DOHA, QATAR, 19 APRIL 212 TRADE IN SERVICES: NEW GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES TOURISM AS AN INTERNATIONALLY TRADED SERVICE Marcio Favilla L. de Paula Executive Director for Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
UNCTAD XIII Global Services Forum Trade in Services: New Growth Opportunities Tourism as an Int lly Traded Service Doha, Qatar 19 April 212 Márcio Favilla L. de Paula Executive Director for Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 22 and 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1.8 bn 1, 75 5 1 bn 1.4 bn 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year 12 1 1 8 6 4 2 3 1 9 4 3 9 7 6 7 9 3 4 4 6 5 3 4 8 3 6 6 7 2 7 Average annual growth 21 23 : 3.3% -2-4 -6-2 Average annual growth Average annual growth 198 1995: 4.4% 1995 21: 3.9% 198/'79 1985/'84 199/'89 1995/'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29-4 21-22 22-23 3.8 % 2.9% source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 8 7 Average growth 21 23 : +43 mn 6 56 58 49 45 45 4 2-2 8 39 33 3 28 27 25 26 22 21 22 2 2 2 13 15 16 1 4-2 -1-11 Average growth Average growth 198 1995: +17 mn 1995 21: +28 mn 21-22 22-23 +42 mn + 45 mn -4 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23-35 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Emerging economies destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 1, International Tourist Arrivals, million emerging economies 1,37 mn 75 5 25 523 mn 457 mn 552 mn 54 mn advanced economies 772 mn 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Middle East Africa 3% 3% Europe 63% Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 (277 mn) Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Middle East 6% Africa 5% Americas 16% 21 (94 mn) Asia and the Pacific 22% Americas 14% 23 (1.8 bn) Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 53 mn 156 mn 216 mn International Tourist Arrivals, million Europe 744 mn Asia and the Pacific 535 mn 248 mn Americas Middle East 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 55 mn 149 mn 5 mn 134 mn Africa
International tourist arrivals growth per subregion 1995-21 and 21-23 12. 1.5 1. 1995-21 21-23 1995-21 average annual growth (%) 21-23 average annual growth (%) 8. 7.5 7.7 6.6 6.1 6.2 6. 5.9 6. 5.8 5.2 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4. 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2. 2.1 2. 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 3.9% 3.3%. South Asia West and Central Africa East Africa Central America South-East Asia North-East Asia South America North Africa Middle East Southern Africa Central/Eastern Europe Oceania Southern/Mediter. Eu. Caribbean Western Europe Northern Europe North America
One-Page Tourism Towards 23 Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (198 21) to 3.3% (21 23), as a result of four factors: The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades; established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunities, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources. Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximizing social and economic benefits and minimizing negative impacts. Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Tourism Development Policy (NTA) Marketing Strategy (NTO) Planning/Governance Infrastructure develop. Legal framework Facilitation (visa, entry) Investment Incentives/taxation Human resources Quality standards Marketing Product development Operational marketing Distribution (place) Segmentation Promotion Positioning Branding
1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Tourism GDP in the T.2 G.2 Economies Countries 8,2 6,2 6,4 4,2 3,6 3,8 3,2 2,6 2,8 2,9 3, 2,5 1,9 1,9 1,5 2,7 (%) Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain UK USA
Tourism Direct Employment in the T.2 Economies Tourism Direct Employment in the G.2 15 14,2 13 11 9 7 5 3 9,6 6,2 6,7 6,6 4,5 4,7 4,6 4,3 5,1 3,6 2,3 3, 3,5 3,7 2,9 2, 1-1 Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain UK USA (%) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO); 212
Tourism in the Trade Balance of the G.2 Tourism in the Trade Balance of the T.2 Economies 21 (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Share in Exports of Goods & Services (%) Share in Exports of Services (%) 68 43 45 41 27 29 32 3 19 21 7 12 3 4 3 7 12 3 4 4 7 11 17 2 3 4 3 3 81 74 72 63 48 31 1 16 16 17 6 9 Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Russian Fed. Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain Turkey UK USA Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO); 212
Tourism in the Trade Balance of the T.2 Economies (%) Tourism in the Trade Balance of 31 LDC 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 89 1 4 1 Angola Bangladesh 15 68 Benin Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO); 212 Share in Exports of Goods & Services (% ) Share in Exports of Services (% ) 87 1 11 Bhutan 69 Burkina Faso 2 3 Burundi 28/21 24 84 Cambodia 7 21 Cent. Af. Rep 4 5 Djibouti 33 59 Ethiopia 15 42 Gambia 22 87 Guinea-Bissau 34 83 Haiti 19 69 72 Laos 4 Lesotho 27 45 Liberia
Tourism in the Trade Balance of the T.2 Economies (%) Tourism in the Trade Balance of 31 LDC 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 55 9 8 Mali Share in Exports of Goods & Services (%) Share in Exports of Services (%) 36 Mozambique 24 56 Nepal 41 64 Rwanda 64 Samoa 78 8 28/21 43 Sao Tome and Principe 18 49 Senegal 6 43 Sierra Leone 22 72 Solomon Islands 1 37 Sudan 2 61 Tanzania 6 25 Togo 22 58 Uganda 13 73 Yemen 2 4 Zambia Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO); 212
UNCTAD XIII Global Services Forum Thank you very much for your attention! Trade in Services: New Growth Opportunities Doha, Qatar 19 April 212 World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org
Air transport will slightly increase market share International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, 939 mn, 52% by air 75 5 481 mn, 51% over surface 87 mn, 48% 25 459 mn, 49% 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 1 9 8 81% 79% 7 within same region 6 5 4 3 19% between regions 21% 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Opportunities and challenges: how to make it possible Key areas that mark the future: For many countries tourism represents a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of jobs and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned In order to tap this potential both in advanced and emerging economies, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc.