Table 23 Modelled domestic overnight visitor expenditure (a) in the top 20 regions ranked by expenditure, including airfares and long distance transport costs Year ended 31 March 2010 (a) (b) Expenditure Share of Visitors Visitor Expenditure expenditure nights per visitor Expenditure per night Average length of stay $ million % '000 '000 $ $ Nights Rank Region State/Territory (a) (b) (c) (d) 1 Melbourne Vic 567 11 6 267 18 160 729 251 3 2 Sydney NSW 92 10 6 917 19 726 69 228 3 3 Gold Coast Qld 2 879 7 3 18 13 512 91 213 Brisbane Qld 2 183 5 128 13 301 529 16 3 5 Tropical North Queensland Qld 1 791 1 511 8 622 1 185 208 6 6 Experience Perth WA 1 775 2 07 8 985 737 198 7 Sunshine Coast Qld 1 72 2 68 11 039 698 156 8 Adelaide SA 1 710 2 02 7 083 838 21 3 9 Mid North Coast NSW 1 5 3 2 911 11 10 99 131 10 South Coast NSW 1 278 3 2 830 10 260 52 125 11 Northern Rivers NSW 891 2 1 673 6 580 533 135 12 Canberra ACT 873 2 1 83 5 067 76 172 3 13 Hunter NSW 863 2 2 06 5 16 22 159 3 1 Australia' s South West WA 797 2 1 517 5 281 525 151 3 15 Darwin NT 697 2 582 3 201 1 198 218 5 16 Western Vic 671 2 1 58 62 60 15 3 17 Hobart and Surrounds Tas 69 2 892 3 385 727 192 18 Central Queensland Qld 636 1 1 172 902 53 130 19 Snowy Mountains NSW 586 1 623 2 261 91 259 20 Central NSW NSW 570 1 1 611 03 353 129 3 (c) Top 20 regions (d) Total Australia 31 086 2 853 73 100 5 067 65 997 166 912 256 596 690 69 186 167 Expenditure excludes major purchases such as motor vehicles. Number of visitors do not sum to the total as visitor numbers are calculated as net visits. More information on the expenditure allocation method is in the Methodology section. Figures may not add to the total due to rounding. Total Australia includes small amounts that cannot be allocated to a particular State/Territory. Base: All figures relate to Australian residents aged 15 years and over. Source: Tourism Research Australia expenditure allocation method applied to 2010 National Visitor Survey data. How to read this table: Table 23 shows that, during the year ended 31 March 2010, there were 2.9 million domestic overnight visitors to Mid North Coast who spent a total of $1.5 billion or 3% of total domestic overnight visitor expenditure in Australia. This expenditure includes airfares and long distance transport costs. Travel by Australians: March Quarter 2010 31
Table 23 Modelled domestic overnight visitor expenditure (a) in the top 20 regions ranked by expenditure, including airfares and long distance transport costs Year ended 31 March 2011 Expenditure (a) Share of Visitors (b) Visitor Expenditure Expenditure Average expenditure nights per visitor per night length of stay $ million % '000 '000 $ $ Nights Rank Region State/territory 1 Melbourne Vic 753 11 6 1 18 379 738 259 3 2 Sydney NSW 703 11 7 357 20 2 639 230 3 3 Gold Coast Qld 2 67 6 3 382 13 202 791 203 Brisbane Qld 2 363 6 82 1 79 88 160 3 5 Experience Perth WA 1 678 2 58 9 258 658 181 6 Sunshine Coast Qld 1 66 2 688 10 102 612 163 7 Mid North Coast NSW 1 583 3 119 12 07 508 131 8 Adelaide SA 1 519 1 993 7 116 762 213 9 Tropical North Queensland Qld 1 387 3 1 225 7 891 1 133 176 6 10 South Coast NSW 1 258 3 2 791 10 058 51 125 11 Canberra ACT 98 2 1 836 955 517 191 3 12 Hunter NSW 89 2 2 02 5 301 16 160 3 13 Australia's South West WA 812 2 1 575 5 830 515 139 1 Northern Rivers NSW 792 2 1 863 6 501 25 122 3 15 Western Vic 667 2 1 27 03 67 152 3 16 Hobart and Surrounds Tas 625 1 769 2 651 813 236 3 17 Central NSW NSW 620 1 1 620 319 383 1 3 18 Darwin NT 57 1 58 3 19 1 07 180 6 19 High Country Vic 55 1 1 008 3 163 550 175 3 20 Australia's North West WA 527 1 55 3 810 1 158 138 8 Top 20 regions (c) 30 532 73 6 339 167 2 659 182 Total Australia (d) 1 906 100 67 605 257 02 620 163 (a) (b) (c) (d) Expenditure excludes major purchases such as motor vehicles. Number of visitors do not sum to the total as visitor numbers are calculated as net visits. More information on the expenditure allocation method is in the Methodology section. Figures may not add to the total due to rounding. Total Australia includes small amounts that cannot be allocated to a particular state/territory. Base: All figures relate to Australian residents aged 15 years and over. Source: Tourism Research Australia expenditure allocation method applied to 2011 National Visitor Survey data. How to read this table: Table 23 shows that during the year ended 31 March 2011, there were 1.2 million domestic overnight visitors to Tropical North Queensland who spent a total of $1. billion or 3% of total domestic overnight visitor expenditure in Australia. This expenditure includes airfares and long distance transport costs. Travel by Australians: March Quarter 2011 31
Table 10 Visitors by country of residence and main purpose of journey for selected regions (a) Year ended 31 March 2010 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast Tropical North Queensland '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 Country of residence New Zealand 315 208 157 207 33 Japan 127 36 27 11 95 Hong Kong 80 2 20 17 13 Singapore 7 71 28 22 Malaysia 39 7 17 27 1 Indonesia 38 10 8 1 Taiwan 60 27 31 2 5 Thailand 1 22 3 1 Korea 135 30 3 36 11 China 237 156 62 106 7 India 5 50 13 12 8 Other Asia 60 3 15 6 3 USA 297 123 63 30 79 Canada 76 29 27 1 2 United Kingdom 35 178 11 82 119 Germany 105 57 52 17 50 Scandinavia 55 27 2 1 2 France 6 30 26 10 25 Italy 36 23 11 6 15 Netherlands 30 18 1 7 15 Switzerland 27 16 12 7 12 Other Europe 111 59 0 23 0 Other countries 183 82 91 35 3 (including backpackers) Holiday 1 31 691 90 596 535 Visiting friends & relatives 537 325 207 127 52 Business 383 219 113 38 2 Education 198 13 68 7 30 Employment 1 26 15 7 7 Other 92 35 25 1 10 (excluding backpackers) Holiday 1 000 99 296 8 36 Visiting friends & relatives 507 306 189 118 3 Business 376 215 110 38 23 Education 151 113 6 30 10 Employment 32 20 9 5 2 Other 78 31 20 10 6 Backpackers 8 257 29 1 229 Total 2 592 1 0 918 829 659 Base: All visitors aged 15 years and over. Continued... Note: Numbers sum to more than total visitors because some visitors stopover in more than one region. (a) Visitors who spent at least one night in the region. International Visitors in Australia: March Quarter 2010 19
Table 10 Visitors by country of residence and main purpose of journey for selected regions (a) Year ended 31 March 2011 Tropical North Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast Queensland '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 Country of residence New Zealand 35 230 168 188 3 Japan 18 3 25 97 105 Hong Kong 77 6 21 18 12 Singapore 88 79 31 25 2 Malaysia 0 90 17 31 3 Indonesia 7 36 9 9 2 Taiwan 6 22 29 18 6 Thailand 33 28 5 6 2 Korea 158 33 38 35 8 China 279 218 85 121 7 India 65 58 1 9 6 Other Asia 60 51 15 8 3 USA 276 117 56 27 79 Canada 72 36 25 17 22 United Kingdom 323 175 130 63 96 Germany 95 56 5 17 9 Scandinavia 50 28 23 11 21 France 59 31 20 9 21 Italy 37 2 10 16 Netherlands 28 19 1 5 15 Switzerland 28 15 13 7 12 Other Europe 99 60 3 21 37 Other countries 191 100 91 38 36 (including backpackers) Holiday 1 33 729 61 550 518 Visiting friends & relatives 531 36 209 118 58 Business 32 277 137 9 27 Education 197 15 67 3 32 Employment 9 35 20 11 12 Other 93 36 32 11 1 (excluding backpackers) Holiday 1 028 53 302 5 366 Visiting friends & relatives 98 37 197 110 9 Business 22 269 133 8 25 Education 15 118 7 30 11 Employment 37 26 11 7 6 Other 77 33 26 9 10 Backpackers 27 250 210 126 19 Total 2 6 1 586 926 783 661 Base: All visitors aged 15 years and over. Continued... Note: Numbers sum to more than total visitors because some visitors stopover in more than one region. (a) Visitors who spent at least one night in the region. International Visitors in Australia: March Quarter 2011 19
GOLD COAST BACKGROUND A summary of room stock for hotels, motels and serviced apartments within the Gold Coast Tourism Region for the December 2009 quarter is below. GOLD COAST REGIONS DECEMBER QUARTER 2009 December Quarter 2009 Gold Coast Hotels/Motels Establishments Rooms Occupancy ARR RevPAR Hotels 26 6,171 73.7% $151.7 $111.6 Motels 30 1,398 6.7% $111.11 $71.89 Serviced Apartments 98 5,8 70.% $133.55 $9.02 Total Gold Coast Tourism Region 15 13,017 71.3% $10.1 $99.92 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / Dransfield. Figures in Italics have been calculated. All figures are for establishments with 15 or more rooms 2009 IN REVIEW In 2009, Gold Coast hotels recorded revpar decline of 3.2%, improved over our 8.7% forecast. Supply decreases of 2.%, differed from 2.0% growth expectations and demand dropped by 2.9% leaving occupancy above expectations. 2009 FORECAST ACTUAL 2009 Var RevPAR -8.7% -3.2% 5.5% Supply 2.0% -2.% -.% Demand -.0% -2.9% 1.1% Occupancy 62.8% 66.% 3.6% ARR -3.0% -2.7% 0.3% In the first half of 2010, Gold Coast hotels recorded revpar increase of 2.0%, the driver being a 3.2% reduction in supply. Rate growth escaped the market increasing by only 0.7% compared to % growth expectations. SUPPLY In 2009, Gold Coast room stock decreased by approximately 320 rooms and well below expectations. There has been a net decrease in supply recorded since 200. In 2010 we also expect a net decrease in supply of 1.3% with a 3.2% reduction in the first half to be offset by the opening of Peppers Broadbeach (the Oracle) which had previously not been factored in as short term accommodation. Whilst this building is over 500 apartments we have assessed about 200 as joining the short term letting pool. The Hilton and Soul buildings will likely add another 320 apartments/rooms to the market. DEMAND In 2009, demand declined for the fourth time in 5 years by 2.9%, however improved over prior expectations. In 2010 this trend continues with demand reducing 0.6% in the first half. Demand has been constrained by the reduction in supply. The Gold Coast also recorded a high 76.3% domestic content, reduced from 78.1% in 2008. Demand performance has been somewhat contradictory to key indicators where Gold Coast visitors declined for the 12 months to December 2009, however increased by 3% for the 12 months to June 2010. Whilst outperforming visitor levels in other parts of Queensland, from both international and domestic visitors, this is not reflected in hotel demand. Medium to long term demand growth is supported by the $100m Gold Coast Airport redevelopment. It will substantially increase aviation capacity to double the size of the existing terminal. The TFC have forecast an increase in domestic visitor nights in Queensland of 0.6% over the period to 2019. Growth in international visitor nights to Queensland is presently forecast to increase by an average of 3.6% to 2017. Combining the TFC forecasts for international and domestic visitor nights in Queensland, the weighted average growth in visitor nights in the Gold Coast to 2018 is expected to be 1.%, slightly above last year s expectations of 1.0%. In 2010, demand is forecast to increase by 1.0% as improvement takes hold in the second half. We expect demand growth to average % to 2012 and long term growth to average 3.2% to 2018, once the new higher quality properties are complete. This represents a slight upgrade through the medium term. The increase of three large five star projects will grow market demand and reposition room rates over time. An average supply increase of 1.5% is expected over the medium term to 2012, once withdrawals are considered. This is a 500 room downgrade on prior expectations or 3.%. An average supply increase of 2.% is expected over the full forecast period to 2018 as supply recommences from about 201. 30 DRANSFIELD HOTEL FUTURES 2010
GOLD COAST CONCLUSION The financial crisis has helped the Gold Coast avoid oversupply with substantial withdrawals. It has also dampened short term demand, restricting rate and revpar growth. Occupancy rates fell to a six year low in 2009. Over the medium term, occupancy is expected to recover slightly to reach 71% in 2012 with a similar level over the entire forecast period to 2018. Average room rates are expected to grow abnormally in 2011 and 2012 due to the large volume of much higher quality stock opening. In the long term, 3.1% p.a. growth is expected which is ahead of prior expectations. The Gold Coast market reached its cyclic peak in 2007, consistent with Australia as a whole. The trough has been quickly reached in 2009 due to the unusual market circumstances and correction from supply withdrawal. RevPAR growth of 3.% is forecast for 2010, a significant downgrade from the previous 2009 forecast, however assisted by a much higher 2009 base. We are, however, forecasting four years of strong growth from 2011 such that revpar growth is expected to average 6.5% over the 3 years to 2012 and exceed 6% for the three years after 2010. Long term revpar growth is expected to average.0% over the forecast period. This represents a 3.9% increase in real revpar expectations caused by the higher base and improved quality of supply. GOLD COAST TOURISM REGION Room Room $2009 Year Night Rooms* % Night % ARR % RevPAR % Real Occ Supply Chng Demand Chng Chng Chng RevPAR HISTORICAL 2000,836,060 13,29 1.8% 2,988,350 3.9% $96.28 0.5% $59.9 2.6% $76.80 61.8% 2001,835,890 13,29 0.0% 3,101,397 3.8% $96.59 0.3% $61.95.1% $77.55 6.1% 2002,779,863 13,096-1.2% 3,151,130 1.6% $98.58 2.1% $6.99.9% $78.96 65.9% 2003,799,223 13,19 0.% 3,163,96 0.% $103.02.5% $67.92.5% $80.62 65.9% 200,832,758 13,20 0.7% 3,360,921 6.2% $108.70 5.5% $75.60 11.3% $87.7 69.5% 2005,856,61 13,305 0.5% 3,350,81-0.3% $115.21 6.0% $79.8 5.1% $89.6 69.0% 2006,807,950 13,172-1.0% 3,32,812-0.8% $123.30 7.0% $85.26 7.3% $92.9 69.2% 2007,789,328 13,121-0.% 3,38,09 1.8% $130.60 5.9% $92.28 8.2% $97.70 70.7% 2008,936,110 13,52 3.1% 3,296,505-2.6% $136.15.2% $90.92-1.5% $92.8 66.8% 2009,819,78 13,205-2.% 3,201,310-2.9% $132.51-2.7% $88.01-3.2% $88.01 66.% Actual Average 1988-2009 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% $88.71 65.3% FORECAST 2010,756,32 13,031-1.3% 3,233,323 1.0% $133.83 1.0% $90.98 3.% $88.33 68.0% 2011,905,97 13,1 3.1% 3,39,989 5.0% $11.86 6.0% $98.17 7.9% $92.5 69.2% 2012 5,038,65 13,805 2.7% 3,598,689 6.0% $18.96 5.0% $106.39 8.% $97.36 71.% Average 2010-2012 1.5%.0%.0% 6.5% $92.7 69.5% 2013 5,130,257 1,055 1.8% 3,760,630.5% $15.91.0% $113.56 6.7% $100.89 73.3% 201 5,377,615 1,733.8% 3,929,858.5% $161.11.0% $117.7 3.7% $101.56 73.1% 2015 5,619,608 15,396.5%,07,75 3.0% $165.9 3.0% $119.53 1.5% $100.10 72.0% 2016 5,760,098 15,781 2.5%,108,70 1.5% $167.60 1.0% $119.55 0.0% $97.20 71.3% 2017 5,86,99 16,018 1.5%,170,097 1.5% $169.28 1.0% $120.7 1.0% $95.31 71.3% 2018 5,93,197 16,258 1.5%,232,68 1.5% $17.36 3.0% $12.36 3.0% $95.31 71.3% Average 2013-2018 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% $98.0 72.1% Total Forecast Average 2.% 3.2% 3.1%.0% $96.51 71.2% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / Dransfield. *Room numbers are annualised. Note: Growth rates for 2003 have been adjusted as advised by the ABS following the break in the time series DRANSFIELD HOTEL FUTURES 2010 31