New Zealand Production and Export Trends Dave Harrison Regional Manager Europe Presentation to AHDB Beef and Lamb Conference 3 November 2015
OVERVIEW 1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand 2. New Zealand Farming Trends 3. New Zealand Sheepmeat Exports 4. New Zealand Beef Exports 5. Co-operation
BEEF + LAMB NEW ZEALAND Industry-good organisation, farmer-owned Funded by producer levies $NZ 25.5m in levies in 2014, plus $NZ 10.5m of other income Requires a referendum, last in September 2015 ~85% support per farm ~85% support by production
B+LNZ PROGRAMMES
OVERVIEW 1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand 2. New Zealand Farming Trends 3. New Zealand Sheepmeat Exports 4. New Zealand Beef Exports 5. Co-operation
NEW ZEALAND PRODUCTION SYSTEMS Average commercial farm has 2,800 sheep and 300 beef cattle (over winter) Reared outdoors on pasture free range Low input and unsubsidised Counter-seasonal
LIVESTOCK NUMBERS 1990/91 to 2014/15 70,000 60,000 % Change 1990-91 to 2014-15 Dairy +95% 7,000 6,000 Sheep (000) 50,000 40,000 Beef -20% 5,000 4,000 30,000 3,000 20,000 2,000 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 Cattle (000) Sheep -48% Source: B+LNZ Economic Service, Statistics New Zealand
SHEEP NUMBERS As at 30 June
THE DRIVE FOR EFFICIENCY 1990/91 57.9 million sheep 420,000 tonnes of sheepmeat exported 2014/15 28.6 million sheep 375,000 tonnes of sheepmeat exported Lambing %, carcase weights, hogget lambing
OVERVIEW 1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand 2. New Zealand Farming Trends 3. New Zealand Sheepmeat Exports 4. New Zealand Beef Exports 5. Co-operation
NEW ZEALAND SHEEPMEAT Season Exports Volume (tonnes) 450000 ~95% of Total Production is Exported 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(f) Lamb Mutton Source: B+LNZ Economic Service, Statistics New Zealand
NEW ZEALAND SHEEPMEAT Global Destinations (YE 30 Sept) 200,000 NZ LAMB EXPORTS (TONNES) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 European Union Middle East North America North Asia Other Source: B+LNZ Economic Service 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NEW ZEALAND SHEEPMEAT EU Destinations 2012-2015 (YE 30 Sept) Italy 2% Others 10% 2015 2012 Belgium 5% Netherlands 11% United Kingdom 48% 2013 France 9% Germany 15% Source: B+LNZ Economic Service 2014
NZ EXPORT MIX TO THE UK 1 Jan to 30 Sept (Tonnes carcase weight equivalent) 120,000 100,000 2015 % Change 80,000 Sheepmeat +6.4% 60,000 40,000 20,000 Frozen Lamb +10% Chilled Lamb -10% Mutton +51% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Frozen Lamb Chilled Lamb Mutton Sheepmeat Linear (Sheepmeat) Source: New Zealand Meat Board
CHILLED SHEEPMEAT EXPORTS TO EUROPE Percentage of Total Exports to Market (to August 2015) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU UK Source: New Zealand Meat Board
CHILLED LAMB EXPORTS TO UK BY MONTH Tonnes product weight 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 January February March April May June July August Source: Global Trade Atlas 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU SHEEPMEAT DEMAND ( 000 TONNES C.W.E) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Production Less Exports Consumption Source: European Commission
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 NZ Sheepmeat Production Lamb Exports down 6.3% to 293,000 tonnes Average value up 2.5% to NZ$8,661 / tonne Weaker NZ dollar Mutton Exports down 14.4% to 77,000 tonnes Flock rebuilding El Niño Cooler temperatures Wetter in West, drier in North and East
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 Sheepmeat Markets China Domestic production up (+2.5%) High prices and environmental factors Consumption up (+3.4%), but inventories high NZ exports likely to be similar to 2015 (-20% on 2014) Europe Flock increase in UK (??) Access issues for EU exports, and currency still a problem for intra-eu trade Uncertainty affects both GBP and EUR: Refugees, UK referendum NZ exports to EU unlikely to increase overall, but growth in some markets (e.g., Germany)
OVERVIEW 1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand 2. New Zealand Farming Trends 3. New Zealand Sheepmeat Exports 4. New Zealand Beef Exports 5. Co-operation
NEW ZEALAND BEEF Season Exports Volume (tonnes) 450000 ~80% of Total Production is Exported 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (f)
NEW ZEALAND BEEF Global Destinations (YE 30 Sept) 300,000 NZ BEEF EXPORTS (TONNES) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 European Union Middle East North America North Asia South Asia Other Source: B+LNZ Economic Service 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NEW ZEALAND BEEF EU Destinations 2012-2015 (YE 30 Sept) 2015 United Kingdom 15% 2012 Germany 9% 2013 Others 50% France 0% 2014 Netherlands 19% Source: B+LNZ Economic Service Italy 6% Belgium 1%
EU BEEF DEMAND ( 000 TONNES C.W.E) 8200 8000 7800 7600 7400 7200 7000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Production Less Exports Consumption Source: European Commission
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 NZ Beef Production Production to fall by 8.5% to 599,000 tonnes 2014/15 production unusually high due to dry summer and high beef prices cf. dairy prices Exports likely to be down 5.3% Average return up 11.5%, at NZ$8,143 / tonne Continued weakness of NZD v USD important here
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 Beef Markets US prices to come back from 2014 highs Domestic product coming back online in 2016 Record pork production expected (PEDv managed quicker than expected) In China demand growth to outstrip production growth Uncertain if Brazilian direct imports will add to, or replace, grey channel imports An overall increase in exports is expected to affect prices
OVERVIEW 1. Beef + Lamb New Zealand 2. New Zealand Farming Trends 3. New Zealand Sheepmeat Exports 4. New Zealand Beef Exports 5. Co-operation
CO-OPERATION Common Issues Environmental Impacts Product Environmental Footprint for Meat SAI Platform Beef Assessment LEAP Partnership Maintaining a strong sheep industry Ovinpiades/World Young Shepherds Sheepmeat Forum Leadership Visits
THANK YOU QUESTIONS?