Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 100619-ECA The Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS) Update Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ENHANCING REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY Identifying Impediments and Priority Remedies ANNEXES September 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized
2015 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund under the Western Balkans Investment Framework. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the Contributors to the European Western Balkans Joint Fund or the EBRD and the EIB, as co-managers of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. Short extracts from this publication may be reproduced unaltered without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights, licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher; the World Bank, 1818 H street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org
Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a World Bank team based on a study undertaken by the consortium of Systema Transport Planning & Engineering Consultants Ltd and WYG with financing from the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF). The Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (DG Move) of the European Commission (EC) provided overall direction. The World Bank (WB) core team was led by Baher El-Hifnawi and consisted of Liljana Sekerinska, Evgenia Epaneshnikova and Nargis Ryskulova. The extended team included Artan Guxho, Desa Stanić, Dragana Varezić, Elda Hafizi, Emre Eser, Ivana Bojić, Luan Aliu, Jean-Francois Marteau, Alexandar Rowland and Senad Sačić. The Systema/Wyg team was led by Dimitrios Tsamboulas and Athanasios Ballis and included Maja Popovic, Michael Thomas, Lauri Ojala, George Emmanoulopoulos, Keith Cook, Yanni Papapanagiotou and Natalia Tselenti. The study benefitted from comments from the Peer Reviewers: Ana Simecki (DG NEAR, EC), Benedictus Eijbergen, Doerte Doemeland, Olivier Le Ber and Shomik Mehndiratta; and Raymond Bourdeaux (World Bank). World Bank Management: Juan Gaviria, Ellen Goldstein and Andras Horvai provided guidance and comments on the successive report versions. The team would like to express its appreciation to the SEETO Steering Committee and its Secretariat for many discussions and comments provided during the course of the study. The team would particularly like to thank the Secretariat for the coordination role it played with the Regional Participants and for providing access to data and information, without which the study would not have been possible. Thanks are also due to the many government officials from the SEETO Regional Participants and Croatia who took the time to attend progress review meetings and comment on the different reports and versions. The Bank team is grateful for the guidance received from Alain Baron and Florian Achleitner of the EC s DG Move as well as from other EU Directorates and EU Delegations to SEETO Regional Participants. The Bank team would also like to thank the team for the EU-financed study: Accessibility improved at border crossings for the integration of South East Europe (ACROSSEE) for fruitful discussions and for sharing data and results from the study.
Abbreviations and Acronyms AADT Average Daily Traffic AEO Authorized Economic Operator BCP Border Crossing Point BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina C/BC Customs and border crossings CEF Connecting Europe Facility CEFTA Central European Free Trade Agreement DG Directorate General EC European Commission EEA European Economic Area ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle IATA International Air Transport Association IM Inter/multimodal transport IMF International Monetary Fund IPA Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance IRU International Road Transport Union IT Information technology IWW Inland Waterways LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MAP Multi Plan M/IWW Maritime and/or Inland Waterways NC National Coordinators NCTS New Computerized Transit System OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development REBIS Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study RO-RO Roll-on/Roll-off Passenger RP Regional Participants SC Steering Committee SEE South East Europe SEETO South East Europe Transport Observatory SQL Structured Query Language TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit TTF Trade and Transport Facilitation TTFSE Transport Facilitation Projects in South East Europe WB WBIF World Bank Western Balkans Investment Framework Regional Vice President: Country Director: Senior Director: Practice Manager: Project Team Leader: Cyril E. Muller Ellen Goldstein Pierre Guislain Juan Gaviria Baher El-Hifnawi
Table of Contents ANNEX I: REBIS Growth Rates... 1 ANNEX II: Model Results Do-nothing Scenario... 12 ANNEX III: Model Results the Full SEETO Scenario... 66 ANNEX IIIa: Sections with Highest Traffic Projections /Traffic Growth... 105 ANNEX IV: Comparison between the Do-nothing and the Full SEETO Scenario... 109 ANNEX V: Capacity Considerations for the Road Network... 140 ANNEX VI: Road Section Grouping by Intervention... 142 ANNEX VII: Possible Interventions to Increase Capacity of the Railway Network.. 152 ANNEX VIIa: Rail Section Grouping by Intervention... 154 ANNEX VIII: Comparison of Capacities Against Traffic Flows in for Maritime and River Ports... 160 ANNEX IX: Assessment of the 2003 REBIS Traffic Projections... 169 List of Tables Table AI 1. GDP Growth Rates per Country/Regional Participant (percentage)... 3 Table AI 2. Key Variables Projection to (GDP, Population (POP) and Employment (JOB)) by Country and by Traffic Zone... 5 Table AI 3. Growth Factors for Air Transport... 10 Table AI 4. Growth Factors for IWW Transport... 10 Table AI 5. Growth Factors for Maritime Ports... 11 Table AII 1. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network... 13 Table AII. 2. Do-nothing Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network... 28 Table AII. 3. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Rail Network... 43 Table AII. 4. Do-nothing Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Rail Network... 48 Table AII. 5. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes IWW (low/moderate economic rate)... 53
Table AII. 6. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes IWW (moderate/high economic rate)... 53 Table AII. 7. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes River ports (low/moderate economic rate)... 54 Table AII. 8. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes River ports (moderate/high economic rate)... 55 Table AII. 9. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Seaports (low/moderate economic rate)... 55 Table AII. 10. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Seaports (moderate/high economic rate)... 56 Table AII. 11. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate... 57 Table AII. 12. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate... 58 Table AII. 13. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports Direct and Indirect Traffic for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate... 59 Table AII. 14. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports Direct and Indirect Traffic for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate... 62 Table AIII. 1. Full SEETO Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Road Network... 67 Table AIII. 2. Full SEETO Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Road Network... 81 Table AIII. 3. Full SEETO Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Rail Network... 95 Table AIII. 4. Full SEETO Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Rail Network... 100 Table AIIIa. 1.Road Sections with the Highest Traffic Flows for and/or Highest Growth Rates for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario... 106 Table AIIIa. 2.Road Sections with the Highest Traffic Flows for and/or Highest Growth Rates for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario... 106 Table AIIIa. 3. Rail Sections with the Highest Traffic Projections in for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario... 107 Table AIIIa. 4. Rail Sections with Highest Growth in Number of Passengers in for the Low/Moderate Rate Scenario... 107 Table AIIIa. 5. Rail sections with Hhighest Growth in Number of Tons in for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario... 107 Table AIIIa. 6. Rail Sections with the Highest Traffic Projections in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario... 107 Table AIIIa. 7. Rail Sections with Highest Growth in Number of Passengers in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario... 107 Table AIIIa. 8. Rail Sections with the Highest Growth in Number of Tons in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario... 108
Table AIV. 1. Comparison Results for the Road Network (low/moderate economic rate)... 110 Table AIV. 2. Comparison Results for the Road Network (moderate/high economic rate)... 121 Table AIV. 3. Comparison Results for the Rail Network (low/moderate economic rate)... 132 Table AIV. 4. Comparison Results for the Rail Network (moderate/high economic rate)... 136 Table AV. 1. Modified Estimated Capacity Levels for 2x2-Lane Highway in AADT Vehicles/Day... 141 Table AV. 2. Modified Estimated Capacity Levels for High Class 2-Lane Road in AADT Vehicles/Day... 141 Table AVI. 1. Proposed Interventions for the Existing SEETO Comprehensive RoadINetwork for both Economic Growth Scenario... 144 Table AVIIa. 1. Rail sections with Minor Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 155 Table AVIIa. 2. Rail Sections with Significant Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 156 Table AVIIa. 3. Rail Sections with Major Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 156 Table AVIIa. 4. Rail Sections with Minor Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 157 Table AVIIa. 5. Rail Sections with Significant Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 158 Table AVIIa. 6. Rail Sections with Major Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario... 158 Table AVIII. 1. Comparison of Calculated Maritime port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts for the Low/Moderate Scenario... 161 Table AVIII. 2. Comparison of Calculated Maritime Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts for the Moderate/High Scenario... 162 Table AVIII. 3. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Serbia (low/moderate scenario)... 163 Table AVIII. 4. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Croatia (low/moderate scenario)... 164 Table AVIII. 5. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Bosnia & Herzegovina (low/moderate scenario)... 165 Table AVIII. 6. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Serbia (moderate/high scenario)... 166 Table AVIII. 7. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Croatia (moderate/high scenario)... 167 Table AVIII. 8. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Bosnia & Herzegovina (moderate/high scenario)... 168
ANNEX I: REBIS Growth Rates Annex I: Growth Factors 1
Introduction: Estimation of Growth Rates 1. A transport planning model was developed to forecast transport flows from/to SEETO Regional Participants and Croatia for year. 2. Socio-economic data for the base and future years is used to forecast transport flows in a specific area. In this model, the socioeconomic variables included gross domestic product (GDP), population size and number of jobs. With regard to estimating the base year freight flows, historical data, provided by several sources such as EUROSTAT, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, is used. Concerning projections for the future year of, projections for the variables mentioned above are developed. The data used and the process followed for the projection of GDP, Population and Jobs for years are described below. GDP 3. The GDP of each zone is considered a major factor affecting transport flows. GDP projections for 2014, 2015 and 2019 are based on the IMF s 2014 World Economic Outlook. Projections from 2020 to were developed by the study team in consultation with the World Bank team taking into account current and recent economic conditions in the region and the prospects given the stages of economic development of the different countries. Higher rates were used to reflect higher intensity of economic activities in zones (e.g. capitals, ports, industrial areas, etc.). 4. The economic rates of the past few years were taken into account and adjusted upwards to reflect the negative rates in some countries/regional Participants at the present time. These were adjusted to reflect a long-term sustainable rate given the stage of the economic development. GDP rates were estimated for two scenarios: low/moderate and moderate/high. Table AI.1 below presents the annual rate projections for each of the Regional Participants/countries. 5. The estimated rates have been used for the estimation of GDP of the zones included in the model. 6. For the zones that belong to one or more countries, the GDP rate was set equal to the average of GDP rates of the countries included. 7. The GDP rate of inner zones, which are part of one Regional Participant, was estimated based on GDP rate of the country with following adjustments made. More specifically, the GDP rate has been adjusted upwards for the following types of areas/ zones: o o o o Capitals of countries/ major cities Port areas/ ports Touristic areas Industrial areas (determined based on the development plans of the examined countries where available). Annex I: Growth Factors 2
8. Finally, the rate of the remaining areas has been adjusted downwards to maintain the same average rate of each country as initially estimated. 9. The adjustment of the rate has been refined based on experts input in order to reflect the expected in the different areas. Table AI. 1. GDP Growth Rates per Country/Regional Participant (percentage) Projections Average (2020-) 2013 2014 2015 2019 Low/ Moderate/ Moderate High Albania 1.1 1.4 2.1 3 4.7 2.46 3.23 Bosnia and Herzegovina -1.2 2.5 0.4 1.5 4 1.79 2.46 Croatia -2.2-0.9-0.8 0.5 2 0.93 1.65 Kosovo 2.8 3.4 2.5 3 4 2.70 3.60 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia -0.4 2.7 3.5 3.5 4 2.89 3.84 Montenegro -2.5 3.3 1.5 3.4 3 2.41 3.18 Serbia -1.5 2.6-2 -0.5 3 1.11 1.83 Sources: Actual figures for -2013 and projections for 2014-15 and 2019 are based on: IMF. (2014) World Economic Outlook: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties. Available from: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/ average projections for the period 2020- are based on study team s assessment and consultation with the World Bank team. Population 10. Population projections for each of the regional percipients/countries were obtained from the World Bank s population datasets. 1 The estimated rates have been used for the estimation of population of the zones included in the model. 11. Concerning the zones including one or more countries, the rate of population has been set equal to the average of the particular rates of the countries included. 12. Population rate of inner zones, which are part of one country, was estimated based on population rate of the country with following adjustments made. More specifically, the GDP rate has been adjusted upwards for the following types of areas/ zones: o Capitals of countries/ major cities o Touristic areas 1 The World Bank. (2013) Population Estimates and Projections. Available from: http://datatopics.worldbank.org/hnp/popestimates Annex I: Growth Factors 3
o Selected port areas (based on their specific characteristics) 13. As in the GDP analysis, the adjustment of the rate has been refined based on experts input in order to reflect the expected in the specific areas. Finally, the rate of the remaining areas has been adjusted downwards to maintain the same average rate of each country as initially estimated. Employment 14. The third socio-economic variable used in the model is called JOBS, representing the employment in the examined areas. There are no datasets for future projections of employment. Therefore, employment rates were estimated based on accepted empirical relationships between economic and employment (employment intensity). The rate of the employment in the examined areas for year has been estimated according to the estimates of employment intensity for Europe and OKUN s empirical formula (OKUN s law: an empirically observed relationship between unemployment and economic in each country). More specifically, a two percent increase or decrease of GDP was projected to lead to a one percent increase or decrease of employment in the examined areas. Based on this assumption, the accumulated rate of the employment has been estimated, based on the accumulated GDP rate, estimated for each zone, and using the formula mentioned above. 15. However, considering that the formula would not always represent the existing situation appropriately and in order to avoid an overestimation, an upper limit of the estimated employment was determined. This was based on the principle that the full employment could not exceed the 60 percent of total population. As a result, in cases that the estimated employment of a zone exceeded the 60 percent of population, the variable was set equal to 60 percent of the zone s population. Annex I: Growth Factors 4
Table AI 1. Key Variables Projection to (GDP, Population (POP) and Employment (JOB)) by Country and by Traffic Zone Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB 1 Bosnian Podrinje 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 2 Central Bosnia 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 3 Herzegovina-Neretva 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 4 Posavina 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 5 Sarajevo 1.71 1.10 1.22 1.98 1.21 1.34 3.02 0.531 3.158 4.68 1.065 3.705 6 Tuzla 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 7 Una-Sana 1.58 0.95 1.18 1.82 1.05 1.28 2.59-0.259 2.646 4.07 0.271 3.190 8 West Bosnia 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 9 West Herzegovina 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 10 Zenica-Doboj 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 11 Banja Luka 1.63 0.99 1.20 1.87 1.09 1.30 2.74-0.056 2.821 4.28 0.475 3.367 12 Doboj 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 13 Bijeljina 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 14 Vlasenica 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 15 Sarajevo-Romanija 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 16 Foca 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 17 Trebinje 1.37 0.95 1.12 1.53 1.05 1.18 1.76-0.259 1.712 2.90 0.271 2.252 18 Grad Zagreb 1.71 1.02 1.25 2.11 1.12 1.43 3.02 0.110 2.646 5.10 0.642 3.190 19 Zagrebacka zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 20 Krapinsko-zagorska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 21 Varazdinska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 22 Koprivnicko-krizevacka zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 23 Medimurska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 Annex I: Growth Factors 5
24 25 Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Bjelovarsko-bilogorska zupanija Viroviticko-podravska zupanija Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 26 Pozesko-slavonska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 27 Brodsko-posavska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 28 Osjecko-baranjska zupanija 1.54 0.94 1.19 1.86 1.04 1.34 2.45-0.330 2.086 4.24 0.199 2.628 Vukovarsko-srijemska 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 29 zupanija 30 Karlovacka zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 31 Sisacko-moslavacka zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 32 Primorsko-goranska zupanija 1.54 0.99 1.19 1.86 1.09 1.34 2.45-0.056 2.086 4.24 0.475 2.628 33 Licko-senjska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 34 Zadarska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 35 Sibensko-kninska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 36 Splitsko-dalmatinska zupanija 1.49 0.98 1.17 1.78 1.08 1.31 2.24-0.112 1.887 3.92 0.418 2.428 37 Istarska zupanija 1.11 0.94 1.04 1.23 1.04 1.09 0.58-0.330 0.445 1.41 0.199 0.978 Dubrovacko-neretvanska 38 zupanija 1.49 0.99 1.17 1.78 1.09 1.31 2.24-0.056 1.887 3.92 0.475 2.428 39 Kotor 1.57 0.99 1.17 1.80 1.09 1.26 2.53-0.056 1.909 3.98 0.475 2.450 40 Tivat 1.57 0.99 1.17 1.80 1.09 1.26 2.53-0.056 1.909 3.98 0.475 2.450 41 Budva 1.57 0.99 1.17 1.80 1.09 1.26 2.53-0.056 1.909 3.98 0.475 2.450 42 Bar 1.69 0.99 1.21 1.96 1.08 1.31 2.97-0.084 2.278 4.57 0.447 2.821 43 Ulcinj 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 44 Nikšic 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 45 Cetinje 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 46 Danilovgrad 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 47 Podgorica 1.72 1.02 1.22 2.00 1.12 1.32 3.07 0.110 2.372 4.72 0.642 2.916 Annex I: Growth Factors 6
Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 48 Pljevlja 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 49 Plužine 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 50 Žabljak 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 51 Šavnik 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 52 Bijelo Polje 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 53 Mojkovac 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 54 Kolašin 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 55 Berane 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 56 Andrijevica 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 57 Rožaje 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 58 Plav 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 60 Shkodër 1.52 1.08 1.15 1.74 1.18 1.24 2.36 0.403 1.293 3.74 0.936 1.831 61 Kukës 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 62 Lezhë 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 63 Dibër 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 64 Durrës 2.00 1.15 1.30 2.33 1.27 1.43 3.93 0.779 2.278 5.79 1.315 2.821 65 Tirana 2.00 1.22 1.30 2.33 1.34 1.43 3.93 1.111 2.278 5.79 1.648 2.821 66 Fier 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 67 Elbasan 1.70 1.02 1.21 1.96 1.13 1.31 2.99 0.131 1.681 4.57 0.662 2.221 68 Berat 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 69 Vlorë 1.52 1.09 1.15 1.74 1.20 1.24 2.36 0.480 1.293 3.74 1.013 1.831 70 Gjirokastër 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 71 Korçë 1.52 1.02 1.15 1.74 1.13 1.24 2.36 0.131 1.293 3.74 0.662 1.831 72 Grad Beograd 1.79 0.98 1.28 2.10 1.08 1.42 3.30-0.112 1.887 5.08 0.418 2.428 73 Borski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 74 Branicevski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 Annex I: Growth Factors 7
Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 75 Jablanicki okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 76 Kolubarski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 77 Macvanski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 78 Moravicki okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 79 Nišavski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 80 Pcinjski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 81 Pirotski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 82 Podunavski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 83 Pomoravski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 84 Rasinski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 85 Raški okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 86 Šumadijski okrug 1.50 0.90 1.17 1.72 0.99 1.28 2.27-0.584 1.247 3.70-0.056 1.785 87 Toplicki okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 88 Zajecarski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 89 Zlatiborski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 90 Srednje-banatski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 91 Severnobacki okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 92 Severno-banatski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 93 Južnobacki okrug 1.50 0.88 1.17 1.72 0.97 1.28 2.27-0.716 1.247 3.70-0.189 1.785 94 Južno-banatski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 95 Sremski okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 96 Zapadno-backi okrug 1.20 0.88 1.07 1.35 0.97 1.14 1.01-0.716 0.528 2.03-0.189 1.062 97 Prishtine 1.98 1.30 1.29 2.36 1.43 1.43 3.85 1.468 2.821 5.89 2.007 3.367 98 Gnjilane 1.60 1.08 1.18 1.87 1.19 1.28 2.66 0.439 1.856 4.25 0.972 2.397 99 Mitrovice 1.60 1.08 1.18 1.87 1.19 1.28 2.66 0.439 1.856 4.25 0.972 2.397 100 Pece 1.60 1.08 1.18 1.87 1.19 1.28 2.66 0.439 1.856 4.25 0.972 2.397 Annex I: Growth Factors 8
Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 101 Prizren 1.60 1.08 1.18 1.87 1.19 1.28 2.66 0.439 1.856 4.25 0.972 2.397 102 Vardarski (provisional code) 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 103 Istocen (provisional code) 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 104 Jugozapaden (provisional 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 code) 105 Jugoistocen (provisional 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 code) 106 Pelagoniski (provisional 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 code) 107 Poloski (provisional code) 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 108 Severoistocen (provisional 1.69 0.98 1.20 1.99 1.08 1.31 2.95-0.111 1.694 4.68 0.419 2.234 code) 109 Skopski (provisional code) 2.07 1.00 1.31 2.49 1.10 1.47 4.13 0.000 2.465 6.27 0.531 3.009 59 Herceg Novi 1.57 0.97 1.17 1.80 1.07 1.26 2.53-0.147 1.909 3.98 0.383 2.450 Source: The World Bank Team estimates Annex I: Growth Factors 9
Table AI 2. Growth Factors for Air Transport Low/Moderate Scenario Moderate/High Scenario Avg GDP rate () rate () in traffic Air passenger factor Avg GDP rate () rate () in traffic Air passenger factor Country - Elasticity - -30 - Elasticity - -30 ALB 2.67 1.20 3.20 1.76 2.67 1.80 4.81 2.33 BIH 1.94 1.20 2.33 1.51 1.94 1.80 3.49 1.85 CRO 1.03 1.20 1.24 1.25 1.03 1.80 1.85 1.39 KOS 2.9 1.20 3.48 1.85 2.9 1.80 5.22 2.50 MKD 3.1 1.20 3.72 1.93 3.1 1.80 5.58 2.66 MNE 2.58 1.20 3.10 1.73 2.58 1.80 4.64 2.26 SRB 1.2 1.20 1.44 1.29 1.2 1.80 2.16 1.47 Source: The World Bank Team estimates 16. The traffic projections for IWW and seaport were estimated using existing () traffic volumes and estimated factors for IWW transport and maritime ports. For IWW only national data for each Regional Participant was used as a model input. Thus, the estimation of traffic projections for the IWW sections is based on a single factor for each Regional Participant, rather than a different factor for each port. These factors were estimated based on GDP and population projections. Avg GDP rate () - rate () in passenger traffic - Table AI 3. Growth Factors for IWW Transport Low/Moderate Scenario Passenger factor - rate () in freight traffic - Freight factor -30 Avg GDP rate () - Moderate/High Scenario rate () in passenger traffic - Passenger factor - rate () in freight traffic - Freight factor -30 Country BIH 1.94 6.16 2.70 2.48 1.39 1.94 7.70 3.38 3.10 1.73 CRO 1.03 4.72 2.25 2.48 1.39 1.03 5.90 2.81 3.10 1.73 SRB 1.2 7.36 3.90 1.92 1.23 1.2 9.20 4.87 2.40 1.53 Source: The World Bank Team estimates (GDP and elasticities) and Consultant s estimates ( factors) 17. For passenger traffic at maritime ports, different factors for each port were used, depending on its characteristics. More specifically, the level of tourism was taken into account, as well as the proximity to significant tourist attractions. To this end, for example, the port of Dubrovnik was assumed to have higher factors due to the fact that the city is a major touristic attraction and is expected to continue to be a major destination for international passenger traffic. For the ports of Ploce and Rijeka, which both have a strong freight orientation, lower factors for passenger traffic were assumed. With regards to the port of Bar, which is the main Montenegro port, it is believed to have a high potential to attract tourist flows with some capacity for cargo, while the port of Durres in Albania is already serving a significant number of passengers. Annex I: Growth Factors 10
Port rate () in passenger traffic - Table AI 4. Growth Factors for Maritime Ports Low/Moderate Scenario rate () Passenger in freight traffic factor - - Freight factor -30 rate () in passenger traffic - Moderate/High Scenario rate () Passenger in freight factor traffic - - Freight factor - 30 Country ALB Durres 2.0 1.16 3.1 1.36 2.5 1.45 3.9 1.70 ALB Vlore 2.0 1.16 3.1 1.36 2.5 1.45 3.9 1.70 CRO Dubrovnik 5.6 1.81 2.2 1.20 7.0 2.26 2.8 1.50 CRO Ploce 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 CRO Pula 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 CRO Rijeka 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 CRO Sibenik 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 CRO Split 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 CRO Zadar 2.8 1.30 2.2 1.20 3.5 1.63 2.8 1.50 MON Bar 2.0 1.16 3.1 1.36 2.5 1.45 3.9 1.70 Source: Consultant s estimates Annex I: Growth Factors 11
ANNEX II: Model Results Do-nothing Scenario Annex II: Model results Do-nothing Scenario 12
Model Results for the Road Network Do-nothing Scenario Table AII 1. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network Country From To SEETO CRO Bosiljevo 2 Ogulin R1.01.01 16,272 13,275 1.14 15,311 12,539 1.12 961 736 1.49 CRO Ogulin Brinje R1.01.02 16,272 12,570 1.44 15,311 11,879 1.42 961 691 1.85 CRO Brinje Zuta Lokva R1.01.03 16,272 12,481 1.48 15,311 11,795 1.46 961 686 1.89 CRO Zuta Lokva Otocac R1.01.04 15,722 12,047 1.49 14,612 11,310 1.43 1,110 737 2.30 CRO Otocac Perusic R1.01.05 15,722 11,786 1.61 14,612 11,049 1.57 1,110 737 2.30 CRO Perusic Gospic R1.01.06 15,722 11,577 1.71 14,612 10,898 1.64 1,110 679 2.77 CRO Gospic Gornja Ploca R1.01.07 15,722 11,531 1.74 14,612 10,847 1.67 1,110 684 2.72 CRO Gornja Ploca Sveti Rok R1.02.01 15,722 12,745 1.17 14,612 11,818 1.19 1,110 927 1.00 CRO Sveti Rok Maslenica R1.02.02 15,722 12,592 1.24 14,612 11,683 1.25 1,110 909 1.11 CRO Maslenica Posedarje R1.02.03 15,722 12,711 1.19 14,612 11,803 1.19 1,110 908 1.12 CRO Posedarje Zadar 1 R1.02.04 15,722 12,094 1.47 14,612 11,203 1.49 1,110 891 1.23 CRO Zadar 1 Zadar 2 R1.02.05 12,278 9,753 1.29 11,292 9,055 1.23 986 698 1.94 CRO Zadar 2 Benkovac R1.02.06 12,278 10,059 1.11 11,292 9,343 1.06 986 716 1.79 CRO Benkovac Pirovac R1.02.07 12,278 9,266 1.58 11,292 8,643 1.50 986 623 2.58 CRO Pirovac Skradin R1.02.08 12,278 8,595 2.00 11,292 7,978 1.95 986 617 2.64 CRO Skradin Sibenik R1.02.09 12,278 8,906 1.80 11,292 8,279 1.74 986 627 2.55 CRO Sibenik Vrpolje R1.02.10 11,015 8,012 1.78 9,885 7,400 1.62 1,130 612 3.46 CRO Vrpolje Prgomet R1.02.11 11,015 8,113 1.71 9,885 7,471 1.57 1,130 642 3.19 CRO Prgomet Vucevica R1.02.12 11,015 7,466 2.18 9,885 6,856 2.05 1,130 610 3.48 CRO Vucevica Dugopolje R1.02.13 11,015 7,519 2.14 9,885 6,911 2.01 1,130 608 3.50 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 13
Country From To SEETO CRO Opuzen Klek R1.04 8,266 5,139 2.68 7,511 4,672 2.67 755 467 2.71 CRO Neum Northwest Neum SouthEast R1.05 8,266 7,511 755 CRO Dugopolje Bisko R1.05.01 8,977 8,346 0.41 8,117 7,810 0.21 860 536 2.66 CRO Bisko Blato (na Cestini) R1.05.02 8,977 6,024 2.24 8,117 5,628 2.06 860 396 4.40 CRO Blato (na Cestini) Sestanovac R1.05.03 8,977 6,194 2.08 8,117 5,794 1.89 860 400 4.34 CRO Sestanovac Zagvozd R1.05.04 8,977 5,200 3.08 8,117 4,889 2.86 860 311 5.81 CRO Zagvozd Ravca R1.05.05 3,930 3,393 0.82 3,070 3,115-0.08 860 278 6.48 CRO Ravca Vrgorac R1.05.06 3,930 2,891 1.72 3,070 2,681 0.76 860 210 8.15 CRO Vrgorac Mali Prolog R1.05.07 3,930 2,942 1.62 3,070 2,675 0.77 860 267 6.71 CRO Mali Prolog Cevljusa R1.05.08 3,930 1,478 5.58 3,070 1,344 4.70 860 134 10.88 CRO XY Zaton Doli R1.06.01 8,266 4,495 3.44 7,511 4,074 3.46 755 421 3.30 CRO Zaton Doli Slano R1.06.02 8,266 4,495 3.44 7,511 4,074 3.46 755 421 3.30 CRO Slano Dubrovnik R1.06.03 11,137 7,637 2.12 10,372 6,699 2.46 764 938-1.13 CRO Dubrovnik Cibasa R1.07.01 18,132 11,872 2.38 17,367 11,492 2.32 764 380 3.96 CRO Cibasa Karasovici R1.07.02 3,459 1,921 3.32 3,227 1,821 3.23 232 100 4.78 CRO Karasovici Karasovici R1.07.03 3,459 1,921 3.32 3,227 1,821 3.23 232 100 4.78 MNE Debeli Brijeg Igalo R1.08 3,459 3,227 232 MNE Igalo Kamenari R1.09 16,109 13,780 2,329 CRO Zadar (port) Zadar Port R1.09.01 7,590 6,160 1.17 7,099 5,746 1.18 491 414 0.95 CRO Sibenik Sibenik R1.09.02 9,127 7,451 1.13 8,676 7,080 1.14 451 371 1.09 CRO Dugopolje Split (port) R1.09.03 28,107 22,308 1.29 24,645 20,589 1.00 3,462 1,719 3.97 MNE Kamenari Raskrnica E65 R1.10 16,109 13,780 2,329 MNE Raskrnica E65 Tivat (airport) R1.10.1 11,104 9,182 1,923 MNE Raskrnica E65 Budva R1.10.2 19,477 11,274 3.08 18,316 10,672 3.05 1,161 602 3.71 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 14
Country From To SEETO MNE Budva Petrovac R1.11 17,266 10,294 2.91 15,991 9,830 2.74 1,274 464 5.77 MNE Petrovac Misici R1.12 13,586 12,311 1,274 MNE Misici Bar R1.13 22,741 20,184 2,558 CRO Pula Vodnjan R10.01.01 7,030 4,535 2.47 6,518 4,316 2.32 511 219 4.82 CRO Vodnjan Kanfanar R10.01.02 7,030 6,036 0.85 6,518 5,729 0.72 511 307 2.88 CRO Kanfanar Zminj R10.02.01 7,030 4,433 2.59 6,518 4,121 2.58 511 312 2.78 CRO Zminj Rogovici R10.02.02 7,030 4,212 2.89 6,518 3,911 2.88 511 301 2.99 CRO Rogovici Ivoli R10.02.03 7,030 5,499 1.37 6,518 5,021 1.46 511 478 0.38 CRO Ivoli Cerovlje R10.02.04 7,030 6,252 0.65 6,518 5,711 0.74 511 541-0.31 CRO Cerovlje Lupoglav R10.02.05 7,030 6,058 0.83 6,518 5,523 0.92 511 535-0.25 CRO Lupoglav Vranja R10.02.06 7,030 6,824 0.17 6,518 6,207 0.27 511 617-1.04 CRO Vranja Veprinac R10.02.07 7,030 7,315-0.22 6,518 6,551-0.03 511 764-2.21 CRO Veprinac Matulji R10.02.08 7,030 7,315-0.22 6,518 6,551-0.03 511 764-2.21 CRO Rijeka Draga R10.04.01 23,061 16,378 1.92 20,610 14,889 1.82 2,451 1,489 2.81 CRO Draga Sveti Kuzam R10.04.02 23,061 13,640 2.96 20,610 12,400 2.86 2,451 1,240 3.86 CRO Sveti Kuzam Bakar R10.05.01 6,713 4,702 2.00 6,354 4,482 1.96 359 220 2.76 CRO Bakar Smrika R10.05.02 6,713 4,702 2.00 6,354 4,482 1.96 359 220 2.76 CRO Smrika Senj R10.06.01 6,713 7,082-0.30 6,354 6,438-0.07 359 644-3.19 CRO Senj Zuta Lokva R10.07.01 4,784 3,528 1.71 4,270 3,118 1.76 514 410 1.26 CRO Okucani Nova Gradiska R2a.01 8,072 3,376 4.96 6,497 2,997 4.39 1,575 379 8.23 BIH Gradiska Klasnice R2a.02 17,870 12,726 1.90 12,247 10,335 0.95 5,623 2,391 4.87 BIH Klasnice Banja Luka R2a.03 35,455 28,368 7,088 BIH Banja Luka Jajce R2a.04 4,720 3,142 2.29 3,696 2,710 1.74 1,024 432 4.91 BIH Jajce Donji Vakuf R2a.05 4,417 2,493 3.23 3,563 2,025 3.19 854 468 3.40 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 15
Country From To SEETO BIH Donji Vakuf Travnik R2a.06 4,417 2,493 3.23 3,563 2,025 3.19 854 468 3.40 BIH Travnik Lasva R2a.07 8,282 13,715-2.76 6,888 12,899-3.43 1,394 816 3.02 BIH Sarajevo Dobro Polje R2b.01 5,371 3,570 2.30 5,158 3,422 2.31 214 148 2.06 BIH Dobro Polje Brod na Drini/Foca R2b.02 2,188 1,943 246 BIH Brod na Drini/Foca Hum R2b.03 4,119 3,308 811 MNE Scepan Polje Pluzine R2b.04 1,175 1,054 121 MNE Pluzine Sipacno R2b.05 4,630 4,030 600 MNE Sipacno Niksic R2b.06 4,630 4,030 600 MNE Niksic Danilovgrad R2b.07 12,111 10,283 1,828 MNE Danilovgrad Podgorica R2b.08 13,972 8,140 3.05 11,888 7,642 2.49 2,084 498 8.28 MNE Podgorica Tuzi R2b.09 14,912 12,454 2,458 MNE Tuzi Bozaj R2b.10 6,672 5,083 1,589 ALB Hani i Hotit Shkoder R2b.11 6,672 475 15.81 5,083 1,589 475 6.94 ALB Shkoder Lezhe R2b.12 14,046 8,327 2.95 9,926 6,426 2.45 4,120 1,901 4.39 ALB Lezhe Milot R2b.13 14,046 10,564 1.60 9,926 8,342 0.97 4,120 2,222 3.49 ALB Milot Mamurras R2b.14 19,463 13,788 1.93 13,856 10,945 1.32 5,607 2,843 3.85 ALB Mamurras Fushe Kruje R2b.15 19,463 13,788 1.93 13,856 10,945 1.32 5,607 2,843 3.85 ALB Fushe Kruje Vore R2b.16 22,016 11,762 3.54 13,856 7,455 3.50 8,160 4,307 3.61 ALB Fier Tepelene R2c.1 6,139 2,932 4.19 2,573 1,254 4.07 3,566 1,678 4.28 ALB Tepelene Gjirokaster R2c.2 5,868 3,299 3.25 4,725 3,154 2.27 1,143 145 12.15 ALB Gjirokaster Kakavija R2c.3 7,403 3,299 4.59 5,393 3,154 3.03 2,009 145 15.73 BIH Sarajevo Pale R3.01 17,038 14,536 2,502 BIH Pale Mesici R3.02 4,474 3,536 1.32 4,232 3,388 1.24 242 148 2.78 BIH Mesici Ustipraca R3.03 2,905 2,626 279 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 16
Country From To SEETO BIH Ustipraca Medjedja R3.04 2,905 2,626 279 BIH Medjedja Visegrad R3.05 6,539 5,271 1,268 BIH Visegrad Donja Vardiste R3.06 2,905 2,626 279 SRB Kotroman Kremna R3.07 2,905 1,011 6.04 2,626 910 6.06 279 101 5.80 SRB Kremna Uzice R3.08 2,905 2,145 1.70 2,626 1,958 1.64 279 187 2.24 SRB Vatin Vrsac R4.01 1,543 1,109 1.85 1,125 964 0.86 418 145 6.06 SRB Vrsac Pancevo R4.02 4,993 4,277 0.86 4,575 3,793 1.05 418 484-0.81 SRB Pancevo Belgrade R4.03 30,155 17,294 3.14 23,595 14,055 2.92 6,560 3,239 4.00 SRB Belgrade Belgrade (Cukarica) R4.04 31,643 22,760 1.85 28,071 20,696 1.71 3,572 2,064 3.09 SRB Belgrade (Cukarica) Orlovaca R4.05 31,643 22,760 1.85 28,071 20,696 1.71 3,572 2,064 3.09 SRB Orlovaca Lazarevac R4.06 15,543 12,938 1.02 13,470 11,272 0.99 2,074 1,666 1.22 SRB Lazarevac Ljig R4.07 10,086 7,777 1.45 8,458 6,406 1.56 1,628 1,371 0.96 SRB Ljig Rudnik R4.08 10,086 6,254 2.69 8,458 4,919 3.06 1,628 1,335 1.11 SRB Rudnik Gornji Milanovac R4.09 14,720 8,863 2.86 12,710 7,390 3.06 2,010 1,473 1.74 SRB Gornji Milanovac Cacak R4.10 14,720 11,894 1.19 12,710 10,307 1.17 2,010 1,587 1.32 SRB Cacak Pozega R4.11 13,371 9,421 1.96 11,799 8,173 2.06 1,572 1,248 1.29 SRB Pozega Uzice R4.12 12,361 9,060 1.74 11,390 8,293 1.78 971 767 1.32 SRB Uzice Nova Varos R4.13 5,686 4,152 1.76 4,943 3,683 1.65 742 469 2.59 SRB Nova Varos Prijepolje R4.14 5,686 3,594 2.58 4,943 3,131 2.57 742 463 2.66 SRB Prijepolje Gostun R4.15 2,719 3,152-0.82 2,036 2,797-1.75 683 355 3.70 MNE Dobrakovo Bijelo Polje R4.16 2,719 2,036 683 MNE Bijelo Polje Mojkovac R4.17 7,648 3,895 3.82 6,276 3,378 3.50 1,372 517 5.57 MNE Mojkovac Kolasin R4.18 7,553 6,209 1,344 MNE Kolasin Mioska R4.19 7,390 5,991 1,399 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 17
Country From To SEETO MNE Mioska Bioce R4.20 7,420 6,028 1,392 MNE Bioce Podgorica R4.21 7,069 4,624 2.39 5,683 4,032 1.93 1,386 592 4.84 MNE Podgorica Virpazar R4.22 11,854 6,391 3.49 10,571 5,940 3.25 1,284 451 5.98 MNE Virpazar Sotonici R4.23 11,854 6,580 3.32 10,571 6,127 3.08 1,284 453 5.96 MNE Sotonici Misici R4.24 11,854 6,673 3.24 10,571 5,015 4.23 1,284 1,658-1.41 SRB Paracin Boljevac R5.01 3,581 2,534 1.94 2,828 2,016 1.90 752 518 2.10 SRB Boljevac Zajecar R5.04.05 3,585 2,603 1.79 3,041 2,209 1.79 543 394 1.80 SRB Zajecar Vrska Cuka R5.06 2,350 1,600 2.16 2,223 1,521 2.13 126 79 2.64 SRB Cacak Kraljevo R5.07 11,088 8,507 1.48 9,550 7,293 1.51 1,538 1,214 1.32 SRB Kraljevo Beranovac R5.08 16,716 13,841 1.05 16,013 13,403 0.99 704 438 2.67 SRB Beranovac Krusevac R5.08.01 10,391 6,708 2.46 9,688 6,133 2.57 704 575 1.13 SBR Krusevac Pojate R5.09 6,795 5,839 0.85 5,696 5,067 0.65 1,099 772 1.98 MNE Bijelo Polje Berane R6.01 6,221 5,255 966 MNE Berane Rozaje R6.02 2,929 2,428 500 MNE Rozaje Spiljani R6.03 3,151 2,789 362 SRB Spiljani Ribarice R6.04 3,151 1,908 2.83 2,789 1,759 2.59 362 149 5.06 SRB Ribarice Banje R6.05 1,407 1,048 1.65 1,277 929 1.78 130 119 0.51 KOS Banje Mitrovice/Mitrovica R6.06 1,407 819 3.05 1,277 695 3.44 130 124 0.28 KOS Mitrovice/Mitrovica Pristina R6.07 24,392 14,068 3.10 20,140 11,937 2.95 4,251 2,131 3.91 KOS Pristina Lipljan R6.08 41,718 28,370 2.17 29,984 22,638 1.57 11,734 5,732 4.06 KOS Lipljan Gerlice/Donja R6.09 33,169 17,423 3.64 25,898 13,903 3.52 7,271 3,520 4.11 Grlica KOS Gerlice/Donja Grlica Kacanik R6.10 13,452 8,896 2.32 10,781 7,098 2.35 2,671 1,798 2.22 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 18
Country From To SEETO KOS Kacanik Hani i R6.11 8,852 3,848 4.74 6,181 3,070 3.96 2,671 778 7.09 Elezit/Djeneral Jankovic MKD Hani i Stenkovec R6.12 6,679 3,246 4.09 6,181 2,948 4.20 498 298 2.89 Elezit/Djeneral Jankovic KOS Pristina Sllatine/Slatina R6b.01 37,897 26,259 2.06 23,729 19,893 0.98 14,168 6,366 4.54 KOS Sllatine/Slatina Peje/Pec R6b.02 4,369 18,705-7.76 3,781 16,001-7.70 588 2,704-8.13 KOS Peje/Pec Beluhe R6b.03 5,237 3,293 2.61 4,179 2,960 1.93 1,058 333 6.63 MNE Beluhe Murino R6b.04 355 218 136 MNE Murino Andrijevica R6b.05 1,493 1,150 343 MNE Andrijevica Matesevo R6b.06 706 471 235 MNE Matesevo Kolasin R6b.07 706 471 235 ALB Milot Rreshen R7.01 17,486 11,747 2.23 15,998 11,033 2.09 1,488 714 4.16 ALB Rreshen Kalimash R7.02 13,515 9,372 2.05 12,312 8,836 1.86 1,203 536 4.59 ALB Kalimash Morine R7.03 12,848 8,709 2.18 12,312 8,188 2.29 536 521 0.15 KOS Vermice/Vrbnica Prizren R7.06 11,175 14,140-1.30 10,463 11,284-0.42 712 2,856-7.43 KOS Prizren Suhareke/Suva R7.07 26,811 16,420 2.76 19,383 13,103 2.20 7,428 3,317 4.58 Reka KOS Suhareke/Suva raleve/crnoljevo R7.08 26,811 15,489 3.10 19,383 12,360 2.53 7,428 3,129 4.92 Reka KOS raleve/crnoljevo Lipljan R7.09 15,081 9,013 2.90 14,553 8,649 2.93 528 364 2.09 KOS Pristina Luzhane/Luzane R7.11 14,586 11,994 1.09 10,766 10,298 0.25 3,820 1,696 4.61 KOS Luzhane/Luzane Merdare R7.12 8,376 10,404-1.20 7,316 8,860-1.06 1,060 1,544-2.07 SBR Merdare Kursumlija R7.13.14 1,963 1,123 3.15 1,364 907 2.29 600 216 5.84 SBR Kursumlija Prokuplje R7.15.16 4,579 2,950 2.47 4,163 2,588 2.68 415 362 0.77 SBR Prokuplje Doljevac R7.17.18 4,579 5,636-1.15 4,163 5,277-1.31 415 359 0.81 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 19
Country From To SEETO MKD Podmolje Ohrid R8.01 11,000 8,791 1.25 9,281 8,004 0.83 1,720 787 4.44 MKD Ohrid Resen R8.02 4,424 1,892 4.83 4,223 1,829 4.76 202 63 6.68 MKD Resen Bitola R8.03 4,424 2,603 2.99 4,223 2,434 3.11 202 169 0.99 CRO Vukovar Vinkovci R9.01.01 9,882 7,652 1.43 9,318 7,323 1.35 564 329 3.04 CRO Vinkovci Zupanja R9.01.02 9,882 5,897 2.91 9,318 5,072 3.44 564 825-2.09 CRO Rupa (border) Rupa Vb.01.01 12,033 6,938 3.11 11,310 6,469 3.15 723 469 2.43 CRO Rupa Permani Vb.01.02 12,404 6,938 3.28 11,293 6,469 3.14 1,111 469 4.91 CRO Permani Jurdani Vb.01.03 12,404 6,938 3.28 11,293 6,469 3.14 1,111 469 4.91 CRO Jurdani Matulji Vb.01.04 12,404 6,938 3.28 11,293 6,469 3.14 1,111 469 4.91 CRO Matulji Diracje Vb.02.01 31,394 23,463 1.63 27,471 21,330 1.42 3,923 2,133 3.44 CRO Diracje Skorinje Vb.02.02 31,394 23,463 1.63 27,471 21,330 1.42 3,923 2,133 3.44 CRO Skorinje Rijeka Vb.02.03 31,394 23,463 1.63 27,471 21,330 1.42 3,923 2,133 3.44 CRO Rijeka Cavle Vb.03.01 15,702 8,833 3.25 13,786 7,851 3.18 1,916 982 3.78 CRO Cavle Kikovica Vb.03.02 15,702 8,833 3.25 13,786 7,851 3.18 1,916 982 3.78 CRO Kikovica Ostrovica Vb.04.01 15,702 8,833 3.25 13,786 7,851 3.18 1,916 982 3.78 CRO Ostrovica Vrata Vb.04.02 15,702 11,404 1.79 13,786 10,300 1.63 1,916 1,104 3.11 CRO Vrata Delnice Vb.04.03 15,702 11,603 1.69 13,786 10,478 1.54 1,916 1,125 3.00 CRO Delnice Ravna Gora Vb.04.04 15,702 11,232 1.88 13,786 9,963 1.82 1,916 1,269 2.31 CRO Ravna Gora Vrbovsko Vb.05.01 15,702 11,306 1.84 13,786 10,014 1.79 1,916 1,292 2.21 CRO Vrbovsko Bosiljevo 2 Vb.05.02 15,702 10,848 2.08 13,786 9,620 2.02 1,916 1,228 2.50 CRO Bosiljevo 2 Bosiljevo 1 Vb.06.01 31,974 21,200 2.31 29,097 19,487 2.25 2,877 1,713 2.92 CRO Bosiljevo 1 Novi Grad Vb.06.02 31,974 20,598 2.47 29,097 18,910 2.42 2,877 1,688 3.01 CRO Novi Grad Karlovac Vb.07 31,974 20,650 2.46 29,097 18,939 2.41 2,877 1,711 2.93 CRO Karlovac Jastrebarsko Vb.08.01 35,999 27,225 1.56 32,076 24,791 1.44 3,923 2,434 2.69 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 20
Country From To SEETO CRO Jastrebarsko Lucko Vb.08.02 40,369 30,002 1.66 36,446 27,300 1.62 3,923 2,702 2.09 CRO Ivanja Reka Kraljevacki Novaki Vb.09.01 45,980 35,698 1.42 36,659 31,010 0.93 9,322 4,688 3.89 CRO Kraljevacki Novaki Popovec Vb.09.02 37,010 28,805 1.40 29,759 25,023 0.97 7,252 3,782 3.68 CRO Popovec Sveta Helena Vb.09.03 30,432 23,768 1.38 24,699 20,647 1.00 5,734 3,121 3.44 CRO Sveta Helena Komin Vb.09.04 11,543 8,813 1.51 9,581 7,561 1.32 1,962 1,252 2.53 CRO Komin Breznicki Hum Vb.09.05 11,543 8,586 1.66 9,581 7,348 1.49 1,962 1,238 2.59 CRO Breznicki Hum Novi Marof Vb.09.06 11,543 8,318 1.84 9,581 7,160 1.63 1,962 1,158 2.97 CRO Novi Marof Varazdinske Vb.10.01 11,543 8,547 1.68 9,581 7,429 1.42 1,962 1,118 3.17 Toplice CRO Varazdinske Varazdin Vb.10.02 11,543 9,364 1.17 9,581 8,232 0.85 1,962 1,132 3.10 Toplice CRO Varazdin Ludbreg Vb.11.01 5,338 4,541 0.90 4,681 3,942 0.96 656 599 0.51 CRO Ludbreg Cakovec Vb.11.02 5,338 3,769 1.95 4,681 3,335 1.90 656 434 2.32 CRO Cakovec Gorican Vb.11.03 1,542 2,185-1.92 1,135 1,942-2.94 407 243 2.91 CRO Gorican Gorican (border) Vb.12 1,542 2,185-1.92 1,135 1,942-2.94 407 243 2.91 CRO Dubosevica Beli Manastir Vc.01.01 2,674 989 5.68 2,132 830 5.38 542 159 7.05 CRO Beli Manastir Karanac Vc.01.02 8,194 5,642 2.09 7,652 5,191 2.18 542 451 1.02 CRO Karanac Osijek - North Vc.01.03 8,194 6,678 1.14 7,652 6,006 1.35 542 672-1.19 CRO Osijek - North Josipovec Vc.01.04 24,512 19,062 1.41 20,633 17,329 0.97 3,879 1,733 4.58 CRO Josipovec Cepin Vc.02.01 3,674 1,707 4.35 2,923 1,492 3.81 751 215 7.19 CRO Cepin Djakovo Vc.02.02 3,674 2,308 2.62 2,923 2,000 2.13 751 308 5.07 CRO Djakovo Sredanci Vc.02.03 3,674 2,686 1.75 2,923 2,277 1.40 751 409 3.43 CRO V. Kopanica Slavonski Samac Vc.03.01 5,486 2,383 4.74 4,782 2,043 4.84 704 340 4.13 BIH Bosanski Samac Modrica Vc.04 8,016 7,312 704 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 21
Country From To SEETO CRO Metkovic HR/BH Opuzen Vc.04.01 11,536 9,242 1.24 10,781 8,402 1.39 755 840-0.59 (border) CRO Opuzen Cevljusa Vc.04.02 9,798 7,700 1.35 8,050 6,942 0.83 1,748 758 4.75 CRO Cevljusa Ploce Vc.04.03 9,798 5,732 3.02 8,050 5,211 2.45 1,748 521 6.96 BIH Modrica Seslije Vc.05 14,954 13,261 1,692 BIH Seslije Doboj Vc.06 17,254 14,641 2,612 BIH Doboj Karuse Vc.07 17,563 15,226 2,337 BIH Karuse Maglaj Vc.08 12,733 7,911 2.68 11,316 6,617 3.03 1,417 1,294 0.50 BIH Maglaj Zenica Vc.09 12,733 5,988 4.28 11,316 4,952 4.70 1,417 1,036 1.75 BIH Zenica Lasva Vc.10 19,387 11,299 3.04 17,781 9,937 3.29 1,606 1,362 0.92 BIH Lasva Visoko Vc.11 22,544 11,463 3.83 19,624 9,012 4.42 2,920 2,451 0.98 BIH Visoko Josanica Vc.12 22,544 13,752 2.78 19,624 11,427 3.05 2,920 2,325 1.27 BIH Josanica Semizovac Vc.13 26,569 15,886 2.90 23,649 14,311 2.83 2,920 1,575 3.49 BIH Semizovac Sarajevo Vc.14 26,569 23,649 2,920 BIH Sarajevo Blazuj Vc.15 25,159 20,030 5,129 BIH Blazuj Tarcin Vc.16 11,359 7,409 2.40 10,140 6,769 2.27 1,219 640 3.64 BIH Tarcin Konjic Vc.17 11,359 5,061 4.59 10,140 4,439 4.70 1,219 622 3.81 BIH Konjic Jablanica Vc.18 10,529 7,802 1.68 9,310 7,251 1.40 1,219 551 4.51 BIH Jablanica Mostar bypass 1 Vc.19 10,529 6,453 2.76 9,310 5,783 2.68 1,219 670 3.38 BIH Mostar bypass 1 Mostar bypass 2 Vc.20 7,361 6,453 0.73 6,762 5,783 0.87 599 670-0.62 BIH Mostar bypass 2 Zitomislic Vc.21 7,361 5,182 1.97 6,762 4,864 1.85 599 318 3.58 BIH Zitomislic Capljina Vc.22 7,361 5,182 1.97 6,762 4,864 1.85 599 318 3.58 BIH Capljina Doljani Vc.23 7,361 3,798 3.74 6,762 3,556 3.63 599 242 5.17 ALB Tirana Vore VIII.1.1 33,939 25,076 1.70 29,148 22,861 1.36 4,790 2,215 4.38 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 22