Residential Market Review Q1 2015
Contents Great Britain Greater London South West South East East Anglia East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber North West North East Scotland Wales Methodology Contributors 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 29 The Move with Us Residential Market Review analyses both sales and rental markets. This provides the complete picture of the housing markets in Britain s 11 regions. 2 3
Great Britain Great Britain, the island on which we live is the largest island in Europe. With a population of around 61 million people, it s the third most populated island in the world (behind Java, Indonesia and Honshu, Japan). Our island covers an area of 229,848 km2 and is surrounded by over 1,000 smaller islands. There are over 25 million homes in the UK. The number of home owners has risen by more than one million since 1997. We are 74 times smaller than the USA but despite being small, we are mighty. We have three times the population of Australia, drink 165 million cups of tea each day and over 300 languages are spoken within our boundaries. Average advertised rental prices for Great Britain: Q1 2015 112.3 1,068 112.1 1,066 111.9 1,064 111.7 1,062 111.5 1,060 111.3 1,058 111.1 1,056 111 1,054,000,000,000 3.20% 112.73% Following the peak in the average nationally advertised rent in Q4 2014, the market stabilised somewhat and as a result there has been a flattening of price changes. During Q1 2015, the average advertised rent grew by just 5 (0.54%) with the average for the period being 1,063. In a yearly comparison, average rents were 68 higher than at the beginning of 2014, in no small part to the burgeoning London rental market which has seen prices grow by over 200 year-on-year. The small change in asking rents witnessed in Q1 2015 may be a sign that the substantial increases of last year won t be repeated and the market will settle at a more natural position. The typical spring bounce is back in the market. Land`s End Cornwall UK the most westerly point of England 70,000 50,000 30,000 6.83% 2.05% 275,000 271,000 267,000 263,000 259,000 255,000 8.65% 5.52% 1 170 70 50 The number of new listings increased substantially in a quarterly comparison though this is expected following the festive season. An annual comparison provides a more accurate comparable which shows new listings have increased by 3.20% year-on-year. After dipping in the final few months of 2014, as is seasonally expected, the average asking price increased each month in 2015. By March the average asking price for Britain surpassed levels seen in 2014. At 271,089 it is now the highest on record. In an annual comparison, asking prices have increased 18,515 (6.83%). Days to sell increased at the tail end of 2014, in line with what is seasonally expected. Following the same pattern as previous years, days to sell have dipped each month in 2015. Though they have yet reached the faster timescales seen in October 2014. In an annual comparison, however, selling times are 8 days (6.30%) faster. Ultimately, with new listings up, average asking prices rising and selling times decreasing, it seems as though the market may be at the start of a period of growth. A continuation of these trends in the next two quarters, will confirm whether these positive signs are true growth or just the typical seasonal high. 4 5
City of London Residential market overview Greater London 14000 10000 19.16% 86.68% 32 boroughs make up Greater London, 12 of which create Inner London and 20 Outer London. In addition to the built-up urban area of London itself it also includes part of the Metropolitan Green Belt. The region has a population of 8,615,246 covering an area of 1,572 km2. It s one of only two regions in the UK which is landlocked. The River Thames runs through the centre of the region, in addition to several other over ground and subterranean rivers. There are several parks and open spaces in London that consist of 11 Royal Parks, including Green Park, St.James Park, Hyde Park Regent s Park and Kensington Gardens. 6000 2000 520,000 500,000 480,000 13.46% 4.46% 460,000 440,000 420,000 51.06% -1.39% 100 80 60 40 Average asking price looks set to break the 500,000 barrier in 2015. 114.3 113.8 113.4 112.9 112.5 112 111.6 111.1.7 109.8 Average advertised rental price for Greater London: Q1 2015 2,520 2,510 2,500 2,4 2,480 2,470 2,460 2,450 2,440 2,430 2,420 Asking rents fluctuated in the capital in Q1 2015, dipping by 30 in January before rising by 75 in February and tailing off again in March. This goes against the steady and consistent rises prices seen in 2014. Whilst the 222 (10.07%) growth witnessed over 12 months is the most dramatic increase in average advertised rents seen across the country, the London market at the beginning of 2014 was significantly more stable than as has been witnessed over the last year. As such, the pricing fluctuations seen in Q1 2015 may be an indicator that rents will stabilise more so than they have done previously and the capital may find an equilibrium. The number of new properties increased dramatically in January. Whilst increasing in February, they actually dipped in March going against both the national and seasonal trend. Despite this dip, the region contributed one of the highest numbers of new listings of any region in Q1 2015, something we ve come to expect from the capital. The average asking price dipped modestly in the run up to Christmas. Since then it has increased noticeably. At 497,070 the average asking price was the highest on record in March and looks set to break the 500,000 barrier in 2015. In just one year the average asking price increased 58,952 (13.46%). Selling times in the capital took place faster each month in Q1 2015. By March they were taking place in just 71 days. Whilst this is 48 days faster than the national average, it s the first time the region hasn t had the fastest selling times in Britain, falling behind the South East where selling times were at an average of just 66 days. 6 7
South West The region covers 23,800 km2 and is home to Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire and the Scilly Isles. 5,289,000 people live in the region. It has eight cities including Bath, Bristol, Exeter, Gloucester, Plymouth, Salisbury, Truro and Wells. The South West includes two National Parks (Dartmoor and Exmoor) in addition to four World Heritage Sites including the infamous Stonehenge and the Jurassic Coast. Cornwall has its own language and the region is known for the legend of King Arthur. Average advertised rental prices for South West: Q1 2015.9.2 109.6 108.9 108.6 107.6 107 18,000 5.77% 135.71% 865 860 855 850 845 840 835 The rental market in the South West righted itself somewhat after a sharp and dramatic increase in average advertised rents in Q4 2014. A decline of 19 (2.40%) between January and the end of March suggests that the high prices of last year may have been unnatural. However, as has been true across the country, the market in Q1 2015 was much stronger than it was at the same time last year. Average advertised rents in the region were 33 (4.21%) up in an annual comparison. The natural position for advertised rents in the region over the past three years is between 800 and 820. It would not be surprising to see them return to that range in 2015. 14,000 Positive signs for a healthy region Historic fishing village of Polperro, Cornwall 4.85% 1.08% 285,000 283,000 281,000 279,000 277,000 275,000-5.17% 4.76% 70 50 As with most other regions, new listings reduced in the run up to Christmas and rose throughout Q1 2015. By February, the number of new listings surpassed the levels seen in October. New listings also increased by a healthy 5.77% in March 2015 compared to March 2014. By March, the South West contributed 11,757 new listings to the market, among the highest in the country. The average asking price in the South West dipped in December. Despite rising in Q1 2015, it didn t reach levels seen in October 2014 though if the upwards trajectory continues, it won t be long. Rising asking prices alongside a higher number of new listings indicate the market is accepting these higher prices even in the face of increased competition amongst sellers - a good sign for the region. Properties took longer to sell at the end of Q4 2014 in the run up to Christmas, as is typical of the time of year. Selling times sped up throughout Q1 2015. By March, the average selling time in the South West was days, 9 days faster than the national average. The fact properties were selling in faster timescales in Q1 2015 despite a higher number of new properties on the market and rising asking prices is a positive sign for the region. A continuation of these trends in the next quarter will indicate growth. 8 9
South East White Cliffs of Dover, Dover 18,000 Residential market overview 5.97% 97.41% 14,000 The South East consists of Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey and West Sussex. It s the third largest region in the UK covering 19,096 km2 with a population of around 8,635,000. The region is known for its beautiful countryside which incorporates the North Downs, the Chiltern Hills and two national parks including the New Forest and the South Downs. The River Thames runs through the South East and it also features several beaches. 354,000 7.48% 2.26% 35 350,000 348,000 34 344,000 34 340,000-13.16% -14.29% 70 50 Selling times outpace Greater London for the first time. 114.5 113.6 112.7 111.8.9 109.1 108.2 107.3 Average advertised rental prices for South East: Q1 2015 1,270 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,1 Average advertised rents grew by 58 in Q1 2015. After the unexpected decline in Q4 2014, the market has shown signs of returning to growth and it would not be unexpected for the trend of the last year to be repeated as the region continues to improve in tandem with London. Advertised rents ended the period at 1,259, over 87 in excess of the same quarter of 12 months prior. Despite not growing to the same degree as the market in the capital, the South East was one of the most consistent regions in the country in Q1 2015 and the general trend for the market was one of steady growth. Average rents improved by over 100 in a yearly comparison, a pattern which could very well be repeated. The number of new properties increased substantially in January and then rose more modestly each month in Q1 2015. By March the region contributed 14,928 properties to the market, more than any other region. In line with the national and seasonal trend the average asking price dipped in Q4 2014. Despite this seasonal dip, the average asking price rose each month in Q1 2015, surpassing the level seen in October, breaking the 350,000 mark in March to reach a record high of 350,695. Properties took longer to sell at the end of 2014, as is expected in the run up to Christmas. Following this they took place more and more quickly in Q1 2015. By March they were selling in just 66 days, the fastest average selling time in the country. This is the first instance where selling times have been faster than in the capital. 10 11
East Anglia 115.2 Average advertised rental prices for East Anglia: Q1 2015 1,000 The average advertised rent for properties in East Anglia grew by 47 in Q1 2015. This significant increase pushed the average advertised rent closer to 1,000. 114.1 9 If the upwards trajectory of the market East Anglia is made up of Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and Peterborough. Major urban areas of East Anglia include the cities of Norwich, Cambridge and Peterborough. The region s name is a derivative of Angles a tribe that originated in northern Germany. The region is known for its flat landscape and recovered marshland, which was irrigated by the Dutch. Major rivers include the Stour, the Nene, the River Cam, and the Great Ouse. 112.9 980 111.8 970.6 960 109.5 950 108.3 940 107.2 930 0.72%.12% continues throughout the rest of 2015 it s likely asking rents will reach this milestone. Asking rents grew consistently in Q1 2015 to reach a record-high of 988. The quarterly growth is significant as it s the first time the average asking rent increased so much in the first quarter of the year. Some levelling of asking rents should be expected but the general trend appears to be one of growth. 14,000 The number of new properties coming to the market increased substantially in January and then rose modestly throughout the rest of Q1 2015. In an annual comparison, the number of new listings increased by a minor 0.72%. In line with the national trend the 8.03% 1.47% average asking price dipped at the end of 2014 and increased in Q1 2015. The 294,000 2,000 28 28 278,000 rise in the average asking price was steeper than in most other regions and increased in a yearly comparison by 21,279 (8.03%), one of the highest annual increases of any region. At 286,394, the average asking price is the 274,000 highest on record for East Anglia. 270,000 After slowing down in 2014, asking times sped up quickly in 2015. By March -9.78% -2.35% they had decreased to 83 days, over a month faster than the national average. With more new listings on the market, rising asking prices and faster selling times, the market in East Anglia could be on the up. If the trends seen in Q1 2015 continue in Q2 will tell if it s really on the The region continues to be one of the strongest markets in Britain. 70 50 up or if this is just the usual spring pick up in the marketplace. Norfolk 12 13
East Midlands Derwent Dam and Reservoir, Peak District National Park, Derbyshire 14,000-3.22% 111.32% Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Nottingham, Northamptonshire, Rutland and part of Lincolnshire make up the East Midlands. It has a population of around 4,533,000 covering an area of 15,630 km2. The geographical centre of England is in Leicestershire close to the boundary between the East and West Midlands. The highest point in the region is Kinder Scout, a National Nature Reserve in the Dark Peak of the Peak District. 4.86% 0.82% 199,000 197,000 195,000 193,000 191,000 189,000 187,000-5.79% 6.54% 170 70 50 Spring pick-up in market begins. 118.9 118 117.1 116.3 115.4 114.6 113.7 112.8 112 111.1.3 Average advertised rental prices for East Midlands: Q1 2015 6 685 680 675 670 665 660 655 650 645 640 The East Midlands rental market has been punctuated by short periods of sharp growth, immediately followed by an equal decline. This commonly begins in the last quarter of the year and bottoming out in the first few months of the new year. Q1 2015 was no different as asking rents reached a high of 6 in December 2014 then dropped by 37 (6.45%). Despite short-term price changes, average rents improved by 14 in a yearly comparison. This is a good reflection that the market remained stable in the long term. Mirroring the national trend, the number of new listings increased each month in Q1 2015. This is typical at the beginning of a new year. In an annual comparison, however the number of new listings dipped 3.22%, one of just a few regions to experience this trend. The average asking price dipped in November and December as is expected at the time of year. Whilst it increased in January and March of Q1 2015, it dipped in February. Despite February s minor setback, the average asking price increased a healthy 9,440 (4.86%) in an annual comparison. Properties took longer to sell at the end of 2014. Although sales took place faster in Q1 2015 ending the quarter at 114 days, they didn t quite take place as quickly as in 2014. In a yearly comparison, however, sales took place 7 days (5.79%) faster in March 2015. 14 15
West Midlands The West Midlands, incorporates Britain s second city, Birmingham in addition to Wolverhampton and the towns of Coventry, Dudley, Solihull, Walsall and West Bromwich. It has a population of 2,738,100 and covers and an area of 2 km2. The region is varied from thriving rural areas to the UNESCO World Heritage site, the Ironbridge Gorge and several Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Wye Valley, the Shropshire Hills, Cannock Chase, Malvern Hills and the Cotswolds. It s also one of only two regions in the UK which is landlocked. Average advertised rental prices for West Midlands: Q1 2015 115.2 1,000 114.1 9 112.9 980 111.8 970.6 960 109.5 950 108.3 940 107.2 930-2.71% 119.41% 14,000 4.09% 1.42% 2 208,000 20 204,000 20 200,000 198,000 170-5.38% 10.81% Residential market overview Following the increase in advertised rents during Q4 2014, advertised rents declined more steadily by a moderate 13 (2.05%) in Q1 2015. This could be an indication that the market is set to return to its more natural position of the 640 to 680 average advertised rent. By March the average advertised rent was 710 in the West Midlands, 33 (5.18%) more expensive in a yearly comparison. As Q1 2015 was the longest period of decline seen in the region over the last three years it will be interesting to see if the market can retain a higher average asking rent. Despite increasing in Q1 2015, the number of new listings in the West Midlands are actually down in an annual comparison. This is one of the only regions to see this trend, along with the neighbouring East Midlands. The average asking price increased each month in Q1 2015 after dipping in December. By March, it had surpassed the level seen in Q4 2014, to 205,201, the highest asking price on record. The average asking price increased by 8,061 (4.09%) in an annual comparison. After rising steadily from October to December, the average selling time sped up in Q1 2015. Whilst selling times quickened, by March they still weren t taking place as fast as in November 2014. An increasing number of new listings, rising asking prices and faster selling times are signs of a market that is improving which will be confirmed if these positive trends continue in Q2 2015. 70 Early signs of a growing market. St. Michael s Cathedral, Coventry 16 17
Yorkshire & Humber Yorskshire Dales on a beautiful sunny day 14,000-1.13% 116.47% Yorkshire and Humber comprises of North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, the East Riding of Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. It has an approximated population of 5,284,000 and covers around 15,420 km2. The region features the Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Wolds in addition to the Rivers Ouse, Hill, Ure and Esk as well as lying on the North Sea. 1.65% 0.71% 17 174,000 17 170,000 168,000 210-3.23% 12.78% 1 170 70 Small growth for the region. Average advertised rental prices for Yorkshire & Humber: Q1 2015 112.7 695 121.8 6 121 685 120.1 680 119.2 675 118.4 670 117.5 665 116.6 660 115.8 655 114.9 650 Having shown significant growth in the last quarter of 2014, average rents in Yorkshire & Humber fell by 26 (4.58%) in Q1 2015. The average asking rent for the region decreased to 657 having reached a peak of around 687 in December. However, this reduction wasn t surprising following such a steep increase and indicates rents returning to a more natural position. Whilst asking rents began to decline in Q1 2015, by March, asking rents were up in a 19 yearly comparison. Despite this increase, the average asking rent in Yorkshire & Humber may fluctuate throughout 2015, continuing the region s trend of instability. Whilst the number of new listings reduced in December, the increases seen in Q1 2015 more than made up for this seasonal reduction. In a yearly comparison, however, new listings reduced but only by a modest 1.13%. The average asking price in the region dipped noticeably in Q4 2014. Whilst modest increases were seen in Q1 2015, the average asking price couldn t climb back to the level seen in October 2014. Despite this, the average asking price in the area is up 2,803 (1.65%) in an annual comparison, ultimately showing modest growth for the region. At days, the average selling time in Yorkshire and Humber was among the longest in Britain, a month faster than the national average. Selling times, however, sped up by 5 days (3.23%) in an annual comparison. 18 19
North West The North West incorporates the counties of Cheshire, Cumbria, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Merseyside. It was a population of circa 7,05. The region is the third largest in terms of population in the UK and it covers an area of 14,165 km2. The region includes three national parks, the Lake District, parts of both the Peak district and the Yorkshire Dales in addition to three Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. Average advertised rental prices for North West: Q1 2015 108.3 107.5 106.7 105.8 105 104.2 18,000 14,000-0.05% 119.71% 660 655 650 645 640 635 Average advertised rents in the North West in Q1 2015 were 639, a decrease of 7, or 1.16% from the end of last year. Having improved by nearly 10 throughout January, the market fell away again in February and March eroding the growth seen in Q4 2014. Having reached a two year high in Q4 2014, the loss of around 15 from the average advertised rent between February and the end of March means they returned to a similar position to Q1 2014. Whilst the market was 6 (1.03%) better off than at that time, this downturn could indicate the growth of the last 12 months served only to right the preceding decline. 1.18% 0.45% 179,000 177,000 175,000 173,000 171,000 1 170-4.43% 12.69% After decreasing each month in Q4 2014, the number of new listings in the North West rose each month in Q1 2015. By March, 13,097 new listings were on the market, one of the highest contributors of new listings in Britain, surpassed only by two strongest markets Greater London and the South East. The average asking price reduced noticeably in Q4 2014. Instead of increasing in Q1 2015 in line with most other regions, the average asking price decreased slightly in February. Despite these reductions, the average asking price rose in March to 177,051, ending the quarter on a more positive note. Days to sell increased in the latter half of 2014. Whilst timescales reduced slightly in Q1 2015, this way by just 3 days. Properties, however, sold 7 days (4.43%) faster in an annual comparison, ultimately showing progress. Modest advancements for the region. Wastwater, Cumbria 20 21
River Tyne, Newcastle 1.06% 116.18% 8,000 4,000 0-0.40% -0.10% 155,000 153,000 151,000 North East The North East covers County Durham, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear and part of Teesside. The total population of the North East is around 2,597,000 covering an area of 8,592 km2. There are three cities in the region, Newcastle upon Tyne, Sunderland and Durham. The region is known for the natural beauty of its coastline, Northumberland National Park and a section of the Pennines. It also houses the World Heritage Sites of Durham Cathedral, Durham Castle and Hadrian s Wall. Roman archaeology can be seen throughout the region. 149,000-6.63% 6.29% 210 1 170 Asking rents dip in December. 111.7.1 108.5 107 105.4 103.8 102.2 Average advertised rental prices for North East: Q1 2015 710 700 6 680 670 660 650 The market in the North East often experiences short periods of price increases, followed by sharp decreases. As such, average advertised rents in the region are often inconsistent. The nominal growth of 14 over the last 12 months, however, demonstrates that rents remain generally stable in the long-term. Average advertised rents fell by 38 (6.00%) during Q1 2015, which was unsurprising given the sharp rise in prices in December 2014. Average rents for the period settled at 666, which is where the natural position of the market is expected to sit. There is no indication that the fluctuating of average asking rents will subside during the coming year but the market ultimately returns to its natural average. In line with the national and seasonal trend, the number of new listings increased significantly in Q1 2015 following the typical Christmas dip in the market. Despite increasing by 116% in a quarterly comparison, the North East saw the lowest number of new listings of any region. In a yearly comparison, however, new listings have increased by a modest 1.06%. The average asking price in the North East fluctuated in Q1 2015. In line with the national and seasonal trend, it dipped at the end of 2014. Going against the national trend, however, it decreased in February after increasing in January. This indicated sellers higher asking prices weren t accepted in the area. By the end of Q1 2015, the average asking price in the North East was 152,800. Properties took longer to sell in the North East at the tail end of 2014 in line with the national trend. Whilst selling times have become faster throughout 2015 so far, by March they were still taking 50 days longer than the national average. In an annual comparison, however, properties were selling 12 days (6.63%) faster. 22 23
Scotland Scotland has a population of around 5,313,600 covering an area of 78,387 km2. Edinburgh is the country s capital and second largest city. Glasgow takes the title of the largest city and Aberdeen is the third largest. Scotland consists of the mainland in addition to the archipelagos of Orkney and Shetland which were obtained from Norway in the 15th Century. Scotland s longest river is the River Tay and its highest point is the summit of Ben Nevis in Lochaber. Average advertised rental prices for Scotland: Q1 2015 115.4 770 114.7 765 113.9 760 113.2 755 112.4 750 111.7 745.9 740.2 735 109.4 730 108.7 725 1.37% 105.30% 6.19% 2.68% 169,000 167,000 165,000 163,000 161,000 159,000 157,000 155,000 210 1 170-14.44% 11.59% The Scottish rental market recently witnessed a period of sustained growth, similar to that of the beginning of last year in which advertised rents grew by 33, equivalent to 4.%. The Scottish market was the third best performing region in Britain in Q1 2015. Having reached their lowest position in December 2013, 2014 saw the market grow substantially before rents stabilised in Q4 2014. The average rent in the region peaked at 765. This is 64 higher in an annual comparison. New listings dropped each month in Q4 2014 and increased throughout Q1 2015 in line with the national and seasonal trend. By March the number of new listings surpassed the level seen in October. In an annual comparison new listings were up 1.37%, a small advancement for the region. The average asking price in the region went against the national trend of increasing each month and instead wavered throughout Q4 2014. In Q1 2015, it rose sharply each month. By March the average asking price in Scotland was 167,144, a healthy 9,742 (6.19%) higher in an annual comparison and the highest Scotland has seen for six years. A rising asking price is a positive sign set against the background of increased competition amongst sellers with more new properties coming to the market each month. Average days to sell increased from 117 days in October to around 156 days in January and stayed at this level throughout the rest of Q1 2015. Longer selling times indicate the market may not have fully accepted increasing asking prices. Highest asking price for six years. View from Calton Hill, Edinburgh 24 25
Wales Mountains and lakes of Snowdonia Residential market overview 4.51% 141.54% 19.68% -53.79% Wales covers a geographical area that s 20,779 km2 and has a population of 3,063,456. It s known for its mountainous countryside which was created during the last ice age. The biggest mountains in the area lie in Snowdonia. Over 50 islands surround the Welsh mainland. Wales has three national parks: the Brecon Beacons, the Pembrokeshire Coast and Snowdonia. It also has five Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty which are made up of Anglesey, the Clwydian Range, Dee Valley, the Gower Peninsula and Wye Valley. 185,000 0.84% 0.33% 183,000 181,000 179,000 177,000 175,000-7.53% 13.16% 210 1 170 Average asking price reaches five-year high. 121.4 119.8 118.1 116.5 114.9 113.3 111.6 Average advertised rental prices for Wales: Q1 2015 750 740 730 720 710 700 6 680 Wales was the poorest performing region in Q1 2015 as average advertised rents fell by 55, equivalent to 8.%. The 85 rise seen in Q4 2014 began to reverse as asking rents dipped and started to return to the market s more natural position of around the 660 mark. The Welsh rental market was stronger in a yearly comparison with average rents 30, or 4.83% higher at 689. The market is subject to sharp increases followed by steady reductions and this pattern was repeated in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. New listings decreased throughout Q4 2014 and increased in Q1 2015, more than making up for the reductions in late 2014. Whilst this is seasonally typical, new listings are up a healthy 4.51% on an annual comparison. The average asking price dipped from 180,921 in October 2014 to approximately 179,500 and stayed around this level for the whole of Q1 2015. The average asking price held strong in the face of increased competition amongst sellers with new listings rising each month, a sign of strength for the region. Properties took longer to sell at the end of Q4 2014 and stayed around 172 days for the whole of Q1 2015, one of the longest selling times in Britain. In an annual comparison, however, selling times sped up by a noticeable 14 days (7.53%). 26 27
Methodology Our methodology has been formulated in conjunction with economic research academics. It is based on the idea that weightings and conditions create a better representation of the market, whilst preventing outlying values from skewing the data. Our data The Move with Us Rental Index is based on a weekly snapshot of over,000 rental properties advertised on major portals across eleven regions in the UK. This allows us to base our analysis on upwards of 7.8 million data points annually, one of the largest samples available for a rental index. Using a larger and more comprehensive data set ensures a better representation of British rental markets. Calculating the average The mean is the most reliable method of calculating average prices though it can be distorted by outlying data. To prevent this, and ensure an accurate average, we have introduced several filters to eliminate noise from the data. We have done this by: Removing properties priced within the highest and lowest 1% of the dataset. Eliminating properties that have been on market for more than 20 weeks. This ensures that these properties are not over-represented. Introducing a moving average function which takes into account past and present averages to create a more representative trend. Weighting Our methodology breaks the sample down into different property types recording both the number and average rent advertised for each of these. Next we weight the rental values for each region and type using official property surveys from the English, Welsh and Scottish governments. This prevents skewing due to over-representation of certain areas in our own dataset. We then run our index against a base date of 4 July, 2011. Methodology The Move with Us Residential Market Review is based on a monthly analysis of over 750,000 on market property instructions advertised across 11 regions in Britain. This data represents the majority of property for sale on the open market in Britain at any given time. The Market Review has been produced to provide an insight for residential property professionals who are looking for leading indicators into the British housing market. It is broken down into House Price Index (HPI) regions and the overview on each area should provide some valuable commentary on how each market is trending. A summary of how prices have changed in the past year is also provided for context. The analysis uses the following three measures to provide insight into market movement: Number of new listings The number of new listings represents the volume of properties coming to market each month and highlights changes in supply regionally and nationally. Average asking price The average asking price is Britain s only independent forward market indicator as it is based on asking price data which means the index can provide insights into price movements around five months ahead of mortgage completion and actual sales data. This measure is calculated using a weighting system based on the DCLG (formally ODPM) Survey of English Housing Stock and properties above 1,000,000 and below 20,000 are excluded from the calculations. The average house price data is also published as the Home.co.uk Asking Price Index (HAPI) in association with Calnea Analytics. Average days to sell The average days to sell represents the median number of days needed for all vendors to sell a residential property in the wider market from when it is first listed on market until it is Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC). The number of days taken to sell a property will lengthen in a more competitive market, as buyers have a greater choice, and take more time in decision making. Statistics for over 3,400 property sales completed by Move with Us are also included for comparison to provide insight into how quickly buyers purchase well priced second hand corporate stock. Residential market overview Contributors Move with Us Move with Us are recognised experts in UK residential property. They provide a broad range of services to help consumers and businesses value, manage and sell their properties. They offer services to landlords from centralised property management and data analysis, right through to advisory on acquisition and property disposal. These services are designed to optimise yield and manage risk across any size of rental property portfolio. Founded in 1997, they have become one of the largest estate agency networks, with around 1,200 branches in the UK, ensuring that they have access to the best local knowledge. Underpinning the Move with Us service is an evidence based approach. They look to support their recommendations with facts from published sources and opinions from the local experts on the high street. This is complemented by the experience and capability of their central teams of property managers. Together, these elements deliver the assurance and performance demanded by their clients. For further information on the services offered by Move with Us go to www.movewithus.co.uk. Home.co.uk Established in 1996, Home.co.uk has built the UK s largest and most comprehensive database of residential property in the UK, providing users with detailed analysis of house prices, property sales and rental data. The data supplied by Home.co.uk takes into consideration approximately,000 properties a week which is used to analyse asking prices, the average time on market and stock levels for rented property. Home.co.uk s search engine technology indexes and collates more property sales and rental data than any other website. For more information on our methodology, please contact info@movewithus.co.uk. 28 29
01480 750 007 movewithus.co.uk info@movewithus.co.uk @movewithus