Комиссия ЮНВТО для Европы Пятьдесят четвертое заседание Батуми, Грузия, 9 мая 212 года CEU/54/4 Мадрид, апрель 212 года Язык оригинала: английский Пункт 4 предварительной повестки дня ТУРИЗМ ПЕРСПЕКТИВА 23 Примечание Генерального секретаря С настоящим документом Генеральный секретарь представляет членам Комиссии ЮНВТО для Европы Power Point документ по Туризм перспектива 23, который будит представлен в течении Собрании Комиссии. World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) - A Specialized Agency of the United Nations Please recycle Capitán Haya 42, 282 Madrid, Spain. Tel: (34) 91 567 81 / Fax: (34) 91 571 37 33 omt@unwto.org / unwto.org
Tourism Towards 23 Advance release 54th Meeting of the UNWTO Commission for Europe 9-1 May 212 Batumi, Georgia UNWTO
million Tourism 22 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual 1995-21* 6 4 528 mn 881 mn 94 mn 2 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 23 A broad research project of long-term forecasting, following up on work initiated by UNWTO in the 199s Objectives: Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on future tourism development Reinforce UNWTO s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities Central to the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 21-23 Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 198-21 The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable. Two independent variables are used: 1) growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential; 2) cost of transport.
World
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 1 9 4 3 9 7 6 7 9 3 4 4 6 5 3 4 8 3 1 6 6 7 2 7 Average growth 21-23 3.3% a year 21-22 3.8% a year 22-23 2.9% a year -2-2 -4-4 -6 198/'79 1985/'84 199/'89 1995/'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World 8 6 4 2 8 4 25 13 1 3 27 22 28-2 39 15 21 2 33 26 16 22 49-1 2 7 International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 45 45 56 2 58 Average increase 21-23 43 million a year 21-22 42 mn a year 22-23 45 mn a year -2-11 -4 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23-35 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1.8 bn 1,75 1,5 1.4 bn 1,25 1 bn 1, 75 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 International Tourist Arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 (277 mn) Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 (94 mn) Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 (1.8 bn) Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%
No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, 9 Leisure, recreation and holidays 8 7 6 5 VFR, health, religion, other 4 3 2 1 Business and professional 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower pace International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, by air 75 over surface 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 1 9 8 7 within same region 6 5 4 3 between regions 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
What if assumptions change? Tourism Towards 23: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 Actual data 198-21 Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2) A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1) 1, 75 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 23 in one page Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (198 22) to 3.3% (21 23), as a result of four factors: The base volumes are higher, so smaller % increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Opportunities and challenges: how to make it possible Five key areas that mark the future: For many countries tourism represents a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned In order to tap into this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc. Enhance competitiveness by shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.
Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org