IRR Viewpoint Caribbean Hospitality Market Update 2 nd Quarter 2018 Report By James V. Andrews MAI, CRE, FRICS, ASA/BV
Caribbean Hospitality Market Update 2 nd Quarter 2018 Report By James V. Andrews, MAI, CRE, FRICS, ASA/BV Secrets Cap Cana Dominican Republic Overview While tourist arrivals to the region continue to grow at a modest pace, hotel performance has been relatively flat to slightly declining over the last twelve months. Some of this can possibly be blamed on the effects of the 2017 hurricanes and the hotels that remain temporarily closed, but other factors include the rapidly increasing supply of new hotel inventory and the continued expansion of AirBnB (and similar alternatives to conventional hotels) in the region. Tourism Arrivals Still Affected by 2017 Hurricanes Following a record 30.1 million stayover arrivals recorded in 2017, the Caribbean Tourism Association projected 2%-3% growth in arrivals for 2018 despite some destinations being largely out of business until hurricane damaged properties get re-opened. Of the 19 destinations reporting data to the CTO in 2018 so far, twelve2 are reporting growth and six are reporting declines. Of the top fifteen reporting countries (excluding Mexico and Belize), the average rate of growth in stayover arrivals for YTD 2018 is negative (-11.45%). However, this average rate of change includes three destinations where a significant number of the largest hotels are still closed due to hurricane damage. These include Puerto Rico (-47.7%), U.S. Virgin Islands (-54.0%) and the British Virgin Islands (-71.0%). Eliminating these countries, the average rate of growth is +3.9% for the top remaining nine markets. CARIBBEAN STAYOVER ARRIVALS - LEADERS Destination 2015 Arrivals % Chg 2016 Arrivals % Chg 2017 Arrivals % Chg 2018 YTD Arrivals % Chg 2017 Months Dominican Republic 5,599,427 8.90% 5,959,347 6.43% 6,187,542 3.80% 3,440,805 6.1% Jan-Jun Jamaica 2,123,042 2.10% 2,181,684 2.76% 2,352,915 7.80% 1,025,227 5.4% Jan-May Puerto Rico 1,786,563 5.80% 1,790,229 0.21% 1,598,559-10.70% 347,776-47.7% Jan-Apr Aruba 1,224,935 14.30% 1,101,954-10.04% 1,070,548-2.90% 540,377 2.6% Jan-Jun US Virgin Islands 769,058 5.30% 796,889 3.62% 612,702-14.30% 175,681-54.0% Jan-May Barbados 591,872 13.90% 631,513 6.70% 661,160 4.70% 260,386 3.7% Jan-Apr Martinique 487,364-0.40% 519,304 6.55% 535,646 3.10% 223,723-1.0% Jan-Apr Trinidad & Tobago 439,749 6.60% 408,782-7.04% 394,650-3.50% 135,553-4.9% Jan-Apr BVI 393,018 1.80% 407,764 3.75% 334,630-17.90% 59,628-71.0% Jan-May Cayman Islands 385,379 0.02% 385,451 0.02% 418,403 8.50% 209,143 16.5% Jan-May St. Lucia 344,908 0.86% 347,872 0.86% 386,127 11.00% 174,864 5.2% Jan-May Curacao 468,442 3.10% 441,262-5.80% 397,886-9.80% 204,802 1.7% Jan-Jun Average Increase 6.15% 3.08% 21,403,135-1.37% -11.45% Source: Caribbean Tourism Organization, except Various Govt. Tourism Departments Where Noted * The highest rate of growth in the region for the year to date was recorded in the Cayman Islands (16.5% through May), followed by the Dominican Republic (6.1% through June) and Jamaica (5.4% through May). 2
Growth in Arrivals by Country, YTD 2018 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 16.50% 0.00% -4.90% -1.00% 1.70% 2.60% 3.70% 5.20% 5.40% 6.10% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% Proposed Embassy Suites Aruba -40.00% -50.00% -54.00% -47.70% -60.00% -70.00% -71.00% -80.00% Hotel Performance Slightly Down in 2018 For the year to date through June 2018, hotel performance has generally been flat to slightly down based on data from STR Inc. For the year-to-date June, occupancy in the region is down 1.4%. For same period, the average daily rate declined 0.4% for the Caribbean. As a result, RevPar is down 1.9% for the year to date. Caribbean Hotel Performance, Year to Date June $260.00 $240.00 $220.00 $200.00 $180.00 $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Daily Rate $247.84 $218.43 $219.28 $218.34 RevPar $181.21 $158.26 $156.41 $153.43 Occupancy 72.70% 70.82% 70.86% 69.89% 100.00% 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% The slight decrease in ADR coupled with a slight decrease in occupancy results in a minor decline in RevPAR for the period. In our opinion, the overall performance in the region has not been significantly impacted by closed hotels because those rooms have been removed from the available inventory (supply) and they come from a variety of chain scales with varying rate scales. 3
Many hotels in the USVI and Puerto Rico that had managed to re-open in 2017 and early 2018 were housing FEMA and relief workers only; and at inflated rates in some cases. However, this situation has largely dissipated. It is unlikely that the effects of the hurricanes have had a major effect on the greater Caribbean hotel statistics, although some effect is likely given that many of the hotels which remain closed are some of the largest in those destinations. As of June 2018, the total number of rooms in inventory (regardless of closures) in the Caribbean grew by 3.0% to 251,738 in 1,964 projects over the same period in the prior year. Caribbean Hotel Inventory Caribbean Hotel Inventory 255,000 1,980 250,000 1,960 245,000 240,000 1,940 Sunscape Resort, Curacao 235,000 1,920 Hotel Rooms 230,000 1,900 Projects 225,000 220,000 1,880 215,000 1,860 210,000 Rooms 1,840 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Projects Based on a comparison of the total number of rooms in inventory and occupancy overall, we can interpolate the number of room nights sold in each year, and the growth rate in demand versus supply. Demand growth exceeded that of supply in 2014 and 2015 (YTD June), but has lagged behind supply growth in the last three years. Over the last five years (YTD June), supply has increased 11.5% while demand has increased 9.03%. 260,000 Supply/Demand Comparison Year to Date June 170,000 250,000 240,000 160,000 230,000 150,000 220,000 210,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 140,000 Supply Rooms Demand Rooms 4
For the twelve months through June 2018, the Cayman Islands is reporting the highest ADR for the reporting countries in the region at $426.95, (up 17.9%) followed by St. Lucia ($369.03, down 7.77%) and Aruba ($300.69, up 7.67%). We note that Cayman is also leading the region in growth in arrivals, and both metrics may be related to the opening of the Kimpton Seafire in late 2016 as well as the divergence of tourists that would otherwise be traveling to hurricane affected areas. $426.95 Hotel Statistics by Country 2018 $369.03 Proposed Wellness Boutique Hotel, Grand Cayman $300.69 $285.19 $284.17 $220.42 $196.88 $138.84 76.70% 70.10% 67.20% 73.90% 64.10% 73.50% 73.00% 54.80% Aruba Cayman Barbados Jamaica Bahamas St. Lucia Puerto Rico Dominican Republic ADR Occupancy Note that the above data excludes the Turks and Caicos Islands; which reported ADRs above $900 based on very few reporting hotel/condo resorts which are all at the top end of the price range for accommodations there. As such, the reported ADR for that destination is not a good comparison within the greater market. In addition, the USVI, which normally reports third highest ADR in the region is not listed because the majority of the hotels that report data to STR are temporarily closed due to storm damage. The highest growth in ADR was reported by the Cayman Islands, at 17.9% above the same period last year. It is likely that the ADR for Cayman was buoyed by the opening of the Kimpton Seafire in December 2016 as well as the fact that many travelers previously planning on trips over the holidays to the USVI, St. Maarten, BVI, Anguilla, Antigua and St. Barth may have diverted to Cayman instead. 5
Growth in ADR and Occupancy by Country 2018 20.00% 17.90% 15.00% 11.31% 10.00% 7.46% 7.67% 7.12% 6.64% 8.51% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 1.36% 1.08% 1.76% 0.96% St. Lucia Bahamas Dominican Barbados Puerto Rico Aruba Jamaica Cayman -0.93% Republic -1.75% -1.61% -10.00% -7.77% -9.57% Malliouhana Resort Anguilla -15.00% Pipeline Growing Growth in ADR Growth in Occ As of June 2018, STR reported 92 projects Under Contract in the Caribbean (excluding Mexico); totaling 21,360 rooms. This represents a 25.8% increase in rooms Under Contract compared with June 2017; and a 109% increase in rooms In Construction. The projects Under Contract include those in the In Construction, Final Planning and Planning stages, but do not include projects in the Unconfirmed or Deferred stages. 7,000 Caribbean Pipeline By Country As Of June 2018 30.0% 6,000 25.0% 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% - Turks and Caicos USVI Puerto Rico Barbados Cayman Bahamas Aruba St. Lucia Jamaica Dominican Republic 0.0% Rooms in Contract Percent of Total Rooms The Dominican Republic leads the Caribbean in terms of the destination with the most rooms In Contract at 6,086 rooms, followed by Jamaica (3,246 rooms, due to the proposed 2,000-room Celebration Jamaica; which remains in the Final Planning stage). As the graph above indicates, the rooms which St. Lucia has in the pipeline represent more than 25% of the total existing room stock in that country, while six other destinations are adding between 10% and 17% to their existing inventory. 6
The largest projects in the Planning, Final Planning, or In Construction Stage are shown following. Largest Projects Under Contract Project Unit Count Location Stage Celebrations Jamaica 2,000 Montego Bay, Jamaica Final Planning Lopesan Costa Bavaro Resort & Spa 1,020 Punta Cana, Dominican Republic In Construction Melia Internacional 934 Veradero, Cuba In Construction H10 Hotel Punta Cana 909 Punta Cana, Dominican Republic In Construction Paladium Hotel Grand 850 Montego Bay, Jamaica Final Planning Paradisus Cayo Santa Maria 802 Cayo Santa Maria, Cuba In Construction Grand Fiesta Americana 558 Punta Cana, Dominican Republic In Construction Source: STR, Inc. Secrets Papagayo, Costa Rica We note that all the largest projects are all-inclusive in nature, and in markets that are dominated by that type of product. Analysis of Increasing Supply and Pipeline We have compared overnight tourist arrival statistics for each destination with the number of rooms in each market. The top ten markets which we analyze have ratios of arrivals to rooms ranging from 84 to 167 for 2017, and average 102.8. Based on the overall ratio, the Caribbean will need to increase its overnight tourist arrivals by 9.5% to account for additions to supply and maintain consistent occupancy levels. Presumably these new properties will come online within three years and this would equate to just about 3.5% per year which is a reasonable expectation. However, there are several destinations which would need to increase demand more significantly to keep up with supply. For example, St. Lucia would have to increase its arrivals by about 121,000, or 35% based on its ratio of arrivals per room in 2017. St. Lucia has eight projects in the active pipeline totaling 1,600 rooms. Based on the same metrics, Aruba would need to increase demand by 15.5%, Cayman by 12.5% and Turks and Caicos by 14.2%. Note that the pipeline for Cayman does not include the next hotel reported to be planned by the Dart Group of Companies, who already owns the Kimpton Seafire and the Ritz Carlton Seven Mile Beach. Their next hotel will be connected to their master planned development known as Camana Bay and is rumoured to be branded as a Four Seasons. The number of rooms for this project is not known at this time. Conclusions and Forecasts Hotel performance remains relatively flat in the region due to (1) rapidly increasing supply, (2) hotel closures due to hurricane damage, and (3) the increasing effect of AirBnB and other rentals of private homes as an alternative to traditional hotels. Some destinations, such as Grand Cayman, St. Lucia and Jamaica are benefitting from tourists that would normally travel to destinations where there are a number of temporary hotel closures; such as Puerto Rico, USVI, BVI and Sint Maarten. The Dominican Republic is likely benefitting from a stigma which is negatively affecting Mexico relating to safety concerns. In addition, there have been a number of very large hotels recently developed in D.R. which are effectively destinations in of themselves and have the effect of increasing the critical mass in that location. The CTO projects 2% to 3% growth in arrivals for 2018 and beyond, which reflects a gradual slowing of growth. All metrics point to a mature market that will require nurturing with respect to creative marketing in order to maintain growth in hotel performance in keeping with increasing supply. 7
Part of the greater network of Integra Realty Resources offices, IRR-Caribbean provides real property and business valuation and consulting services throughout the Caribbean region; specializing in hotel and resort investment assets and businesses. James V. Andrews MAI, CRE, FRICS, ASA/BV Senior Managing Director Integra (IRR) Caribbean Cayman Islands Virgin Islands Bahamas Puerto Rico Main: (844) 952-7304 ext. 402 Email: jandrews@irr.com Website: www.irr.com/caribbean Sources for Underlying Data Used in Charts: 1. Caribbean Stopover Arrivals: Caribbean Tourism Association 2. Caribbean Stayover Arrivals Leaders: Caribbean Tourism Association 3. Growth in Arrivals by Country: Caribbean Tourism Association 4. Hotel Performance, Year to Date December: STR, Inc. 5. Caribbean Hotel Inventory: STR, Inc. 6. Supply/Demand Comparison Year to Date December STR, Inc. and Integra Realty Resources 7. Hotel Statistics by Country: STR, Inc. 8. Growth in ADR and Occupancy by Country: STR, Inc 9. Caribbean Pipeline by Country: STR, Inc. 10. Latest Projects Under Contract: STR, Inc 8