Tourism Trends and Outlook 9 th UNWTO/PATA Forum Tourism and the experience economy Guilin, China 19-21 October 2015 John G.C. Kester Director Tourism Market Trends Programme
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) - a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how - plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries - intergovernmental organization with membership includes 163 countries and territories and over 450 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities - encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts - committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-0
Overview Tourism development worldwide Short-term trends in international tourism: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Tourism and the experience economy What s more
Tourism development worldwide
Inbound tourism in the world International tourist arrivals and receipts, 1995-2014* 1400 International tourist arrivals (million) US$ 1,248 bn 1200 1000 800 600 400 International tourism receipts (US$ billion) 855 764 809 768 561 587 602 625 674 675 696 692 703 654 527 550 449 450 458 476 495 482 502 415 971 911 928 949 966 886 891 886 1082 1117 1087 1,133 mn 994 1039 1198 47 million arrivals more than in 2013 200 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals and tourism receipts Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
% change over previous year International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 '90/89 growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely '91/90 '92/91 '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower International tourist arrivals '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '00/99 '01/00 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) '02/01 '03/02 '04/03 '05/04 '06/05 '07/06 Great recession : receipts more affected and slower to recover '08/07 '09/08 '10/09 '11/10 '12/11 '13/12 '14*/13? International tourism receipts 2014: US$ 1,248 billion euro 940 billion (miles de millones) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Inbound tourism: World International tourism, 1995-2014* (index, 2007=100) 130 124 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 58 66 62 70 International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts 84 87 84 76 76 74 74 82 82 80 69 77 66 64 73 74 89 90 94 95 100 102 98 100 101 96 104 101 109 106 114 110 119 116 121 50 40 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Main achievements http://mkt.unwto.org/highlights Results 2014 International tourist arrivals 1133 million +4.3% International tourism receipts (BOP Travel) US$ 1245 billion (euro 937 bn) +3.7% (real terms) + International passenger transport (BOP Transport, passenger) US$ 221 billion (euro 161 bn) www.unwto.org/facts
Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 International tourist arrivals and receipts, 1995-2014* International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion) 329 302 256 234 218 210 205 205 183 188 185 182 166 154 158 143 137 124 125 110 116 113 99 90 90 97 89 82 86 77 83 73 80 86 89 95 360 US$ 377 bn US$ 17 billion more than in 2013 250 264 mn 14 million arrivals more than in 2013 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
% change over previous year 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 '90/89 International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts Asia and the Pacific growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely '91/90 '92/91 '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower '96/95 '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '00/99 '01/00 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected '02/01 '03/02 '04/03 '05/04 '06/05 '07/06 Great recession : International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) '08/07 '09/08 '10/09 '11/10 '12/11 '13/12 '14*/13 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific International tourism, 1995-2014* (index, 2007=100) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts 156 149 145 138 137 129 128 119 120 113 100 101 104 103 99 91 84 82 78 68 69 63 65 62 63 57 58 60 53 52 54 55 49 49 49 45 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
% Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Purpose of visit 100 International tourist arrivals by purpose of visit, 2014 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Business and professional Other & not specified VFR, health, religion, other Leisure, recreation and holidays Asia and the Pacific North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
% Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Mode of transport 100 International tourist arrivals by mode of transport, 2014 90 80 70 Land not specified Water Air 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Asia and the Pacific North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
million Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Region of origin 300 250 International tourist arrivals by region of origin, 1995-2014* Asia and the Pacific Europe Americas Middle East Africa Origin not specified 200 150 100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
% Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Region of origin 100 International tourist arrivals by region of origin, 1995-2014* 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Europe Middle East Origin not specified 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Inbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Top destinations 60 57 56 International tourist receipts and arrivals 2014 50 51 International tourism receipts (US$ billion) International tourist arrivals (million) 40 38 38 32 30 25 28 23 27 20 10 15 7 20 19 19 18 13 14 12 8 15 10 10 9 8 3 7 8 5 5 0 China Macao (China) Thailand Hong Kong (China) Australia Malaysia India Singapore Japan Korea (ROK) Taiwan (pr. Indonesia of China) New Zealand Vietnam Philippines Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.e-unwto.org/doi/abs/10.18111/9789284416301
Outbound markets
China became number 1 outbound market in 2012 and strong growth continues World and regions: Outbound Tourism International Tourism Expenditure 180 (US$ billion) 160 China 140 120 United States 100 Germany 80 60 40 20 United Kingdom Russian Federation France Canada Italy Australia Brazil 0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Outbound tourism in Asia and the Pacific Top outbound markets 180 160 165 International tourist expenditure and departures 2014 International tourism expenditure (US$ billion) 140 120 117 International departures (million) 100 80 85 60 40 20 0 26 24 24 22 16 9 9 China Australia Singapore Korea (ROK) Hong Kong (China) 19 17 18 15 14 12 12 Japan India Taiwan (pr. of China) 10 8 9 7 8 7 6 4 2 2 Malaysia PhilippinesIndonesia Iran Thailand New Zealand Vietnam Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
High potential outbound markets International Tourism Expenditure: increase 2007-2014* (US$ billion) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 135 International Tourism Expenditure: between 2007 and 2014 total up by US$ 362 bn (euro 293 billion), from US$ 883 bn (euro 644 bn) in 2007 to 1,245 billion (euro 937 bn) in 2014 (current terms) in spite of crisis Average annual growth rate in real terms +2.7% a year 40 30 20 10-10 -20 China Russian Federation United States 30.0 22.5 17.4 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.1 9.0 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 Brazil Singapore Australia France Germany Canada Qatar Hong Kong (China) Norway Philippines Malaysia Switzerland Untd Arab Emirates India Belgium Sweden Taiwan (pr. of China) Kuwait Saudi Arabia Colombia Indonesia Netherlands Thailand Ukraine Korea, Republic of Denmark Czech Rep Argentina Turkey Finland Lebanon Mexico Italy Poland New Zealand Japan -7.2-13.8 United Kingdom 0 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2015
538 million intnl tourist arrivals through June, 21 million more than in the same period of 2014 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) 140 130 120 110 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 90 80 70 60 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourism maintains strength International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -3.9% +6.5% +5.1% +4.2% +4.6% +4.2% +4.1% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2014 and 2015 by region International Tourist Arrivals (% change) 9 8.4 7 5 3 4.2 4 2.3 5.7 5 5 4 2.2 6.3 5 1-1 -3-5 -7 14*/13 15*/14 January - June World Europe Asia and the Pacific -6 Americas Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2015: Cheaper oil Crude Oil Spot Price Brent (daily) (US$ per barrel) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
2015: Exchange rate fluctuations Exchange rate, September 2015 compared to average 2014-50 -40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 US dollar HK dollar / MOP UAE dirham Chinese yuan Swiss franc Philippine peso Pound sterling Vietnamese dong Taiwan dollar Indian rupee Thai baht Japanese yen Singapore dollar Moroccan dirham Korean won Euro Canadian dollar Indonesian rupiah South African rand Mexican peso Australian dollar New-Zealand dollar Malaysian ringgit Turkish lira Brazilian real Russian rouble currencies that weakened to US$ but strengthened to euro -43-40 -34-31 variation of currency to US$ variation of currency to euro -25-27 -21-22 -22-20 -17-17 -14-16 -11-11 -11-11 -13-13 -10-10 -11-8 -8-8 -5-6 -6-5 -5-4 -4 0 0 1 3 3 3 2 6 6 9 8 8 11 11 15 15 15 currencies that weakened to both US$ and euro Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
IMF: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices Complex forces weigh on global growth Economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 8 6 4 change (%) 2 0-2 Advanced economies Emerging economies -4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
134 million intnl tourist arrivals through June, 6 million more than in the same period of 2014 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (million) 30 25 20 15 10 5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific Gradual slowdown International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change) 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -1.6% +13.1% +6.3% +7.0% +6.9% +5.7% +4.7% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2014 and 2015 by subregion International Tourist Arrivals, Asia and the Pacific (% change) 12 10 8 6 4 5.7 7.2 5 5 5 2.9 6.0 7 10.4 4 2 0-2 -4 14*/13 Asia and the Pacific 15*/14 January - June North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Outlook
Outlook: World International Tourist Arrivals, World (% change) change (%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 6.4 4.5 2.6 3.8 7.8 0.2 3.1 96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 00/99 01/00 02/01-0.6 10.4 5.9 5.7 6.6 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 03/02 Long-term average 1.9 04/03 05/04 06/05 07/06 08/07 09/08-3.9 6.5 5.1 4.2 4.7 4.4 10/09 11/10 12*/11 13*/12 14*/13 Forecast 2015 Forecast 2015: 3% to 4% (issued January)
International tourism: projection full year 2015 Actual data 2013 2014 Projection 2015 (issued January) World 4.6% 4.3% +3% and +4% Europe 4.9% 2.7% +3% and +4% Asia and the Pacific 6.8% 5.4% +4% and +5% Americas 3.1% 8.0% +4% and +5% Africa 4.7% 2.4% +3% and +5% Middle East -3.1% 5.4% +2% and +5% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourist Arrivals (million) Actual Trend vs. Tourism Towards 2030 projection World 1,800 1,600 Trend 1995-2010 Tourism Towards 2030 projection Actual 1995-2014* 1.4 bn 1.8 bn 1,400 1,200 1133 mn 1,000 800 600 400 200 527 mn 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourist Arrivals (million) Actual Trend vs. Tourism Towards 2030 projection Asia and the Pacific 500 Trend 1995-2010 Tourism Towards 2030 projection Actual 1995-2014* 535 mn 400 355 mn 300 264 mn 200 82 mn 100 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 2030 in one page Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades Emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Tourism and the experience economy
Asian tourism is maturing and moving towards sophistication consumers are continuously evolving: more experienced and demanding customers changing values and lifestyles demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure) intensified competition shaping an adequate business environment innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc. sustainability (social, economic and environment) is ever more critical addressing issues such as use of resources and waste, energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management
Tourism and the experience economy The Experience Economy, Updated Edition B. Joseph Pine II, James H Gilmore From delivery of products and services to offering experiences
How to make a difference Focus on guests / customer Engage your visitors From to see to to do Value authenticity Treasure heritage, culture, gastronomy, etc. Storytelling Think global, act local Develop routes and themes, festivals and events The new luxury (simple things, time, access to something unique, treat yourself, wellness)
Not all guests are the same
How to make a difference Differentiate and diversify, complement existing offer Research: R+D (+C+I) research and development, know your customers, know trends, know your competition Innovation: stimulate new ideas and entrepreneurship Strategy: Reflect, discuss, set objectives, plan, execute, evaluate RRR: rethink, redefine and reinvent your destination Quality / Education / Human resources Excel in sustainability Vitamin 3C (collaboration, cooperation, coordination)
Tourism Market Trends programme Trends in markets, products and segments Outbound market netnographic studies based on the analysis of the blogosphere
Blue skies an underestimated advantage Take a picture in any direction and it will show a beautiful landscape. Look anywhere and you will see a sky bluer than what you ve ever seen in Beijing.
What s more
Tourism Market Trends programme Outbound market studies Forthcoming: United States / Canada Latin America / Brazil Russia and CIS
Tourism Market Trends programme Marketing Handbooks Forthcoming: Key performance indicators Health and medical tourism
Tourism Market Trends programme Guide members on marketing Methodology / Best Practice Decision-Making process of Meetings, Congresses, Conventions and Incentives Organizers Exploring Health tourism (wellness and medical) to be discussed in UNWTO Competitiveness Committee and forthcoming round table
Preparing for the 10 th anniversary of the Forum Book prepared with overview of all 9 editions of the UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook organised in Guilin, China 9 th Forum PDFs of presentations to be made available at http://asiapacific.unwto.org/event/9thunwtopata-forum-tourism-trends-andoutlook
Where to find information prepared by UNWTO? hardcopy: => UNWTO Infoshop http://pub.unwto.org (and depositary libraries) UNWTO www.unwto.org, follow us on: Affiliate Membership: http://affiliatemembers.unwto.org Facts & Figures www.unwto.org/facts Publications http://publications.unwto.org electronic: => UNWTO elibrary www.e-unwto.org statistics online www.e-unwto.org/toc/unwtotfb/current
Thank you very much for your attention! John G.C. Kester Tourism Market Trends Programme World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org