US AIRLINE COST AND PRODUCTIVITY CONVERGENCE: DATA ANALYSIS William S. Swelbar October 25, 2007 0
US AIRLINES: A Tale of Two Sectors US Network Legacy Carriers Mainline domestic capacity (ASMs) is almost 20% lower today than in 2000 shifts to smaller aircraft and commuter airlines Bankruptcies at US, UA, DL and NW have reduced excess capacity, allowed for labor cost reductions and increased productivity AA and CO have re-structured to remain competitive without Chapter 11 (CO stock value doubled in 2006) All network carriers have also shifted capacity to international routes Low Cost Carriers LCC share of domestic passengers has increased to over 26%, from 16% in 2000 and only 5% in 1990 But unit cost advantages of new entrants tend to disappear as both aircraft and employees mature Continued ASM growth is to maintain lower unit costs, but not clear there are enough market opportunities for all of the narrow body aircraft on order by LCCs. 1
Legacy and Low Cost Airlines LEGACY AIRLINES LOW COST AIRLINES AA American Airlines UA United Air Lines DL Delta Air Lines CO Continental Airlines NW Northwest Airlines US US Airways Legacy group carried 70% of total US airline traffic in 2006. WN Southwest Airlines HP America West Airlines B6 JetBlue Airways FL AirTran Airways F9 Frontier Airlines NK Spirit Airlines These airlines carried another 19% of US traffic. 2
Unit Cost Convergence? Depends on what costs are included in comparisons LCCs still have lower total unit costs than NLCs at all stage lengths But NLC reported costs include Transport-related payments to regional commuters Important to get to true mainline to mainline comparison The unit cost gap has narrowed dramatically If we exclude these Transport-related payments and fuel NLCs have seen large drops in labor and other cost components Heading towards cost convergence with LCCs? Legacy unit costs will continue to decrease in the short term, although new profits will make labor negotiations even tougher Difficult for LCCs to keep costs from going up aging fleets and employees 3
CASM Breakdown CASM can be broken down as follows: Transport Related and Fuel expenses excluded for comparisons TOTAL CASM Transport Related Fuel CASM ex. Transport & Fuel Labor CASM Non-labor CASM 1 2 3 4 5 4
Unit Cost (CASM) by Airline Group TOTAL Unit Costs appear to be diverging, but this comparison includes Transport Related Expenses paid by NLCs to commuters, and is misleading. 0.140 0.130 CASM ($/ASM) 0.120 0.110 $4 $/ASM 0.100 0.090 0.080 0.070 0 $6 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 5
Unit Costs (excl. Transport Related ) Exclusion of Transport Related Expenses paints a different picture in unit costs, and shows some recent convergence. 0.110 CASM ex-transport ($/ASM) 0.100 $0 0.090 $2 $/ASM 0.080 0.070 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 6
Unit Costs (excluding Transport & Fuel Expense) Excluding both Transport Related and Fuel costs reveals greater convergence (Southwest s fuel hedging and NLCs older fleets). 0.110 CASM ex-transport & Fuel ($/ASM) 0.100 0.090 $/ASM 0.080 0.070 $3 $3 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 7
Non-Labor Unit Costs (excl. Transport, Fuel and Labor) Gap in Non-Labor, Non-Fuel, Non-Transport unit costs remains 5 0 5 $/ASM 0 5 0 $0 $1 5 0 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 8
Labor Unit Costs while Labor Unit Cost gap has almost been eliminated by NLC cuts and LCC labor cost increases. 5 0 5 $/ASM 0 5 0 $2 $0.003 5 0 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 9
Labor v. Non-labor Unit Cost Reductions Fuel is now the largest single expense to an airline Not limited to the US Increase in fuel expense over the past 5 years has dwarfed the savings gained from labor The relationship between labor and non-labor costs will certainly be an important economic discussion as labor negotiations restart Very different stories for each carrier Concern is whether cost reductions in each area can be sustained Again very different stories for each carrier Significant questions remain as to just how much more non-labor cost cuts can be made given network configurations, infrastructure/airspace issues and finding the supply/demand balance that can sustain industry profitability 10
Labor & Non-labor CASM Network Legacy Carriers (NLCs) Most recent bankruptcies: DL & NW 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 DL Prior bankruptcies: UA & USHP 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 UA No bankruptcies: AA & CO 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 AA NW 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 USHP 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 CO 11
Labor & Non-labor CASM Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) What Happens to Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran as Growth Slows? B6 F9 FL 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 0.07 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 NK TZ WN 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 12
A Different Story for Each Carrier Annual Run Rate Labor Cost Change $ Millions Peak Labor CASM Annual Run Rate Non-Labor Cost Change $ Millions Peak Non-Labor CASM $1,000 $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 UA 2002 DL 2003 AA 2002 USHP NW 2003 CO 2003 B6 2000 FL F9 NK TZ 2002 WN $500 $0 -$500 AA UA USHP CO 2002 F9 WN B6 2002 DL FL TZ 2002 NW 2002 NK -$1,000 -$1,000 -$1,500 -$1,500 -$2,000 -$2,000 -$2,500 -$2,500 -$3,000 -$3,000 Peak CASM is defined as highest unit cost since. Annual expense reduction calculated using 2006 ASMs. 13
What a Difference 5 Years Makes Lower costs + improved productivity (+ revenue premium) = Return to profitability for NLCs Network Legacy Carriers have been re-structuring, shifting capacity, and cutting costs while improving productivity In 2006, the network legacy carriers were once again more profitable than the LCC sector (operating profits) Aircraft productivity gains are part of the explanation Legacy airlines utilization (block hours/day) increasing after big decline, but LCC aircraft utilization still 12% higher Legacy carrier aircraft ASMs/day have surged, due to use of larger aircraft on longer (international) routes But Low-Cost carriers have also increased stage length and maintain advantages in turn times, non-hub services. 14
AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION BH/AC Day (Hours) 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 Hours 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 15
Employee Productivity Has Also Increased Measured in ASMs per employee per period Increases in this measure can be driven by both fewer employees and larger aircraft, longer stage lengths In addition to less restrictive work rules, etc. Legacy carrier employee productivity is up almost 35% since 2000, but still lags LFAs 25% reduction in legacy workforce Salary & benefit gap with LFAs has narrowed dramatically ASMs produced per dollar of salary + benefits is converging also 16
ASM per Employee Both sectors have made huge gains in employee productivity ASMs/employee up by 35% since 2000, but LCCs still 16% higher. ASM/Employee (ASMs) 2,900,000 2,700,000 2,500,000 ASM 2,300,000 2,100,000 1,900,000 1,700,000 1,500,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 17
Gap in Salaries/Benefits per Employee Disappeared in 2006 $Salary&Ben / Employee ($) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 $ 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NLC LCC 18
Recent Trends: Legacy vs. Low Cost Significant turn-around by US Legacy carriers Chapter 11 bankruptcy actions by US, UA, DL and NW Similar shifts at AA and CO without Chapter 11 Focus on cost cutting and improved productivity 35% increase in employee productivity in both NLC and LCC sectors Huge cost savings in distribution, passenger service Heading towards cost convergence with LCCs? NLC unit costs decreasing, while LCC costs will face upward pressure aging fleets and employees Tremendous NLC success in cutting labor costs could pose problems in upcoming labor negotiations, and raises questions of sustainability 19