Tri-Valley Residential Real Estate Market Update
Real Estate Market Drivers
Unemployment US vs CA Jan. 2018: US 4.1% & Dec. 2017: CA 4.3% 14% CA US 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% SERIES: Unemployment Source: California Rate Association of REALTORS SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
Unemployment in California Metro Areas Dec. 2017 Kern Fresno Stanislaus San Joaquin Riverside Los Angeles San Bernardino Sacramento Ventura San Diego Contra Costa Alameda Orange County Santa Clara San Francisco 4.3% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 6.8% 6.6% 8.1% 8.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% SERIES: Civilian Source: Unemployment California Association Rateof REALTORS SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Job Creation vs. Housing Units Permitted 2010 to 2015 New Jobs vs. New Permits (2010-2015) 450,000 400,000 381,300 Jobs Permits 350,000 300,000 250,000 174,833 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 88,134 35,426 162,740 44,923 127,542 18,141 Los Angeles Santa Clara Orange San Francisco 141,162 40,434 San Diego 95,245 14,901 San Bernardino 98,149 105,586 18,108 66,054 44,772 31,255 6,349 10,890 Alameda Riverside San Mateo Sacramento SERIES: Nonfarm Source: Job California Growth Employment & Housing Affordability Development Index Department, (HAI) Construction Industry Research Board SOURCE: CA EDD, Construction Industry Research Board
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Housing Turnover Rate CA vs US 10% 9% CA US Linear (CA) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5.3% 4.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% SERIES: Percent Source: of existing California single-family Association homes of REALTORS being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody s Analytics, C.A.R.
Years Owned Before Selling 12 10 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 4 2 0 SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Boomers Not Moving as Often California Homeowners by Length of Tenure, 2013 35% Under 55 55+ 31.8% 30% 25% 20% 24.4% 21.3% 24.0% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9.0% 14.2% 12.4% 11.0% 12.0% 10.7% 8.9% 7.3% 5.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.9% 1978 & Earlier 1979 to 1984 1985 to 1989 1990 to 1994 1995 to 1999 2000 to 2005 2005 to 2009 2010 to 2013 SERIES: Distribution of Home Ownership by Year Moved In Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey
California Home Ownership Rate by Age 80% 70% 65 &Above 45 64 60% 50% Overall 40% 35 44 30% Under 35 20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SERIES: Homeownership Rates Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Supply of Homes for Sale
Tri-Valley Inventory 2009 to 2017 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Community Avg. Listings 2013-2017 2017 Listings Danville 1,165 1,200 San Ramon 733 711 Dublin 479 446 Livermore 1,002 740 Pleasanton 826 774 1,000 500-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
Central County Inventory 2009 to 2017 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Avg. Listings 2013-2017 2017 Listings Castro Valley 579 450 Hayward 1,253 1,111 San Leandro 646 448 San Lorenzo 172 109 1,500 1,000 500-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
Tri-Cities Inventory 2009 to 2017 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Avg. Listings 2013-2017 2017 Listings Fremont 1,334 1,197 Newark 270 245 Union City 364 287 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
Sales Prices
Tri-Valley Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 Community 2017 Median Sales Price Danville $1,323,000 San Ramon $1,100,000 Dublin $1,017,500 Pleasanton $1,133,875 $791,625 $600,000 Livermore $791,625 $645,000 $400,000 $424,000 $200,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
Central County Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 2017 Median Sales Price Castro Valley $825,250 Hayward $643,500 San Leandro $661,000 San Lorenzo $620,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
Tri-Cities Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 2017 Median Sales Prices Fremont $1,057,250 Newark $822,664 Union City $861,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
Sales Prices: Tri-Valley vs. East Bay Rank Community Median Sales Price 1 Alamo $1,675,625 2 Lafayette $1,508,750 3 Orinda $1,428,750 4 Moraga $1,353,250 5 Danville $1,326,500 6 Berkeley $1,201,250 7 Pleasanton $1,133,875 8 San Ramon $1,100,000 9 Albany $1,085,750 10 Walnut Creek $1,083,750 11 Fremont $1,057,250 12 Alameda $1,056,750 13 Dublin $1,017,500 14 El Cerrito $882,500 15 Union City $861,000 16 Castro Valley $825,250 17 Newark $822,664 Rank Community Median Sales Price 18 Clayton $804,000 19 Livermore $791,625 20 Oakland $763,875 21 Pleasant Hill $738,250 22 San Leandro $650,000 23 Hayward $643,500 24 San Lorenzo $620,000 25 Martinez $602,500 26 Concord $599,500 27 Hercules $579,944 28 Pinole $546,750 29 Brentwood $536,625 30 El Sobrante $518,500 31 Richmond $470,000 32 Antioch $425,500 33 Pittsburg $424,000 34 San Pablo $412,750
County 2017 Median Sales Price San Francisco $1,380,000 San Mateo $1,375,000 Santa Clara $1,150,000 Alameda County $868,000 Pleasanton $1,333,875 Dublin $1,017,500 Livermore $791,625
County 2017 Median Sales Price Pleasanton $1,333,875 Dublin $1,017,500 Livermore $791,625 Sacramento $348,000 San Joaquin $355,000 Stanislaus $249,000
Sales Activity
Tri-Valley Sales Activity 2001 to 2017 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Danville 675 736 San Ramon 699 705 Dublin 441 462 Livermore 641 956 Pleasanton 946 670 800 600 400 200-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
Central County Sales Activity 2001 to 2017 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Castro Valley 494 476 Hayward 1,010 1,033 San Leandro 656 586 San Lorenzo 218 185 800 600 400 200-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
Tri-Cities Sales Activity 2001 to 2017 2,500 2,000 1,500 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Fremont 1,316 1,292 Newark 289 265 Union City 369 345 1,000 500-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
2017 Real Estate Market Thermometers
2017 Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Thermometers Community Avg. Days on Market Danville 32 San Ramon 24 Dublin 26 Pleasanton 30 Livermore 23 Community List Price to Sales Price Percentage Danville 99.58 San Ramon 100.42 Dublin 100.98 Pleasanton 100.43 Livermore 101.30
2018 Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Forecast
Demand: 1. Strong regional economy / job opportunities 2. Universal Tri-Valley desirability 3. Interest rate increases 4. New Federal tax policies Supply: 1. Limited new construction 2. Accessory Dwelling Units 3. Costa-Hawkins / Rent Control 4. Property Tax Portability
For more information David Stark Public Affairs Director Bay East Association of REALTORS Telephone: (925) 730 4068 Email: davids@bayeast.org