Kosovo s economic and investment potential

Kosovo s economic and investment potential Jane Armitage Country Director US-Kosovo Trade & Investment Forum New York October 27, 2010 1

Topics covered in the presentation Kosovo s economic and investment potential What matters to foreign investors? The World Bank Group in Kosovo 2

Kosovo s economic and investment potential

Kosovo s economic performance has been solid and resilient to global crisis 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Albania BiH Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Kosovo Montenegro Serbia 4

The economy has the potential to grow more rapidly Kosovo s main economic assets are: Natural resources (minerals) Young, growing and low-cost labor force Agriculture land Free market access to the EU and CEFTA (Balkans and Moldova) markets 5

Natural Resources Are Abundant, but Underutilized Kosovo s soil has abundant deposits of lignite (over 10 billion tons), but also ferronickel, lead, zinc, magnetite, and other ores The lead-zinc mine Trepca, the largest in the former Yugoslavia, is sitting idle. So are the magnesia production companies and other mines The ferro-nickel company was restarted with foreign capital in 2005: today it employs 1,000 workers and accounts for about half of Kosovo s exports

Kosovo has among the lowest labor costs in the region, which could attract export-oriented labor-intensive investment Average monthly wage, in EUR 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Albania Bulgaria Kosovo Macedonia Serbia BiH Montenegro - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7

The agriculture sector offers great investment opportunities The decline in the sector over the past two decades implies substantial unused capacity The abundant low-cost rural labor force, which is currently unemployed, is an opportunity for investment in the sector Kosovo has free market access (for most agriculture products) to the European and regional markets Sub-sectoral analysis shows comparative advantage to be in high-value fruits and vegetables 8

Most of Kosovo s trade goes to the EU and the Balkans. Kosovo s integration in the regional market is perceived very positively by investors Do you see Kosovo as part of a regional market both in terms of consumers and as being part of a regional supply chain? 9

Infrastructure is another important sector both for attracting investment and stimulating economic activity Several large investments in the pipeline: new power plant and rehabilitation of existing one, privatization of electricity distribution, developing hydro-power plant (350 MW), highway to Albania, privatization of PTK, airport (expansion) concession These investments are expected to generate of US$ 3 billion of investments

And there is further potential for investment Other potential infrastructure projects include: Addition electricity generation capacity (up to US$ 2.7 billion) Natural gas transmission and distribution (US$ 350 million) Energy efficiency projects (US$ 140 million) District heating in Pristina (US$ 35 million) Expansion of road to Macedonia/Greece Railway development

What matters to foreign investors?

Tapping into Kosovo s economic potential For the size of its economy, Kosovo attracted substantial foreign investment (10% of GDP in 2006-08). FDI slowed in 2009, partly as a result of the global crisis FDI has come mostly from privatization Sustaining high FDI will require a shift to greenfield investment 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Total FDI in 2006-08 US$ million as % of GDP 25 20 15 10 5 0 13

Kosovo s comparative advantages for FDI, exports, and growth The tax system is simple and has low rates, Labor market rigidities are very low Wages are lower than in the wider region Free market access, and close proximity, to EU and CEFTA (Balkans) markets 14

The strong interest of foreign investors confirms these advantages Existing investors are very keen to expand their business in Kosovo certain to invest very high high moderate low very low won't invest 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Potential investors Investors in other Balkan countries Investors in Kosovo

What else matters to foreign investors? Simple and transparent business regulations Efficient and predictable legal system, and property right security Reliable electricity supply Good infrastructure Stable macroeconomic environment Political stability (and security)

Improving Kosovo s attractiveness Simplifying business registration and licensing Strengthening rule of law through depolitization of courts, fight against corruption, better transparency Expanding cadastre coverage and easing property registration Investing in energy sector and improving the governance/efficiency in the sector Developing and maintaining main infrastructure lines Maintaining sound fiscal policies and improving the quality/targeting of public expenditures (implementing IMF program)

In addition, Kosovo should address its image problem : foreign investors are more informed about opportunities in other Balkan countries and have a weaker perception of Kosovo than deserved 18

The World Bank Group s support to Kosovo

The World Bank supports Kosovo s development Kosovo joined the World Bank Group, and the IMF, in June 2009 The World Bank has financed projects of over $150 million (grants) over the last decade Focus has been on rebuilding schools, improving water and waste management, promoting youth, strengthening the capacity of the public administration Projects in the pipeline will strengthen property rights, business regulations and promote investment in agriculture and industry

World Bank and other donors are assisting the Government in the reforms The World Bank financed the establishment of one-stop-shops for business registration A World Bank project will help expand the cadastre coverage and strengthen property rights Energy sector has benefited from several World Bank (and other donors ) projects The EU, the World Bank and other donors are providing grant funds to the Kosovo budget (to help finance the large needs of the new state)

IFC sees potential for investment IFC is keen to invest in agriculture / foodprocessing firms (projects already in pipeline) On infrastructure, IFC is a lead advisor to the Government on two PPPs (power distribution privatization and solid waste management) In addition, IFC has co-invested with foreign investors in manufacturing and mining capacities Also is providing credit lines, through commercial banks, for SMEs and trade finance (including for agri-firms)

Thank you for your time. http://www.worldbank.org/kosovo 23