Study on Identification, Analysis and Categorization of Natural Disasters in Northern Greece (Act )

Study on Identification, Analysis and Categorization of Natural Disasters in Northern Greece (Act. 1.1.2) Prepared by Maria Giannakou, Mechanical Engineer, PhD Candidate Christina Sarantidou, Attorney at Law, Research Associate Athanasios Ziliaskopoulos, Associate Professor SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION LABORATORY, DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF THESSALY VOLOS, JANUARY 2007

INDEX INTRODUCTION... 3 Chapter 1... 4 General Profile of Northern Greece... 4 1.1 Definition of Northern Greece... 4 1.2 Administration Structure... 6 1.3 General Economic profile of the area... 7 Chapter 2... 9 Man Made Environment of Northern Greece... 9 2.1 Demographic Data... 9 2.2 Social Elements... 13 2.3 Local Economy... 15 2.4 Transportation... 18 Chapter 3... 21 Natural Environment... 21 3.1 Geographical Elements... 21 3.2 Climatologic Data... 24 3.3 Hydrological Aspects... 25 3.4 Natural Ecosystems... 27 Chapter 4... 31 Identification of the Natural Disaster... 31 4.1 Earthquakes... 31 Fig. 4.2 Seismicity of Greece, 1964-2004 M > 4 (ISC,NOA)... 33 Fig. 4.3 Earthquake hazard potential in Northern Greece... 33 4.2 Fires... 34 4.3 Floods... 37 4.4 Droughts... 39 4.5 Tsunami... 40 Chapter 5... 41 Analysis of Risks and disasters... 41 5.1 Earthquakes... 41 5.2 Fires... 45 5.3 Floods... 57 REFERENCES... 62 2 / 64

INTRODUCTION The present report, entitled Study on Identification, Analysis and Categorization of Natural Disasters in Northern Greece was commissioned in the framework of the project Media Terra- Establishig a Media Observatory for strengthening of the Civil Protection in the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean Basin. The MEDIA TERRA project, which is implemented under the CIP INTERREG IIIB /ARCHIMED, aims at determining, ascertaining and enhancing the role of MEDIA in case a natural disaster occurs. More in particular, the project aims at determining categories of natural risks/ disasters in the Central and Southeast Mediterranean (CSEM), recording prevention and treatment practices of currently used Civil Protection Systems (CPS) and foremost bringing out weak/ strong points in citizens active participation. The present report was conducted with the aim of identifying, analysing and categorising the different types of natural disasters in Northern Greece, by also presenting the most important ones in this area. The geographic area of Northern Greece, constitutes the frontier land contact of country with four states, Albania, FYROM, Bulgaria to the north and Turkey to the east. In general Greece is confronted with a series of natural hazards. Some of them have resulted to very serious disasters with many severe consequences but fortunately the last decade there were no deaths due to natural disasters. 3 / 64

Chapter 1 General Profile of Northern Greece 1.1 Definition of Northern Greece Northern Greece covers an area of 131,957 km 2 and is divided in two regions; Macedonia and Thrace. A number of topographic regions surround the main mountainous core and are often penetrated by extensions of it. The northernmost part, roughly the regions of Greek Macedonia and Thrace, extends in a long, narrow, eastwest band between the Aegean coast and the frontier with the FYROM and Bulgaria. The Evros River in its low-lying, marshy valley marks the Turkish border. Fig. 1.1Northern Greece (light blue color) Source: google images Moreover Macedonia, comprising the northern and northeastern portions of that country, covers an area of about 34,200 km 2. It is bounded by Albania to the west, FYROM and Bulgaria to the north, the region of Thrace to the east, the Aegean Sea to the southeast, and the regions of Thessaly and Epirus to the south. The capital city of the region is Thessaloniki. 4 / 64

Macedonia s location in south eastern Europe Macedonia s location in Greece Fig. 1.2Source: Wikipedia Fig. 1.3 Map of Macedonia Source: Wikipedia Thace (Thraki) is often distinguished as Western Thrace to differentiate the Greek portion of the large ancient region that is now divided in Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey. Thrace covers 8,578 km 2 and is bounded by the Nestos River to the west, the Rhodope Mountains to the north, and the Evros River to the east and corresponds to the southern part of Bulgaria the province of Macedonia, and Turkey, including the Gallipoli Peninsula. Fig. 1.4 Map of Thrace Source: Greek Maps 5 / 64

Fig. 1.5 Map Greece Source: Greek Maps 1.2 Administration Structure Northern Greece is divided in three Regions, Central Macedonia, Western Macedonia and Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, comprising to prefectures. The prefectures are further divided into municipalities. The Ministry of Macedonia Thrace is responsible for the affairs of this geographic apartment. The geographical region of Macedonia also includes the male only autonomous monastic republic of Mount Athos, but this is not part of the Macedonia precincts. 6 / 64

Indeed, Mount Athos lies outside the jurisdiction of most Greek and European laws. Due to the whole mountain's monastic status, it is inaccessible to women. Fig. 1.6 Region of Eastern Macedonia & Thrace Fig. 1.7 Region of Central Macedonia Source: www.gnto.gr Fig. 1.8 Region of West Macedonia Table 1.1 Regions and Prefectures of Northern Greece Regions Prefectures Kastoria Florina West Macedonia Kozani Grevena Pella Imathia Pieria Central Macedonia Kilkis Thessaloniki Chalcidice Serres Drama Kavala East Macedonia and Thrace Xanthi (Thrace) Rodopi (Thrace) Evros (Thrace) 1.3 General Economic profile of the area Agriculture remains an important economic factor for the region, employing 42.8% of the working population. The manufacturing sector has a high concentration of firms in clothing, textiles, food packaging, wood, paper and metal processing. A significant peculiarity of the region is that it is the only oil-producing Mediterranean region in the 7 / 64

EU. Offshore oil wells are located near the island of Thassos. The region counts the highest level of unemployment in Greece. The particularly favourable complex of development incentives is supported by the Community Support Framework and the Regional Development Plans, it offers significant investment opportunities, mainly for the establishment of new technologybased firms, high-tech products and tourism. 8 / 64

Chapter 2 Man Made Environment of Northern Greece 2.1 Demographic Data The Region of West Macedonia has a population of 301,522. The Region of Central Macedonia has a population of 1,871,952 and its capital and largest city is Thessaloniki, with a population of around 773,180. The Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace has a population of around 611,067, according to the last inventory of 2001. In total the Region of Macedonia and Thrace has a population of 11,088,000 according to a 2005estimation. Table 2.1 Population/ Extent and Population Density of Regions in Northern Greece REGION EXTENT (Km 2 ) POPULATION POPULATION DENSITY (inhabitant/ Km 2 ) West Macedonia 9,451 301,522 31.9 Central Macedonia 18,811 1,871,952 99.5 Eastern Macedonia & Thrace 14,157 611,067 43.2 Source: National Statistic Divisions of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 POPULATION 11% 22% Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Region of Central Macedonia 67% Region of West Macedonia 9 / 64

Table 2.2 Population of major towns and cities in Region of Macedonia (Northern Greece) Thessaloniki 773,180 Edessa 25,619 Kavala 63,774 Kilkis 24,812 Serres 56,145 Naoussa 19,870 Katerini 55,721 Nea Moudania 17,032 Drama 55,632 Florina 16,711 Kozani 47,441 Kastoria 16,218 Veria 47,411 Grevena 15,481 Ptolemaida 32,775 Alexandria 13,229 Giannitsa 26296 Polygyros 10,271 Source: National Statistic Division of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 Table 2.3 Population of major towns in Region of Thrace (Northern Greece) Alexandroupoli 35,000 Soufli 5,000 Komotini 35,000 Sapes 3,000 Xanthi 32,000 Iasmos 3,000 Orestiada 13,000 Echinos 2,500 Didimoteicho 8,500 Stavroupoli 1,200 Source: National Statistic Division of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 10 / 64

Fig. 2.2Population Density [inhabitant/km 2 ] Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA), Global Resource Information Database (GRID) - Europe POPULATION - MALE 11% 19% 14% 2% 21% 16% 17% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 POPULATION - FEMALE 13% 17% 19% 3% 15% 20% 13% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 Fig. 2.3Population according to gender and age Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Source: National Statistic Division of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 11 / 64

POPULATION - MALE POPULATION 11% 19% 13% 2% 16% 24% 15% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 51% 49% MALE FEMALE POPULATION FEMALE 12% 14% 20% 3% 15% 22% 14% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 Fig. 2.4Population according to gender and age Region of Central Macedonia Source: National Statistic Division of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 POPULATION - MALE POPULATION 11% 20% 14% 2% 17% 22% 14% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 50% 50% MALE FEMALE POPULATION - FEMALE 11% 17% 18% 4% 16% 21% 13% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-79 >80 Fig. 2.5Population according to gender and age Region of Central Macedonia Source: National Statistic Division of Greece, demographic inventory of 2001 12 / 64

Most inhabitants of the region are heavily concentrated around the city of Thessaloniki, which is Greece's second largest city, the largest port after Piraeus, and the administrative, industrial, and commercial centre of northern Greece. Fewer than 20,000 Muslims remain in the region, these being mostly Pomarks, a Turkicized people speaking a Bulgarian dialect. The inhabitants are overwhelmingly ethnic Greeks and most are members of the Greek Orthodox Church.. Thrace was the only region of Greece in which Muslims were allowed to remain after the population exchanges prescribed by the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. Today the Muslim population is concentrated in the provinces of Rodopi and Xanthi. Most of the region's residents are ethnically Greek, however, and many descend from Greek refugees who returned from Turkey in the Greek expatriation phase of the Lausanne agreement. 2.2 Social Elements According to the study «Classification of Munucipalities of Greece according to their social and economic characteristics» made by Kamargiannakis and Poulikos, the population is divided in the following ten groups, based on their social and economic characteristics. Group 1: Urban regions with relatively low standard of living; Present considerably lower level of education specifically in the young persons where a big percentage has only elementary education. The levels of unemployment are rather low (roughly 10% under the remainder mean) among young people 20-29 years, while particularly low (roughly 20% under the remainder mean) is the employment in people near in the retirement of (60-64 years). High proportion (roughly 10% above the remainder mean) practise technical professions (Kordelio, Evosmos, Stavros (Thessaloniki)) Group 2: Urban municipalities with high standard of living; Includes municipalities of Thessalonica with very high biotic level (for example Panorama). They present the percentage of economically active young people decreased in half, double the content in wages earner, 5 times more than the 13 / 64

percentage workers in the benefit of services, quadruple in the superior administrative executives, sixfold in the scientific professions and ten times more in the professions office. Group 3: Capitals of prefectures; the percentage of illiterate is decreased by the half concerning all the remainder municipalities, the percentage of graduates is increased by one quarter, while quite small are the percentages of economically active young people and occupied in elderly. Group 4: Populated but secondary municipalities; the percentage of lessees and unemployed is lightly increased while the percentage of workers in the agriculture - livestock- farming - fishery is decreased by half concerning the measurements that present all the remainder municipalities. Group 5: Towns and cities in Northern Greece; low proportion of salary at workers in industries and increased the unemployment of young persons concerning all the other cities. Group6: Villages of Northern Greece Industrial areas; Main characteristics of this team are the low proportion of civil servants and high proportion (20% above the mean of all the remainder cities) of workers in manufacturing industries and technically professions (50% above the mean of all remainder cities). Group 7: Coastal Resorts; the percentage of people working in hotels and restaurants is increased at 50% concerning the remainder mean while on the contrary the percentage of those occupied in agriculture and livestock-farming is decreased at the 1/3.(for example Marmara in Chalkidiki) Group 8: Communities of Xanthi and Rodopi Minorities; includes 16 municipalities of Xanthi and Rodopi. The percentage of married girls aged of 10-14 years is 7 times more while the percentage of people occupied in agriculture and livestock-farming is almost 5 times more in these communities in relation to the mean of rest municipalities-communities. Group 9: Non coastal communities in Northern Greece; The percentage of married girls aged 15-19 years seems to be increased at 1/3 while the 14 / 64

percentage of illiterate people particularly in ages above 40 years are significantly increased in relation to the remainder municipalities. Group 10: Municipalities in Northern Greece; includes municipalities that have population near 2000 people. The percentages of young people economically active working in livestock-farming and agriculture are increased almost to 30%. 2.3 Local Economy The Region of Macedonia possesses some of the richest farmlands in Greece in the plain of Drama and the valleys of the Strimon and Axios. A wide variety of foodstuffs and cash crops are being grown, including rice, wheat, beans, olives, cotton, tobacco, fruit, grapes, wine and other alcoholic beverages. Food processing and textile weaving constitute the principal manufacturing industries. Tourism is a major industry along the coast, particularly in the Chalcidice peninsula, the island of Thasos and the northern approaches to Mount Olympus. Many tourists originate from Greece's immediate neighbours. 2003 16000 14000 12000 10000 EURO 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Gross Domestic Product Deposits per inhabitant Declered income per taxed Prosperity indicators Tax of income per taxed Fig. 2.6 Local Economy Region of Central Macedonia Source: www.economics.gr 15 / 64

The Western Macedonia Region has one operational Industrial Area in Florina and another one under construction in Kozani. The secondary sector is very important for the Regional economy, mainly due to the mining activities, the production of electric power (70% of country s total power is produced in the Region) and the fur-leather sector. However, soft structures have not followed the general improvement of heavy infrastructures, a situation that has to be remedied, in order to achieve an overall higher economic development of the Region. 2003 16000 14000 12000 10000 EURO 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Gross Domestic Product Deposits per inhabitant Declered income per taxed Tax of income per taxed Prosperity Indicators Fig. 2.7 Local Economy Region of West Macedonia Source: www.economics.gr The R&D services are at a rather low level: only 3,5% of the country s total research foundations are situated in the Region. Among them, the Technological Educational Insitute plays an important role in supporting the regional research and educational efforts. However, an enhanced interaction with SME s will be a crucial 16 / 64

factor, in order to improve the productivity and the added value of products and services generated in the Region of Western Macedonia. Some of its more famous products are marbles, Saffron, fruits, local wines (Kozani, Amyntaio), furs (Kastoria, Siatista) and specialized arts and crafts industry. In the last years the region is being developed in tourism mainly during winter. It is the only Greek periphery without sea coast, but on the other side there are a lot of lakes, mountains, graphic villages and two big ski centres in Florina (Vigla) and Grevena (Vasilitsa) and one other under construction in Kozani (Velvendos). The plain in Evros, the easternmost province, is a traditionally productive agricultural area, enriched by the fertile soil of the Maritsa Valley and by abundant water from the Maritsa River and its tributaries. The plains in the other two Thracian provinces, Rodopi and Xanthi, also feature rich soil that is especially favourable for tobacco cultivation. The manufacturing industries of Thrace consist mainly of the processing of agricultural crops, tobacco curing, wine production and the weaving of textiles. The plain of Drama and the valleys of the Strimon and Axios rivers are the richest farmlands in Greece and produce rice, olives, cotton, and tobacco. Fruit and grapes are widely grown, and wine and ouzo are also produced. Corn (maize) and rice are grown on the lowlands of the Evros River and the plains of western Thrace. Vineyards are found around Alexandroupolis, where wine is produced. Oyster farming around Keramotí and fishing near Komotini provide exports to central Europe. 17 / 64

2003 12000 10000 8000 Euro 6000 4000 2000 0 Gross Domestic Product Deposits per inhabitant Declered income per taxed Prosperity Indicators Tax of income per taxed Fig. 2.8 Local Economy Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Source: www.economics.gr The island of Thasos, in the Aegean Sea near the mouth of the Nestos River, has rich mineral deposits that supported a prosperous community. With its minerals long ago exhausted, Thasos became a tourist resort in the 1970s. Offshore oil deposits have been exploited in the 1980s and early 1990s. 2.4 Transportation Greece today has an integrated transportation structure allowing fast and safe travelling all over the country. Parts of the closed motorway of Egnatia Odos in Northern Greece (total length 680 km) are still under construction, while interventions for the development of PATHE - the central road axis connecting the cities of Patras, Athens, and Thessalonica - are extremely important. The 670km Egnatia Odos motorway is widely accepted as one of the largest and most ambitious civil engineering projects in Europe at present. The motorway will run across Northern Greece from its starting-point at Igoumenitsa, across the Prefectures of Thesprotia, Ioannina, Grevena, Kozani, Imathia, Thessaloniki, Kavala, Xanthi, Rodopi and Evros, to the village of Kipi on the Turkish border. Designed to the specifications of the Trans-European Road network, it is a 24.5mwide dual carriageway with two traffic lanes and an emergency lane in each direction. 18 / 64

Nine major vertical axes connect the motorway with Albania, FYROM, Bulgaria and Turkey. During the period from February 2000 to early 2006 446km of the motorway had been opened. In the remainder of 2006 a further 34km of motorway have been opened and there are 165km of motorway sections still under construction. The final date for completion is late 2007 early 2008. The finished Egnatia Odos will form the backbone of the Northern Greece's transport system and will link the country to other Balkan countries (Albania, FYROM, Bulgaria and Turkey) through nine major vertical axes. It will also connect four of the country's major ports (Igoumenitsa, Volos, Thessaloniki, Kavala and Alexandroupoli) and six of its airports (Ioannina, Kastoria, Kozani, Thessaloniki, Kavala and Alexandroupoli). Thessaloniki, the capital of the region of Macedonia is a major port city and industrial center; Kavala is the other harbour of Macedonia. Apart from the principal airport at Thessaloniki (Makedonia Airport), airports also exist in Kavala (Great Alexander Airport), Kozani (Filippos Airport) and Kastoria (Aristotelis Airport). The "Via Egnatia" motorway crosses the full distance of Macedonia, linking its main cities. The capitals of most prefectures are connected to each other by a dense network of bus and railway services. The intercity coach service (KTEL) operates vehicles that meet all modern technical specifications for the safe and pleasant transport of passengers. 19 / 64

Fig. 2.9 Egnatia Odos map showing travel times and major cities in northern Greece Source: http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/egnatia/ 20 / 64

Chapter 3 Natural Environment 3.1 Geographical Elements The region of Northern Greece consists of a series of forest-clad, crystalline mountain massifs and plateaus created by the fracturing of the old Hercynian block and separated from each other by the alluvial deposits of the five great rivers of northern Greece, the Maritsa, Nestos, Struma, Vardar, and Aliakmon rivers. The complexities of that fracturing account for the odd three-pronged shape of the Chalcidice Peninsula, on whose easternmost prong, Mount Athos (Holy Mountain) is located, the famous site of Greek Orthodox monastic communities. Along and beyond the Bulgarian border rise the Rhodope Mountains, composed mainly of sharp-edged and frequently sloping plateaus, often rising more than 7,000 feet (1,800 metres) and reaching 7,287 feet (2,212 metres) at Mount Órvilos. Fig. 3.1 Topography of Greece Source: Encyclopedia Britannica 21 / 64

Most of the interior of Macedonia is hilly or mountainous and reaches elevations of about 6,500 feet (2,000 m), but the most notable topographic feature is the Chalcidice Peninsula, which extends three fingers of land southeastward into the Aegean Sea. Mount Athos rises over 2,000 m from the eastern peninsula. Topographically, Thrace alternates between mountain - enclosed basins of varying size and deeply cut river valleys. A wide plateau extends southward from the Rhodope Mountains and separates the lowlands along the Evros River from the plains of western Thrace. Table 3.1 List of Mountains of Northern Greece Prefecture Mountain Altitude (m) Falakro 2230 Orvilos 2212 Menikio 1963 Pagaio 1956 Deliboska 1950 Koula 1827 Bouzala 1814 Kouslar 1704 Varvara 1547 East Macedonia Tsernaki 1523 Anthiro 1332 Agistro 1330 Tsal Taj 1298 Sjourotopi 1150 Kotza 1115 Vertiskos 1103 Souza 1089 Karagioze 1055 Disoro 860 Simbolo 694 22 / 64

Table 3.1 List of Mountains of Northern Greece (continue) Prefecture Mountain Altitude (m) Voras Kaimaktsalan 2524 Gramos 2520 Varnoundas 2334 Vasilitsa 2249 Ligos 2177 Vitsi 2128 Siniatsiko Askio 2111 Vourinos 1866 Voio 1802 West Macedonia Boutsi Orlovo 1776 Triklari 1748 Moriki 1703 Melia 1688 Mali Madi 1652 Kamvounia 1615 Chasia 1564 Antichasia 1410 Dovras 1378 Skopos 1284 Aetorachi 1257 Central Macedonia Olympous 2917 Kaimaktsalan 2524 Orvilos 2212 Pieria (Flabouro) 2190 Jena 2182 Pinovo 2156 Vermio 2052 Athos 2033 Beles (Kerkini) 2031 Menoikio 1963 Pagaio 1956 Vrodous 1849 23 / 64

Table 3.1 List of Mountains of Northern Greece (continue) Prefecture Mountain Altitude (m) Xirovouni 1804 Black mountain 1653 Paiko 1650 Kamvounia 1615 Rock 1551 Flabouro 1509 Chortiatis 1201 Cholomontas 1165 Central Macedonia Vertiskos 1103 Kerdilio 1092 Stratoniko 918 Disoro 860 Itamos Sithonias 817 Simbolo 694 Volvi 659 Kalavros 642 Great Zigos 510 Kasandra 307 Source: Hellenic Mountain Climbers Union 3.2 Climatologic Data The climate in Northern Greece is characterized by relatively high annual breath of temperature, normalized distribution of rainfalls and reduction of dry period in one to two months. The winter is sharp and the summer is rainy. A temperate climate is found in Central and Eastern Macedonia as well as in Thrace at places like Komotini, Xanthi and northern Evros; with cold, damp winters and hot, dry summers. In the winter low-pressure systems reach Greece from the North Atlantic, bringing rain and moderating temperatures but also drawing cold winds from the eastern Balkans over Macedonia and Thrace as they pass over to the Aegean Sea and warmer winds from the south, creating an average January temperature differential of 4 C to Thessaloniki (6 C). The mountains of Macedonia and Thrace have colder continental winters influenced by winds channelled through the river valleys from the north In summer the influence of low-pressure systems is much less, allowing for hot, dry conditions and an average sea-level temperature of 27 C in July. Summer winds 24 / 64

have a moderating effect along the coast, but very dry, hot winds have a parching effect that causes drought in the Aegean area. Elevation has an appreciable effect on temperature and precipitation at all latitudes, however. Fig. 3.2 Map shows the divergence of the min temperature in 2004 (climatologically data 1961-1990) Source: www.meteo.gr A Mediterranean climate prevails in southern Thrace and is modified by continental influences in the Rhodope Mountains. The range of temperatures is greater in Thrace than in the southern Greek mainland; average temperatures in Alexandroupolis range from 43 F (6 C) in January to 80 F (27 C) in July. Samothrace has a Mediterranean climate with mild winters and fairly cool summers. 3.3 Hydrological Aspects Macedonia covers an area of some 34,231 km². High ground makes up much of the region with mountains reaching up to 2,900 m (6,500 ft); extensive fertile plains lie along the Aegean Sea. It is also traversed by the valleys of the Aliakmon, Axios, Nestos and Strymonas rivers, all of which drain into the Aegean. The offshore island of Thasos is within the precincts of Macedonia; together with Samothrace 25 / 64

The coastal areas along the North Aegean Sea and the river valleys of the region constitute the only significant lowlands in all of Macedonia. Unlike Greece's other maritime regions, most of Thrace's coastline is smooth, broken only at the mouth of Lake Vistonis, which is actually a bay of the Aegean Sea located on the boundary of the provinces of Rodopi and Xanthi. West of Xanthi the Nestos reaches the marshy, alluvial coastal plain of Chrysopolis. In Samothrace the smooth coastline forms four capes: Akrotiri, Malathria or Megalo Akrotiri, Angisto and Kipo In northern Greece, the major rivers originate outside the Mediterranean zone, and although their water level is highest during the winter there is sufficient rain in summer to keep them in constant flow. The Evros (known as the Meric in Turkey and Maritsa in Bulgaria where it originates) forms the Greco-Bulgarian border for 16 km and then the Greco-Turkish border for 192 km. Turning south to form a delta in the Gulf of Enez, it completes a total journey of 483 km. A major tributary, originating in Bulgaria as the Arda, crosses Thrace to join the Evros as the Ardhos. Further west, the Bulgarian Mesta enters as the Greek Nestos, to form the boundary between Thrace and Macedonia, travel for 130 km in Greece, and forms a delta in the Aegean at the end of its total journey of 241 km. Still further to the west in Macedonia, the Strymon, originating in Bulgaria as the Struma, flows for a total of 346 km, with 118 km in Greece, to the Aegean. West of the Strymon is the Axios, flowing for 76 km in Greece from former Yugoslavia (known there as the Vardar) and then into the Aegean west of Salonika. The Aliakmon drains western Macedonia for 297 km and then into the Aegean. Three of the major lakes are shared with other countries. Limni Megali Prespa, of which Greece claims 38.3 km 2 or 14 % of the total area of 274 km 2, is shared with Albania (known there as Liqen i Prespës) and former Yugoslavia (Prespansko Jezero). This oligo-eutrophic cyprinid lake, at an elevation of 853 m, has a maximum depth of 54.2 m, an average depth of 20 m, and drains into Lake Ohrid (Albania and former Yugoslavia) through an underground channel. Only a small tip of Limni Mikri Prespa or Ventrok lies in Albania (known there as Liqen i Prespës se vogël); 43.1 km 2 lies in Greece. The third international lake, Doirani, lying at an elevation of 148 m, has a total area of 43 km 2 of which 15 km 2 26 / 64

(35 percent) lies in Greece, and the remainder in former Yugoslavia where it is known as Doiransko. This eutrophic lake has a maximum depth of 10.4 m and a mean depth of 6.5 m. A typical representative of the Aegean lakes, it produces cyprinids. In the northern Greek lakes only Mikri Prespa and Megali Prespa belong to the Adriatic Basin 3.4 Natural Ecosystems The great variety in landscape, climate and rich wetlands, lakes and rivers creates the perfect environment in Northern Greece for a large number of flora and fauna species, with bird-life making the most impressive presence. It is a considered paradise for thousands of resident and migratory bird species, amphibian species, endemic populations of invertebrates and fish, reptiles and a great variety of insects. The hydro-biospheres are pieces in a more complex mosaic that includes wetlands, dry meadows, hedges, small bush forests and rural landscape. Finally, the northern forests are home to the wildcat, marten, roe deer, and occasionally the wolf and lynx, whereas jackals, wild goats and hedgehogs live in the south. Evros Delta is situated in the borders of two regions that have different characteristics. Mediterranean and southern European characteristics are obvious in the region as well as the influence of the Black sea and Kaspia regions especially concerning the existing vegetation. For this reason, the habitats of the Evros Delta are special in the Mediterranean due to their unique flora and fauna species. The Delta's vegetation characteristics are not only influenced by the climate but also by soil characteristics, such as the composition, the water content and the salinity. Because of the Delta's geographical location, its vegetation is dominated by species that are usually found in Eastern regions. The flora of the Evros Delta area includes approximately 350 plant species according to studies conducted in the area. Tamarisks in Evros River Source: Life Nature, Prefecture of Evros 27 / 64

The Evros Delta is also very important because of the numbers of birds, amphibians, reptiles, mammals and fish that it hosts. From a total of 28 species of amphibians and reptiles that can be found in Evros Delta, 8 species are included in Annex II of the Habitats Directive. Forty-six fish species have been recorded in the entire delta area. Five of these fish species are included in Annex II of 92/43/EEC as well as 2 species of mammals out of the total of 40 mammal species that have been recorded in the wetland. Swans (Cygnus olor) Source: Life Nature, Prefecture of Evros The Dalmatian Pelican Source: Life Nature, Prefecture of Evros The dense forests and rocky outcrops of the Dadia Forest, upstream on the Evros River in Thrace, created into a national reserve in 1980, are shelter to the largest range of birds of prey in Europe. In 1998, the inner zone of the Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli Forest was declared a wildlife reserve. At the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa, Dadia is on one of the two main bird migration routes in Europe and has a unique mosaic of habitats. It has the most diverse range of predatory birds including 36 of the 38 European species of diurnal birds, of which 20 nest there permanently. It is renowned as one of two remaining European feeding and breeding grounds (the other is in Spain) for rare raptors such as the black and griffin vultures. The forest provides the necessary tranquillity for the vultures' long reproduction period. Within the protected area there are 219 species of birds, 40 species of reptiles and amphibians and 48 species of mammals. 28 / 64

Dadia Forest Source: Embassy of Greece Black vulture, Dadia Forest Source: Malawi Cichlid Homepage Lake Mikri Prespa has several extended shallow zones with reedbeds and aquatic vegetation, wet meadows, pastures and agricultural land and meadows and has the richest colony of fish-eating birds in Europe, including cormorants, ibises, egrets and herons. In winter, thousands of ducks are recorded, despite the freezing of the lakes. Is one of the Greek National Parks. Lake Prespa Source: www.greecetravel.com Lake Prespa Source:www.greecetravel.com/ Mountain Olympus in Macedonia is the first area in Greece to be designated as a national park. The area has a multitude of different species of flowers and birdlife, and offers many scenic walks and views. 29 / 64

Mountain Olympus The Nestos Delta is of exceptional importance for wildlife. Οn the banks of the Nestos, from Toxotes to the Thrace Sea, grows one of the most beautiful riverine forests of all Europe the largest expanse of riparian woodland (dominated by poplar Populus, willow Salix and plane Platanus) in the southern Balkans. The sand dunes extend for 50kms eastwards from Keramoti and are the largest example of this habitat in north-eastern Greece. The lagoons and the salty marsh constitute an important place for feeding or nesting for various kinds of birds. Also there have been observed over than 254 kinds of birds. Nestos Delta Source:Municipality of Topeiros, Prefecture of Eastern Macedonia - Thrace 30 / 64

Chapter 4 Identification of the Natural Disaster Northern Greece is vulnerable mostly to floods, fires and earthquakes. The last years it was hit mainly by fires and floods, but fortunately in the most cases there were only material damages and no loss of human lives, except for some cases, like the earthquake in Thessaloniki in 1978 where 45 people where killed and 220 were injured. 4.1 Earthquakes Greece is the most seismically active country in Europe, accounting for more than half of the continent s seismic energy release. It s the first seismogenic country in Europe and the sixth in the world. On a broad scale the tectonics of Greece is controlled by the northward migration of the Arabian and African Plates, and the counter clockwise rotation and westward translation of the Anatolian-Aegean block, relative to a fixed Eurasian Plate. The Anatolian-Aegean block is a lens shaped block that stretches west-to-east from near the west coast of Greece to eastern Turkey, and north-to-south from the Black Sea to the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. The northern boundary of the Aegean plate is more complicated (Fig. 4.1). On the east, it is clearly defined by the Anatolian fault which runs through northern Turkey to the west coast of Turkey. The most interesting geomorphologic structure from tectonics view in the Northern Aegean is the ditch, in a depth of 1,500m.Extensions of it to NE are possibly the small sea basins of Marmara. The western part of the northern crack of Anatolia reaches Thrace. However, west of the Anatolian fault and under the Aegean Sea, there are no clearly defined seismic zones according to Mertier et al., 1979, to mark the westward extension of the north Aegean plate boundary. 31 / 64

Fig. 4.1 Anatolian Plate Source: www.astro.gr/general/earth/region.htm The most published earthquake focal mechanisms in the northern Aegean and in northern Greece can be interpreted as either left-lateral strike-slip faults trending northwest or NW-trending normal faulting (as was the 1978 Volvi - Langada main shock). A map (Fig. 4.2) published by Mercier et al. (1979) shows a pattern of rightlateral and left-lateral strike-slip faulting in the northern Aegean region as deduced from surface faulting and from focal mechanism principal stress trajectories. Fig. 4.2Northern Aegean trajectories (dashed lines) of surface faulting (heavy lines) and focal mechanism data in the Balkans and Asia minor Source: Mercier et al. (1979) 32 / 64

The seismicity of Northern Greece is shown in Fig. 4.2, where it is obvious that most of the earthquakes in the northern area are superficial and during years the 1964-2004 Calkidiki and West Macedonia were mostly affected. As it shown in Fig. 4.3 the Region of Central Macedonia belongs to high seismic hazard zone, the Region of West Macedonia belongs to the low and moderate seismic hazard zone and finally the Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace belongs to the moderate seismic hazard zone. Fig. 4.2 Seismicity of Greece, 1964-2004 M > 4 (ISC,NOA) Source: University of Athens, Geological department Fig. 4.3 Earthquake hazard potential in Northern Greece Source: Espon - INTERACT Interreg III project database 33 / 64

As far as the impacts of earthquakes, they are various. Economic losses, human psychological and physical injuries or even losses and infrastructure damage are some of the earthquakes effects. In the urban groups, the economic losses due to major earthquakes and attributed factors are: cost of re-establishment (repair aid) of buildings and other technical work, lifting of ruins, search for survivors, housing, nutrition and the care of earthquake victims reduction of economic and commercial activity. There are not only direct impacts of an earthquake event but also activation of other geological phenomena such as liquidation of ground, landslides, collapses of rocks and marine waves (tsunamis) with equally serious repercussions. At this point it is necessary to add that the number of victims or even the damage at infrastructures of the region that happens during the genesis of the earthquake might also be considered as a measure of seismic danger. The damages or losses that are caused by an earthquake or the losses don t depend only on the size of the earthquake but also on the quality of the infrastructure. 4.2 Fires In the past few years, there was an increase in frequency and extent of forest fires in the Mediterranean region and had a significant impact on soil erosion (European Commission, 2001). The causes of forest fires may be either of natural or human origin. Fires caused naturally, are easier to detect and manage; they represent only a small percentage of the total number of fires and area burnt. On the other hand, it is the human factor that is responsible for the greatest share of fire outbreaks (either deliberately or accidentally). In the Mediterranean Basin, which is partially covered by productive and non productive forests, bushes and pasture lands and low vegetation regions, the forest fires play a sovereign role. The forests and especially those that are developed in low hypsometric areas in which the climate is characterized as formal Mediterranean, are very good adapted in extreme climatic conditions as is the drought and other. The 34 / 64

particular characteristics of Mediterranean type of vegetation, which have taken shape as the result of long mechanisms of adaptation in such conditions (for example flammable types of vegetation) in combination with the characteristics of Mediterranean climate, such as powerful winds particularly in the fire period, extended land summertime and others, encourage the beginning and distribution of forest fires. The effect of forest fires in the dynamics of natural ecosystems can be positive or negative proportionally to the particular characteristics of fire as intensity, press, frequency and other. However, the large number of forest fires that outbreak each year and often in the same regions, entails hundreds of thousands of acres of burned extents and constitutes a real threat for the natural ecosystems. In addition, forests regulate extreme floods incidents and prevent soil erosion, recharge springs and groundwater layers, provide habitants for wildlife and improve living conditions in neighbouring urban built up areas. Dry hot mediterranean type Intense hot mediterannean type Calm hot mediterranean type Intense mid mediterranean type Calm mid mediterranean type hypo Mediterranean type hypo non dry with minor dry period temperate without dryness Fig. 4.4 Bioclimatic Characteristics Source: Department of forestry and nature environment, Aristotelio University, Greece For instance, a large fire destroyed extensive areas in northern Greece and in high elevation where the most valuable from ecological and timber-produced point of view forests are found. The national park of Pindus, an important biotope of the brown bear, was threatened by fire in the year 2000. From the above and based on Fig. 4.4 and Fig. 4.5, Chalcidice, Mount Athos, Thessaloniki, Kavala and partial Xanthi, Rodopi and Evros municipalities, because of 35 / 64

the intense mid Mediterranean bioclimatic characteristics, are vulnerable to a forest fire. Yet the biggest part of Northern Greece is prone to start a fire as it is certified in Fig. 4.6. Fig. 4.5 Altitude zones Source: Department of forestry and nature environment, Aristotelio University, Greece Fig. 4.5 Altitude zones Source: Department of forestry and nature environment, Aristotelio Low University, Greece Mediate High Fig. 4.6 Map of Fire risk zones Source: Department of forestry and nature environment, Aristotelio University, Greece Finally the main reason for fire increase in the last decades is probably the changes in land use. Climatic factors should also be considered as a contributing factor. Fires tend to be concentrated in summer when the temperatures are high, and air humidity and fuel moisture are low. Predictions on climate warming in the Mediterranean basin indicate an increase in air temperature and a reduction in summer rainfall (Houghton et al. 1996). Although there is uncertainty on the mean and variance of the precipitation changes, all predictions suggest a future increment in water deficit. 36 / 64

These changes would lead to an increase in water stress conditions for plants, changes in fuel conditions and increase of fire risk, with the consequent increase of ignition probability and fire propagation. Analysis of past climate data already shows some of these trends (Maheras 1988, Amanatidis et al.1993, Piñol et al. 1998). The climate changes that are predicted to occur in the near future as a result of releasing greenhouse gases are likely to induce increased fire risk not only in the Mediterranean area, but also in other fire-prone regions of the world (Flannigan and van Wagner 1991, Torn and Friend 1992). 4.3 Floods Fig. 4.7 Map of Fire risk zones Source: FAO Forestry Greece The floods pose the more frequent natural disaster, together with fires, for the area of Northern Greece. The main causes of floods are heavy rains, strong storms, forest fires, elevation of rivers plane or snow melting. The reprocess of dams is also common and in this case the impacts are enormous. Especially, the Region of Evros has experienced many of these phenomena during the last years, including the fact that, Evros River, Nestos River and Strymonas River originate from Bulgaria and Evros River runs through Turkey, it is an international river and the cooperation for the flood management of the rivers is vital. 37 / 64

Also comparison of aerial photos, maps and triangulation data reveals that in the last 40 years a part of the Thessaloniki s coastal plain, a delta formed in the last 2500 yr, subsided at a rate of up to 10 cm/yr. As a consequence the sea invaded up to 2 km inland; precious land in the suburbs of the city was lost, while a village and major industrial plants are in risk of flooding. Part of the land was reclaimed thanks to barriers, pumping and artificial raising of the land surface. Yet, the situation is unstable and flooding is not unusual. Ground water withdrawal for the needs of the Thessaloniki metropolitan complex has initially been regarded as the cause of the subsidence. However, the lack of correlation in space and in time between fluctuations of piezometric levels, topographic changes and pumping indicates that the observed subsidence should be regarded as the cumulative effect of several factors, including consolidation of nearsurface sediments due to the decline of the piezometric level and the partial abandonment of the delta, oxidation of peat soils in the vadose zone, synsedimentary deformation (faulting and flow) and loading-induced consolidation of deeper sediments. Finally Fig. 4.8 shows that the Prefectures of Evros, Pierria and Imathia are in the moderate flood risk zone. Nevertheless Turkey that borders with Prefecture of Evros, is in the high risk zone. Consequently, Evros Prefecture can easily be affected from a flood that will occur in Turkey. Moreover, Prefecture of Central Macedonia is in the low risk zone but F.Y.R.O.M belongs to the high level of flood risk. Consequently, Pella, Kilkis, Serres and Florina Municipalities and the Prefecture of Evros are possible to be flooded or to be affected from floods in the neighbouring countries. Fig. 4.8 Flood recurrence in Northern Greece Source: Espon INTERACT INTERREG III project database 38 / 64

4.4 Droughts Droughts are one of the major weather related disasters and recent events have demonstrated Greece s continuing exposure to this natural hazard. Drought conditions develop slowly, often unnoticed and can persist for years over very wide areas with serious economic, social and environmental consequences. For instance in Alexandroupoli, the mean rainfall in December was by far lower than the mean of time period 1961 1990. Also during the summer of 2003, the rainfall deficit extended with drought conditions lasting from March to September (Fig. 4.8). Fig. 4.8 Extent and severity of 2003 Source: Towards a European Drought Policy, by the EurAqua network of Europe s leading freshwater research organizations Nevertheless, in the area of Northern Greece the impacts of droughts are not visible yet. This probably is due to the forests, the lakes and the rivers that prevail in the area. (Fig. 4.9) 39 / 64

Fig. 4.9 Change of dry spell length (climate change induced) affecting drought potential Source: ESPON INTERACT INTERREG III project database 4.5 Tsunami Them most seldom type of flood in Greece is the coastal flood, which appears in the coastal regions because of the ripples of the sea or a big lake. The ripples are usually caused by strong winds in the area, while rarely gravity sea waves could happen. Although the area of Northern Greece hasn t experienced any tsunami event in the recent years, the hazard in the coastal areas exists, especially in the area of Chalcidice, according to NATHAN (Fig. 4.10). FYROM Hazard in coastal areas Fig. 4.10Tsunami (seismic sea wave) Source: NATHAN Internet Version (http://mrnathan.munichre.com) 40 / 64

Chapter 5 Analysis of Risks and disasters 5.1 Earthquakes Regarding to the recent seismic activity there have been two seismic periods with great seismic activity in the Northern Greece area during this century. The first one started in the region of Volvi - Langada lakes with a main shock of Mo = 6.6 (Assiros 1902) and continued in Bulgaria (1903-1905) to the north with a main shock of Mo = 7.6 (Kresna 1904) and in the Athos peninsula to the southeast with a main shock of Mo = 7.4 (1905). The second period started in Yugoslavia with a main shock of Mo = 6.6 (Valandovo 1931) and continued southeastward (1932-1933) with a main shock and with other shocks some of which had their epicenters in the region of Volvi- Langada lakes. Moreover, the Volvi-Langadha Lakes area is within the diffuse northern boundary of the Aegean plate. The Aegean plate is generally thought (McKenzie, 1978; Dewey and Sengor; 1979) to be moving southwest in relation to the surrounding plates and is overthrusting the African plate at the Hellenic (also known as Cretan or Aegean) arc (Fig. 5.1). The Hellenic arc forms the southern and western boundaries of the Aegean plate from southern Turkey through the Mediterranean Sea to the western coast of Yugoslavia. Fig. 5.1 Sketch of plate boundaries and motions in the Aegean Plates. Heavy line are faults; open triangles on heavy lines indicate the subduction zone with the triangles on the upper plate. Source: Dewey and Sengor 1979 41 / 64

The major earthquakes in Northern Greece, their location, size and impacts are summarized in Table 5.1. Table 5.1 List of major earthquakes in Northern Greece (period 1978 2006) Date Location Size 17/08/2006 Central Chalkidiki & Thessaloniki Associated disaster Impacts 4,2Richter - - 06/08/1995 Konitsa 5,6 Richter - 1,500 affected Kozani, 26 killed 13/05/1993 Thessaloniki, 60 injured 6,6 Richter - Grevena- 15,000 affected Kozani, Patras 450,000,000 US$ 27/03/1993 Pyrgos 5,2 Richter - 21/12/1990 Goumenitsa (50km north Thessaloniki) 16/10/1988 Near Killini 5,5 Richter - Landslide / Mudslide 23/03/1983 Vonitsa area 5,8 Richter - 10/03/1981 Greece Albania border region 20/06/1978 Salonica 5,6 Richter Landslide / Mudslide 1 killed 16 injured 1,500 affected 1 killed 60 injured 25 injured 7 injured 480 affected 2 killed 450 affected 50 killed 100 injured 600,000 affected 250,000,000 US$ damage Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"(Created on: 07/12/2006.) 42 / 64

2000-2004 1995-1999 1990-1994 1985-1989 5-5.9 6-6.9 >7 Fig. 5.2 Earthquakes in Northern Greece (1985 2004) Source: United Nations Environment Programme (DEWA, GRID) - Europe Based on the above maps, we can conclude that during the period 1995 1999, the West Macedonia Region suffered from more earthquakes in a scale of 5 to 6.9 Richter, than the other periods of time (1985 1994 and 2000 2004). From the side of vulnerability and the physical exposure of regions on Northern Greece, Chalkidi, part of Thessaloniki and Serres have high ground acceleration (2.50 to 3.99 m/s 2 ) and this makes them prone to earthquake shocks. On the other hand, the 43 / 64

Region of West Macedonia, Pella, Kilkis, Imathia, Pierria (from Central Macedonia Region) and the Region of East Macedonia and Thrace have moderate ground acceleration (0.80 to 2.49 m/s 2 ) and that makes them less vulnerable (Fig. 5.4). Nevertheless, all these regions are neighbouring, so a major earthquake, no matter the epicentre can affect them in different scale. Ground Acceleration very high (> 4.00 m/s 2 ) high (2.50 to 3.99 m/s 2 ) moderate (0.80 to 2.49 m/s 2 ) Fig. 5.3 Legend Probability of Maximum Peak Source: United Nations Environment Programme (DEWA, GRID) - Europe > 100'000 10'000-10'000 1'000-10'000 100-1'000 10 100 Fig 5.4 Legend Physical Exposure (People/year) Source: United Nations Environment Programme (DEWA, GRID) - Europe Moreover, based on Fig 5.4 Thessaloniki has the greatest physical exposure among all the cities in Northern Greece. Thessaloniki is in zones of moderate seismicity, but faces the threat of distant large magnitude earthquakes. The city, in the past was struck by several earthquakes, as its urban area is located on the Axios-Vardar 44 / 64

seismogenic zone, which is adjacent to Servomacedonian massif, one of the most seismotectonically active regions in Europe. Fig. 5.5 Simplified geotechnical characterization Source: An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios: The case of Thessaloniki (Greece), by Pitilakis, Anastasiadis, Alexoudis, Argyroudis Fig. 5.6 Epicenter map of earthquakes recorded in the broader Mygdonia basin area during the period 1989-1999 Source:EUROSEIS - RISK 5.2 Fires The areas of Northern Greece are rich in vegetation, forestry and agricultures. Every year, numerous of fires break out in several regions, mainly during the summer. Recent forest fires burned thousands of acres of forestry and agriculture in Chalcidice, 45 / 64

Sithonia and Holly Mountain. Fig. 5.7 shows the starting points of fire during the past decade. Fig. 5.7 Starting Points of Fires The affected areas from forest fires during the time period 1997 2004 (Fig. 5.8 & Fig. 5.9) are Chalcidice in 1997, 1998 and especially on 2001 and Evros region in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2004. However, in the wider region of Northern Greece there were minor events of fire cases, according to the fire maps. (Fig. 5.8 & Fig. 5.9) 46 / 64

FIRES Fire increase in the last decades is probably changes in land use, climatic factors should be considered as a contributing factor. Fires tend to be concentrated in summer when temperatures are high, and air humidity and fuel moisture are low. Predictions on climate warming in the Mediterranean basin indicate an increase in air temperature and a reduction in summer rainfall. 2004 2003 2001 2000 Fig. 5.8 Fire in Northern Greece (2000 2004) Source: United Nations Environment Programme (DEWA, GRID) - Europe 47 / 64