Urban Challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean: The importance of transport

Urban Challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean: The importance of transport Joseluis Samaniego Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean - ECLAC Working Session 5: Climate innovation in the transport sector in LAC Latin America & Caribbean Climate Week 2018 August 21, 2018, Montevideo, Uruguay

1 Some traits of the region

Latin America and the Caribbean: population of urban and rural areas, 2014 (In millions and percentages) Source: Own elaboration based on data of United Nation, Department of Economic and Social Affairs & Population Division (2014), «World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 revision».

Urba patter s Despite the heterogeneity of cities, there are trends: A double transition: the urban and demographic transition; A high economic, population and administrative concentration in few and large metropolitan areas; An increase in the economic and population importance of intermediate cities; 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Latin America and the Caribbean, Distribution of the population by type of city (in percentage) 0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: ECLAC Social Panorama 2014 Menos de 300 000 300 000 a 500 000 500 000 a 1 millón 1 a 5 millones 5 a 10 millones 10 millones o más

The style of development in Latin America produces territorial concentration, population and production. Latin America: 8 main metropolitan areas (or territorial entities that contain them) Weight of area, population and GDP (percentages, circa 2010) Latin America and the Caribbean exhibit the highest levels of spatial concentration on the planet, both in terms of population and economic production. In some cases, the relative weight of GDP is close to or greater than 50% of the country's total. Average labor productivity of selected territorial areas or entities and the rest of the country, 2010 (country index = 100) Area o entidad territorial principal Resto país 144 143 The high degree of concentration is associated in part with the high levels of average productivity of the central metropolitan areas, which are significantly higher than the rest of each country. 126 123 115 112 117 120 89 89 92 95 95 87 78 67 Panamá Argentina Chile Perú Colombia Brasil México Ecuador

2 Pressures associated with increasing income, the pattern of consumption and land use

Cities in the region exceed air pollution standards Latin America (selected cities): Concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5, 2014. (In micrograms per cubic meter) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Health Organization (WHO), Ambient Air Pollution Database, May 2014. a Data are for La Paz, Medellín, and Rio de Janeiro in 2010; San Salvador, Santiago, Lima, Mexico City, Monterrey, San José and Caracas in 2011; Guatemala City, Bogota, Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Montevideo and Quito in 2012; and Tegucigalpa up to 2013. Air quality standards are those of the European Union and WHO.

Spending on fuels 10 Share of total household expenditure accounted for by expenditure on petrol, diesel fuel and biodiesel fuel and share of total expenditure on petrol, diesel fuel and biodiesel fuel for each income quintile (Percentages) 90 9 80 8 70 7 6 5 4 3 60 50 40 30 2 20 1 10 0 I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V Argentina (2005) Brasil (2008) Chile (2007) Colombia (2007) Costa Rica (2004) Como proporción en el gasto total del hogar (eje izquierdo) El Salvador (2006) México (2012) Nicaragua (2005) Uruguay (2005) Como proporción en el gasto total en combustibles para transporte (eje derecho) 0 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of household expenditure surveys. los países.

Motorization Motorization rate, 2005 and 2015 (Vehicles in use per 1,000 inhabitants) 316 179 139 95 72 41 250 208 149 123 224 149 153 140 111 109 90 67 41 30 115 69 1618 297 199 46 79 171 98 98 70 78 50 280 160 145 122 2005 2015 Source : Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.

Tasa de motorización (Vehículos a motor /1000 personas) Motorization with a very unfavorable potential trajectory Relationship between the rate of motor vehicle use and per capita GDP in developed countries and Latin American countries, 2000-2011 (Motor vehicles per 1,000 persons and PPP dollars at constant 2011 prices) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 América Latina Costa Rica Brasil Honduras Rep. Dominicana Bolivia El Salvador Panamá Nicaragua Colombia Perú México Uruguay Chile Corea Estados Unidos Italia Australia Japón Francia Canadá Austria España Alemania Países Bajos Suiza Reino Unido Suecia Irlanda Dinamarca Noruega 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 PIB per cápita (PPP, dólares constantes de 2011) Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México Nicaragua Panamá Perú Rep. Dominicana Uruguay Alemania Australia Austria Canadá Corea Dinamarca España Estados Unidos Francia Irlanda Italia Japón Países Bajos Noruega Reino Unido Suecia Suiza Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World

Escape from the public service to the private service. Gradual merchandising of public goods and services: transportation, education, security, recreation, health. 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Spending Gasto por per hogar household por tipo de per transporte type of en transport Gran Santiago in Greater Santiago (%). (%) transporte privado 1997 transporte privado 2007 transporte público 1997 transporte público 2007 I II III IV V Source: Own elaboration on the basis of Household income and expenditure surveys.

Mobility scenarios Selected cities: changes in the participation of collective transport, 2007 and 2015 (in percentages) - CAF (2015) Energy use by main transport mode, urban areas of Latin America Uso de energía (in percentage) por modo - CAF principal (2016) Auto/ motoc/ taxi Ómibus/ micro/ vans Rieles 4% 30% 66% 1200 1000 968 800 600 400 200 0 180 519 Energía (GEP/viaje) 7 21.1 Contaminantes locales (gramos/viaje) 551 CO2 (gramos/viaje) Energy use and emission of pollutants per trip: cities with more than 60 thousand inhabitants Brazil - 2014. ANTP (2015) T Colectivo T Individual

Why the cities? Cities can be "engines" of economic development. They can regulate, set standards for public goods and services and thus reorient production and consumption patterns: sector + territory. The city addresses a key component of welfare and of redistribution, inclusion and equality through the quality of public goods and services, and through public participation in the discussion on the direction of development): it deals with collective consumption. The main urban challenges of the region are no longer to solve the problems of rapid rural-urban transition, but to improve the quality of life, close gaps in inequality, democratic cohesion and

A big environmental push: tilting the field 1. Programming the demand: improvement of the public transport systems: reorganization, electrification of vehicles, 2. Creating the supply: production of inputs for the respective value chains. 3. The coordination of supply and demands at the right scale would allow to capture that demand and its benefits (employment, income, domestic inputs) with national or Latin American production: batteries, chassis, bodies, hydrogen). 4. Other demand/supply coordinatinons (bycicles, electronics for the sectors, programs, renewable energy value chains, remote perception capabilities, waste and wastewater treatment in increasing percentages, their technological developments (gasification of organic, use of methane gas, recovery of nutrients, refining of plastics, recycling of metals and displacement of extracted materials.)