Components Forecast & Trends Matthew T. Harman Analyst, Aerospace Industry MRO Arlington, VA
Aviation Week Expense Category Breakdown 2017 Forecast Worldwide MRO Expense Categories 8% Engine Maintenance 9% Components 33% Line Maintenance Modifications Airframe Heavy 23% 27% Aviation Week breaks down the overall MRO Demand into five categories: 1. Engine 2. Components 3. Line Maintenance 4. Modifications 5. Airframe Heavy
Aviation Week Component Definition 2017 Forecast Included: CH21 Air Conditioning & Pressurization CH78 Exhaust Non-Thrust Reverser CH22 Auto flight CH78 Exhaust Thrust Reverser CH23 Communications CH79 Oil CH24 Electrical Power CH80 Starting CH25 Equipment & Furnishings IFE Components CH26 Fire Protection Turboprop Avionics CH27 Flight Controls Turboprop Engine Accessories CH28 Fuel Turboprop Hydraulics & Pneumatics CH29 Hydraulic Power Turboprop Propeller CH31 Indicating & Recording Turboprop Other CH32 Landing Gear CH32 Wheels & Brakes CH34 Navigation CH35 Oxygen CH36 Pneumatics CH49 Auxiliary Power CH73 Engine Fuel Control CH75 Bleed Air CH76 Engine Controls CH77 Engine Indicating Not Included: CH30 Ice and Rain Protection CH33 Lights CH37 Vacuum CH38 Water/Waste CH41 Water Ballast CH45 Central Maintenance System CH46 Information Systems CH52 Doors CH74 Ignition CH83 Accessory Gear Box Multiple Bonded Surfaces
North America Fleet Deliveries & Retirements 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Aircraft Firm Orders Aircraft Forecast Orders Aircraft Retirements North America s demand grows at 1.1%, with 5,450 deliveries and 4,496 retirements.
North America MRO & Fleet Growth vs. World MRO Demand Growth 0.80% 3.90% In-Service Aircraft Growth 1.10% 3.70% North America 10-Year CAGR Worldwide 10-Year CAGR
North America Component Market vs. World Dollar Demand (Billions) $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 North America Worldwide World demand grows at 3.6%, worth $243 billion over 10-years/ North America s demand grows at 0.9%, worth $60 billion.
Top 10 Worldwide Component MRO Demand OEMs 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% Boeing 31% 58% Airbus Bombardier Embraer ATR Douglas Aircraft De Havilland of Canada British Aerospace Fokker Fairchild Aircraft Airbus & Boeing Aircraft 90% of market; with 36% of the market demand attributed to the Boeing 737-6/7/8/9 family.
Top 5 North American Component MRO Demand OEMs 19% 6% 5% 3% Boeing Airbus Bombardier Embraer 67% Douglas Aircraft Airbus & Boeing responsible for 86% of demand out of top 5 manufacturers Source: Aviation Week 2017 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, Copyright 2016
Worldwide Component MRO Demand Wheels & Brakes alone represent 22% of worldwide component MRO demand Top 10 components represent 74% of market worldwide component MRO category With improved de-ice training and awareness of the effects of de-ice fluid on brakes, operators would be able to save significant sums over the lifecycle of an aircraft - Phil Randell, World Aero Managing Director beta.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/better-de-icing-training-and-knowledge-needed-reduce-brake-mro
North America Component MRO Demand 26% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 21% 9% 8% 7% Wheels and Brakes APU IFE COMPONENTS Engine Fuel & Control Equipment / Furnishings Landing Gear Thrust Reversers Flight Controls Navigation Electrical Power Other 21% of component MRO demand in North America is Wheels & Brakes alone, the top 10 is 74% of the category
FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT: www.aviationweek.com/2017forecasts CONTACT: Matt Harman matt.harman@aviationweek.com Source: Aviation Week 2017 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, Copyright 2016