Maintenance Status & Asset Values A Lessor s Perspective Maintenance Cost Conference Presented By: Shannon Ackert Vice President, Commercial Operations Jackson Square Aviation October 20, 2011
Agenda 1. Factors Influencing Aircraft Values 2. Maintenance Status 3. Aircraft Values from an Appraiser s Perspective 4. Age and Value Performance 5. Market Conditions and Value Performance 6. Conclusions IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 2
1. Factors Influencing Aircraft Values Broadly speaking, the factors that influence aircraft values be assigned into the following categories: A. Manufacture B. Market C. Regulatory Jurisdiction D. Aircraft Specific IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 3
1. Factors Influencing Aircraft Values A. Manufacture i. Pricing Strategy ; if OEM deep discounts persists, values will not return to their historical levels. ii. Production Rate ; high production rates can potentially create an oversupply & impair current values. iii. Manufacture Status ; demise of an OEM often contribute to ailing values of existing aircraft. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 4
1. Factors Influencing Aircraft Values B. Market Conditions i. Market Outlook ; forecast of air traffic volumes and airplane demand strong conditions translate into higher traffic growth and vice versa. ii. Airline Profits ; strong correlation between profits & aircraft values (Profits values ) C. Regulatory Jurisdiction i. Age Curfew ; many countries now have regulations on the maximum age an aircraft can have, which can have a negative impact on aircraft values. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 5
1. Factors Influencing Aircraft Values D. Aircraft Specific i. Age ; less stable as aircraft ages ii. Liquidity ; customer base & geographical distribution iii. Production Cycle ; long production runs are good, and early & late stages cycles are worse iv. Specification ; weight, thrust, cabin configuration, winglets, and technology features v. Family Variants ; aircraft families (737NG & A320) provide fleet & capacity planning flexibility. vi. Operating Economics ; payload, range, fuel burn, etc. vii. Secondary Market ; freighter conversions & part outs viii. Maintenance Status IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 6
2. Maintenance Status : User Context The context in which maintenance status is used depends on whom the constituents are. There are two: A. Technical B. Financial IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 7
2. Maintenance Status : User Context A. To technical constituents, maintenance status generally denotes an interval reference (i.e. FH, FC, calendar months, etc.) that is used to quantify where an event is in its maintenance cycle. Example interval reference: an engine s maintenance status is stated as having : 30,000 FH TSN / 15,000 FC TSN 10,000 FH TSLSV / 5,000 FC CSLSV IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 8
2. Maintenance Status : User Context B. To financial constituents, maintenance status generally denotes a value reference that is directly correlated to the life remaining of certain high cost maintenance events. Example value reference: an aircraft s maintenance status is stated as being at : Half life Above or Below half life Full life IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 9
2. Maintenance Status : Maintenance Events Aircraft market values are adjusted for deviations in the maintenance status of high cost maintenance events consisting of: i. Airframe Heavy Structural Inspections ii. Landing Gear Overhauls iii. Engine Performance Restoration iv. Engine LLP Replacement v. APU Performance Restoration IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 10
2. Maintenance Status : Maintenance Utility Maintenance status is used to quantify, in whole of part, the value of maintenance utility remaining. The key to quantifying maintenance status lies in making accurate assessment as to: A. Where each maintenance event is relative to their last and next shop visit, and B. What percentage of its next / upcoming shop visit cost is remaining. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 11
2. Maintenance Status : Utility Profiles A. Hard time maintenance events that generally have 100% of their values decline to zero & subsequently recapitalized to full value after each check. Calendar Based Events: i. Airframe HSI ii. LG Overhaul 100% 50% 0% Hart time Utility Curve Full life Half life 1 Hard Time Maintenance Utility Profile EIS 1 st SV 2nd SV 3rd SV IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 12
2. Maintenance Status : Utility Profiles B. Quasi Hard time applicable to engine LLPs whereby a portion of their hard time lives are discarded, i.e. generally 5% 15% depending on the engine type. Exception: i. Engine LLPs LLPs are replaced with stub lives remaining 100% 50% 0% Hart time Utility Curve LLP Green Time 1 Hard Time Maintenance Utility Profile Full life Half life EIS 1 st SV 2nd SV 3rd SV IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 13
2. Maintenance Status : Utility Profiles C. Condition monitor maintenance events that rarely have 100% of maintenance consumed, and the event s workscope often only partially restores the value lost. OC / CM Based Events: i. Engine PR ii. APR PR 100% 50% 0% EIS Condition Monitor Utility Curve First SV Second SV Third SV Full life Half life IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 14
2. Maintenance Status : Financier Terms Aircraft appraisers use, as a baseline reference, two industry standard terms to represent an aircraft s maintenance status: A. Full life the full life status implies each major maintenance event has just been fully restored to zero time condition. B. Half life the half life status implies that each major maintenance event is half way between overhaul / restoration. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 15
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Concepts Example : 737 800 Full & Half life Valuations Phase : First Run 737 800 CFM56 7B26/3 26,300 lbs First Run Full & Half Life Values Full Life Half Life Full life Intervals Half life Intervals Equipment Event Units Value $ Value $ Mo FH FC Mo FH FC Airframe 8YR SI 1 780,000 390,000 96 48 Landing Gear Gear Ovhl 1 350,000 175,000 120 18,000 60 APU APU Rest 1 250,000 125,000 7,500 3,750 Eng Modules Eng Rest 2 4,470,000 2,235,000 23,625 13,500 11,813 6,750 Eng LLPs Eng LLP 2 4,400,000 2,200,000 23,000 11,500 Totals 10,250,000 5,125,000 IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 16
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Concepts Adjustment from half life reflects deviations from halflife. The deviations ($) are either positive or negative depending on the status of the maintenance event. Adjustment from Half life ($) = (% Life Remaining 50%) * (Mtx Event Cost) Example A :Half life Calculation 737 800 / 8 Yr SI Check 8 Year Interval = 96 months 8 Year Life Remaining= 24 months 8 Year SI Cost = $780,000 Adjustment from Half life ($) = (25% 50%) * $780,000 = ($195,000) IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 17
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Concepts Example A : Adjustment from half life graphical Illustration: 100% Consumption Rate = $8,125 / Mo Deviations from Half life 75% $195,000 Factored as a notional credit if above half life 50% Half life Assumes no $ Adjustment 25% ($195,000) Factored as a notional offset if below half life 0% 24 Mo 48 Mo 72 Mo 96 Mo IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 18
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Concepts Example B : Half life Calculation 2006 Build 737 800 Aircraft AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE STATUS AS OF : 15 Jul 11 Aircraft : 737 800 TSN CSN Date Mfg : 15 Jul 05 Aircraft: 21,000 FH 12,000 FC Eng Pos 1: 21,000 FH 12,000 FC Utilization: 3,500 FH 2,000 FC Eng Pos 2: 21,000 FH 12,000 FC ADJUSTMENT FROM HALF TIME CALCULATION Mtx Mtx Mtx Mtx Mtx Interval Life Remaining Adjust From Equipment Event Phase Cost $ Interval Remain % Total % 1/2 Time 1/2 Time $ Airframe 8YR SI First Run 780,000 96 Mo 24 Mo 25.0% 25.0% (195,000) Landing Gear Overhaul 350,000 120 Mo 72 Mo 40.0% 10.0% (35,000) APU Perf Rest 250,000 7,500 APU FH 3,750 APU FH 50.0% 0.0% 0 Engine Position 1 Perf Rest First Run 2,235,000 13,500 FC 1,500 FC 11.1% 38.9% (869,167) Engine Position 1 LLP Replace 2,200,000 Limiter 47.4% 2.6% (58,000) Engine Position 2 Perf Rest First Run 2,235,000 13,500 FC 1,500 FC 11.1% 38.9% (869,167) Engine Position 2 LLP Replace 2,200,000 Limiter 47.4% 2.6% (58,000) Half Life Adjustment : 10,250,000 (2,084,333) IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 19
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Concepts Example B : Adjustment from half life graphical Illustration: Aircraft : B737 800 Engine : CFM56 7B26 Derate : 10% Operation : 3,500 FH 2,000 FC 1.7 FH:FC 100% 75% Consumption Rate = $125,000 / Mo Deviation from Half life ENG SV 1 50% 25% ( $2,084,333 ) 0% APU SV1 APU SV2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 20
2. Maintenance Status : Valuation Perspective In the real world it is common to make financial adjustments to account for both an aircraft s condition and maintenance status. Condition tends to be a judgment call if an aircraft has scab patches, is dirty, dripping fluids, and has a lot of deferred maintenance items, it is not uncommon to assign a lower value to this aircraft. In most cases however, an aircraft s condition, as opposed to its maintenance status, would not warrant a significant change in an appraiser s standard value opinion. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 21
3. Aircraft Values : Appraisal Terms & Concepts The standard aircraft value terms used by investors & appraisers are defined by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT). Key values are : A. Base Market Value B. Current Market Value C. Adjusted Market Value D. Future Base Value A. Base Market Value represents the opinion of the value of a single aircraft in a single arms length transaction in a balanced market, unaffected by short term events. Base value assumes an aircraft s maintenance status is at half life. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 22
3. Aircraft Values : Appraisal Terms & Concepts B. Current Market Value represents an appraiser s opinion of the most likely trading price that may be generated for a single asset under market conditions that exist at that time. Current market value assumes an aircraft s maintenance status is at half life. Example: Base Value Current Market Value CMV = BV : market conditions are in equilibrium. CMV > BV : market conditions are tending to support higher prices. CMV < BV : market conditions are tending to support lower prices. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 23
3. Aircraft Values : Appraisal Terms & Concepts C. Adjusted Market Value indicates that the market or base value of the aircraft has been adjusted from half life to account for the actual maintenance status: Adjusted Market Value ($) = Market Value + Adjustment from Half life Base Value = $31,500,000 Half life Adjustment = ($2,084,333) Adjusted BV = $29,415,667 Current Market Value = $32,700,000 Half life Adjustment = ($2,084,333) Adjusted CMV = $30,615,667 IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 24
3. Aircraft Values : Appraisal Terms & Concepts D. Future Base Value is the appraiser s forecast of future aircraft values from an initial starting point that is generally its base value. Age IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 25
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Age implications to maintenance status; as the aircraft ages so does it s corresponding Direct Maintenance Costs (DMC). The aging process can be categorized into maintenance phases: First run Phase All maintenance events have yet To occasion their first shop visit Mature run Phase Begins after the newness phase and runs through the first maintenance cycle. Aging run Phase Begins after the end of the first maintenance cycle when the effects of airframe age result in higher non routine maintenance costs. EIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Year of Operation IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 26
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Example : 737NG Maintenance phases : 3% annual inflation First run Phase Mature run Phase Aging run Phase IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 27
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Age implications to aircraft values; as the aircraft ages it s value decreases and becomes more volatile. The aging process can be categorized into value phases: 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% New / In production Aircraft Aging / Out of Production Aircraft Relative Volatility CMV as a % BV Year of Operation IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 28
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Influence of Age & Maintenance Status on Aircraft Values As an aircraft ages, maintenance accounts for a higher proportion of the aircraft s total value IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 29
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts As the aircraft ages the proportion of maintenance status value tends to be largely concentrated in the engines. Percentage of Original Aircraft Value 100% 90% 80% AIRFRAME 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% ENGINE 10% 0% 0 Time Years 20 IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 30
4. Age & Value Performance : General Rule Often, if an aircraft s overall maintenance status is determined to be: i. Above half life buyers rarely pay seller dollarfor dollar for the premium above half life ii. Below half life buyers will demand dollar fordollar impairment for the value below half life. And hence the importance of maintenance status forecasting IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 31
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Maintenance Status Forecasting Aircraft : B737 800 Engine : CFM56 7B26 Derate : 10% Operation : 3,500 FH 1,750 FC 2.0 FH:FC IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 32
4. Age & Value Performance : Terms & Concepts Theoretical Optimal Aircraft Trading Period Aircraft : B737 800 Engine : CFM56 7B26 Derate : 10% Operation : 3,500 FH 1,750 FC 2.0 FH:FC Optimal Trading Period Optimal Trading Period Optimal Trading Period IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 33
5. Market Conditions & Value Performance In a balanced market, an aircraft sold in half life assumes no profit or loss results from maintenance status. In reality both aircraft and maintenance status values can swing dramatically depending on supply & demand. Market Mtx Status Comments Weak Balanced Strong Above Half life Above Half life Above Half life Likelihood of no premium for higher levels of maintenance status Likelihood of a premium but not full dollar for dollar Likelihood of a premium but not full dollar for dollar Below Half life Below Half life Below Half life Likelihood of significant discount for lower levels of maintenance status Likelihood of a discount ranging as high as full dollar for dollar Likelihood of minimal discount for lower levels of maintenance status IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 34
6. Conclusions i. The value of maintenance status is rarely constant; volatility of markets inherently translates into volatility of both aircraft & maintenance status valuation. ii. After an aircraft reaches a certain age the main differentiator between specific aircraft of the same vintage will often be the value in their maintenance status. iii. Obtaining dollar for dollar premium for maintenance status is rarely achieved, therefore traders should account for an optimal trading period that considers the age of the aircraft as well as the status of major maintenance events. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 35
6. Conclusions Continued iv. Whereas an airframe gradually deteriorates over time, appropriate maintenance can repetitively restore an engine to a near new condition and value. Therefore, engine maintenance status needs to be carefully monitored given its influence on aircraft market values. v. In forecasting maintenance status, the operational profile, airframe age, and inflation rate should be considered as an integral part of the methodologies used to assess the value of maintenance. IATA Maintenance Cost Conference, Singapore October 20 th, 2011 36