THE WORLD BANK Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Phase 1 : Risk Assessment for the Present Situation and Horizon 2030 Alexandria Area National Workshop Alexandria, 15-16 June 2010
Overview of Work and Progress Mohamed El Raey Regional Center of Disaster Risk Reduction Arab Academy of Science, Technology and Maritime Transport 2
Partners World Bank EGIS (French Consulting Consortium) Governorate of Alexandria EEAA / ICZM/Climate Change Unit Urban Planning Authority Arab Academy of Science and Technology Information and Decision Support Center Holding Company for Wastewater Treatment 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
Objectives The main objectives of the study are: 1. Assessing vulnerabilities to the climate change and natural disasters of Alexandria City by the year 2030 2. Formulating action plans to improve adaptation to climate change and preparedness to natural disasters; 3. Disseminating results and engaging stakeholders in related decision-making 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
PHASE I - PRELIMINARY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Collecting information, building databases, building capacities and carry out assessments on: 1. Impacts of increasing ambient temperatures, heat waves and heat island effect 2. Coastal erosion, Sea Level Rise, subsidence and impact of storm surges 3. Investigation of potential impacts on urban flooding and Water Resources 4. Potential risks of earthquakes and Tsunamis 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
PHASE II ADAPTATION AND PREPAREDNESS ACTION PLANS Recommendations for : Urban planning aiming at minimizing vulnerabilities infrastructure assets and the physical investments to protect or upgrade the urban assets and systems in order to adapt institutional preparedness and emergency plans of the urban locations in view of the climate change impacts and disaster risks Economic valuation of the recommended remedial adaptation actions against the costs of the impacts of climate change and natural disasters, if unchecked 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
Achievements 1. A GIS data base of available data has been built 2. A group of research has been formulated and capacity upgraded through carrying out systematic research and cooperation with counterparts of EGIS 3. Preliminary analysis, processing and modelling results have been achieved 4. New results concerning recent subsidence rates through Radar satellite imagery interferometry have been carried out and compared to published literature in the Holocene period 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
Main Features 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
Underwater archaeology of the Eastern Port 9
El Silcila (A) N 0 4 k Mediterranean Sea Eastern Harbor QaitBey El Maamora El Montaza Abu Qir Harbor Abu Qir bay Western El Diekhila Harbor Harbor Alexandria region General physiographic features of Alexandria 31 0 30` 31 0 El Agami El Hamra 1 2 3 4 5 Mariut Lake 29 0 00` 29 0 30` Mediterranean Sea (B) 6 N 20 km Alamein 7 8 0 Agami Carbonate ridges 30 0 00` Abu Qir Bay Rosetta Nile branch NILE DELTA Former Canopic Branch Ridge elevation (m) 0 (<2) 1 (10) 2 (25) 3 (35) 4 (60) 5 (80) 6 (85) 7 (90) 8 (110) 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey
Alexandria Old Topography 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey 11
Low land area south-east of Alexandria City
Main Basins of Lake Maryut
ا.د.الراعى 6/24/2010
Alexandria Informal Settlements المطار و تىابعها الحضرة الجديدة الطىبجية حرم السكة الحديد وابىر الجاز كىم الملح مأوي الصيادين نجع العرب
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TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF ALEXANDRIA DATA P R O F E L R A E Y 17
Holocene Subsidence Of The Nile Delta Region(Stanley et al,1993-2003) P R O F E L R A E Y 18
ESA results of Radar satellite interferom etry 6/24/2010 Prof El Raey 19
MEASURED SEA LEVEL RISE P R O F E L R A E Y 20
Range of Expected Sea Level Rise 6/24/2010 Prof El Raey 21
Alexandria Industrial Areas
Alexandria Land use 23
Districts of the city 24
Main hydrological features of the study area 25
Sanitary Manholes 26
Estimated Land use 2030 27
Extreme Events 28
Extreme Events: Saharan dust that crosses the Mediterranean are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate changes 6/24/2010 Prof El Raey 29
Mohamed Aly Seawall El Tarh Idku inlet Abu Qir Harbor Risk area #2 Abu Khashaba Areas at Risk Frihy,2003 Mediterranean Sea N 10 km Alexandria Western Harbor Risk area #1 Former Abu Qir Lagoon Abu Qir Bay Idku Lagoon Kafr El Dauwar Rosetta Promontory Dunes Fish Farms Former lake Mareotis Beach and strand plain Carbonate ridge Low-lying area Fish farm Vegetated delta plain 30
Needs for protection 31
San Stefano Beach after a Small Storm 32
Connecting Coastal Islands
Montaza Area
- Development Idea Planned Aida Beach in Montaza area
Future Plans for Groins 36
Sandy coastal risk 6/24/2010 Prof. El Raey