Educational inequality in Mozambique Servaas van der Berg (Resep, Stellenbosch University) Carlos da Maia (World Bank) Cobus Burger (Resep, Stellenbosch University) WIDER conference on Poverty and Inequality in Mozambique, Maputo 27-28 November 2017
Educational inequality Three areas of focus: Attainment (history) Attendance (current), repetition and drop-out Quality (cognitive outcomes) Three dimensions of inequality: By gender By location (region/province/urban-rural) By wealth grouping (socio-economic status, SES) Some issues arising: Teachers: Numbers Quality Effort Expansion of school system 2
Data sources Census 2007 DHS 1997, 2003, 2009, 2011 IOF (Inquérito ao Orçamento Familiar) 2014/15 SACMEQ II 2000 & SACMEQ III 2007 Annual Census of Schools (EMIS) Ministry of Education 2016 Gr3 Portuguese Test 3
Where we are today Deep structural problems show the effect of colonial history & the civil war The war s effect on education was particularly strong in Northern and Central Regions Rapid expansion of access in post-war period, stimulated by Free Primary Education 4
Impact of the civil war on the destruction of the school network Province Schools Existing in 1983 Destroyed or closed by 1992 Number % Niassa 508 352 69 Cabo Delgado 542 109 20 Nampula 1 116 535 48 Zambézia 1 130 997 88 Tete 479 454 95 Manica 225 109 48 Sofala 386 253 66 Inhambane 506 220 44 Gaza 546 169 31 Maputo Province 339 204 60 Maputo City 109 0 0 Total 5 886 3 402 58 Source: Da Maia 2012, adapted from Ministry of Education (1996: 40) 5
BENEFITS OF EDUCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT 6
Level of education and position in the labour market, 2014/5 Source: Mozambique Income and Expenditure Survey 2014/15 7
Age and number of births for different levels of mother s education Source: Derived from DHS2011 8
EXPANSION OF ATTAINMENT AND ENROLMENT 9
Gross and Net Enrolment Rates, 1997-2009 Source: Da Maia 2012, adapted using data from Mozambique Education Statistics 1998 2009 10
Number of Gr 6 pupils, SACMEQ II & SACMEQ III Provinces SACMEQ II 2000 SACMEQ III 2007 %-change Niassa 5 317 13 944 162 Cabo Delgado 4 660 21 184 355 Nampula 14 514 40 692 180 Zambézia 13 722 46 396 238 Tete 7 269 23 561 224 Manica 7 986 23 786 198 Sofala 9 192 29 861 225 Inhambane 12 531 29 935 139 Gaza 12 063 27 059 124 Maputo Province 10 257 32 397 216 Maputo City 24 827 30 429 23 Total 122 338 319 243 161 Source: Derived from SACMEQ II & SACMEQ III 11
Level of education reached by birth year based on 2014/15 survey 12
% of population never accessing school (Panel A) and completing at least primary school (Panel B) by birth cohort: Mozambique in regional context 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % of population with no education by birth year 0% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Botswana Lesotho Namibia South Africa Swaziland Mozambique 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % that have completed primary education (Gr7) by birth cohort 0% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Botswana Lesotho Namibia South Africa Swaziland Mozambique 13
INEQUALITY IN ATTAINMENT AND ENROLMENT 14
Percentage of population with no education by birth cohort by main region (Panel A), by province (Panel B) and by gender (Panel C) 15
Net primary and secondary enrolment rates by gender and by region, 1997, 2003 & 2011 Male Female North Central South National Primary schools EP1 1997 53.9% 48.4% 44.6% 42.2% 67.0% 53.9% 2003 59.7% 53.3% 45.5% 56.6% 79.9% 59.7% 2011 66.9% 67.3% 61.5% 66.5% 80.3% 66.9% EP2 1997 8.3% 8.8% 6.5% 8.8% 11.4% 8.6% 2003 11.4% 9.0% 6.3% 10.8% 17.5% 10.2% 2011 23.4% 25.1% 15.5% 23.1% 43.9% 24.3% Secondary schools ES1 1997 1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 1.3% 3.5% 1.8% 2003 7.4% 6.9% 4.6% 4.8% 12.7% 7.2% 2011 19.9% 21.3% 10.9% 18.2% 39.1% 20.6% ES2 1997 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2003 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 2.5% 1.3% 2011 6.4% 4.8% 3.9% 4.2% 10.3% 5.6% Note: NER for EP1 is % of children aged 6-11 in Gr 1-5; for EP2, % of children aged 12-13 in Gr 6-7; for ES1, % of children aged 14-16 in Gr 8-10; for ES2, % of children aged 17-18 in Gr 11-12. Source: Calculated from DHS surveys. 16
PROBLEMS IN EXPANSION OF ENROLMENT 17
Enrolment by age, 2017 1 000 000 Enrolled 2017 Population 2015 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 18
1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 Enrolment by province, 2017 Panel A Numbers; Panel B Percentages Enrolment by province and grade, 2017 Cidade de Maputo Maputo Gaza Inhambane Sofala Manica Tete Zambézia Nampula Cabo Delgado Niassa 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Enrolment by grade and province, 2017 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade Grade 11 12 Cidade de Maputo Maputo Gaza Inhambane Sofala Manica Tete Zambézia Nampula Cabo Delgado Niassa Source: Own calculations from Annual School Census (EMIS) 19
Number of schools offering various grades, 2017 14 000 12 000 12 291 12 291 12 241 12 068 11 387 10 000 8 000 6 000 7 339 6 624 4 000 2 000 0 854 834 808 464 435 Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12 Source: Own calculations from Annual School Census (EMIS) 20
In Zambezia, 3252 schools offer Grade 1, but only 85 offer Grade 8 and 40 offer Grade 12 21
Main reason for not studying (females aged 15-25) 1997 2003 Got pregnant 10.4 12.1 Got married 16.7 27.9 Take care of children 2.1 7.0 Help family 2.8 2.9 No money 27.3 26.0 Needed to work 1.4 2.0 Studied enough 2.1 1.0 Did not pass admission 8.0 0.4 Does not like to study 6.8 7.1 Does not know 22.4 13.8 Total 100 100 Source: Demographic and Health Surveys 22
Enrolment, teachers & pupil-teacher ratio by region, 2017 Enrolment Teachers (incl. private schools & night shift) Pupil-teacher ratio Niassa 402 137 8 324 48 Cabo Delgado 457 718 8 720 52 Nampula 1 244 154 22 105 56 Zambézia 1 618 156 28 981 56 Tete 617 175 12 152 51 Manica 538 003 12 546 43 Sofala 592 257 11 727 51 Inhambane 459 336 10 570 43 Gaza 430 388 9 180 47 Maputo Province 546 133 10 911 50 Maputo City 350 656 7 197 49 Total 7 256 113 142 413 51 Source: Own calculations from Annual School Census 23
Teacher issues 45% of teachers absent, another 21% not in class teaching (Molina & Martin 2015: vii) 44% of directors absent (Molina & Martin 2015: ix) Only 60% of lower primary teachers could give the correct answer to a simple subtraction problem, 86 55 (Molina & Martin 2015: 14) Teacher pedagogy also weaker than in other African countries where Service Delivery Indicators were developed by World Bank (Molina & Martin 2015: ix) Decomposition of SACMEQ II & III scores shows a drop in intercept, i.e. lower efficiency of school system (Da Maia 2012) 24
QUALITY OF EDUCATION / COGNITIVE OUTCOMES 25
750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 449 Maths & Language scores of top & bottom quarter in SACMEQ III Top Quartile Bottom Quartile 429 483 419 495 449 511 523 558 460 452 458 571 574 532 499 584 474 470 595 600 606 614 518 423 558 629 657 509 511 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Top Quartile Bottom Quartile 454 463 445 425 498 504 510 511 514 460 465 471 471 444 552 553 533 479 579 579 589 594 596 446 540 488 499 541 719 554 26
Performance in Gr.3 Portuguese test (marks out of 24) Density 0.02.04.06.08 0 5 10 15 20 25 Score out of 24 North South Central 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 3% 18% 33% 15% 33% 25% 24% 10% 37% 7% 46% 31% 10% 6% 3% 27% 29% 12% 29% North Centre South Total Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Absent Source: Derived from 2016 Grade 3 test data 27
In conclusion Inequality in education is part of the picture but the dominant picture is one of high drop-out, constraints to access, and low performance of the education system The major dimension of inequality is by location Even the wealthy generally only get limited education of low quality Thus it is more a case of poverty of education than inequality in education 28