AXS-Alphaliner Survey - AXS-Alphaliner - The worldwide reference in liner shipping Liner Market Shares 2008 Short version - For the full version, please contact us at commercial@axsmarine.com This survey examines the evolution of the global liner market shares of large carriers, based on the liner/container shipping fleet monitored by Alphaliner and published at www.axs-alphaliner.com. These market shares assessments provide benchmarks for the liner shipping industry. Extracts of this survey can be reproduced provided that the source is appropriately mentioned. In case of doubt, thanks to contact us.
April 2008 APM-Maersk to break the 2 million teu mark The A.P. Møller-Maersk operated fleet*, is to break the 2 million teu mark at the end of April 2008, according to figures compiled by Alphaliner. APM-M has thus doubled its fleet since it passed the One million teu mark in December 2004. After some difficult times during which it saw its global market share recede from 18.2% to 16.0% in the wake of the purchase of Royal P&O Nedlloyd, APM-Maersk is now bouncing back. During the first four months of 2008, its operated fleet grew by 6.3%, which is the best growth rate achieved among the TOP 5 carriers, as illustrated by the below table. TOP 5 fleet progression on latest 4 months 1 st Jan-30 Apr 2008 APM-Maersk * 6,3% MSC 4,2% CMA CGM Group * 2,0% Evergreen Line 1,1% Hapag-Lloyd 1,1% All five 3,9% Notes : APM-Maersk includes Maersk Line, Safmarine and MCC Transport CMA CGM Group includes CMA CGM, Delmas (with OTAL), ANL, US Lines, Cagema, Feeder Associate System, MacAndrews, Cheng Lie Navigation Co and CoMaNav Source : Alphaliner This fleet growth allowed Maersk to regain market share, growing from just over 16.0% to 16.3% during the first four months of 2008. However, since the recent wave of deliveries came to an end in April, the carrier s share is now expected to stagnate for a few months. It may even slide back again, unless high cargo volumes prompt the line to charter in additional ships. / Liner Market Shares Page 2 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
Liner Market Shares Page 3 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
Maersk s remarkable comeback can be explained by a change in management and strategy as well as massive deliveries of newbuildings. During the first four months of 2008, no less than 20 newbuildings -owned or long term chartered- have joined the Maersk Line and Safmarine fleet, for a total capacity of 113,000 teu. Furthermore, Maersk has ceased to release or to sublet ships, except for a trio of 5,500 teu units to be released in mid-2008, for which the charters were not renewed. To the contrary, it is to recover at the end of April, the 4,546 teu HIJAZ (ex MAERSK DIADEMA alias VIKTORIA WULFF), which has been sublet to UASC for the past 18 months. Maersk has also been active again on the charter market, although exclusively for ships under 2,100 teu. During the first four months of 2008, the carrier has either chartered in or extended some 40 ships. It has also exercized some ten options at advantageous rates, half of them in the 2,500-4,500 teu range. However, the line has been inactive on the ordering side for a while, although in this respect, it is far from alone. Carriers are obviously taking a breath after last year s hectic ordering activity, with a total of 3.6 Mteu ordered for a contractual value of USD 53 bn, according to Alphaliner figures. Credit tightening and a bearish economic outlook presently weigh on the ordering decision process. Hardly 350,000 teu have been ordered since 1 st January. With a declared orderbook reaching only 340,000 teu (end April), APM-Maersk is not in a position to maintain its market share over 16% in the medium term (2009-2011), unless a vigorous chartering activity helps to keep the pace at which rivals MSC and CMA CGM are to grow, with unrivalled orderbooks hovering around the 600,000 teu figure for each of them. However, perhaps APM-Maersk has hidden plans. Especially as the Odense shipyard is underloaded for the years 2009 and beyond. Liner Market Shares Page 4 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
AXS-Alphaliner ANNUAL MARKET SHARE SURVEY AS AT 1 st JANUARY 2008 LEADING TRIO CONTROLS ONE THIRD OF LINER MARKET The global market share of the three world leading lines, Maersk Line, MSC and CMA CGM, has grown from 32.1% to 34.1% in terms of TEU capacity during the year 2007, according to the latest figures published by AXS-Alphaliner. Taking the eight-year old figures at 1 st January 2000 as a comparison, the three leading lines at the time, Maersk Sealand, Evergreen and P&O Nedlloyd, had a combined market share of 23.7%. However, the growth in 2007 has been far from being equally shared by the three leading lines, as Maersk Line continued to lose ground while MSC and CMA CGM continued to strengthen their positions, as reflected in the below table and graph. Quite remarkably, MSC and CMA CGM are among the very few carriers which are family businesses and thus do not have to bow to shareholder pressure. They are also the best placed to still increase their market share, with huge orderbooks dwarfing by far those of rivals. Market Share progression on 24 months Jan 2006-Jan 2008 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Maersk Line 18,2% 16,8% 16,1% MSC 8,6% 9,8% 10,4% CMA CGM Group 5,6% 6,5% 7,6% All three 32,4% 33,2% 34,1% Source : Alphaliner Liner Market Shares Page 5 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
THE MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION DURING 2000-2008 Between January 2000 and January 2008, the teu capacity deployed on liner trades has more than doubled. It has risen from 5,150,000 teu to 11,696,000 teu, i.e. a 127% increase, according to AXS- Alphaliner data. This means that in order to simply keep their market shares stable during that period, carriers had to increase their fleet capacities by 127%. Those who failed to invest, or charter, enough to keep pace have lost market share. The graph next page illustrates the performances of a selection of carriers among the TOP 30 lines. It is based on the ratio between market shares at 1 st January 2000 and 1 st January 2008. For example, CSCL s market share rose from 1.67% to 3.69%, i.e. an increase of 120.1%, as its fleet grew by 400% during the past 8 years (i.e. an average annual growth of 22.3%). Market shares are deducted from the existing on board teu capacities of carriers, compared to the total capacity effectively deployed on liner trades (these figures take into account cellular ships, multipurpose ships and roro ships which are effectively employed on regular liner services, and they DO NOT include ships which are operated OUTSIDE liner trades, even if these ships are teu-fitted). Alphaliner computes total market capacity and the carriers individual market shares on a daily basis. These figures are published online in our AXS-Alphaliner TOP 100 page, which is free to access. As clearly illustrated by our figures and the below graph, the three rising stars of this decade so far are CMA CGM, MSC and CSCL. This trio even deserves a particular mention as these lines grew mostly organically, although CMA CGM bought a few niche carriers. Fourth in the ranking comes Hapag-Lloyd. The carrier substantially raised its market share thanks to the 2005 purchase of CP Ships by its parent company TUI AG, for merging within the Hapag-Lloyd business. Liner Market Shares Page 6 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
ANALYSIS BY CARRIER The analysis by carrier is illustrated by a series of graphs showing the evolution of the fleets of 21 carriers since 1996 and of their market share since 1 st Jan 2000, the date at which Alphaliner started to compile the latter figure on a regular basis. The full market share survey includes comments on the evolution of the market share of individual carriers, and assess how their current orderbook will affect their future positions. The full survey can be ordered from AXSMarine. Please contact us at commercial@axsmarine.com. Liner Market Shares Page 7 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
Liner Market Shares Page 8 of 9 Alphaliner 2008
Alphaliner is an independent consultancy providing an exhaustive and permanently updated inventory of all the world liner services, with their description, including detailed rotation and ships deployed. A full section is dedicated to the liner operators, with trading profiles, fleets and orderbook. Detailed descriptions of all the world containerships are provided, together with their commercial history and their current status. This data is available by subscription at www.axs-alphaliner.com, a website elaborated by AXSMarine to harbor Alphaliner data and providing sophisticated tools to handle this data. Liner Market Shares Page 9 of 9 Alphaliner 2008