Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Foteini Kanellopoulou, Senior Analyst Amsterdam, 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Disclaimer The material and the information contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by H. Clarkson & Co. Ltd ("Clarksons") for general information purposes. The Information is drawn from Clarksons' database and other sources. Clarksons advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons' database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons' database; (iii) whilst Clarksons has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons and its connected persons, and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate. Clarksons and its connected persons make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk. This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved. To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons and its connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of or in connection with the Information, including without limitation any direct, special, indirect or consequential damages (eg damage for loss of business or loss of profits) whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable. These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons and its connected persons or (ii) the liability of Clarksons and its connected persons for fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer connected persons means, in relation to Clarksons, its ultimate holding company, the shareholders, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law. H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD, ST. MAGNUS HOUSE, 3 LOWER THAMES STREET, LONDON, EC3R 6HE TELEPHONE +44 () 27-334-542 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Fundamentals 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Oil Demand & Supply Growth in 212 Demand Supply* North America -31 North America 17 Europe FSU -35 23 Europe -11 China 36 FSU & Eastern Europe 6 India Japan 8 24 Asia & Oceania Other Asia and Oceania 13 Latin America -1 Latin America Africa 12 11 Africa -27 Middle East 18 kbpd OPEC 153 kbpd -5-25 25 5 Updated to October 212 * Shaded Areas are Non-OPEC only Data source: EIA -5 5 1 15 2 31 October 212
Per capita oil cons (litre) Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Oil Consumption per Capita 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, per capita oil cons World oil cons per capita OECD oil cons per capita population World Av=1.7 x China World Av=4.4 x India 797 OECD=5 x China OECD=12.8 x India 1,6 1,485 2,39 2,651 3,521 3,81 5 167 324 425 Million ppl India (1189) Indonesia (248) China (1337) Brazil (23) Mexico (114) OECD Europe (558) Japan (127) S.Korea (48) USA (311) Canada (34) Data source: EIA/US Census Bureau 31 October 212
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 World Seaborne Trade (Billion tonnes) million tonnes Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 3. World Seaborne Oil Trade vs. GDP Oil Trade Growth World Seaborne Oil Trade (LH-axis) Oil Trade trend volume GDP Current Prices (RH-axis) GDP trend volume 2-8 28-11 9 25 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1 Trillion Dollars GDP generates 58 million tonnes of Seaborne Oil Trade 75 6 45 3 15 GDP Current Prices (Trillion Dollars) 2 15 1 5-5 -1 227 236 68-75 Crude Oil Products Data source: World Bank & Clarksons 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Challenges & Opportunities 31 October 212
19 195 191 1915 192 1925 193 1935 194 1945 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Mbpd Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 US. Crude Oil Production 1 8 EIA ESTIMATES 6 4 2 Data Source: EIA 31 October 212
25-Q2 25-Q4 26-Q2 26-Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4 212-Q2 25-Q2 25-Q4 26-Q2 26-Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4 212-Q2 Mbpd Mbpd Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 US. Crude Oil Imports Seaborne Crude* Imports Crude Imports from Canada 1 Middle East Africa Europe Latin America Canada RoW 2.5 Total Canada Crude Imports to US (LH-axis) 9 8 2. 7 6 1.5 5 4 1. 3 2.5 1. Data Source: LLI/GTIS/Clarksons 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Crude Oil Pipeline Developments ESPO (+2m ton by 213) BPS-2 (+2m ton by 213) Sources: ООО «Velesstroy»/Platts/Erina 31 October 212
25-Q2 25-Q4 26-Q2 26-Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4 212-Q2 25-Q2 25-Q4 26-Q2 26-Q4 27-Q2 27-Q4 28-Q2 28-Q4 29-Q2 29-Q4 21-Q2 21-Q4 211-Q2 211-Q4 212-Q2 Million tonnes Million tonnes Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 China & India Seaborne Crude* Imports China India Middle East Africa Europe Middle East Africa EastMed 7 Latin America Rest of World 5 Europe Latin America Rest of World 6 45 4 5 35 4 3 25 3 2 2 15 1 1 5 *includes condensates Data Source: LLI/Clarksons 31 October 212
mbpd Million bpd Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Changes in the Refinery Map Changes in Refinery Output 28-11 Key Refinery Capacity Expansions* 2.5 3. East of Suez West of Suez 2. 1.5 2.5 1. 2.1 2..5. -.5-1. -1.5-1.6 -.2 -.1 -.3.1.8.5 1.5 1..5-2.. 212 213 214 215 216 Data source: IEA/Clarksons. *Based on currently known projects and completion dates. Does not account for project slippage. 31 October 212
1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Million bpd Million bpd Million bpd Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Regional Oil Consumption by Product Type North America Europe Non-OECD Light distillates Middle distillates Fuel oil 12 1 9 8 7 18 16 14 8 6 12 6 5 4 1 8 4 3 6 2 2 1 4 2 Data source: BP Statistical Review 31 October 212
25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 Sulphur Content (%) Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 MARPOL Annex VI (SOx) 5. 4.5 ECA Global 4. 3.5 1/1/12 Potentially Delayed Global* EU Sulphur Directive ~ 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 U.S. ECA in force from 1/8/12 1/7/1 Feasibility study of global cap latest 218 1..5 1/1/1.1% - 1/1/15 1/1/2 1/1/25*. Data source: IMO/EU * 22 global reduction may be delayed subject to feasibility study ~ For inland waterway vessels and ships at berth in European Community ports, 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Fleet Dynamics 31 October 212
1978-198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 1976-198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 No of vessels No of vessels Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Tanker Age Profile Crude Tanker Product Tanker 16 14 12 1 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Orderbook = 14% Fleet 2-12ytd = 81% 23-ytd : +52% fleet increase 25 225 2 175 15 LR2 Panamax/LR1 MR Handy Orderbook = 11% Fleet 2-12ytd = 83% 23-ytd : +1% fleet increase 8 125 6 1 4 75 5 2 25 Note: Aframax excludes coated vessels Data source: Clarksons 31 October 212
1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 ytd No. of vessels $ per day Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Tanker Removals vs. Earnings VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handysize Weighted Average Tanker Earnings 2 18 16 14 5, 45, 4, 35, 12 1 8 6 4 2 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Note: Removals includes losses, demolitions and removals Data source: Clarksons 31 October 212
Million dwt Million dwt Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Tanker Fleet Developments Crude Tanker Product Tanker Delivered Forecast Deliveries Scrapped/Removed Removals Scenario % Fleet Growth (RH-axis) 4 8% 16 16% 3 6% 14 12 14% 12% 2 1-1 29-14 27-17 31 2 6-2 -1-8 24-14 4% 2% % -2% 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 15-4 11-5 8 4 1-3 -2 5-4 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -2 29 21 211 212 213-4% -6 29 21 211 212 213-6% Data source: Clarksons 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Freight & Asset Markets 31 October 212
Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 $ per day $ million $million Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Aframax Timecharter Rates & Prices 1yr TC rates vs. Prices 15yr old vs. Scrap Price Differential 45 1yr TC rate 5yr old Price Scrap Price NB Price 15yr old D/H Price 9 35 15yr old S/H vs. Scrap Price 15yr old D/H vs. Scrap Price 4 8 3 35 3 25 7 6 5 25 2 2 4 15 15 3 1 1 5 2 1 5 Current Data Source: Clarksons 31 October 212
Tanker Market Outlook 12th Mare Forum Ship Finance 212 Thank You 31 October 212