Farnborough International Airshow 216 The IBA REVIEW Expectations had been well managed by the OEMs don t expect a deluge of orders at Farnborough week. In fact we did have a deluge but only in rain terms, forcing Monday s flying display to be curtailed. The A32 was the winner of the week in volume terms and though widebody orders were slow, albeit boosted by the 2 747-F orders, the sector itself faces some intriguing dynamics around a cut back in A38 production while stretched versions of the 777-1X and A35-1 are mooted. In terms of bang for the buck, our prize goes to MRJ as they are showing signs of getting to a reasonable interest and a spread of airlines and lessors with the announcement of the 1+1 order from Scandinavian lessor Rockton just a few months after the US lessor Aerolease ordered 1 + 1 LoI and options. Given the deliveries are still two years away, we hope to see more direct sales to airlines and note that Iran continues to attract interest. The engine guys were battling it out LEAP v GTF, and from our discussions it seems the fix for the GTF is making its way to the production line. Youcef Berour-Minarro, one of our analysts, has summarised activity from the show below and I hope you will find it of interest. Phil Seymour, CEO phil.seymour@ibagroup.com Member of ISTAT UK CAA Approval No. UK.MG.622
Farnborough International Airshow 216: The IBA REVIEW 35 firm orders were placed along with 294 Letters of Intent (LoI) / Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and 135 options. Below we provide a summarised order overview followed by a more defined look at orders. Order Overview The narrowbody aircraft segment dominated the order split obtaining 74% of share with the likes of 737 MAX and A32neo aircraft. This was followed by the regional segment with the likes of COMAC ARJ21 and Mitsubishi MRJ aircraft, obtaining 18% of the share. Orders for widebody aircraft were significantly lower, coming in at 46 aircraft (6%). Orders for the turboprop segment were nominal, constituting 2%. In an overall metric, led with just over 55% followed by with 24% as shown in the graph below. Please note this figure includes Firm, MoU and options. If options are excluded from the count, then the split is; (49%) and (3%). In terms of order distribution, airlines/operators comprised 77% of the orders followed by lessors with 17%. The majority of orders came from the Asia Pacific region (74%) with the likes of Air Asia followed by Europe & CIS with 18%. Summary of orders by segment 46: 6% 13: 2% Total orders by OEM 3.4% 1.2% 2.7% Total Orders by OEM.4%.1% 135: 18% 54: 74% Narrow Regional Wide Turboprop 12.3% 24.4% 55.4% COMAC Embraer Mitsubishi Viking Bombardier Dornier Order placement by customer Geographical distribution of total orders 4% 6 Geographical Distribution of Total Orders 5 4 19% 3 2 77% 1 Africa Asia Pacific Europe & CIS Latin America Middle East North America Airline Lessor Unknown Narrow Wide Turboprop Regional T: +44 () 1372 224488 W: www.ibagroup.com 2
Farnborough International Airshow 216: The IBA REVIEW received 21 firm orders, 82 MoU/LoI and 115 options amongst 11 customers as shown in the graph below. Overall, the majority of this figure came from customers in Asia Pacific (69%) followed by Latin America (15%) and Europe & CIS (13%). The orders were dominated by the narrowbody segment (95%) where the A32neo and A321neo as expected, accrued large orders. received 78 firm orders, 1 MoU/LoI and 1 option amongst 11 customers as shown in the graph below. Overall, the majority of this figure came from customers in Asia Pacific (59%) followed by Europe & CIS (32%) and Africa (5%). The orders were dominated by the narrowbody segment (84%) primarily with the 737 MAX. summary 25 2 15 1 5 A32ceo A32neo A321 A321neo A33-3 A33-9neo A35-1 A35-9 summary 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 737 MAX 737 MAX 2 737 MAX 7 737 MAX 8 737 NG 737-8 747-8F 787-9 vs Despitet the breadth of OEMs in attendance this year, there is always the constant anticipation and emphasis on and s respective performances. This year on an overall metric, accrued more orders than. By segment, performed better in the narrowbody segment gaining more neo orders whilst performed better in the widebody segment. received orders/interest from all continents whilst did not receive any orders from Latin America or the Middle East. vs narrowbody orders vs widebody orders 28% 72% 63% 37% T: +44 () 1372 224488 W: www.ibagroup.com 3
Farnborough International Airshow 216: The IBA REVIEW Regionals and Turboprops With Embraer and Mitsubishi both in town, the regional market was well represented and, combined with turbo props, accounted for just under 2% of the total orders at this year s show. Embraer received 1 firm orders, six MoU/LoI and nine options. Bombardier only received three firm Q4 orders from Porter Airlines. Mitsubishi did not receive any firm orders for the MRJ but they did receive 1 MoU/LoI and 1 options. COMAC also did not receive any firm orders but they did receive 9 MoU/LoI from China Aircraft Leasing. Dornier only received one firm order from New Central Air Service whilst Viking received nine firm orders for Twin Otter 4 aircraft. Regional and turboprop summary 1 9 Viking 6% Dornier 1% Embraer 17% Bombardier 2% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 COMAC 61% Mitsubishi 14% Q4 ARJ21 E19 E195-E2 E19-E2 MRJ9 Twin Otter 4 Dornier 228 T: +44 () 1372 224488 W: www.ibagroup.com 4
Farnborough International Airshow 216: The IBA REVIEW Order breakdown table BOEING Air Europa 737 MAX 8 2 Firm - Air Lease Corporation 737 MAX 8 6 Firm - Donghai Airlines 737 MAX 8 25 MoU - 787-9 5 MoU - EgyptAir 737-8 9 Firm - Kunming Airlines 737 MAX 7 1 MoU - Ruili Airlines 787-9 6 Firm - Standard Chartered 737-8 1 Firm TUI Group 737 MAX 8 1 Firm - 787-9 1 Firm 1 Undisclosed Customer (China) 737 MAX 15 MoU - 737 NG 15 MoU - Volga-Dnepr Airlines 747-8F 16 Firm - Xiamen Airlines 737 MAX 2 3 MoU - AIRBUS Aer Lingus A33-3 2 Firm - Air Asia A321neo 1 Firm 1 Air Cote D'Ivoire A32neo 1 Firm - Air Lease Corporation A35-9 3 Firm - A321 1 Firm - Arkia A33-9neo 4 Firm - Germania A32neo 25 Firm 15 GoAir A32neo 72 MoU - Jetstar Pacific A32ceo 1 MoU - Synergy Group A32neo 62 Firm - Virgin Atlantic Airways A35-1 8 Firm - Wow Air A321 4 Firm - BOMBARDIER Porter Airlines Q4 3 Firm - COMAC AVIC ARJ21 3 MoU - China Aircraft Leasing ARJ21 6 MoU - EMBRAER Arkia E195-E2 6 MoU 4 Japan Air Lines E19 1 Firm - Kalstar Aviation E195-E2 5 Firm 5 Nordic Aviation Capital E19-E2 4 Firm - MITSUBISHI Rockton MRJ9 1 MoU 1 TURBOPROPS Longview Aviation Asset Management Twin Otter 4 6 MoU - New Central Air Service Dornier 228 1 Firm - Tara Air Twin Otter 4 3 Firm - T: +44 () 1372 224488 W: www.ibagroup.com 4