 2.4.2 ICAO also conducts workshops and seminars periodically to address specific areas.

2.5.1 In the global context, ICAO has developed administrative packages which can be used by States as Models in the process of ratifying international air law instruments. 2.5.2 At the regional level, States are being encouraged to use the packages in processing the international air law instruments for the purpose of ratification in line with their constitutional procedures. 2.5.3 Visits are also made to States to meet relevant authorities and urge them to ratify outstanding instruments in their respective States. 2.6 Regulatory Changes in Air Transport 2.6.1 The World-wide Air Transport Conference (Montreal, 1994) took place against the background of dynamic change in international air transport, brought about by increasing competition, transnationalization of business, globalization of the world economy and the emergence of regional economic groupings, privatization and liberalization of service industries and the introduction of new global trading arrangements for service sectors. In addition to its Recommendation which provides a policy framework for evolutionary and progressive change in air transport regulation, the Conference, and ICAO's Air Transport Regulation Panel (which subsequently undertook further work on certain topics discussed at the Conference), produced a number of conclusions and future regulatory arrangements designed to assist States in adjusting to a more competitive environment. 2.6.2 The following are some of regulatory trends and developments since the conference, in the context of conference conclusions and guidance:» Air Transport relationships and negotiations b Trends in air transport arrangements Slots allocation a Leasing & Competition law s Computer Reservation Systems (CRS) a Privatization «Transnational Ownership a Alliances 2.6;3 Each of the foregoing regulatory trends and developments has implications for air transport in Africa. In particular, the following may be noted; the trend towards regionalism as a means for opening up market access among small groups of States; the inclusion in air transport relationships of participation and other measures designed to move to a less regulated environment; the increasing importance of slots for market access to certain congested markets; the use of leased aircraft in the context of the entry into force of Article 83 bis of the Convention;

the extra-territorial application of competition laws; the role of CRS Codes of Conduct; the progress of privatization of national airlines in other regions; the increasing trend towards partial foreign ownership of national airlines; and the increasing importance of airline alliances. 2.6.4 To take just one of these examples, so as to identify its more specific implications for Africa: the implications of alliances for African air transport lie in their relevance for airline competitiveness, strategic positioning and potential for enhanced market access through traffic feed. African airlines will need to decide whether to be a part of this trend and, if so, whether and how to find suitable partners; regulatory authorities will need to address how they might facilitate the adaptation of their airlines to these broader global developments in the industry. 2.7 The Technical Co-operation Programme 2.7.1 The technical co-operation programme of ICAO has assisted in the development of air transport in Africa over the years. This has mainly been in terms of infrastructure and human resources development. 2.7.2 In some cases, some of the ICAO projects have not been sustainable mostly due to shortage of recurrent funding and institutional problems, mainly because the activities and services developed through such projects remained with governments and were financed through normal government machinery where they had to compete for funding with other government projects. Their funding depended on government prioritization at any given time. 2.7.3 ICAO is addressing the problem of lack of sustainability by encouraging States to adopt institutional strategies such as the creation of Civil Aviation Autonomous and/or Airport Authorities. 2.7.4 The organization is also recommending to States to approach implementation of some of the programmes such as safety oversight and CNS/ATM systems under regional or subregional co-operative arrangements. 2.8.1 In relation to Aviation Security (AVSEC) ratification of AVSEC legal instruments, enactment of enabling legislation and establishment of National AVSEC Programmes have continued to be given particular emphasis during regular visits by ICAO officials to States in the region, 2.8.2 Assistance continues to be given to States under the mechanism for financial, technical and material assistance to States with regard to Aviation Security, whose overall objective is to assist States in achieving compliance with the Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) of Annex 17 to the Chicago Convention, aimed at preventing acts of unlawful interference against civil aviation.

2.8.3 The results of the analysis of technical evaluation and follow-up visits to States evaluated, confirmed that the compliance with Annex 17 provisions is less than satisfactory. This is particularly so in the area of the organization at national and airport levels, as well as the implementation of relevant aviation security programmes. It should be noted that the majority of these States entered this assistance programme having minimal AVSEC infrastructure and expertise. Whilst many States have strenuously endeavoured to improve their capabilities in this regard, the Mechanism implementation strategy in the future will place greater emphasis on direct practical assistance. 2.9 Facilitation 2.9.1 In the area of facilitation, ICAO assists the civil aviation community improve air transport productivity and enhance customer service quality, through the implementation of Annex 9. The FAL Programme emphasizes the application of modern inspection and clearance techniques. This strategy: (a) increases compliance with national laws and regulations relating to customs, immigration, agriculture and public health, thereby reducing congestion and minimizing operational delays; (b) strengthens security by controlling abuses such as travel document fraud, illegal migration and narcotics trafficking; and, (c) supports the growth of international trade and tourism. 2.9.2 ICAO is encouraging and assisting States to establish Facilitation Programmes which are designed to help them to achieve maximum efficiency in their border clearance operations and at the same time achieve high quality security and law enforcement. 2.9.3 Visits have been made to States in the region in this regard to discuss the problems and offer assistance, as necessary. Meetings have also been held to provide a forum for the snaring of ideas and mapping out the way forward. 3,1 The following proposals are made in an effort to overcome the constraints related to the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Declaration: a Consideration should be made to formulate the declaration in the form of an African air transport policy which basically creates a conducive atmosphere for the development of air transport in Africa. The policy should not be prescriptive as to what steps or actions airlines should take in conducting business. The policy should allow airlines to make both business and operational decisions without governments being too restrictive. The airlines = decisions should be based on economic and operational considerations while they are not in conflict with national interests. Therefore, clear parameters should be laid out within which airlines can operate. E.C.A. LIBRARY

a Efforts should also be made to ensure that airlines actively participate in the formulation of the policy to an extent that they should feel that they are part of the process. This should be done while noting that most airlines are no more owned and controlled by Governments. In essence, the trend is more towards commercialized and private airlines. 4. Regulatory Frameworks to be set up for the African region and between Africa and 4.1 It is proposed that regulatory frameworks to be set up should, as much as possible, adopt conclusions and recommendations of the ICAO World-wide air Transport Conference (Montreal, 1994) which provides a policy framework for evolutionary progressive change in air transport regulation. This should also take into account subsequent work of the Air Transport Regulation Panel which produced a number of conclusions and guidance material designed to assist States in adjusting to a more competitive environment. ICAO has also produced guidance on the use of preferential measures for developing countries and the recent 32nd Session of the Assembly urged States to give special consideration in their air transport relationships to the interests and needs of developing countries and, where circumstances warrant, to grant appropriate preferential measures. ICAO will continue to work on developing guidance on economic regulatory matters, to assist States in making the transition to the changing environment. 4.2 The regulatory framework should also take into account the interests of the continent in the development and operation of air transport services. Measures should be taken to ensure effective and sustained participation in international air transport in line with the recommendations and conclusions of the World-wide Air Transport Conference and subsequent ICAO guidance on economic regulation. 5. Amendments Necessary to the Yamoussoukro Declaration 5.1 It is proposed that the Yamoussoukro Declaration should be amended to reflect a harmonious and well integrated air transport policy for Africa. It should not be prescriptive but should be flexible in order to allow airlines to make commercial and operational decisions in the interests of efficiency. This should take into account the interests of the continent, and also take into account the current trends in the regulation of international ah* transport. 6. Co-ordination 6.1 There are a number of regional and sub-regional organizations and groupings in Africa which, at times, perform similar functions in a duplicative manner. 6.2 The recommendation is that caution should be taken to ensure that all initiatives undertaken towards the development of air transport in Africa are properly co-ordinated in order to ensure the efficient utilization of the limited resources while striving to achieve set goals. -END-