Airbus Commercial Update Mark Pearman Wright Head of Leasing & Investor Marketing Indian Wells, 22 nd September
One year ago the world entered a severe recession
Downturn worse than predicted 15% 10% Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year) We are here 5% 0% Feb 2008 forecast Nov 2008 forecast -5% -10% Jan'09 Forecast Apr'09 Forecast Aug'09 Forecast Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus but rebound forecast for 2010
Downturn has bottomed out 15% 10% Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year) We are here 5% 0% World -5% -10% USA Western Europe Japan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus but rebound forecast for 2010
Downturn has bottomed out 15% 10% Real GDP evolution (% year-over-year) We are here 5% 0% -5% -10% World USA Western Europe Japan Emerging mkts China Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus It is a multi-speed world
Airbus backlog is well balanced North America 301 (9%) Europe 727 (20%) Middle East 490 (14%) China 408 (12%) Lessors 516 (15%) Corporate Jet 73 (2%) *Includes Indian sub-continent Data end August 2009 Latin America 195 (6%) Africa 80 (2%) Asia* / Pacific 705 (20%) 3500 aircraft (7 years of production) well distributed amongst developed and emerging markets
Airbus achievements in 2009 254 aircraft delivered in the first half of 2009 On-track to repeat 2008 deliveries of 483 aircraft and behind the scenes.. Successfully managing the order-book Not over-committing on financing
Air travel is resilient to shocks World annual traffic (RPK trillions) 12 ICAO total traffic 10 8 Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis WTC attack + SARS 6 4 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Source: ICAO, Airbus 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Air travel doubles every 15 years
Air travel is resilient to shocks World annual traffic (RPK trillions) 12 10 ICAO total traffic Airbus forecast 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2009 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air travel doubles every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
Air travel is a strong growth industry India China Central Europe Middle East CIS Africa Asia* Latin America * Asia excludes India & China Australasia Western Europe Japan North America Air transport is an still an emerging industry for 84% of the world
20-year demand for 25,000 aircraft 16,977 single aisles 39% of total value 6,245 twin aisles 42% of total value 1,729 very large aircraft 19% of total value Market value of $3.1 trillion
Growth generates fragmentation & consolidation FRAGMENTATION Hub by-passing Market development Frequency on thin routes CONSOLIDATION More cost-effective network Global network reach Linking major hubs The logic behind alliances
The question Airbus was asking in the mid-90 s The prototype 747-100 City of Everett Pictured at the Museum of Flight in Seattle an aircraft that is now regrettably a has-been. But so, history and time march forward. Chew Choon Seng CEO, SIA, 15 October 2007 The first commercial 747 was delivered on 13 th December 1969 How to compete with the 747.that had been in service for 25 years?
Creating the 21 st Century Flagship
Early involvement of key stakeholders Nearly 240 customer meetings prior to EIS
Airlines demanded a step change in productivity Relative to the 747-400 Payload 30-35% more passengers Range Plus Up to 1000 nm further A 50% productivity increase
costs, comfort, airport compatibility, the environment Deliver a double digit operating cost advantage Set new standards in cabin comfort and differentiation 80 m 80 ft 80 m Be compatible with existing airport infrastructure and equipment Meet all anticipated environmental constraints A new, high capacity aircraft offering a step change in efficiency, new comfort standards & sustainable growth
Overall concept established Classic configuration with double-deck most suitable
Sizing - fuselage length constraints 80m maximum length for all A380 family members agreed between airports and manufacturers in 1990s
A380 fuselage facts & figures A380-800 overall length 72.57 m Maximum seating Typical seating (3-class) 853 passenger seats 524 passenger seats Cabin width (upper deck) 5.80* m (6 ft** wider than 747) Cabin width (main deck) 6.52* m (1 ft** wider than 747) * Maximum internal width ** Eye (headrest) level
Sizing - fuselage door distribution constraints Maximum door spacing 18m Minimum door spacing 4.5m Spacing to flaps Spacing to engines Driven by certification requirements and emergency slide function in particular
A380 emergency evacuation test March 2006 The test is to determine maximum number of passengers and crew that can be evacuated from the aircraft in 90 seconds The test is conducted in darkness Only 50% of the available aircraft doors are used 853 passengers were successfully evacuated 20 crew successfully evacuated 78 seconds taken to evacuate all pax and crew
Sizing - wing design constraints & drivers wing span for low fuel consumption aerodynamics optimised to work in presence of large fuselage and Mach.85 cruise wing box chord for fuel volume minimum risk after engine rotor burst max. 80m span for airport compatibility wing area for low approach speed / noise keep-out zones for upper deck evacuation slides vs engine intake vs flap track fairings short centre box length for good cargo volume flap chord / span for simple, efficient high-lift system
Sizing - choice of wing span weight production cost overall efficiency 70m 75m 80m 85m Span limitation does not penalise efficiency aerodynamic drag take-off thrust noise wing span
A380 wing facts & figures Overall wingspan 79.75 m Wing surface area 845.8 m2 Fuel volume 84,535 USg Wing vertical flex during take-off 5.50 m (18 ft)
Industrial launch of the A380 19th December 2000 From A3XX to A380
The first A380 being built January 2002 First metal cut
A380 roll-out 18th January 2005
A380 first flight 27th April 2005 Flight duration Take-off Weight Maximum altitude Maximum speed 4 hrs 15 mins 420,000 kg 15,000 feet 250 kts Flight tests performed Opening the flight envelope Low speed in all configurations Handling Qualities in direct/normal laws Engine and system evaluation Chase aircraft Corvette
A380 flight test programme 5 flight test aircraft Over 5,000 flight hours and 1,477 flights (>3,800 take-offs)
Vmu (minimum un-stick speed) test July 2005 The test is to ascertain the minimum speed at which the aircraft can rotate, lift-off and achieve a positive climb gradient Min lift-off speed (at 440t TOW in conf 3) 132 kts Max lift-off angle (uncompressed gear) 12.7
Flutter test September 2005 The flutter test verifies that in all flight regimes, including high speed, the aircraft structure does not suffer from unstable oscillations that could result in structural failure A380 Vmo (Max Operating speed) 340 kts A380 Mmo (Max Mach Number) M 0.89 A380 Typical Cruise speed M 0.85 Speed achieved during flutter test M 0.96 375 kts
Cold weather trials February 2006 The trial is to demonstrate that even in extreme cold conditions, including cold soaking the aircraft on ground, the aircraft systems and engines function normally Minimum temp observed during trial Certificated minimum operating temp - 29 C degrees - 40 C degrees
Crosswind tests November 2006 The test is to check the maximum crosswind component that the aircraft can accommodate, maintain directional control and execute a normal landing Location Keflavik Runway orientation 02/20 Wind speed/direction observed 42 kts gusts to 56 kts at 290 Max crosswind component (recommended) 30 kts
First aircraft to be jointly certified by FAA and EASA 12th December 2006 Federal Aviation Administration European Aviation Safety Agency
An outstanding new aircraft All commitments met: Weight status Airfield performance Range & fuel burn Aircraft Handling Environmental performance Cabin comfort Jointly certificated by EASA and FAA
A380 - In commercial service for over 18 months The future has arrived 10 A380s in service 5 A380s in service The A380 has exceeded all expectations, delivered on its promise of reliability and fuel efficiency and is a favourite with customers 4 A380 in service Chew Choon Seng CEO Singapore Airlines
The A380 network is growing Over 68,000 revenue flight hours in over 7,100 revenue flights* * 02 Sep 2009 London Toronto New York Paris Rome Dubai Bangkok Seoul Tokyo Hong Kong Los Angeles Additional airline announced routes for 2009/10 shown dotted Singapore Melbourne Sydney It takes an A380 to compete with an A380 Auckland
A380 - the new flagship for international airlines 200 Top international airlines (International RPKs - millions) A380 customers 150 100 50 0 The top five international carriers are all A380 customers
Saving the planet 80 mpg per pax (current fleet average of 47 mpg per pax) Less than 75g of CO 2 per pax per km (EU car manufacturers target: 140 g per km in 2008) Reduced requirement for infrastructure spending Minimizing environmental impact through greater network efficiency (fewer flights, less noise, less pollution) A380 designed with the environment in mind
Air transport is vital to the modern world Last year world airlines carried more than 2.2 billion passengers 40% in value of interregional export of good are carried by air Air transport generates 50 million jobs & $3 600 billion worldwide It contributes for 8% to the world GDP 3% of global man-made CO2 emissions Airbus leading the industry in eco-efficiency Source: Oxford Economics June 2009
Airbus N e w s t a n d a r d s. T o g e t h e r
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