Session 6: The 217 ReNAPRI Outlook on Maize, Wheat, Rice, Soybeans and Sugar Session Moderator: Prof. Ferdi Meyer Presenters: Brian Chisanga and Tracy Davids
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was made possible by a number of funders, including the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Feed the Future Initiative s Innovation Lab for Food Security
Baseline Assumptions Stable weather conditions thus less volatility Current policies remain in place business as usual Trade policies > absence of trade controls unless already implemented Producer support / subsidies remain as is Government procurement policies Oil price increasing from $45 in 216 to $63 by 222
Baseline assumptions: Growth 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Growth in real GDP: Outlook vs. Past Decade Total Past Decade Outlook 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 2% Per Capita Past Decade Outlook Source: IMF, 217
Baseline Assumptions: Growth In most instances growth slows from past, particularly in per capita terms Past decade growth underpinned by three main factors Improved business and macro economic environment High commodity prices Accommodative financial conditions globally External factors less supportive going forward
Baseline Assumptions: Exchange Rate Rate Local Currency / US $ Depreciation p.a. 26 216 217 222 Past Decade 216 217 Outlook South Africa 6.77 14.71 13.4 15.79 6.78% -8.92% 1.9% Kenya 72.1 12. 14.37 12.2 4.22% 2.32% 2.83% Zambia 3.6 1.32 9.51 13.33 9.12% -7.82% 5.34% Tanzania 1251.93 2177.13 225.54 2586.58 5.55% 3.37% 2.84% Malawi 136.1 714.5 734. 911.52 17.4% 2.79% 4.5% Mozambique 24.98 61.14 65.5 7.49 6.5% 7.12% 2.5% DRC 468.28 172.14 1518.95 4597.95 7.51% 41.67% 24.66% Uganda 1831.47 342.21 3619.91 4131.82 6.83% 5.84% 2.96% Source: IMF, 217
Kg per capita per year 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Food Demand: Maize Per capita maize consumption 215 216 222 Total Food Demand: 6.8 Mil ton additional maize by 222
Demand: Wheat and Rice Wheat Rice Kg / Capita 7 6 5 Kg / capita 45 4 35 3 4 25 3 2 2 15 1 1 5 South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Mozambique Tanzania 21 211 215 216 222 21 211 215 216 222
Baseline Assumptions: Population Million People 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Population Growth Growth from 216 to 222 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Zimbabwe (7%) Uganda (22%) DRC (19%) Mozambique (15%) Malawi (19%) Tanzania (19%) Zambia (21%) Kenya (17%) South Africa (4%) Source: IMF, 217
Significant growth in food use Growth in consumption: 222 vs. 215 216 additional growth required Rice (2 Countries).65 Mil tons Wheat (4 Countries) 1.2 Mil tons Maize (9 Countries) 6.9 Mil tons Thousand Tons 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Malawi Mozambique DRC Uganda Zimbabwe
Regional Maize Consumption Million Tons 1 9 8 Total Feed Consumption Feed consumption 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Regional Feed Use South African Feed Use Zambian Feed Use
Maize Outlook Production, Trade and Prices Kenya Tanzania Uganda Malawi Mozambique South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe DRC
Maize Regional Overview Thousand tons 55 45 + 1 million tons 35 25 15 5 5 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Consumption Other & losses Consumption Feed Consumption Food Production Net trade
Production growth Avg. annual growth (26 216) Avg. annual growth Outlook (216 222) Area Yield Area Yield Absolute Growth Maize area planted 214 216 ha 222 ha Absolute Growth Yields 214 216 t/ha 222 t/ha South Africa.57% 1.55%.38% 2.4% 2 786 232.1 3.93 5.63 Zambia 5.72% 2.7% 1.17% 2.34% 1 426 1572.21 2.7 2.47 Kenya 2.32%.48% 1.52% 1.38% 2 13 2356.49 1.67 1.89 Tanzania 4.65% 2.41% 1.91% 2.67% 4 45 4642.94 1.5 1.66 Malawi.1% 2.26%.48% 2.23% 1 419 1521 1.95 2 Mozambique.28% 1.3%.1%.24% 1 61 1768.31.97 1.1 DRC 2.6%.24% 6.9%.91% 1 572 2373.86 1 Uganda 3.58% 4% 1.8% 2% 1 124 13.94 2.45 2.72 Zimbabwe.38%.75% 2.86%.62% 1 622 192.46.56.93
Yield Growth & Total area Ton/ha 7, 6, 5, 4, 25 2 15 Million hectares 3, 2, 1, 1 5, 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Total area: Right Axis Yield: South Africa Yield: Zambia Yield: Kenya Yield: Tanzania Yield: Malawi Yield: Mozambique Yield: DRC Yields: Uganda Yields: Zimbabwe
Maize Trade: Regional Overview Thousand tons 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Total Net Trade South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Malawi Mozambique DRC Uganda Zimbabwe
Surplus Producers Thousand tons 17 12 South Africa Thousand tons 4 5 4 3 5 3 Zambia 2 5 7 2 1 5 2 1 5 3 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 5 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Consumption: Feed Production Consumption: Food Net Trade Consumption: Food
Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka
Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Mozambique: National Avg
Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Mozambique: National Avg Zimbabwe: Harare
Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 World Price: US Gulf Kenya: Nairobi Tanzania: Arusha Uganda: Kampala
Weather impact on yields & prices US $ / ton 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 World Price: US Gulf Kenya: Nairobi Tanzania: Arusha Mozambique: National Avg Zimbabwe: Harare South Africa: Randfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Uganda: Kampala
Wheat Outlook Kenya Tanzania South Africa Zambia
Wheat Overview: KEN, TZA, ZAF, ZAM Thousand tons 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Consumption Feed Consumption Food Production Net trade
Wheat Net imports Thousand Tons 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 Important sources of imports: Black Sea: 3 Mil USD in 216 Germany: 11 Mil USD in 216 Canada: 68 Mil USD in 216 Australia: 12 Mil USD in 215 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Total Tanzania Kenya South Africa Zambia
Wheat expansion in Zambia Thousand ha 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Kwacha/ton 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Area Planted Import Parity Domestic Wheat Price (Lusaka) Export Parity
Baseline Prices: Wheat US $ / ton 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Randfontein Zambia: Lusaka Tanzania: Arusha Kenya: Nairobi
Wheat Production Outlook Thousand hectares 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 Avg annual growth area past decade: Zambia +8.95 Tanzania + 4.58 Kenya +1.72 1 9 8 7 6 Tons / ha 8 5 6 4 4 2 3 2 1 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 Zambia Area Kenya Area Tanzania Area South Africa Area Zambia Yield Irrigation Kenya Yield Tanzania Yield South Africa Yield
Soybean Outlook South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique
Soybean area expansion Thousand Ha 9 8 7 3% 25% Soybean Area expansion 6 2% 5 15% 4 1% 3 5% 2 % 1 5% 29 > 217 217 > 222 South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique
Soybean area expansion Thousand Ha 25 2 3% 25% Soybean Area expansion 2% 15 15% 1 1% 5% 5 % 5% 29 > 217 217 > 222 Zambia Malawi Mozambique
Soybean Prices USD per ton 12 1 8 6 4 2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Soybeans, Illinois South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique
Trade in Soybeans Thousand tons 2 1 1 2 3 4 South Africa: 34 Kt in 21 to 175 Kt in 215 (Dedicated soybean) Zambia: 125Kt in 21 to 375Kt in 215 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 South Africa Net trade Zambia Net trade Malawi Net trade Mozambique Net trade
Trade in Soybean Products 2 2 Oilcake Oil 5 1 4 15 6 2 8 25 1 3 12 35 Thousand tons 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Thousand tons South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique
Concluding: What could be different?? Key uncertainties facing the Outlook presented Weather following drought in 215 and 216, record harvest 217 what next? Macroeconomics eg. Exchange rates? Growth? Productivity gains Malabo declaration goals? Policy
Weather affecting prices and trade Thousand tons 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 USD per ton 216 217 216 Price 217 Price
Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize Double rate of yield growth over outlook Avg annual growth of 5.7% per annum, National average yield to 2.51 tons per hectare by 225.
Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize USD per ton 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Tanzania: Baseline Tanzania: Scenario
Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize USD per ton 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Tanzania: Baseline Tanzania: Scenario Kenya: Baseline Kenya: Scenario Uganda: Baseline Uganda: Scenario
Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize Country Baseline Scenario 1: Increased Yield Scenario 2: Increased yield and transport cost reduction Volume imported from Tanzania Thousand tons South Africa... Zambia. 2.56 35.3 Malawi. 2.86 67.5 Mozambique.. 2.95 Kenya 343.98 1235.84 1147.97 Uganda.. 4.77 Zimbabwe... Other 5. 5. 35.88
South Africa Zambia Sugar Outlook
Sugar South Africa Production, Consumption, Trade and Prices Thousand tons 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 221 Sugar production Sugar domestic use Sugar exports
Sugar South Africa Impact of sugar tariff 44, SA cane area: Ref price $65 42, 4, 38, 36, 34, 32, 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Baseline Scenario Ref:$65/no tax Scenario Ref:$65/ sugar tax
Sugar Zambia Production, Consumption and Trade Thousand tons 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Sugar Domestic Use Sugar Production Sugar Exports
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