PANAMA AUTOMOBILE MARKET SURVEY Financial Studies Division March 2013 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 I. Automobile Sector
According to the Comptroller General of the Republic s data, as of 2011, the automobile fleet in Panama, amounted to 494,354 cars, i.e. 138 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, a slightly lower number compared to other countries in the region. 550,000 Panama: Automobile Fleet and Vehicles per Thousand Inhabitants Years: 2007-2011 150 350 Number of Cars per Thousand Inhabitants (Last year available) 314 500,000 133 138 140 300 275 450,000 400,000 118 121 127 441,558 471,118 494,354 130 120 110 250 200 150 209 200 184 177 147 138 128 350,000 300,000 396,705 412,625 100 90 100 50 95 94 73 71 71 68 68 57 54 250,000 2007 2008 Parque vehicular 2011 2010 2009 Vehículos por mil habitantes 80 0 Argentina México Brazil Uruguay Chile Costa Rica Venezuela, RB Panamá R. Dominicana Honduras El Salvador Peru Ecuador Colombia Bolivia Guatemala Nicaragua Paraguay Source: Comptroller General of the Republic Source: Comptroller General of the Republic
The province of Panama has 77.72% of the automotive market, followed by Chiriqui (8.75%) and Colon (3.18%). However, the market shares of these provinces is decreasing in favor of the central provinces of Veraguas, Herrera, Los Santos and Cocle (10.04% of the nationwide total). Veraguas 3.13% Colón 3.18% Chiriquí 8.75% Cars on the Road by Province Year: 2011 Los Santos Herrera 2.32% 2.35% Coclé 2.23% Bocas del Toro 0.30% Darién 0.01% Panamá 77.72% Source: General Comptroller of the Republic
The automobile fleet is made up of cars imported mainly from Asia, in the case of new cars, and from the United States, in case of used cars. India 1.48% Germany 5.27% Argentina 1.40% Panama: New Imported Cars Year: 2011 United Kingdom 0.77% China 0.74% Others 1.61% Panama: Used Imported Cars Year: 2011 Spain 0.12% Italy Canada 0.07% 0.48% Japan 0.71% Germany 0.06% Mexico 8.04% South Korea 30.50% Thailand 13.03% United States 14.53% Japan 22.64% United States 98.55% Source: Comptroller General of the Republic Source: Comptroller General of the Republic
In 2012, new car sales reached 8.5%. Hyundai came in first place with a 21.87% market share, dropping Toyota to the second place (Toyota has been the market leader for the last decade). Panama: New Car Sales by Manufacturer Years: 2011 2012 Manufacturer 2011 2012 Units Market Share Units Market Share Hyundai 9,637 20.66% 11,067 21.87% Toyota 9,801 21.01% 10,360 20.47% Nissan 7,980 17.11% 8,145 16.09% Kia 4,776 10.24% 6,190 12.23% Honda 2,366 5.07% 2,532 5.00% Suzuki 1,460 3.13% 1,966 3.88% Chevrolet 1,366 2.93% 1,805 3.57% Ford 989 2.12% 1,310 2.59% Isuzu 1,074 2.30% 1,173 2.32% Mitsubishi 1,344 2.88% 766 1.51% Others 5,851 12.54% 5,295 10.46% TOTAL 46,644 100.00% 50,609 100.00% Source: ADAP Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Overall, most of the segments show increases compared to the previous year. Small vehicles were in first place of sales preference, followed by SUVs, whose sales indicated an aesthetic motive, since the highest demand is for 2-wheel drive cars. 50,000 Panama: New Car Sales Years: 2007 2012 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Otros Minivans Automóviles de lujo Paneles Buses Camiones Pick ups SUV`S Automóviles 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Source: Comptroller General of the Republic
% Variation % Variation New car sales are mostly explained by the performance of the economy. Looking ahead, we estimate that the pace of new car sales will slow to an average growth of 6% in 2013 (the sector estimates around 5%). However, there are other elements that need to be analyzed. Panama: New Car Sales and GDP Period: 2006Q1 2012Q4 50 14 40 30 20 12 10 10 8 0-10 -20-30 2007.T1 2008.T1 2009.T1 2010.T1 2011.T1 2012.T1 6 4 2-40 0 Venta de autos nuevos (eje izq.) PIB (eje der.) Source: Comptroller General of the Republic
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 II. Bank Loans for Automobiles
Millions Thousands Panama: National Banking System Value vs. Quantity of Personal Car Loans Year: 2008 2012 (Balance in millions and quantity of loans in thousands) $800 $700 $600 55.7 60.6 63.1 67.7 75.6 80 70 60 $500 50 $400 40 $300 30 $200 $100 $584.8 $599.8 $619.7 $679.2 $793.1 20 10 $0 2008-Dec 2009-Dec 2010-Dec 2011-Dec 2012-Dec 0 Personal Car Loan Quantity of loans Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 Performance of Car Loans
Panama: National Banking System Growth of Total Personal Car Loans Year: 2008 2012 (percentage) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 16.8% 13.3% 9.6% 2.6% 3.3% 2008-dic 2009-dic 2010-dic 2011-dic 2012-dic Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
3.3% 10.3% 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.4% Panama: National Banking System Personal Car Loans by Rank Year: December 2012 (percentages) 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 58.6% 0-15,000 15,001-20,000 20,001-25,000 25,001-30,000 30,001-35,000 35,001-40,000 40,001-45,000 22.4% 45,001-50,000 50,001-55,000 55,001-60,000 60,001 or over Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
700 600 500 400 300 200 $659.3 Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans, by province Year: December 2012 (in millions of US$) 100 0 $51.8 $23.9 $21.7 $17.0 $9.9 $4.8 $4.6 $0.2 Panama Chiriqui Colon Veraguas Herrera Cocle Bocas del Toro Los Santos Darien Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans Year: 2008 2012 (in millions of US$) 350 300 $320.6 250 $233.4 $235.0 200 150 100 50 $156.7 $184.7 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 Customer Behavior
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Panama: National Banking System Value of Personal Car Loans by Type of Customer Year: 2011 2012 (in millions of US$) $612.6 $22.3 $44.3 $46.5 $19.7 2011-Dec 2012-Dec $726.9 Corporate Retired Non-retired Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 Quality of the Portfolio
Panama: National Banking System Classification of Personal Car Loans Year: 2008 2012 (percentages) 2012-dic 96.1% 3.1% 0.8% 2011-dic 95.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2010-dic 95.1% 3.8% 1.1% 2009-dic 93.1% 5.7% 1.3% 2008-dic 93.9% 4.9% 1.2% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% Vigente Moroso (30 días) Vencido (90 días) Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 Performance by Bank
Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans by Bank and their Annual Variation Year: 2011 2012 (Balance in millions of US$ and percentages) Bank Dec. 2011 Dec. 2012 Absolute Var. % Variation Banco General 153.9 155.6 1.7 1.1% BAC Int Bank 117.4 140.6 23.2 19.8% Global Bank 124.3 134.6 10.4 8.3% Multibank 78.5 95.4 16.9 21.5% HSBC 60.8 87.1 26.3 43.2% Scotiabank 35.0 39.8 4.8 13.6% BBVA Panamá 26.6 27.3 0.8 2.9% Banco Delta 12.2 15.1 2.9 23.6% Capital Bank 9.2 15.0 5.8 63.4% Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans by Bank and their Annual Variation Year: 2011 2012 (Balance in millions of US$ and percentages) Bank 2011 2012 Rate Dec. Rate Dec. % Var. 2011 2012 Banco General 47.9 58.6 22.5% 7.3% 7.2% BAC Int Bank 43.6 55.1 26.4% 6.8% 6.7% Global Bank 41.6 44.3 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% Multibank 25.0 29.2 16.7% 8.1% 8.3% HSBC 24.6 49.7 102.5% 6.7% 6.6% Scotiabank 14.6 16.1 10.8% 6.8% 6.1% BBVA Panamá 5.8 9.4 62.7% 7.0% 7.5% Banco Delta 6.0 6.8 13.2% 11.8% 11.6% Capital Bank 9.0 8.1-9.8% 7.3% 7.2% Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134
Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134 III. Conclusions
Credit to vehicle sector has increased parallel with the growth of the economy. However, we estimate that in the future new car sales will increase at a slower pace. Car loans offer a good rate spread. As of the end of 2012, car loan performance showed strong signs of growth combined with a healthy portfolio quality. It is important to note that these loans have maintained satisfactory levels of financial performance. At the same time, due to the country s favorable macroeconomic scenario, it is expected that portfolio quality indicators will remain stable for 2013. This will allow the credit portfolio to continue its good performance. Ref. No.: SG-TRAD-201300134