Construction Industry Focus Survey 1
CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 1. Leading Activity Indicator 2 2. Activity by sector and constraints Residential, Non-residential, Civil Engineering 3. Orders and Tenders 6 4. Tender prices, Employment 7 5. Material Costs 8 6. Regional Analysis 9 7. UK Macro summary 11 Page 3 If you like this sample forecast you can purchase the latest full version of this forecast here. Visit our website to browse our range of forecasts and services
Executive Summary In February the CFR s Leading Construction Activity Indicator1 dropped two points on a monthly basis to reach 60. It has remained at or above 50 in each month since September 2012. The orders index also experienced a downtick of four points in February to 66. It has now remained over 60 for thirteen consecutive months. Meanwhile, the tender enquiries increased by 2 points to 64. Following January s record high performance, the non-residential activity (62) experienced a decline of 4 points in February. There was no movement in the residential sector s index, whilst the civil engineering one rose by 2 points 65. In February the employment prospects index fell into negative territory for the first time since March 2014, reaching 48 points. This figure suggests that firms are less likely to hire new staff in the next three months than they have been over the last twelve months. Across all regions and devolved nations, both Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands saw the largest upticks to their indices in February, rising by 6 points to 78 and 71 respectively. The North East has expanded by five points in February, while the North West (48) fell by 4 points into negative territory over the same period. Along with the North West, both Scotland and the West Midlands have remained below 50 for the fourth consecutive month. In January 9 of twelve regions and devolved nations were in positive territory. Leading Activity Indicator over time The growth in orders has slowed over the last quarter. Employment prospects have fallen for the first time since March 2014 Up Yorkshire and the Humber, East Midlands Down North West, Scotland, West Midlands. Survey highlights Experian's Leading Construction Activity Indicator incorporates a range of factors to assess the construction industry s prospects over the next quarter. The indicator is put together using information about past levels of activity, orders and tender enquiries. The indicator uses a base level of 50 above that level represents an increase in activity, below that level a decrease.
Activity Overall Construction Activity, Total, Repair and Maintenance The construction activity index stood at 60 points in February, representing a decline of two points on a monthly basis. The repair and maintenance (R&M) activity index returned to growth, rising by 8 points to 55. Sector Activity in February was mixed among the three sectors. The non-residential sector felt the only decline, falling by four points to 62, whilst the civil engineering sector gained two points, reaching 65. Growth was flat in the residential sector (59). Construction Activity by sector
Activity Constraints On the whole, opinions regarding construction activity constraints in February fell in relation to the previous month s consensus. The percentage of respondents posting no constraints increased by 11 percentage points to 35% in February. This indicated an overall reduction in factors which could adversely affect activity among the panel of construction firms. Worries regarding insufficient demand in the construction industry have intensified in February, with 36% of respondents stating it was an issue. Meanwhile both bad weather and labour shortages have moderated, falling from 14% to just 8% and 9% respectively. According to responses from the construction sector, material/equipment shortages were in a no way a burden during February, dropping by 4 percentage points. Financial constraints were an issue for 12% of respondents. Activity Constraints % of respondents Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb No Constraint 24 35 34 24 23 32 35 26 25 34 20 24 35 Insufficient Demand 39 39 40 39 45 32 31 37 38 32 36 29 36 Bad Weather 7 8 7 4 1 0 0 3 4 5 9 14 8 Labour Shortage Material / Equipment shortage 7 1 5 13 12 18 14 15 14 12 13 14 8 3 1 4 5 2 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 0 Finance 17 15 10 13 16 10 12 12 12 10 11 10 12 Other factors 3 0 0 1 1 1 4 1 2 1 6 6 1
Orders and Tenders Orders and Tender enquiries over time At 66 points the orders index has remained over 60 for its thirteenth consecutive month in February. On the same measure, tender enquiries experienced an uptick of two points (64). Orders by Sector over time Two of the three sectors experienced a decline to their orders indices in February. The civil engineering one posted its strongest growth since October 2007, gaining 6 points to reach 76. In contrast the Nonresidential sector declined by 6 points. The residential one also experienced a downtick, falling by 2 points to 68. Trends by Sector At the sector level civil engineering returned to growth in January, with a 15 point rise to 80. The residential sector also saw a strong expansion, gaining 8 points to 64. Meanwhile, the non-residential sector moderated to 64 points in February.
% of respondents % of respondents Construction Industry Focus Survey Material Costs During February 2015, 29% of residential and nonresidential respondents reported a reduction in material costs. Approximately 31% experienced material cost inflation below 2.5%, up from the November s reported percentage of 10%. The proportion indicating that their material costs had grown by between 2.6% and 5% fell to 34%, down from 57% in November. The percentage of respondents who saw their material costs increase between 5.1% and 7.5% increased to 37% in February, an uptick of 31 percentage points from three months earlier. The share of firms that experienced material cost growth of more than 7.6% increased to 40%. Material Costs Residential and Non-Residential 100% 90% 19% 22% 16% 30% 80% 6% 40% 70% 3% 21% 10% 60% 6% 50% 40% 46% 67% 45% 57% 34% 30% 20% 18% 11% 10% 11% 8% 10% 0% Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 < 0 0 <= 2.5 2.6 <= 5 5.1 <= 7.4 >= 7.5 Material Costs Civil Engineering 100% 90% 17% 20% 80% 70% 60% 20% 60% 83% 50% 67% 100% 20% 40% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 17% 17% 20% 20% 0% Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 Material cost inflation in February was varied amongst respondents. In February there was an equal share of respondents reporting material cost inflation in the boundaries stated on the survey. This result differs greatly from November s posting, in which all respondents indicated that they had experience material cost inflation between 2.6% and 5%. < 0 0 <= 2.5 2.6 <= 5 5.1 <= 7.4 >= 7.5
Regional Analysis Composite Indices6163 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb North East 59 63 59 57 56 58 65 61 51 41 38 45 50 Yorkshire & Humberside 86 80 78 61 57 77 74 72 80 69 80 72 78 East Midlands 65 63 69 64 60 66 66 74 73 68 59 65 71 East Anglia 65 63 58 54 62 63 65 62 60 60 59 61 60 South East 61 59 62 62 62 60 62 63 60 59 59 57 57 South West 69 73 74 78 69 68 69 81 80 79 75 78 79 West Midlands 54 51 53 52 54 56 57 59 55 47 43 44 46 North West 56 52 54 56 56 56 56 57 61 63 59 52 48 Wales 35 36 35 30 30 41 45 53 57 52 54 66 56 Scotland 40 42 46 48 53 53 72 68 66 43 43 45 49 Northern Ireland 50 48 47 44 45 44 59 57 57 45 50 55 58 UK 61 63 61 58 57 62 58 61 62 64 61 61 57 Source: Data ONS, Forecasts - Experian
Regional Analysis Experian's regional composite indices incorporate current activity levels, the state of order books and the number of tender enquiries received by contractors to provide a measure of the relative strength of each regional industry. The majority of regions and devolved nations saw an increase in activity in February. Both the South West and Yorkshire and Humberside strengthened further in February, reaching 79 and 78 points respectively. 58 Northern Ireland 49 Scotland 56 Wales 48 North West 50 North East 78 46 West Midlands 79 South West Yorkshire & Humber 71 East Midlands 57 South East 60 East Anglia A measure greater than 50 indicates an increase in Regional Construction and Activity and Outlook. A measure less than 50 indicates an decrease in Regional Construction and Activity and Outlook. Alongside Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands posted an increase of 6 points in February to reach 71. Despite moderate gains of 2 and 4 points respectively, the West Midlands (46) and Scotland (49) have now remained in negative territory for the past four months. The North East managed to post a recovery of 5 points in February, pushing it up to the 50 point mark. Following January s encouraging performance, Wales saw the sharpest decline amongst all of the regions and devolved nations, with a 10 points drop to 56. The North West (48) contracted into negative territory for the first time since April 2013. Northern Ireland continued its expansionary trend, rising by 3 points to 58, whilst the South East remained flat at 57 points. East Anglia s index has exhibited low volatility over the last few months, and this continued in February as it ticked down one point to 60. The UK index, which includes firms working in 5 or more regions dropped to 57 points in February. work. Expansion in the industrial construction sector is highly likely to be driven largely by demand for new distribution and logistics facilities, with the most buoyant markets expected to be in the East Midlands, Greater London, Northern Ireland and Yorkshire & the Humber.
This report has been prepared for publication by Construction Forecasting & Research, which is part of Experian s Market Intelligence Group, with guidance from its Forecasting Committee for the Construction Industries. The members of the committee serve in a personal not a representative capacity. The contribution of the members, and that of the Forecasting Groups (listed in Appendix H), is gratefully acknowledged. Our economic forecasting expertise Experian's team of 20 economists is a leading provider of global, national, regional and local economic forecasts and analysis to the commercial and public sectors. Our foresight helps organisations predict the future of their markets, identify new business opportunities, quantify risk and make informed decisions. For more information, visit www.experian.co.uk/economics Contact James Hastings Head of Construction Futures E: James.Hastings@experian.com T: +44 (0) 207 7746 8263 Experian Market Intelligence Group Would you like to understand how your credit portfolio compares to your peers and how it is likely to be impacted by changes in lending policy, market competition and the economy in the future? Our experts in economics, credit risk, construction, market analysis and portfolio benchmarking combine to provide an indepth understanding of the market and economic context in which you manage your business both now and in the future. How we can help you: An independent unbiased view of the market based upon quantitative analysis of data. Benchmark your portfolio against your peers, both now and forecast into the future Provide economic forecasts specific to your sector Develop accurate business case(s) for entry into new markets Assess future market risk and predict potential economic pressures at a granular level Highlight future revenue opportunities Meet regulatory requirements for stress testing and loss forecasting Experian helping organisations understand the market, economy and future changes in household and business finances. Contact our team on: T: +44 (0) 207 746 8244 or W: www.experian.co.uk/economics James has specialised in research and analysis of the construction industry for the past 24 years, both at the National Economic Development Office and as a founder member of Construction Forecasting and Research, with whom he has filled a number of roles over the years. He is now head of construction futures in Experian s Economics Unit and currently sits on the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Consultative Committee on Construction Industry Statistics. Peter Gutmann Managing Consultant E: Peter.Gutmann@uk.experian.com T: +44 (0) 207 746 8250 After many years in NatWest where he was Deputy Head of the Economics Group, Peter joined Business Strategies (now part of Experian) at the end of 1999. He is involved in many services for major clients and is a key contributor to the regular reports produced in Experian s economics group. He has co-authored books on The Euromarkets and International Financial Policies and Interest Rate Forecasting and Analysis.