Small Business Development Conference Identifying Small Business Opportunities Over the Coming Decade Bernard Salt 12 October 2015
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Australians have always been driven by lifestyle Darwin Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014 WINNERS LOSERS Perth Adelaide Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Hobart
Where is demand coming from and what countries are on the rise? BIGGEST 1. United States 18,120 2. China 11,210 3. Japan 4,210 RICHEST 1. Switzerland 84,000 2. United States 56,000 3. Australia 52,000 4. Germany 3,410 4. Canada 45,000 5. United Kingdom 2,850 6. France 2,470 7. India 2,310 8. Brazil 1,900 9. 12. Australia 1,250 5. Netherlands 44,000 6. United Kingdom 44,000 7. Germany 42,000 8. France 38,000 9. Japan 33,000 10. Italy 31,000 $USbn GDP 2015 GDP > $US500bn $US GDP pc 2015 Source: Based on International Monetary Fund; World Economic Outlook Database; April 2015; KPMG Demographics
Ellenbrook Melton Karratha Gladstone - Tannum Sands Busselton Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Bunbury Bacchus Marsh Torquay Warragul - Drouin Drysdale - Clifton Springs Perth Melbourne Griffith Port Hedland Bairnsdale Albury - Wodonga Geraldton Morisset - Cooranbong Highfields Emerald St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Sydney Sunshine Coast Albany Brisbane Darwin Ballarat Cessnock Yeppoon Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Townsville Bendigo Port Macquarie Dubbo Bathurst Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Mackay Rockhampton Hervey Bay Orange Bowral - Mittagong Nowra - Bomaderry Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Cairns Wagga Wagga Muswellbrook Newcastle - Maitland Tamworth Port Lincoln Adelaide Toowoomba Shepparton - Mooroopna Canberra - Queanbeyan Central Coast Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Ballina Murray Bridge Ulladulla Lithgow Coffs Harbour Warrnambool Maryborough Forster - Tuncurry Echuca - Moama Batemans Bay Camden Haven Hobart Mount Gambier Gympie Goulburn Kurri Kurri - Weston Broome Bundaberg Whyalla Horsham Launceston Devonport Singleton Warwick Sale Port Pirie Ulverstone Broken Hill Wangaratta Traralgon - Morwell Armidale Alice Springs Burnie - Wynyard Taree Mount Isa Port Augusta Lismore Colac Moe - Newborough Grafton Kalgoorlie - Boulder Australians gravitate to lifestyle and commuter towns 1. Ellenbrook 2. Melton 3. Karratha 4. Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5. Busselton 6. Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale 7. Bunbury 8. Bacchus Marsh 9. Torquay 10. Warragul-Drouin 100. Kalgoorlie-Boulder 99. Grafton 98. Moe-Newborough 97. Colac 96. Lismore 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Perth Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Darwin Adelaide Canberra Hobart 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life KIPPERS Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDS Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics
Business opportunities at all stages of the lifecycle 2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m) 2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m) Kids & teenagers Young adults Mature adults Active retirees SCHOOL BUS School & recreation Start-up opportunities Business expansion Social activity & wellness 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Prosperous Australia is focussed on lifestyle and wellness good for small business Industry 2005-2015 2010-2015 2014-2015 Cafes, restaurants & catering 103.5% 28.8% 1.6% Pharmaceutical, cosmetic & toiletries 93.4% 21.2% 2.2% Liquor 90.0% 22.7% 3.4% Takeaway food 70.1% 13.5% 2.8% Supermarket & grocery stores 67.9% 24.8% 2.6% Hardware, building & garden supplies 55.8% 43.1% 8.0% Clothing 43.9% 15.6% 3.4% Furniture, floor coverings, housewares, textiles 32.9% 17.6% 6.6% Electrical & electronic goods 31.1% 3.6% 9.5% Footwear & other personal accessories 26.3% 6.5% 10.8% Recreational goods 23.3% 3.4% -3.0% Department stores 10.0% 0.6% 6.2% Newspapers & books -24.3% -27.8% -16.7% Total (incl other) 55.1% 19.4% 3.8% Per cent change in retail sales in Australia for 13 categories over ten and five years and over 12 months to August 2015 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Jun-1960 Apr-1961 Feb-1962 Dec-1962 Oct-1963 Aug-1964 Jun-1965 Apr-1966 Feb-1967 Dec-1967 Oct-1968 Aug-1969 Jun-1970 Apr-1971 Feb-1972 Dec-1972 Oct-1973 Aug-1974 Jun-1975 Apr-1976 Feb-1977 Dec-1977 Oct-1978 Aug-1979 Jun-1980 Apr-1981 Feb-1982 Dec-1982 Oct-1983 Aug-1984 Jun-1985 Apr-1986 Feb-1987 Dec-1987 Oct-1988 Aug-1989 Jun-1990 Apr-1991 Feb-1992 Dec-1992 Oct-1993 Aug-1994 Jun-1995 Apr-1996 Feb-1997 Dec-1997 Oct-1998 Aug-1999 Jun-2000 Apr-2001 Feb-2002 Dec-2002 Oct-2003 Aug-2004 Jun-2005 Apr-2006 Feb-2007 Dec-2007 Oct-2008 Aug-2009 Jun-2010 Apr-2011 Feb-2012 Dec-2012 Oct-2013 Aug-2014 Jun-2015 Australia has a culture of aspirational consumption 3 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5 GST GFC -1-1.5 Menzies Whitlam Fraser Hawke Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from June 1960 Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics
Business opportunities in knowledge and technical work this century Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Construction Education & Training Public Admin & Safety Retail Trade Accom & Food Mining Transport/Postal/ Warehouse Other Services Arts & Recreation Admin & Support Financial & Insurance Rental/hiring & Real Estate Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste Wholesale Trade Info Media & Telecoms Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing 15 years Aug 2015 up 2.8m (8.9m 11.7m) 700 600 500 400 300 Healthcare & Social Assist Professionals & Sciences Construction Education Aug 2000 Aug 2015 (000) Jobs grown: 3,139 Jobs contracted: 343 Net jobs added: 2,796 200 100 0-100 -200 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Managing a business through the life cycle 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s Entrepreneurial energy Business partnership Business evolves Business matures Business succeeds Business succeeds Powers of Attorney Business success & failure Business growth Competition, regulation, tax Divorce Succession plan Transition complete Care arrangements Not a lot to lose Marriage & kids Divorce Adults kids work elsewhere Corporate plan Entrepreneur steps back Spiritual focus Visioning & hard work Business v personal assets Teenagers arrive Second marriage children Health scare Next-gen kids Work-home pressure Kids come into business Source: KPMG Demographics
Where are the opportunities in 2015 and beyond? 1 As a nation we need to look beyond asking which industries and which markets and instead think about creating a culture of entrepreneurialism 2 Must accept/celebrate failure build a culture of have-a-go-ism 3 Generation Y best positioned to deliver an Entrepreneurial Dividend it suits the Y demeanour 4 Celebrate entrepreneurs, start-ups, SME having a go the aim is to have a thousand small businesses form and/or grow Source: KPMG Demographics
Introducing Melbourne s bachelor hotspot West Footscray 2.08:1 Flemington 1.41:1 Flemington Racecourse Racecourse of Love Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data
Connect www.bernardsalt.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au @bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt @bernardsalt