The Caribbean and the Post-2015-Sustainable Development Agenda Setting the Scene by Ransford Smith International Development Consultant June 24, 2015.
Structure of Presentation What it will Cover Introduction Overview of Caribbean Economies Overview of Main Challenges Identification of Caribbean SDG Priorities Beyond the Priorities: Means of Implementation Data and Monitoring Conclusion 1
Objectives of Presentation To identify priorities for the Caribbean region amongst the sustainable development goals To raise political, technocratic and public awareness of the post-2015 sustainable development agenda s relevance for the Caribbean 2
Why the SDGs Are Very Important Breadth and scope of the SDGs make them particularly important to the Caribbean Region vulnerable increasingly across all three sustainable development pillars : social, economic and environmental 3
Overview: Caribbean Economies Structure Small, open economies Highly, and increasingly service oriented mainly tourism Performance Modest to low long term growth Middle to high income status Solid human development achievement 4
Developing Country Growth (1971 2013) Economy Caribbean Community Africa (developing only) Asia Developing only 1971-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2010 2010-2013 1971-2013 (Average) 2/1% 0.6% 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.04% 4.3% 1.8% 2.5% 5.4% 3.6% 3.08% 6.2% 5.3% 6.4% 7.2% 5.7% 5.99% East Asia 7.8% 9.7% 8.3% 8.3% 6.6% 8.22% Least Developed Countries 2.1% 2.5% 3.3% 7.3% 4.4% 3.57% 5
Structure of Caribbean Economies Agriculture (% of GDP) Industry (% of GDP) Services (% of GDP) Exports (% of GDP) Imports (% of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 2.3 18.1 79.7 44.1 59.5 The Bahamas 2.0 18.3 79.7 42.0 55.8 Barbados 1.5 15.7 82.9 42.5 54.3 Belize 15.3 19.1 65.6 60.9 66.3 Dominica 17.2 14.0 68.8 32.8 48.2 Grenada 5.6 15.2 79.2 25.1 50.7 Guyana 21.9 32.8 45.3 84.6 119.2 Haiti 18.2 52.9 Jamaica 6.7 20.8 72.5 30.4 53.0 St. Kitts and Nevis 1.7 25.5 72.8 38.4 49.3 Saint Lucia 3.1 14.4 82.6 46.0 51.2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 7.1 17.7 75.1 27.4 59.9 Suriname 7.0 48.6 44.4 30.4 45.2 6 Trinidad and Tobago 0.6 56.5 42.9 63.2 40.0
Caribbean Debt (2013) Country % of GDP Jamaica 143 Grenada 116 Barbados 108 St. Kitts and Nevis 100 Antigua and Barbuda 95 Belize 76 St. Lucia 74 Dominica 73 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 73 Guyana 58 Bahamas 56 Suriname 37 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Haiti 20 Source: Caribbean Development Bank Annual Report 2013 7
Caricom Inflows of FDI (2002 2013) Source: Taken from CARICOM Secretariat s Foreign Direct Investment Inflows of Member States: 2002-2013, March 2014. 8
Caribbean Human Development Ranking Antigua and Barbuda HDI Ranking (2013)* GDP Per Capita - 2013 (cur.us) GNI Per Capita Ranking (2013) Real GDP Growth: 1990-1999** Real GDP Growth: 2000-2009** Real GDP Growth: 2010-2013** 61 US$13,342 78 3.28% 4.88% 0.53% The Bahamas 51 US$22,312 53 2.82% 0.92% 1.97% Barbados*** 59 US$14,917 65 1.62% 1.81% 0.25% Belize 84 US$4,894 126 4.03% 4.28% 8.74% Dominica 93 US$7,175 103 1.99% 3.26% -0.41% Grenada 79 US$7,890 97 3.10% 3.10% 0.04% Guyana 121 US$3,739 138 6.02% 2.25% 4.97% Haiti 168 US$820 189-1.18% 0.69% 4.00% Jamaica 96 US$5,290 120 1.40% 1.20% 0.36% St. Kitts and Nevis 73 US$14,133 71 4.74% 3.45% 3.49% St. Lucia 97 US$7,328 102 2.88% 3.19% 2.50% St. Vincent and the Grenadines 91 US$6,486 108 2.97% 4.20% 1.94% Suriname 100 US$9,826 92 0.79% 5.10% 6.96% 9 Trinidad and Tobago 64 US$18,373 63 4.09% 7.44% 4.62%
Caribbean Economies: In Summary Region at risk of falling behind in development race Important human development gains at risk of being halted and eroded Sustainable development goals provide unique opportunity for social, economic, and environmental interventions in the region 10
Key Determinants of SDG Priorities 1. SDG priorities respond to main challenges confronting the region. 2. Global development dialogue relating to SIDs and to small states. Specifically: 3. Post-2015 sustainable development dialogue currently taking place in New York. Barbados Programme of Action Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action Samoa Pathway Outcome Document Seventeen goals and 169 targets proposed by the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals. 11
Main Challenges Across Three Pillars SDG Pillar Social Economic Environmental Challenge Gender equality Human development - Health - Education - Social inclusion and equality Debt External financing Food and nutrition security Competitiveness and innovation Infrastructure and energy Climate and environmental vulnerability 12
Goal 1 Goal Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all (Open Working Group s Goal 8) Rationale: Responds to Caribbean track record of secular growth underperformance high levels of unemployment, especially amongst youth lack of competitiveness as reflected in macro-economic imbalances particularly persistent current account and fiscal deficits Challenges: Debt burden Access to non-debt creating finance 13
Goal 2 Goal: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation (Open Working Group s Goal 9) Rationale: As small and relatively dispersed islands and coastal states infrastructure related to transport and communications is essential to economic development and to integration, both regionally, and into the wider global economy Key Objective: The Caribbean should ensure that infrastructure (roads, ports air and sea, and telecommunications) are recognized as important both in relation to industry and to services based economy, and are given clearly defined space in the SDGs 14
Infrastructure Readiness Logistics Performance Index (2014) Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (2014) Rural Access Index Antigua and Barbuda n/a 4.1 n/a The Bahamas 2.91 26.7 82% Barbados n/a 4.7 100% Belize n/a 7.8 78% Dominica n/a 1.6 88% Grenada n/a 4.5 98% Guyana 2.46 4.1 46% Haiti 2.27 5.1 28% Jamaica 2.84 24.5 93% St. Kitts and Nevis n/a 2.3 89% St. Lucia n/a 4.6 89% St. Vincent and the Grenadines n/a 3.9 97% Suriname n/a 5.0 79% 15 Trinidad and Tobago n/a 17.3 91% Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Goal 3 Goal: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all (Open Working Group s Goal 7) Rationale: According to the United Nations Technical Support Team on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda, it is universally recognized that no country has developed without access to reliable and affordable energy. The Caribbean is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels for up to 95% of energy needs - and the cost of electricity throughout the region is cited by one WB study as being amongst the highest in the world. Key point: Diversification of the energy mix is among the most urgent challenges facing the region. Goal will help to: conserve the environment strengthen productivity and competitiveness improve the lives of the poor. Key constraint: Access to finance and to technology. 16
Goal 4 Goal: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls (Open Working Group s Goal 5) Rationale: Key point: Available evidence and research suggests that despite progress region lagging in critical areas of gender equality and empowerment of women and girls. This is the case in core areas identified by UN Women: (i) freedom from violence; (ii) gender equality in capabilities and resources; (iii) gender equality in decision-making and power and voice in public and private institutions MDGs focus on gender parity and empowerment in areas such as education and reproductive health to be broadened to encompass inequalities in economic and public life, including in political opportunities, and access to and control over productive assets, such as land and capital. 17
Goal 5 Goal: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all (Open Working Group s Goal 4) Rationale: Given constraints of size and diseconomies of scale, Caribbean future lies in participating in the global economy on the basis of knowledge and skill intensive activities with high value addition in both the goods and services sectors. Key challenges: Orienting educational system to instil cognitive skills and build competencies in mathematics, science, information and communications technology Training and retention of qualified teachers Training and retention of skilled people, particularly tertiary trained 18
Goal 6 Goal: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages (Open Working Group s Goal 3) Rationale: Caribbean faces major health challenges related to reducing maternal mortality and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDs and other communicable diseases and also, very importantly, coping with the growing prevalence of NCDs such as diabetes, strokes, hypertension, heart diseases, cancers and chronic respiratory ailments. Key issues: Addressing risk factors for maternal mortality Raising awareness of and responding to the interlinkages between NCDs, communicable diseases, and other priorities such as food and nutrition. Implementing strategies of prevention and amelioration in regard to NCD 19
Goal 7 Goal: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture (Open Working Group s Goal 2). Rationale: With the exception of three countries (The Bahamas, T&T, Barbados) almost a fifth of the work force is engaged in agriculture, growth in which is more than three times more effective at reducing poverty than growth in other sectors. Poverty, hunger, malnourishment can be addressed through strengthening the role of agriculture in the Caribbean economy. The linkages between sustainable agriculture, poverty reduction, and food and nutrition security are strong. Key challenges: Minimizing environmental degradation by incentivizing change and good practices in land and resource use Social protection measures directed at risk-prone small-scale producers and marginalized consumers Enhancing food and nutrition security by strengthening effective demand and improving consumption choices Enhancing agriculture s role through the development of agro-industry and promoting the inclusion of small producers in modern and efficient value chains 20
Goal 8 Goal: Reduce inequalities within and among countries (Open Working Group s Goal 10) Rationale: Despite progress in human development, the proportion of people in the region who are poor is significant. Poverty is closely related to other developmental maladies, such as vulnerability and exclusion, and especially of women, youth, the aged, and other marginalized groups. 21
Caribbean Cross-section of Indices Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas, The Poverty (% of pop. below national poverty line) Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment (% of pop. aged 15-24) Homelessness (% of pop.) Prison Pop. (100,000 of pop) Homicide (100,000 of pop.) Gender Inequality Index*** 18.3 10.2 n/a 9.394 403 6.76 n/a 12.5 14.0 30.8 0.573 444 36.58 0.316 Barbados 19.3 10.8 n/a 1.012 521 11.34 0.350 Belize 41.3 23.2 n/a 0.002 533 39 0.435 Dominica 28.8 14.0 n/a 7.416 391 22.4 n/a Grenada 37.7 24.9 n/a 0.002 424 11.48 n/a Guyana 36.1 10.7 n/a 1.359 260 17.19 0.524 Haiti 77 16.8 n/a 1.6 96 6.89 0.599 Jamaica 17.6 13.0 34 0.141 152 41.18 0.457 St. Kitts and Nevis 21.8 6.5 n/a 0.243 714 38.17 n/a St. Lucia 28.8 21.2 n/a 0.229 317 25.25 n/a St. Vincent and the Grenadines 37.5 18.8 33.8 0.002 376 19.2 n/a Suriname 10.1 10.3 n/a 0.002 186 4.62 0.463 22 Trinidad and Tobago 17 5.9 10.5 0.017 281 26.4 0.321
Goal 8 (cont d) Key Challenges: Implementing measures to promote inclusion and access Integrating social policies into a sustainable development framework, not as accompanying or flanking measures, but as equal drivers of development. 23
Goal 9 Goal: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (Open Working Group s Goal 13) Rationale : The IPCC and others have identified SIDS as among the most vulnerable to climate change : meaning they are exposed to the most severe physical impact from climate change and have only limited capacity to respond. This is also the case with low lying developing coastal states such as those in the region. Key challenges: Strengthening environmental resilience through (i) climate adaptation measures; (ii) disaster mitigation and management, and (iii) effective management of environment and natural resources 24
Goal 10 Goal: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development (Open Working Group s Goal 14) Rationale: The oceans are critical to SIDS, coastal states, and the wider global community, as providers of eco-system services and generators of livelihoods through fishing, and coastal and marine resources. Furthermore, the sustainable harvesting of marine resources is increasingly an opportunity for environmentally sound and inclusive growth and development in small island developing states and their coastal counterpart Key challenges: Sustainable extraction of marine living resources Sustainable extraction of marine non-living resources (e.g. deep sea mining, off shore oil and gas drilling) Combatting ocean acidification and climate change impacts, such as sea level rise, coastal flooding and degradation and destruction of marine habitats Protection of bio-diversity 25
Goal 11 Goal: Rationale: Key challenges: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels (Open Working Group s Goal 16) Peaceful and inclusive societies - as desired by Caribbean citizens - are invariably anchored in accountable and transparent institutions, the rule of law and universal access to justice. Reduce high levels of crime and citizen insecurity Ensure long-term inclusive growth and development 26
Means of Implementation Strengthen the means of Implementation and revitalise the global partnership for development (OWG Goal 17) Means of Implementation will constitute financing : but will also include technology, capacity building, trade, systemic issues (related to a supportive international financial and trading environment) and multi-stakeholder partnerships 27
Means of Implementation Financing on an unprecedented size and scale will be necessary for success of the SDG agenda Financing estimates: 7 trillion dollars annually in water, telecoms, power, transport, industrial. and forestry sectors etc. (source: ICESDF) New blended financing paradigm - encompassing domestic public, domestic private, international public, and international private financing Constraints facing the Caribbean high ratio of public debt to GDP declining aid flows declining FDI inflows rising ratio of tax revenue to GDP 28
Data and Monitoring Data revolution required for implementing the SDGs Data key to transparency, accountability, measuring progress toward goals Critical data issues: strengthened national and regional statistical capabilities, multi-stakeholder involvement public awareness timeliness in the availability and evaluation of data 29
Strengths of SDG Paradigm Builds on and goes beyond the MDGs in structure and scope. Means of implementation, especially financing, essential aspect of the multilateral dialogue on the SDGs Transformative potential heightened by SDG methodology (goals, targets, indicators) provides a framework for monitoring and accountability at all levels Timeframe associated with SDGs (until 2030) provides basis for consistency and continuity. 30
Conclusion: Key requirements for success Political and technocratic ownership of SDGs Data that is timely, of quality, and disaggregated as necessary Public awareness of and engagement on SDGs National ownership of SDGs, but substantial and enhanced international support required for their implementation 31
Priority SDGs Summary List SDG Goal Priority 1 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture 2 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages 3 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all 4 Ensure gender equality and empower all women and girls 5 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all 6 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all 7 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization {and services development} and foster innovation 8 Reduce inequality within and among nations 9 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact 10 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development 11 Build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels, provide access to justice for all, promote peaceful and inclusive societies (Order of constituent phrases reversed from how they appear in OWG report) 12 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development 32