EDB Sonoma County Economic Development Board Cotati Chamber of Commerce economy 2010-11 CITY OF COTATI: LOCAL ECONOMIC REPORT E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t B o a r d 4 0 1 C o l l e g e Av e n u e S u i t e D S a n ta R o s a C A 9 5 4 0 1 ( 7 0 7 ) 5 6 5-7 1 7 0
Table of Contents 1 Letter & Highlights 2 Population & Employment 3 Projections 4 Residential Real Estate 5 Commercial Real Estate 6 Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales 7 Education 8 Sponsors Page
City of 2 Cotati: 010 Local Economic Report November 2010 The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board, is pleased to bring you the 2010 City of Cotati Local Economic Report. Most data used in this report is specific to Cotati, but when Cotati specific data was unavaliable, data for both Cotati and Rohnert Park was used as the best alternative. Highlights from this Local Economic Report include: Between 2000 and 2010, median household income in Cotati increased 23.1%. Over the next five years, median household incomes are projected to climb an additional 8.1%, to just over $66,000. The Cotati/Rohnert Park area is one of the most affordable places to live in Sonoma County. Total home sales reflect this trend, as total unit sales for Q2 2010 in Cotati/Rohnert Park were the third highest in the county. The Cotati economy is expected to perform in line with the rest of Sonoma County. Improvements in the labor market are expected to lag improvements in its core industries. Thank you for your interest in the EDB reports. As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at (707) 565-7170. Sincerely, Ben Stone Executive Director 2010 Sonoma County Economic Development Board. The Economic Development Board (EDB) believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but the EDB does not guarantee that this report is accurate or complete.
Population & Employment The City of Cotati's seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 10.7% for September 2010, just above the county average over the same quarter. Cotati s unemployment is up considerably from September 2008, when the unemployment rate was 6.1%. While Cotati s unemployment rate has surpassed the national rate, it remains below that of California. Over the past five years, the population of Cotati has increased, though at a slower rate than it did during the first half of the decade. Between 2000 and 2005, Cotati s population increased by 850, while in the next five years Cotati added just 150 residents. Over the past two decades, the population of Cotati has increased by 1,700 residents. The City of Cotati s sector employment percentage largely matches the county. The largest discrepancies are with Services (3.3% less than the county), Agriculture/Mining (2% less), and Construction (2.1% more). Cotati Sector Employment, 2010 0.3% % Unemployed 12% 10% Cotati Seasonally Unadjusted Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sept. 2010: 10.7% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov) 7,800 City of Cotati Population 45.3% 4.7% 10.1% 8.6% 3.9% 13.1% 7,600 7,400 2010: 7,476 8.5% 1.9% 3.7% 7,200 Agriculture/Mining Wholesale Trade Fin/Ins/Real Estate Construction Retail Trade Services Manufacturing Trans/Utilities Public Administration Information Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com) 7,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: California Dept. of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. (www.dof.ca.gov) 2
Population & Income Projection 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% From 2000 to 2010, per capita income in Cotati increased 30.7% to $31,629. Per capita income is total income divided by population. Cotati s per capita income is slightly below Sonoma County s which is $33,664 in 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, median household incomes in Cotati grew by 23%. Over the next Cotati is expected to climb roughly 8% to $71,400. As income in Cotati rose during the past decade, the percentage of households earning less than $50,000 was reduced by 15%. The percentage of middle-earning households ($50,000 to $100,000 per year) remained relative stable while households earning over $100,000 increased greatly from 11.7% to 25.5%. households in Cotati earning less than $50,000 is expected to decrease 7.7 percentage points. The percent of households making above $100,000 is expected to increase by 7.5% with middle-earning households maintaining the same percentage of households. <$15,000 $15,000-$24,999 $25,000-$34,999 $35,000-$49,999 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Per Capita Income City of Cotati 2010: $31,629 '00 '10 '15 Median Household Income City of Cotati $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $50,000-$74,999 2010: $66,083 30.7% Increase Since 2000 12.3% Projected 5-year Increase 23.1% Increase Since 2000 $30 8.1% $20 $10 Projected 5-year $0 '00 '10 15 Increase City of Cotati Households by Income $75,000-$99,999 3 $100,000-$149,999 $150,000-$199,999 2000 2010 2015 $200,000+ Source ALL: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)
Residential Real Estate Cotati s median home sales price decreased roughly $50,000, or 16% on a year-over basis between 2008 and 2009. This is the fourth consecutive year of decline after nearly a decade s worth of strong price advances. However, housing levels in over two decades. The total number of homes sold in Cotati and Rohnert Park has been increasing since it reached a low in 2007. The price drops across Sonoma County have been fueling house sales, according to a recent report by Moody s Economy.com. The average sale price of homes in Cotati and Rohnert Park was just under $300,000, almost the least expensive area in Sonoma County. Cotati/Rohnert Park and North Santa Rosa had the greatest number of homes sold in the second quarter of 2010. Median Sales Price of an Existing Home Sold In Cotati/Rohnert Park ($ Thousands) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1000 900 800 700 600 500 2009: $261,050 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Total Number of Homes Sold 2009: 582 31.2% Increase Since 1999 49.3% Decrease Since 05 39.2% Increase since sep 07 20.2% 400 Increase Since sep 08 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 $1000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) and Total Sales by Sub-County Area, Q2 2010 Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) County Average Price ($ Thousands) Total Unit Sales (Right Axis) 250 200 150 100 50 $0 SW Santa Rosa Cotati/Rohnert Park NW Santa Rosa Russian River SE Santa Rosa Clover dale Windsor Oakmont East Petaluma NE Santa Rosa West Petaluma Penngrove Sonoma Sebastopol Costal Sonoma Sea Ranch Healdsburg Source ALL: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com) 0 4
Real Estate & Construction Cotati and Sonoma County Residential Owner-Occupied Housing 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 40.1% 55.3% 30% Cotati 20% 10% Sonoma County 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 63.3% 59.4% 57.8% '00 '10 '15 Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com) Cotati and Sonoma County Residential Housing Vacancy 40.1% 4.9% 55.3% 7.1% 133% Increase Since 2000 Cotati Cotati has experienced a downward trend in owner-occupied housing. A lower percentage of residential owner-occupied housing indicates a negative trend in home ownership rates. Cotati s residential vacancy rates remain below the county average, though they are projected to increase further to 7.1% in 2015. Five-year projections suggest the renter occupancy rate remain the same. The value of building permits, which reflect trends in construction activity, are at 10-year lows in Cotati. Both residential and non-residential construction are down considerably from their respective highs of 26.2 million and 27.8 million in 2003. Since 2006, residental building permit value has decreased 97% and non-residental has decreased 95%. 2% 0% 2.1% '00 '10 '15 Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com) Sonoma County Value of Residential & Non-residential Building Permits In Cotati ($ Millions; Includes Alterations and Additions) $30,000 Residential Non-residential Thousands of Dollars $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 2009: $1,123,400 2009: 392,400 $0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Source: Construction Industry Research Board (www.cirbdata.com) 5
Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales The category of taxable sales in Cotati has been in decline since 2007. All across Sonoma County, taxable sales have been falling. Sales have decreased 33.9% in Cotati since the peak in 2007. Compared to the national average, Cotati residents spend considerably more per capita on housing and food away from home. They spend considerably less on apparel and retail goods. The largest consumer purchases are for general retail goods, shelter, food at home, and health care. Cotati Total Taxable Sales $200 $150 $100 2009 Total: $132,234,000 $50 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov) 18.5% Decrease Since 08 35.7% Increase Since 00 2009 City of Cotati Consumer Spending by Commodity General Retail Goods $70,030,214 (36.4%) Shelter $48,125,914 (25%) Food at Home $13,028,592 (6.8%) Health Care $10,377,190 (5.4%) Food Away from Home $9,681,111 (5%) Entertainment & Recreation $9,682,096 (5%) Travel $5,682,571 (3%) Household Furnishings & Equip. $5,405, 676 (2.9%) Apparel & Services $5,031,351 (2.6%) Investments $4,626,750 (2.4%) Education $3,736,863(1.9%) TV, Video, & Sound Equipment $3,653,947 (1.9%) Vehicle Maintenance $2,795,173 (1.45%) Computers & Accessories $672,912 (0.35%) General Retail Goods 6 Shelter Food at Home Health Care Food Away from Home Entertainment & Recreation Travel H.H. Furnishing, Equipment Apparel & Services Investments Education TV, Video, & Sound Equipment Vehicle Maintenance Computers & Accessories Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)
Education The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) adjusted high school dropout rate for the Cotati- Rohnert Park Unified School District (9.8%) is below the state average (18.9%). Students identifying as Caucasian, which make up 63.8% of the district s student population, had a dropout rate of 8.3%. These rates do not reflect students transferred to alternative schools. There are fewer English learners in the Cotati-Rohnert Park School District than the Sonoma County average. The percentage of English learners has increased by nearly 80% over the past decade in Sonoma County, when in 2001, the percentage of English learners was just 15.1 percent. Compared to the State of California, Rohnert Park s percentage of English language learners is growing faster, but is still considerably below the state average of 24.2 percent. SAT scores for college-bound high school graduates in Cotati- Rohnert Park rank near the middle of Sonoma County school districts, but well above the state and national averages. Average Total SAT Scores by School District, 2008 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 West Sonoma County Union Santa Rosa City Petaluma Joint Union Sonoma County Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified Healdsburg Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Windsor Unified U.S. 1664 1654 1604 1601 1584 1582 1568 1531 1511 West Sonoma County Union Petaluma Joint Union Adjusted NCES High School Dropout Rate, 2007-2008 Santa Rosa City 6.1% 9.7% 9.8% 10.5% 11.4% 11.8% 16% 15.5% 16% *The NCES defines dropout as students who do not achieve a diploma or GED during their first four years of high school. Roseland Charter Healdsburg Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Cloverdale Unified Windsor Unified Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified Santa Rosa City English Learners By District 2008-2009 21.4% 17.7% 15.6% 25% 37.7% 32.9% 64.9% State 1500 Petaluma Joint Union 15.6% Cloverdale Unified Roseland Charter 1486 1194 West Sonoma County Union Source: ALL Educational Demographics Unit, CA Department of Education 3.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 7
EDB Sonoma County Economic Development Board With Acknowledgment and Appreciation to Local Key Businesses Supporting Sonoma County Economic Development: Director Executive Sponsor County of Sonoma General Services, Real Estate Division County of Sonoma Board of Supervisors Sonoma County Health Services Sonoma County Transportation & Public Works