Tourism Business Monitor Accommodation Report Wave 5 Post-October half term
Background, objectives and research method Tourism Business Monitor designed to measure, monitor and understand tourism business performance and confidence and the factors which influence them. Amalgamation of two previous surveys discontinued at end of 2011: England Attractions Monitor Accommodation Business Confidence Monitor Telephone survey conducted five times per year immediately following key tourism periods among: c. 500 accommodation establishments (c. 250 serviced / c. 250 non-serviced), including mix by region, establishment size and hotels / guest houses / B&B / self-catering / caravan and campsites. c. 300 visitor attractions including mix by region, attraction type, size (measured by annual visitor admissions) and free / paid admission. Questions on hot topics included on a periodic basis. Fieldwork dates: Nov : 5-12 Nov, reviewing mid-september until the end of the October Sept : 10-17 Sept, reviewing the school summer holidays July : 16-24 July, reviewing the period after the Jubilee bank holiday weekend until mid July June : 11-15 June, reviewing May/ early June period, including Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend Easter : 16-23 April, reviewing January to April period 2
Accommodation sample targets (total 500) % Serviced Accommodation Non-serviced Accommodation 100 Hotels 150 Guest Houses / B&Bs 150 Selfcatering 100 Caravan / Campsites North (North East, North West, Yorkshire) 32 41 38 Midlands (East Midlands, East, Heart of England) 22 29 28 29 South (South East, South West) 36 70 78 44 London 10 9 2 0 25 hotels with over 100 bed spaces 60 guest houses / B&Bs with over 10 bed spaces self-catering with over 10 bed spaces 40 caravan / campsites with over 100 bed spaces This is the target sample for each wave, reflecting the profile of accommodation in England. There are minor variations wave on wave, which are corrected by weighting the profile if needed. 3
Key Findings In September we saw early signs that the accommodation industry may be turning a corner. Two months on business performance is continuing to improve, with visitor numbers now only marginally down on the same period last year (net change of -3%). Admissions have improved across all audiences and business types, especially amongst domestic visitors, with hotels showing most improvement. Most accommodation businesses continue to be reliant on repeat visits o fill bed spaces, although hotels are now seeing a resurgence of domestic and overseas visitors. Despite this, there is limited change in satisfaction levels has post Olympics business failed to live up to expectations? Confidence has fallen back since September, from 82% to 73% very or fairly confident. This is dragged down by non-serviced accommodation, which has limited advance bookings until the end of the year. Optimism of large businesses remains fairly consistent, but smaller venues (less than 100 bed spaces) are less confident following a fall in bookings. Confidence (and advance booking levels) are highest amongst large town/city businesses, who are perhaps more likely to benefit from Christmas festivities. We enter 2013 with some trepidation, with only 51% of accommodation businesses feeling confident about their outlook. However, the early signs of recovery are continuing to sprout, so we can feel cautiously positive for the year ahead. 4
Business Dashboard G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May
Business Performance Dashboard: Accommodation VISITOR NUMBERS Visitor numbers (%) Visitor numbers (%) 41 49 Versus same period previous year Hotels 45 21 34 Down Guest house/ B&B 21 44 18 33 34 Same Up Self-catering 36 38 Nov YTD Caravan/ camping 25 49 SATISFACTION Satisfaction (%) 7 6 16 19 Satisfied with business performance Satisfaction with Performance (%) Hotels 15 67 82 51 55 Not at all Not very Guest house/ B&B 29 47 76 20 Quite Very Self-catering 27 50 77 Nov YTD Caravan/ camping 11 54 65 Q3/4, Q7/8, Q6, Q10 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov : From mid-september until the end of October 6
Business Confidence Dashboard: Accommodation Very confident Fairly confident 82 86 85 81 75 81 83 79 74 82 73 56 46 45 53 59 63 42 47 46 50 48 40 40 28 16 18 41 32 28 32 25 W1 2011 May 2011 July 2011 Sept 2011 Nov 2011 Jan Easter June July Sept Nov Very confident Fairly confident 80 68 69 74 55 37 41 59 25 31 28 15 Nov Hotels Nov B&B Nov Nov Caravan/ Self catering Camping NOV Q13 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR FUTURE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE Nov : Period until end of the year 7
Visitor profile G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May
Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Accommodation Up Same Down NET: Up - Down 31 28 31 31 32 Up 28 Down 41 38 Domestic visitors Nov-12 24 41-11 20 May 2011 25 Jul 2011 29 Sep 2011 15 20 Nov 2011 Jan 22 Easter Jun 14 Jul 18 Sept 24 Nov Up Down 27 33 27 25 30 32 34 33 Overseas visitors Nov-12 21 46 33-12 25 25 23 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 28 Nov 2011 22 21 Jan Easter 23 22 Jun Jul 19 21 Sept Nov Up Down Nov-12 32 59 10 +22 32 32 31 8 10 10 19 28 32 10 Repeat visitors May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan Easter Jun 14 13 Jul Sept Nov Q12 9
Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Accommodation type Most accommodation businesses continue to be reliant on repeat visits to fill bed spaces, although hotels are now seeing a resurgence of domestic and overseas visitors. Up Same Down Domestic visitors (YTD) Hotels 36 29 NET: Up - Down +6 Guest Houses / B&Bs 22 40 38-16 Domestic visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping 16 24 52 48 24 0-32 Overseas visitors (YTD) Hotels 30 50 20 +10 Guest Houses / B&Bs 21 39 40-19 Overseas visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping 18 12 47 49 41 33-15 -29 Repeat visitors (YTD) Hotels 43 53 3 +40 Guest Houses / B&Bs 27 59 13 +14 Repeat visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping 27 28 65 57 15 8 +19 +13 Q12 10
Past performance G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May
Visitor numbers: Year-on-year changes Post October half term, accommodation venues are reporting some improvement in performance. However half of accommodation venues are still down on year-to-date visitor numbers compared with the same period in 2011. % Nov 7 6 Up Slightly up Exactly same YTD 28 5 18 5 44 Slightly down Down 60 40 20 0-20 33 30 23 22 33 33 Up Down -40-60 -36-38 Easter June -53-53 July Sept -41 Nov -49 YTD PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov : Mid-September until the end of October/ Sept : School summer holidays/ July Jubilee bank holiday weekend until mid July/ June : May and early June until after Jubilee Bank Holiday Q3/4, Q7/8 12
Visitor Numbers: Year-on-year changes (%) Although overall the accommodation market is still down on last year s visitor numbers by -3%, this is an improvement compared with reported figures post summer holidays, where businesses were down -6% for the summer holiday period and -7% for year-to-date. YTD Nov % 2 1 1 4 1 2 7 19 14 7 6-11 -9-11 -14-8 -9-3 -4-5 -3-3 -1 Increase Over 50% 31-50% 21-30% 11-20% 5-10% Less than 5% Decrease Less than 5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% Over 50% NET % change (increase decrease) - 3% - 3% Q5, Q9 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov From mid-september until the end of October 13
Case Study: Bramble Corner 11-20% increase in visitors during YTD compared with the same period in 2011 Word of mouth is important for us we get a lot of repeat business. Because our guesthouse is right in the village the locals know about us, so if there are any parties or weddings that happen in the area people would, and have, recommended their loved ones to stay here. We ve also managed to extend that word of mouth to the online environment and have seen an increase in bookings over the past few months associated with some really good reviews on sites such as Trip Advisor. A friendly guesthouse that understands the importance of word-of-mouth recommendation Village guesthouse accommodation East of England 4 star Sleeps up to 10 We've recently re-done our website and we advertise with laterooms.com and eviivo, which have also helped to bring in more bookings. We like to do little extra things for our guests like recommending places in the local area to visit, giving people tea and cake when they arrive and even doing people s laundry if they need it! I like to think we re friendly and approachable as hosts, and I think as long as we maintain standards we ll keep being recommended and getting good ratings online and therefore good levels of new as well as repeat visitors. 14
Positive verbatim comments on business performance: Accommodation Weather and hiring a lot of staff has improved on our performance We provide damn good service and work hard to keep our customers coming back We have just subscribed to booking.com and they provide us with bookings, which has helped A more pro-active sales approach. That's probably it - just raising awareness of our business. I just think because we have improved the product, the website and the marketing we are now a more established business. Q11 15
Negative verbatim comments on business performance: Accommodation The doom and gloom of the recession and Christmas coming up After the Olympics there are more people visiting London rather than the Lake District Because of the recession, Nanny and Granddad aren't coming on holiday as they are babysitting their grandkids whilst Mummy and Daddy go to work The Olympics and the weather was a big factor. The economy was a huge factor because people did not have the disposable income. The weather forecast was unpredictable also People that normally leave their caravans here in the past, they would have come every weekend, but now they come once every month because they cant afford the 50 petrol to come here Q11 16
Visitor numbers: Year-on-year changes by accommodation type Down Slightly down Hotels continue as the most resilient accommodation sector, whilst caravan/camping sites are still suffering from the effects of the temperamental weather this year. Same Slightly up Up % Hotels % B&B % % Self catering Caravan/ Camping 31 7 5 15 21 3 5 46 41 36 41 8 5 21 22 6 10 45 1 25 5 31 7 36 7 46 58 3 6 9 6 7 25 25 24 19 19 19 YTD Nov YTD Nov YTD Nov YTD Nov Q3/4, Q7/8 17
Visitor numbers: Degree of year-on-year changes by accommodation type There are improvements across the board in terms of NET % change in visitor numbers, with hotels now on par with visitor levels for the equivalent period last year Hotels YTD Nov B&B YTD Nov Increase Over 50% 31-50% 21-30% 11-20% 5-10% Less than 5% 5 2 8 1 29 28 10 6-9 -10-17 -11-7 -11-1 -1 1 1 5 9 15 10 6 10-12 -9-11 -10-8 -9-5 -4-3 -2-5 0% 0% -3% -4% Decrease Less than 5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% Over 50% NET % change Self catering YTD Nov 1 42 21 6 16 9 4 4-8 -7-10 -16-5 -2-8 -6-5 -3-3 -2 Caravan/ Camping YTD Nov 12 16 41 3 6 7 7-9 -18-13 -11-9 -14-5 -7-8 -2-5 -2-3% -3% -7% -5% Q5, Q9 18
Changing business performance: By accommodation type & bed spaces Business is up pretty much across the board, but not so for satisfaction. Has post Olympics business failed to live up to expectations? ACCOMMODATION TYPE 43 29 28 Easter % Visitors up on last year 48 29 17 40 45 34 24 24 21 17 25 12 16 June July Sept Nov Hotel Guest / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping % Very satisfied 46 41 40 37 39 33 28 31 31 32 28 31 24 29 25 18 11 13 Easter June July Sept Nov BED SPACES 24 24 % Visitors up on last year 51 24 20 20 20 37 38 17 29 Up to 10 bedspaces 11-100 bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces 45 45 % Very satisfied 34 33 36 31 21 9 33 32 32 31 21 Easter June July Sept Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Q3/4, Q6 19
Changing business performance: By accommodation location Satisfaction levels have dipped significantly for small town and seaside venues, despite the overall improvement in performance. % Visitors up on last year % Very satisfied 42 36 30 29 45 33 31 25 32 31 28 23 25 19 18 44 34 30 Seaside Large town or city Small town Countryside / village 42 42 40 42 34 33 32 22 30 19 18 41 38 28 34 24 20 Easter June July Sept Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Q3/4, Q6 20
Future performance G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May
Advance booking levels: Accommodation Advance booking levels have dipped, reflecting the season and no doubt contributing to the lower confidence levels of accommodation businesses. % 3 5 5 5 7 9 11 15 13 14 Very poor Poor 23 30 30 31 39 Just OK Good 34 Very good 33 29 33 29 20 21 18 11 Survey conducted: Period asked about: Easter June July Sep-12 Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Until after Jubilee bank hol Until start of summer hols Until end of summer hols Until end of October Until end of the year Q14 22
Confidence for forthcoming period: By accommodation type Advance bookings are down across the board, although B&Bs remain reasonably confident. Caravan/ campsites seem to have given up hope for following a continued decline in advance bookings. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year 53 % Very confident 45 32 24 31 37 25 24 39 29 27 31 28 25 15 Hotel Guest house / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS % Very good / good 73 70 63 66 56 52 49 48 62 49 46 44 62 53 52 37 46 38 34 Hotel Guest house / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 23
Confidence & bookings for forthcoming period: By accommodation size We see a convergence in confidence across different sized accommodation venues. Optimism of large businesses remains fairly consistent, but smaller venues (less than 100 bed spaces) are less confident following a fall in bookings. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year 52 % Very confident Up to 10 bedspaces 42 28 34 31 19 29 27 25 11-100 bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS 64 79 55 65 50 55 % Very/ fairly good 52 56 48 49 46 45 39 36 Up to 10 bedspaces 11-100 bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 24
Confidence for forthcoming period: By location Confidence and advance booking levels are highest amongst large town/city businesses, who are perhaps more likely to benefit from Christmas festivities. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year % Very confident 45 40 36 37 41 38 29 34 38 30 33 29 25 30 18 33 25 24 17 Seaside Large town or city Small town Countryside / village Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS % Very/ fairly good Seaside 72 67 63 62 63 61 50 48 58 49 48 45 63 62 47 49 54 34 32 Large town or city Small town Countryside / village Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 25
Positive verbatim comments on business confidence: Accommodation I think the West is getting a lot of rain, so people are phoning us up because they can t get on campsites because it s so muddy, so we re picking up that business. I feel quite confident. Business is good and the Christmas markets will make it pick up even more because people will be staying here Hopefully it should be good because we are leading up to Christmas and the Christmas period should bring Christmas parties and bookings and also Christmas meals We are feeling very confident about our business as we have just opened a new building We have full capacity with the student lets. The amount of students coming into the city is a huge factor for us. We also have government funding to build an extension of our hotel Q19
Negative verbatim comments on business confidence: Accommodation The Premier Inns/Travel Inns are taking over the trade I don't think we've got anyone else booked in at all, just probably because noone's got any money Low confidence in the economy may have negative affects - businesses are collapsing I think its going to be much worse than last year due to the economic downfall making things worse We have got a lot of competition now. The weather is a huge factor and people are going abroad more often because it is cheaper abroad. I used to have regular guests coming 3 times a year and now this year it is only once because of the money Q19 27
Expectations for business performance in 2013: Factors expected to affect performance next year There appears to be a lot of uncertainty about what 2013 will bring. Overall it seems the expectation is for more of the same, but with a slight improvement driven by the domestic market. 2013 business confidence compared to 11 40 42 5 2 Much better Slightly better The same Slightly worse Much worse 51% 7% Is that because you are expecting? Is that because you are expecting? More domestic visitors 56 Fewer domestic visitors 67 More overseas visitors 22 A worse profit margin 42 A better profit margin 19 Fewer overseas visitors Other 31 Other 24 Q15, Q16a, Q16b 28
Performance and confidence snapshot: November Visitor Numbers (November) Visitor Numbers (Year-to-date) Confidence (End of the year) Type (%) Bed-spaces (%) Grading (%) Location (%) Up Same Down Up Same Down Very Very / fairly TOTAL (%) 33 41 34 18 49 25 73 Hotel 45 21 34 49 15 37 25 80 Guest / B&B 21 44 32 22 46 31 68 Self catering 36 38 29 25 46 28 69 Caravan / camping 25 49 9 65 15 75 Up to 10 29 45 22 42 25 68 11-100 38 29 17 53 25 77 Over 100 38 20 42 49 3 48 27 74 5 star 9 42 49 9 21 70 39 77 4 star 37 20 43 34 16 50 25 70 1-3 star 37 25 38 30 22 48 25 72 Budget / other 32 27 41 40 15 45 23 75 Seaside 34 40 31 16 53 24 66 Large town / city 44 31 25 47 17 37 33 89 Small town 34 22 45 37 15 48 17 74 Rural 30 25 45 31 19 49 25 72 30