HVCB Maui Visitors & Convention Bureau Membership Meeting October 27, 2015 Hawai i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson
2015-16: The Road Ahead North America: Following notable increases in 2015, continued but slower growth likely ahead. Developing Int l Potential: Mixed performance seen from Maui s international markets in 2015, though these markets are small and interisland air access could challenge future growth. Never Been There, Never Done That: Longer-term, sustaining the market requires increased focus on North America Never Beens Hawai i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson
Current Landscape: Growth from North America and beyond fuels 2015 increases 15% Year-Over-Year Growth in Total Maui Visitor Arrivals 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sources: Hawai i Tourism Authority Hawai i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson
Historical Maui Arrivals YTD through August 2,000,000 1,707,000 1,732,300 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P Hawai i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson
Continued Growth Strong market conditions point to continued, but slower growth heading into 2016
Economic Indicators: Continued Growth Forecasted into 2016 Real North America GDP Growth 2014 2015F 2016F U.S. +2.4% +2.5% +2.4% 2014 2015F 2016F Canada +2.4% +1.2% +2.3% Source: Economist Intelligence Unit as of September 22, 2015
North America Leisure Travel Demand: Continued Growth Forecasted into 2016 U.S. North America Leisure Person Trips 2014 2015F 2016F +2.7% +2.0% +1.8% 2014 2015F 2016F Canada -0.8% -4.8% +2.3% Sources: US Travel Association as of July 2015, Conference Board of Canada as of August 2015
U.S. consumers Leisure Travel Sentiment is strong 130 120 110 100 90 80 March 2007 = 100 U.S. Air Leisure Traveler Sentiment Index August 2015 = 116 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2007 2008 2009 Source: MMGY Global, 2015 Q3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Future travel intentions for Hawai i are strong Very/Extremely Likely to Visit Hawai i in the Next 24 Months 32% 38% 41% 10% 20% 21% 17% 19% Aug 2008 Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2012 Aug 2013 Aug 2014 Aug 2015 Source: MMGY Global
Hawai i travel costs remain top barrier, but concerns ease Which of the following explains why you decided not to visit Hawai i? 2015 Q3 2014 Q3 Price of airfare 40% 42% Price of vacation package 39% 43% Price of hotel 33% 36% Better value at another destination 23% 19% Been to Hawai i before 16% 9% Hawai i not unique, different enough 16% 9%
Scheduled overseas seats to Maui reach new high in 2015 5,000,000 4,000,000 Total Scheduled seats, 2004 2015F 4.4 million (44% Overseas) 4.3 million (53% Overseas) 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Interisland North America Source: Airline schedules from Diio Mi
Slower growth ahead for US-Mainland-Maui Air Seats, continued growth in interisland capacity 2014-15 Quarterly YoY Performance Indicators (Avg Each Way) U.S. Mainland Maui (Kahului) Onboard Passengers Seats Load Factor (Point Chge) Source: UD DOT T-100 and O&D data from Diio Mi Interisland Maui (Kahului) Onboard Passengers Seats 2016 Q1 +1.8% +6.4% 2015 Q4 +8.0% +5.9% Load Factor (Point Chge) 2015 Q3? +10.9%?? +3.0%? 2015 Q2 +15.2% +20.1% 83% (-3.7) +0.2% +0.5% 74% (-0.2) 2015 Q1 +14.6% +20.3% 81% (-4.0) +0.3% +4.0% 74% (-2.7) 2014 Q4 +12.1% +16.3% 81% (-3.3) +3.9% +8.5% 72% (-3.1) 2014 Q3 +4.0% +7.8% 85% (-3.4) -2.1% +8.4% 71% (-7.6) 2014 Q2 +1.5% +5.6% 87% (-3.5) -1.8% +6.3% 74% (-6.1) 2014 Q1-0.8% +1.0% 85% (-1.5) +1.8% +5.7% 77% (-2.9) Source: US DOT T-100 and O&D data from Diio Mi 12
The Maui Air Service Cycle: Seats vs. Airfares 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Year-Over-Year Growth in U.S. Mainland Maui Air Seats and Airfares Air Seats Growth Airfares Growth Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Air seats data from Diio airline schedules. O&D airfare data from U.S. Dept. of Transportation
Oil Change: Lower prices forecasted to continue $120 Oil (US$/barrel; Brent) $100 $80 $60 $53 $60 $40 $20 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Forecasting Service as of September 22 2015
Nearly all North America travelers fly into Maui nonstop The vast majority of passengers traveling between North America and the Neighbor Islands travel aboard nonstop flights, rather than via interisland connections North America & Non-North America % Flying Nonstop to Neighbor Islands 93% 73% 75% Source: US DOT and IATA/ARC O&D passenger data from Diio Mi, 12-month period ending March 2015 0% 0% 0% North America Non-NA North America Non-NA North America Non-NA Maui Kaua i Hawai i Island
Visitor Arrivals Forecast: Slower growth ahead YTD Thru August (YoY %Chge) Forecast (YoY %Chge) % of Maui Maui State State Maui Total +5.9% +4.4% +1.6% 100% North America +6.0% +5.2% +1.3% 87% US West +9.6% +7.7% +1.2% 49% US East +3.8% +2.3% +1.3% 28% Canada -3.3% +0.3% +1.1% 10% Source: Hawai i Tourism Authority
Visitor Arrivals Forecast: Slower growth ahead YTD Thru August (YoY %Chge) Forecast (YoY %Chge) % of Maui Maui State State Maui Outside North Am. +5.3% +2.6% +2.2% 13% Europe -1.4% +1.1% +2.0% 2% Australia +7.2% +11.3% +1.5% (Oceania) 2% Japan +2.7% -1.1% +1.1% 2% Korea -5.5% -7.0% +6.0% 1% China +3.7% +6.2% +7.0% 1% New Zealand -0.2% +5.5% +1.5% (Oceania) < 1% Source: Hawai i Tourism Authority
Never Been There, Never Done That Longer-term, sustaining the market requires increased focus on North America Never Beens
Never Been s key to sustainable future growth in Maui travel 58% 4.2 66% 47 5.9 Repeat visitors to Maui Average number of visits to Maui Excellent Average Age of travel party head Average # of years since last HI visit Source: Hawai i Tourism Authority Hawai i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Dana Edmunds
The Hawai i Target Traveler Targeting the Never Visited Never Visited Hawai i Target Travelers (35%) U.S. Overseas Travelers (50.0 million U.S. adults) Hawai i Target Travelers (26.0 million adults) Previous Visited Hawai i Target Travelers Source: TravelStyles, 2014
Hawai i s Appeal: For Vacationers, Hawai i s strongest appeal is the state s natural beauty. Travelers express a broader appeal for the state 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q) Which of the following aspects of Hawai i appeal to you (select all that apply)? Source: Environics, 2015 Vacationers Travelers
#LetHawaiiHappen - Maui
#LetHawaiiHappen Maui Among Avid Travelers who recall seeing the Maui television commercial: What do Avid Travelers think the Maui television commercial is saying?: 63% 61% Much/Slightly more favorable impression of Maui Extremely/Very likely to visit Maui "Relax your plans, drop the schedule, let yourself explore and discover. Be open to new experiences and you'll never know what surprises lie ahead." "Adventure is everywhere...even in the most unlikely of places and circumstances." Source: TNS, 2015
#LetHawaiiHappen 70% 60% 50% 40% % Planning to Visit Hawai i in Next Two Years 60% 41% Nearly half (47%) of U.S. Avid travelers recall at least one of HVCB s marketing efforts (e.g., paid advertising, website, social media, PR, etc.) 30% 20% 10% 0% Hawai i Visitors Marketing No Marketing 23% 15% Never Beens Source: TNS, 2015
2015-16: The Road Ahead Continued Growth Ahead: Stable market conditions point to continued, but slower growth heading into 2016 Never Been There, Never Done That: Longer-term, sustaining the market requires an increased focus on North America Never Beens Hawai i Tourism Japan (HTJ)