Boeing Capital Corporation Aviation Market and Aircraft Finance
Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are not guaranteed, and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Certain statements in this document may be "forward-looking" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as may, should, expects, intends, projects, plans, believes, estimates, targets, anticipates, and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements relating to our future financial condition and operating results, as well as any other statement that does not directly relate to any historical or current fact. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. As a result, these statements speak to events only as of the date they are made and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, except as required by law. Specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the effect of economic conditions in the United States and globally, general industry conditions as they may impact us or our customers, and our reliance on our commercial customers, our U.S. government customers, our suppliers and the worldwide market, as well as the other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time in The Boeing Company s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
B&W on the water in Seattle 787 s first flight, 12/15/2009 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 16 14 12 Annual ASKs Billions 10 8 6 4 2015 to 2034 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2015 World Economy - 3.1% Airline traffic - 4.9% Cargo traffic - 4.7% 2034 Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2015-2034
Boeing forecast accuracy Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats Accurate Conservative 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2004 CMO Forecast Medium-term Actual Under-forecasted single-aisles 0 20,000 2004-2013 Long-term Over-forecasted large and regional jets 16,000 12,000 8,000 1994 CMO Forecast Actual 4,000 SOURCES: CMO 1994, CMO 2004, ASCEND 0 1994-2013 5
Travel growth emerging demand 10.00 Air trips per person per year colors USA 1.00 Brazil Russia 0.10 India China 0.01 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Source: IHS Economics, Sabre GDP per capita 6
100 million new passengers per year in emerging Asia markets +100M LHR 70M ATL 101M per yr
Airlines will need 38,000 new airplanes valued at $5.6 trillion by 2034 Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015-2034 New airplane deliveries by region 2015-2034 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2,490 Regional jets 7% 26,730 Singleaisle 70% 4,770 Small wide-body 13% 3,520 Medium wide-body 9% 540 Large wide-body 1% Region Airplanes Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150 World Total 38,050 8% 19% 3% 8% 3% 38,050 21% 38% Source: 2015 Current Market Outlook Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. 8
Network expansion - not aircraft size - driving growth of mega-city airports 2000 2014 +58% +60% +46% 304-2% 299 Capacity Frequency Cities served Seats per flight Source: Industry schedules for long-haul routes top 25 long-haul airports 9
Older, less efficient airplanes will be replaced with more efficient, newer generation airplanes 45,000 Units 43,560 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 21,600 20,000 15,000 10,000 21,960 Growth 58% 16,090 Replacement 42% 38,050 5,000 5,510 Retained fleet 0 2014 2034 Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 10
Cycle Drivers are Changing Geographic Balance map or globe Airline Business Model Balance Replacement Requirements
Airline profitability is strong 14% 12% 10% 8% EBIT Margin, % revenues 12.1% 2013 2014E 2015F 6% 4% 2% 0% 5.0% 5.3% 3.7% 3.9% 1.2% -2% N. Amer Europe Asia MidEast LatinAm Africa Source: IATA, June 2015 BOEING PROPRIETARY
Strong cash generation Operating cash flow ($B) and EBIT margin (%) of world s 15-largest airlines (by revenue) $50 12% $40 9% $30 6% $20 $10 3% $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 0% Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY
Balance between supply and demand is objectively measured Utilization Available capacity Load Factors Supply and Demand Lease rates and residual values Parked Fleet Exogenous events
Deliveries tracking with historical ratios Replacement of 2.5-3% plus Growth of 3.5-4% Annual deliveries 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Deliveries as % of fleet 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Ascend 15
Product Strategy
Exceptionally well positioned for the future Superior value, efficient market coverage 500 Current Boeing Future Boeing 500 450 747-8 747-8 450 400 777-9X 400 350 777-300ER 777-8X 350 Seats 300 777-200ER 787-9 787-10 787-9 300 250 787-8 767-300ER 787-8 250 200 737-900ER 737 MAX 9 200 150 737-800 737 MAX 8 150 737-700 737 MAX 7 100 100
737 MAX MAX efficiency MAX reliability MAX passenger appeal
Next-Generation and MAX 737 customers operate throughout the world 9,851 firm orders and 150 customers Through October 2015 5,632 deliveries Customer number exclude those for BBJ
In-service fleet projection 737 MAX MAX catches up with NG fleet ~4800 ~5500 737 NG 737 Classic Ascend data and Boeing Market Analysis
2010 Boeing 737 MAX EIS 1984 EIS 1998 Sky Interior EIS 2017 Fuel Fuel reduction 14% reduction 737 Classic Next-Generation 737 6% 20% Fuel reduction 2001 Blended Winglets 2008 Carbon Brakes 2011 Performance Improvements 2017 New Engine & AT Winglet 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Minor interior upgrades Minor aerodynamics cleanup wing-to-body fairing Minor fuel-burn improvements from 6 different engines 2012 Winglets 2015 New engine Fuel reduction A320 Series EIS to compete with 737 Classic A320neo Launched to compete with 737NG
737 MAX 200 ~30% of 737-800 deliveries in the last 5 years were with 189 seats 737 MAX 200 200 economy at 28-in pitch New door Older seats Slimline seats 20.9 inches 22 inches 30 inches 28 inches Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 22
200 36 100 112 75 100 20 100 20 37 40 7 37 95 201 16 20 99 60 60 69 42 75 60 15 3 100 8 8 30 20 61 65 90 6 75 61 50 10 61 30 5 2 30 7 3 2 8 4 10 645 As of April 06, 2016 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY 23
MAX vs. NEO order book Neo overbooking is not market share capture Boeing 737 Max 40% Installed fleet represented 60% in order book 555 Leasing company 864 Airbus A320 NEO Installed fleet represented in order book Leasing company
Firm configuration Build First delivery 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Firm concept Design First flight
Boeing widebodies are right-sized and optimized Seamless market coverage from 200-500 seats Airbus A380 600 550 Future Boeing 500 450 747-8 400 777-9X A350-1000 A350-900 A330-900 A330-800 350 300 250 Seats 777-8X 787-10 787-9 787-8
Boeing 46% More orders 54% 47% More backlog 53% 35% Airbus 35% More deliveries 65% 65% Net orders last 10 years Backlog units 2015 deliveries
787 Most efficient long-range family Unrivaled passenger experience New environmental benchmark
Wood shop at Plant 1 in Seattle, 1921 787 in assembly in Everett Plant Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
As of April 29, 2016 297 787-8 deliveries 106 787-9 deliveries 2.7M flight hours 93M passengers flown >99% fleet schedule reliability >12 hours daily utilization 100+ NEW markets 430+ nonstop routes As of April 29, 2016 *SOURCE: ARMS and Ascend Flightglobal Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY 30
Copyright 2016 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
A place for everyone's bag Dynamic adjustable lighting Inviting, spacious cabin More head room Electronically dimmable windows Every seat is a window seat Copyright 2016 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY 32
SOURCE: Third party research commissioned by Boeing, Nov 2014, 21 countries, Base = 3809, BOEING PROPRIETARY
As of February 19, 2016 * Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Opening new markets More than 100 new nonstop markets now connected with the 787 Vancouver Oakland Toronto San Jose Denver Boston San Francisco New York San Diego Las Vegas Los Angeles Houston Orlando Monterrey Fort Lauderdale San Juan Puerto Plata Puerto Vallarta Montego Bay Punta Cana St Croix Island Aruba Bergen Oslo Helsinki Edinburgh Dublin Copenhagen Warsaw Manchester Dusseldorf Rome Casablanca Doha Addis Ababa Lagos Nairobi Beijing Seoul Xi'an Tokyo Chengdu Wuhan Osaka Shanghai Delhi Hanoi Guangzhou Bangkok Phuket Ho Chi Minh Sao Paulo Cape Town Mauritius Announced In operation Brisbane Sydney Melbourne As of February 19, 2016 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
787-10 schedule Launch Detailed design First delivery 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Firm concept Firm configuration Rollout and first flight
As of February 19, 2016 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
As of April 29, 2016 * Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. Model 314 Clipper z
777 z
1,895* firm orders, 1,384 delivered, 69 customers As of March 31, 2016 *Order totals include 777X Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Strong momentum continues for the 777-300ER 12 new operators in the last three years American Airlines Aeroflot Ethiopian Airlines Swiss Swiss Thai Saudia Garuda Indonesia Swiss International Airlines United Airlines China Airlines China Southern China Eastern Kuwait Airways Thai Airways China Southern China Eastern
Wide-body Competitive Landscape Medium Wide-body The 777 family is outselling the A350-1000 by more than 4 to 1 Orders through July 31, 2015 777-8X / 777-9X 777-300ER Small Wide-body Congested marketspace A350-900 A350-800 767-300 / 767-200 787-8 / 787-9 / 787-10 A330neo A330-200 / A330-300 777-200
15-year worldwide medium twin-aisle fleet 3500 3000 2500 Current generation medium twin-aisle fleet 787-10, A350-1000, 777X ~30% of the fleet in 2030 will consist of current generation medium twin-aisle airplanes 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: CMO 2014 and Boeing Analysis Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY
More efficient than A350-1000 12% improvement in fuel efficiency 10% improvement in operating economics Greater airline revenue opportunity Expanded network capability All-new passenger experience Highest reliability in its class
New interior with wider cabin New flight deck Folding wing tip for airport compatibility New composite wing with 72 m span All new GE9X engine Natural laminar flow nacelle Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY 46
As of October 31, 2015 25 21 34 Unidentified 10 150 60 20
On track for first delivery 777-9 First delivery 777-8 First delivery Offerability Launch Firm configuration GE-9X engine certification Roll-out Flight test 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY 48
14 customers 121 total 747-8 orders 101 total 747-8 deliveries 99.3% dispatch reliability as of November 30, 2015 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. 49
Queen of the Skies moves forward 1st 747-8F delivered to Silk Way 747-8F performance improvements since 2011 entry into service 8.3% fuel consumption / tonne improvement* 9,200 lbs OEW reduction 7.7% operating cost / tonne reduction* 570 nmi additional range** 20,400 lb additional max structural payload* 1st 747-8 Intercontinental delivered to Korean Air 747-8I performance improvements since 2012 entry into service 4.7% fuel consumption improvement 8,300 lbs OEW reduction 2.6% operating cost reduction 455 nmi additional range * with Alternate MZFW option ** at constant payload Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. 50
121 announced orders and commitments 14 customers 747-8 747-8F 7 19 14 10 9 10 10 14 4 2 3 7 2 5 5 as of December 31, 2015 Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. 51
Aircraft Finance Overview
Healthy aircraft financing environment Leasing Companies 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F Capital Markets Commercial Banks Export Credit Agencies Private Equity and Hedge Funds Tax Equity New Sources of Funding Airframe and Engine Manufacturers SATISFACTORY CAUTIONARY MAJOR CONCERN
Growing delivery finance requirements Financing forecast for global commercial airplane deliveries in 2016 $161 $172 $122 $127 $130 $142 23% 24% 34% 36% 28% 27% 13% 11% 2015 2016F 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions of US$ Cash Capital Markets Bank Debt Export Credit Tax Equity
Half of world airline fleet will be leased 0.5% 1.7% 14.7% 1970 1980 1990 24.7% 40.7% 50% leased 2000 2014 2020 Projection Source: Ascend, Boeing analysis 55
Airplanes remain a sound investment Aviation finance is a growth business with stable, attractive returns Growing business with balanced global demand Stable product profile Mature, diverse, and global aircraft finance market 56
Working Together for sustainable and efficient aircraft financing Customers Capital Providers Policy and Opinion Leaders