COMCEC TOURISM OUTLOOK 2015 Aslı TAŞMAZ DADAKOĞLU COMCEC Coordination Office September 2015
OUTLINE The Importance of Tourism for Development Overview of International Tourism in the World International Tourism in the OIC Member Countries Tourism Opportunities and Challenges in the OIC Member Countries 1
The Importance of Tourism for Development A remarkable socio-economic phenomena A critical sector in both advanced and developing economies Related to more than 185 supply-side economic activities, with direct and indirect effects 2
The Importance of Tourism for Development Direct Contribution of Tourism to worldwide GDP is 3.1% in 2014 105 million jobs directly & 277 million jobs in related industries 9 % GDP (Direct, Indirect and Induced) 1/11 JOBS US $ 1.5 TRILLION IN EXPORTS 6% OF WORLD S TRADE 30 % OF SERVICES EXPORTS Source: UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2015 Edition 3
Key Tourism Trends in the World Annually 43 million increase (by 3.3% a year) in international arrivals Increase in the weight of emerging economies 57% int. arrivals Emerging destinations (2030) Travel between regions vs. Travel within the same region Increase in air transport 4
Key Tourism Trends in the World Sustainability Tourism Sustainable Tourism The concept of «Green Economy» will gain importance for tourism sector. 5
Key Tourism Trends in the World Changing Consumer Decrease in working time, more time for vacation More experienced and demanding customers Demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles Increasing middle classes in emerging economies Being mobile & trusting other consumers more than traditional institutions 6
Key Tourism Trends in the World Technology E-tickets E-visas Improved air and ground traffic handling New border control systems INTERNET Tourists Choices as a Booking Channel (2014) Internet (66%) Travel Agencies (24%) (Source: ITB World Travel Trends Report 2014/2015) 7
Key Tourism Trends in the World SOCIAL MEDIA Review Portals Blogs Forums 92% of Social Media users have been influenced by travel Source: ITB Berlin, March 2015 blogs and ratings in 2014. 8
International Tourist Arrivals (Millions) 8,1 678 5,9 807 927 891 2 949 995 6,5 5,1 1.038 4,2 1.087 1.133 1.175 4,7 4,3 4-3,9 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Number of tourists (millions of people) * Forecast Source: World Tourism Organization Tourists' Annual change (percent) 9
International Tourist Arrivals (%) 12 10,4 10 8,0 8 6 4,5 5,2 5,2 4,9 4,9 4 4,0 4,4 4,74,6 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies 5,8 2,5 2-0,4 0-2 07/06 08/09 09/08 10/09 11/10 12/11 13/12 14/13-4 -3,1-4,4-6 Source: UNWTO, World Tourism Barometer, Volume 13, June 2015 10
International Tourism- Market Share Tourist Arrivals Middle East 4% Africa 4% Americas 19% Middle East 5% Africa 5% Americas 16% Europe 57% 2000 Asia/ Pacific 16% Europe 51% 2014 Asia/ Pacific 23% Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights 2014 & World Tourism Barometer, Volume 13, June 2015
International Tourism Receipts (Billion $) 400 200 000 800 600 400 200 0 8,2 7,3 7,7 6,3 4,5 4,8 5 3,8 1.197 1.246 941 853 927 1.030 1.079 679 475-4,1 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Tourism receipts (billion dollars) Receipts' Annual change (percent) * Forecast Source: World Tourism Organization 12
International Tourism- Market Share Tourism Receipts Middle East Africa 3% 2% Americas 28% Middle East 4% Africa 3% Americas 22% Europe 49% 2000 Asia/ Pacific 18% Europe 41% 2014 Asia/ Pacific 30% Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights 2014 & World Tourism Barometer, Volume 13, June 2015 13
Prospects for 2015 Continued Growth in 2015 (3 % - 4 % increase) Lack of Security and Ebola Disease The weakness of many currencies against US$ Decline in oil prices Lower transport costs Boost economic growth by lifting purchasing power. Special Demand in Oil Importing Countries 14
International Tourism in the OIC Countries 111 111 81 88 132 108 149 150 124 121 161 167 134 143 177 189 151 151 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Arrivals (Millions) Receipts (Billion US$) Source: Adopted from SESRIC, 2015 15
International Tourism in the OIC Countries (%) 14 13 12 12 14 13 16 13 17 17 17 17 17 14 14 14 14 13 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Share in International Arrivals Share in International Receipts Source: Adopted from SESRIC, 2015 16
Top 10 OIC Tourism Destinations in International Tourist Arrivals (2014) 39.811 (Thousands) 27.437 15.098 10.282 9.990 9.628 9.435 6.069 4.769 4.560 *2013 data Top-10 countries hosted 137.1 million international tourist in 2014. 17
Top 10 OIC Tourism Earners in International Tourism (2014) 29,6 21,8 (Billion $) 11,6 9,8 8,2 7,2 7,1 5,9 4,6 4,4 *2013 data Top-10 countries earned US$ 110 billion as international tourism receipts in 2014. 18
Member Countries by Major Surplus on the Travel Balance In 2014 (US$ billion) Tourism Receipts Tour. Expenditures Balance 2014 2014 2014 Turkey 29.6 5.1 24.5 Malaysia 21.8 12.2 9.6 Morocco 7.1 1.4 5.6 Egypt 7.2 3.1 4.1 Jordan 4.4 1.1 3.2 Indonesia 9.8 7.7 2.1 Lebanon* 5.9 4.4 1.5 S. Arabia 8.2 24.1-15.9 UAE* 11.6 17.7-6.1 Qatar 4.6 8.7-4.1 Kuwait 0.4 11.3-10.9 * 2013 Data Turkey ranks as 5th, Malaysia as 9th, Morocco as 17th, Egypt as 22th and Jordon as 24th country in international tourism market in 2014. 19
Tourist Arrivals in OIC Regions (OIC-MENA, OIC-Asia, and OIC-Sub-Saharan Africa) (Millions) 99 102 106 104 112 60 67 61 26 27 29 70 81 84 35 38 38 40 43 44 48 49 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OIC-ASIA OIC MENA OIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 20
Tourism Receipts in OIC Regions (OIC-MENA, OIC-Asia, OIC-Sub-Saharan Africa) (Billion $) 78 71 81 81 83 83 88 47 55 56 63 16 16 17 22 26 25 30 32 36 37 39 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OIC-ASIA OIC MENA OIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 21
Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries Saudi Arabia recorded healthy growth (+13%) Turkey realized 5% (39.8 mn.) more arrivals in 2014 EXPO 2016 in Antalya-Turkey Malaysia realized 6.7% more arrivals in 2014 celebrated The Visit Malaysia Year 2014 Malaysia Year of Festivals 2015 Egypt showed solid growth (+5%) in 2014 & expectations on 3% increase for 2015. Source: UNWTO, BMI Research 2015 22
Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries Indonesia recorded 7% increase in tourist arrivals in 2014. Demand for high luxury resorts Inbound arrivals are expected to increase by 4% in 2015. Lebanon saw an increase (+6%) in 2014 after two years of decreases (-18% in 2012 & -7% in 2013). Qatar posted a solid 8% increase in arrivals in 2014. United Arab Emirates of Dubai (+2%) saw moderate growth after four years of strong results. Source: UNWTO 23
Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries Sierra Leone, reported a 46 % decrease in 2014 due to Ebola Disease. Guinea is also affected from Ebola outbreak. Tunisia experienced a slight decrease (-3%) in 2014 and it is expected that decreases will continue in 2015. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan reported 7% decrease in arrivals for the year 2014. Source: UNWTO 24
Tourism Opportunities and Challenges for the OIC Member Countries Opportunities Challenges Natural Resources Cultural Resources Human Resources Authenticity and newness Price competitiveness Dynamism Insufficient Tourism Investment &Infrastructure Poor Tourism Planning & Product Development Travel Facilitation Problems Safety and Security Related Problems Low Tourism Service Quality INSUFFICIENT MARKETING AND PROMOTION Insufficient Image Building and Branding 25
T&T Competitiveness Index 2015- ICT Readiness Economy Rank Score Bahrain 15 5,76 United Arab Emirates 16 5,76 Qatar 25 5,44 Saudi Arabia 28 5,29 Kuwait 39 5,01 Oman 45 4,83 Kazakhstan 48 4,74 Source: World Economic Forum, The Travel &Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015 26
Application of ICT s on Tourism Sector Tourism Businesses can: optimize their operations achieve greater marketing reach improve their products Governments need to: improve ICT adoption by tourism SMEs in their business interactions improve their competitiveness by enhancing business relationships between source markets and destinations facilitate the involvement of SMEs in the global digital value chain
THANK YOU www.comcec.org comcec@comcec.org Aslı TAŞMAZ DADAKOĞLU COMCEC Coordination Office September 2015