The San Diego Region s Air Transportation Future June 22, 2006 1 Ryan N. Hall, Airport System Planner II San Diego County Regional Airport Authority
Presentation Overview 1. The law 2. The ballot measure 3. The regional asset 4. At risk: the regional economy 5. Lindbergh s limitations 6. SDIA concepts 7. Airport site selection process 8. Miramar feasibility 9. Your questions 2
The Law The authority shall adopt a comprehensive plan on the future development of San Diego's regional international airport. In developing its plan, the authority shall review all options of alternative sites, including, but not limited to expansion of the existing airport site use of current military installations that may become available for civilian or mix-use and other development options available to address future airport needs. 3 Source: California Public Utilities Code, Section 170048 (h)
The Ballot Measure On June 5, 2006, the Airport Authority Board adopted a resolution to place the following measure on the November 7, 2006 county-wide ballot: To provide for San Diego s long-term air transportation needs, shall the Airport Authority and government officials work to obtain approximately 3,000 of 23,000 acres at MCAS Miramar by 2020 for a commercial airport, provided necessary traffic and freeway improvements are made military readiness is maintained without expenses to the military for modifying or relocating operations no local taxes are used on the airport overall noise impacts are reduced and necessary Lindbergh Field improvements are completed? 4
The Regional Asset Tiny Lindbergh Field fuels the regional economy. An airport designed to fully meet the region s long-term air transportation needs would fuel the regional economy even more with Visitor spending by air passengers Contribution to the Gross Regional Product Creation of airport-related jobs 5 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
The Regional Asset Visitor spending by air travelers $5.7 billion SDIA in 2005 $2.6 billion $4.8 billion Constrained airport in 2035 Unconstrained airport in 2035 6 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
The Regional Asset Airport s contribution to the Gross Regional Product $33.3 billion SDIA in 2005 $9.9 billion $20.6 billion* Constrained airport in 2035 Unconstrained airport in 2035 * Assuming lost air cargo capacity is not replaced by other means 7 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
The Regional Asset Airport-related jobs in San Diego County 115,070 jobs 125,370 jobs* 163,480 jobs SDIA in 2005 Constrained airport in 2035 Unconstrained airport in 2035 * Assuming lost air cargo capacity is not replaced by other means 8 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
At Risk: The Regional Economy What damage will be done to the San Diego region s economy and residents if future air transportation needs are not fully met? A 2005-2035 Airport Economic Analysis projects the following losses if nothing is done: Lost personal income Lost Gross Regional Product Lost jobs 2005-2035 AIRPORT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 9 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
At Risk: The Regional Economy Job losses in 2035 would be equivalent to some of the region s largest employers 38,100 27,185 22,600 0%* 50%* 75%* 10 largest defense contractors UCSD All Federal employees Projected job losses, 2035 Region s largest employers * Percentage of foregone cargo exports using other modes 10 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
At Risk: The Regional Economy Losses to the Gross Regional Product in 2035 would approach or exceed the 2004 annual revenues of two of the region s largest public companies Billions of 2005 $ $12.73 billion $7.22 billion $4.47 billion 0%* 50%* 75%* Projected loss to GRP, 2035 Region s largest public companies 11 Source: 2006 HR&A Airport Economic Analysis
Lindbergh s Limitations Lindbergh Field cannot meet the region s long-term air transportation needs. Why not? Single runway Limited-capacity runway Small footprint Geographic constraints 12
Lindbergh s Limitations Limited-capacity runway SDIA runway usable for landings* 7,590 feet SDIA runway overall length 9,400 feet Ideal runway length to serve region s long-term air transportation needs 12,000 feet * Due to terrain and other obstructions, only 7,590 feet of SDIA s runway is usable for landings 13
Lindbergh s Limitations Geographic constraints SDIA sits in a bowl, with terrain obstructions off both ends of the runway SDIA has the steepest approach angles for landing aircraft allowed by the FAA Fully loaded 747 s bound for Europe or Asia cannot take off from SDIA 14
Lindbergh s Limitations Aircraft Operations 300,000 250,000 More operations are projected than Lindbergh Field can handle Severe Congestion 300,000 Operations 260,000 Operations 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Actual SH&E High SH&E Low 2015 2022 Note: Operating thresholds based on SH&E Capacity/ Delay Analysis & FAA Guidelines 0 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 15 Sources: SH&E, SDIA, FAA
Lindbergh s Limitations In four decades (1990-2030) passenger demand at SDIA is projected to triple Annual Passengers 40,000,000 32.7 million 30,000,000 2004 16.4 million* 20,000,000 Historic 27.1 million 10,000,000 0 2005 17.4 million* High Forecast Low Forecast 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 16 Source: SH&E Analysis * All-time record highs
Lindbergh s Limitations Nationwide, passenger demand is projected to increase more than 3% each year 740.6 769.1 793.6 819.7 847.2 875.5 905.2 935.7 967.7 1071.6 1000.7 1035.3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Passengers (in millions) 17 Source: FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2006-2017
Lindbergh s Limitations Since 2004, annual percentage growth in passenger volumes at SDIA has surpassed projections 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2.8% 2.2% 3.1% 7.3% 6.1% Projected Actual annual % average annual increase % increase SDIA high forecast 2002-2030 SDIA low forecast 2002-2030 USA forecast 2005-2017 Actual SDIA 2004 compared to 2003 Actual SDIA 2005 compared to 2004 18 Sources: SH&E, SDIA, FAA
SDIA Concepts Numerous concepts examining how Lindbergh Field could be expanded to serve the region s long-term air transportation needs have been thoroughly analyzed. None have proven feasible without extraordinary community impacts. 19
SDIA Concepts, 2001 Master Plan 20
SDIA Concepts, ASSP Concept 3 Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 5 Concept 4 Concept 6 21
Airport Site Selection Process Comprehensive comparative analysis of all options in the region Extensive stakeholder involvement 32-member Public Working Group suggested criteria and thresholds for potential airport sites Three technical peer review groups Environmental Airspace Ground Access Extensive public outreach & input Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA) peer review Transparent & thorough process 22
Airport Site Selection Process An airport to serve the region s long-term air transportation needs requires : Two runways for simultaneous takeoffs & landings 12,000 ft. runways to handle all aircraft types FAA-required 4,300 ft. separation between runways for dual independent flight operations At least 3,000 acres to address capacity demands Efficient mass transit system for airport access Ability to serve 35 million passengers annually Will accommodate natural population growth of the region 23
The Long-Term Solution Airport Site Selection Program The Airport Authority is mandated by state law to plan for the Region s long-term air transportation needs. Comprehensive comparative analysis of all options in the region 32-member Public Working Group suggested criteria and thresholds for potential airport sites Three technical peer review groups Environmental Airspace Ground Access Geographic Information System (GIS)-based search identified additional sites 24
Public Working Group Criteria and Thresholds Limiting Criteria Threshold Description Terrain Obstructions Topography Significant Excludes sites that have significant terrain obstructions Existing Residential Population to be Relocated No greater than 5,000 Excludes sites causing the relocation of 5,000 or more residents Existing Noise Impacted Population No greater than 10,000 Excludes sites resulting in more than 10,000 people being impacted by noise Mitigation Acreage for Coastal Wetlands/ Vernal Tide Pools No greater than 1,000 acres Excludes sites requiring more than 1,000 acres to be mitigated Mitigation Acreage for Wetlands/Marine areas No greater than 1,000 acres Excludes sites requiring more than 1,000 acres to be mitigated Fill required for developing the site No greater than 100 million cubic yards (net) Excludes sites requiring more than 100 million cubic yards of fill (net) to develop the site 25 19
Campo Search Area 26 22
Borrego Springs Search Area 27 23
The Long-Term Solution Airport Site Selection Program Nine sites on the list Detailed analysis on two civilian sites: Campo/ Boulevard & Imperial County COMPLETED Joint (military/ civilian) use analysis on three military sites COMPLETED 28 28
Civilian Site Concepts Campo/Boulevard 29
Civilian Site Concepts Desert Site in Imperial County 30
Civilian Site Concepts SDIA Concept 6 ELIMINATED 10/05 31
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MCAS Miramar Concept 14 33
List of Site Study Elements 34 Meteorological Conditions Airport Facilities and Operational Efficiency Joint Use Evaluation Airspace Ground Access Utilities Land Acquisition/Relocation Noise Air Quality Geological/Geotechnical/Seis mic Hydrology Water Quality Biological Communities Endangered and Threatened Species Wetlands Floodplains Historical, Architectural, Archaeological, Paleontological Coastal Zone Management Prime/Unique Farmland Light Emissions Visual Impacts DOT Section 4(f) Energy Supply and Natural Resources Solid/Hazardous Waste Handling Land Use Community Disruption Induced Socio-Economic Impacts Housing Impacts Mitigation Implementation Requirements Cost Estimates
Miramar Feasibility Five feasibility criteria analyzed Aeronautical Environmental Noise Market Military Financial 1. Aeronautical does the site meet basic airport planning criteria? 2. Environmental what impact will an airport at this site have on the natural environment? 3. Noise how many residents will be impacted by noise from an airport at this site? 4. Market how attractive and accessible will the site be to airlines and passengers? 5. Military what impacts will an airport at this site have on military operations? 6. Financial how much will it cost to build an airport at this site? 35
Market Accessibility Most U.S. Airports are located 5 to 20 miles from the City Center Only Denver (25.4 miles) and Dulles (26.6 miles) are farther than 25 miles Top U.S. Airports and Potential San Diego Airport Sites Distance from City Ce nte r (in M ile s) 30 Potential San Diego Airport Sites Existing U.S. Airports (Number of Airports) 25 20 15 10 5 0 0<5 NAS N.I. 510 10 15 15 20 MCAS Miramar 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 45 45 50 MCB Camp Pendleton 50 55 55 60 60 65 65 70 CBS (M ile s from City Ce nte r) 36 70 75 75 85 80 85 85 90 March ARB 90 95 95 100 BSS 100 105 105 110 ICDS
Airport Site Selection Process Summary Comparison Final Sites MCB CP MCAS Miramar CBS ICDS Meets need Meets needs with issues Major issues Meets need Meets need Issues Issues Coastal issues Issues Issues Market Not acceptable Not acceptable Strong Acceptable Strong Military No military issues Airspace changes required Unmitigatable impacts Joint use appears possible Joint use appears possible Somewhat Questionable Least viable Somewhat questionable Potentially viable Potentially viable Aeronautical Environmental Financial 37 NAS NI/ SDIA
Financial Feasibility Who Pays? No local taxes pay for airport facilities Funds come from a variety of outside sources: FAA (ticket tax) Existing passenger facility charge ($4.50 per ticket) Airport revenue bonds Airlines and concessionaires Local taxes may be needed for new transportation infrastructure Additional onramps & offramps Additional roadway lanes Shifting portions of freeways 38
Stay Informed! www.san.org/siteselection Questions? 39