Growing Horizons Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 John Leahy Chief Operating Officer, Customers
Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036 RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5 vs. GMF16 +3.1% % change 2016-2036 135% Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120 +6.4% 112% New passenger aircraft deliveries 34,166 +1,741 Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410 +14.2% 50% New freighter aircraft deliveries 733 +88 Total New Aircraft Deliveries 34,899 +1,829 2 Notes: Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017
20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft 24,807 single-aisle aircraft +1,277 vs GMF 2016 8,686 twin-aisle aircraft +626 5.3 $US trillion 1,406 very large aircraft -74 34,899 new aircraft +1,829 3 Notes: Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value Number of aircraft 30,000 25,000 24,810 20,000 15,000 10,000 8,690 5,000 0 1,410 Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft % units 71% 25% 4% % value 46% 44% 10% 4 Notes: Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Fleet in service evolution Number of aircraft* 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 22,030 Growth 34,900 20-year new deliveries 20,000 15,000 10,000 20,500 12,870 Replacement 5,000-7,630 Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries Stay 5 Notes: Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017
2016 was a good year Number of countries 90 80 70 60 142 countries 64 78 81% of world population 88% of world GDP 50 40 42 30 20 20 10 0 <0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10% % - ASK growth 2015-2016 6 Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
World load factors remain at record levels World passenger load factor - % 85% 80% 80% 75% 70% 69% 65% 60% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 7 Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions Emerging/Developing China India Middle East Rest of Asia Africa CIS Latin America Central Europe 6.4 billion people in 2016 Yearly RPK growth 2016-2036 +5.8 % Advanced Western Europe Israel North America Japan Singapore South Korea Australia/New Zealand 1 billion people in 2016 +3.2 % 8 Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017
Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years People in Middle Class* (million) 6,000 Forecast 5,000 4,950 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,350 1,950 2,900 1,822 3,900 2,695 981 501 73 144 216 322 456 781 828 850 865 859 3,624 1996e** 2006 2016 2026 2036 Emerging countries Developing countries Advanced countries 5,820 6,600 7,430 8,200 8,900 World Population (M.) 23% 30% 39% 47% 56% % of world population 9 Rounded total to nearest 50 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices ** Estimate for 1996 split by region Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
Almost 50% of world s private consumption to come from emerging markets World private consumption (trillion 2010 $US) 90 Forecast 80 70 60 50 40 34% Emerging/Developing countries 46% 30 20 10 23% 77% 66% Advanced countries 54% 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 10 Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
~60% of international tourists to be transported by air in 2036 International tourist arrivals (million) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 >1.2bn tourists Forecast >2.4bn tourists Tourism by surface (Road, Water, Rail) Tourism by Air 0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Share of tourists travelling by air 48% 51% 54% 57% 59% 61% 62% 11 Source: UNWTO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF
Low Cost Carrier market penetration has increased significantly since 2006 Low Cost Carrier seats offered on domestic and intra-regional flights (million) Europe-CIS North America x1.2 x2.6 38m 25m Asia-Pacific Middle East 2006 2016 2006 2016 x16.4 x4.8 >39m 4m 2006 2016 Latin America Africa x5.7 x3.9 9m 2006 2016 12 Source: OAG September of each year, Airbus GMF 0.6m 2006 2016 2006 2016
~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016 2016 trips per capita 10 1 United States, 2016 1.8 trips per capita Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America 0.1 India, 2016 0.1 trips per capita China, 2016 0.4 trips per capita Bubble size proportional to population 0.01 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Source: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017 2016 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
in 2036, it will be 83% 2036 trips per capita 10 Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe United States, 2036 2.5 trips per capita 1 Latin America China, 2036 1.3 trips per capita Middle East North America Bubble size proportional to population India, 2036 0.4 trips per capita 0.1 0.01 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2036 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity) 14 Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (trillion RPKs) Oil Crisis Oil Crisis 8 Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis WTC Attack SARS Financial Crisis 7 6 5 4 +60% growth over the last 10 years x2 since 9/11 3 2 1 0 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 15 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF
Traffic doubles every 15 years World annual traffic (trillion RPKs) 18 16 14 ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a. x2 12 10 8 6 x2 4 x2 2 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 16 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Share of 2016 RPKs 20-year CAGR Share of 2036 RPKs Asia-Pacific 2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic 30% 5.6% 38% Europe 26% 3.4% 21% North America 22% 2.6% 16% Middle East 10% 6.1% 13% Latin America 5% 4.5% 5% CIS 4% 4.0% 4% Africa 3% 5.3% 3% 17 Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Domestic Chinese traffic to become number one Annual traffic per leg flow Domestic PRC Domestic USA Western Europe - USA Intra-Western Europe Western Europe - Middle East Domestic Asia Emerging Middle East - USA Indian Subcontinent - Middle East Domestic India PRC - USA Asia Emerging - Middle East Asia Emerging - PRC Western Europe - PRC Central Europe - Western Europe Western Europe - South America Asia Developped - Asia Emerging Asia Developped - PRC Domestic Brazil Intra-Middle East South America - USA x2.5 x3.7 x4.5 x3.4 x5.4 x3.6 x3.4 x3.8 x2.2 x2.6 x2.0 x2.5 x3.0 x2.6 x3.1 x2.3 x1.8 x1.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Trillions RPKs x1.5 2016 2036 x3.6 18 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
Trend towards densification, especially for Low Cost Carriers All Airlines average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight LCCs average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight 170 170 165 160 150 143 150 156 160 150 143 155 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 2006 2011 2016 100 2006 2011 2016 19 Note: Aircraft capacity above 100 seats and below 210 seats Source: OAG September of each year, Airbus GMF
A320 Family cabin enablers can raise A320 Family seat counts by up to 10% Slim-line seats Space-Flex New rear galley configuration Smart-Lav New lavatory design New doors rating Increased exit limit Airbus Cabin-Flex A321neo new door configuration A319 156 160 seats A320 180 189 seats A321 220 240 seats 20
A320 deliveries above 180 seats (% total deliveries) 60% 50% Densification trend 40% 30% 20% Airlines are choosing cabin enablers to increase seat count beyond 180 seats 10% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Airbus 21
A320 Family deliveries A319 A320 A321 100% 80% 13% 16% 18% 21% 31% 37% 41% Upsizing 60% 40% 74% 73% 73% 71% 62% 57% 59% The single-aisle market continues to move towards higher capacity aircraft 20% 0% 13% 11% 8% 8% 7% 5% 1% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Airbus, End December 2016, includes NEO 22
A321 growing in popularity 65% of net orders 41% of deliveries of Airbus single aisles in 2016 were A321s 23
Capacity Range Fuel per seat A321neo vs. 737 MAX 10 +10 seats +1,000nm 10% lower A321neo Up to 240 seats & 4,000nm range with unbeatable fuel efficiency 24
A330neo beats the 787 on comfort, fuel and economics at $20m to $25m lower capital cost 25
A350 XWB 25% lower operating cost fuel burn CO 2 emissions Compared to previous generation 26
10% of all Heathrow passengers In 2016, 10% of all passengers at London Heathrow travelled on 54 daily A380 flights* * Inbound and outbound 27
New rear stair 14 seats Upper deck door 3 deactivation* 8 seats Upper deck sidewall stowage removal 6 seats New forward stair* 20 seats A380 new revenue enablers Over 80 additional seats with same comfort level as current deliveries Economy class at 11-abreast Premium Economy Class at 9-abreast 23 seats Combined crew rest compartment 3 seats 11 seats * Project development study 28
Backlog development 2007-2016 2007 End 2016 Airbus 2,533 51% Boeing 2,455 49% X 2.5 Airbus 6,874 55% Boeing 5,715 45% X 2.7 X 2.3 Industry backlog 4,988 aircraft Industry backlog 12,589 aircraft Data to end December 2016
Net market share last 10 years Airbus 9,995 53% Boeing 8,978 47% Data to end December 2016
Summary Drivers Strong & resilient passenger traffic growth As air transport develops, new drivers become more significant Middle-class to almost double by 2036 31
Summary Traffic forecast Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years Airbus traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. 32
Summary Fleet forecast 34,900 new deliveries by 2036: ~34,170 passenger aircraft 730 freighters 40% of new deliveries for replacement, 60% for growth Single-aisle: 71% of units Wide-bodies: 54% of value 33
Summary Airbus Family A321 an ideal entry-point into medium to long-haul markets A330neo & A350XWB: the lowest total cost widebody family with superior comfort levels A380: The solution for future traffic growth 34