Intercommunity Passenger Transportation

DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER Northern Ontario Multimodal Transportation Strategy Intercommunity Passenger Transportation Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines Consulting Team: IBI Group Hemson Consulting Ltd. November 2016

This draft technical backgrounder was prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines by the consultant team to assist the ministries in developing the Northern Ontario Multimodal Transportation Strategy. The opinions and ideas in this backgrounder are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the ministries or of the Government of Ontario. Cette publication hautement spécialisée Intercommunity Passenger Transportation Technical Backgrounder n'est disponible qu'en anglais conformément au Règlement 671/92, selon lequel il n est pas obligatoire de la traduire en vertu de la Loi sur les services en français. Pour obtenir des renseignements en français, veuillez communiquer avec le Ministère des Transports au 1-844-505-5006 ou par courriel à contact@nomts.ca. November 2016

Table of Contents 1 Overview... 1 2 Jurisdiction, Policies and Programs... 8 2.1 Passenger Rail... 8 VIA Rail... 8 Ontario Northland Transportation Commission... 8 Agawa Canyon Excursion Train... 8 2.2 Intercommunity Bus... 9 Provincial Role... 9 2.3 Community Transportation Services... 11 Provincial Community Transportation Pilot Grant Program... 12 2.4 Climate Change Considerations... 13 3 Potential Intercommunity Passenger Transportation Ridership Markets... 16 3.1 Passenger Vehicle Traffic... 16 3.2 Travel Grant Origins and Destinations... 20 3.3 Locations of Common Intercommunity Transportation Destinations 25 4 Rail Passenger Services... 27 4.1 Current Service Provision and Ridership... 27 The VIA Transcontinental Train ( The Canadian )... 27 The Northern Ontario VIA Train... 28 The Polar Bear Express... 28 4.2 Recent Rail Service Changes and Discontinuances... 28 VIA Rail... 28 Ontario Northland Services... 31 Algoma Central Rail Services... 31 4.3 Past Trends in Passenger Rail Ridership... 32 November 2016 i

Table of Contents (continued) 5 Intercommunity Bus Services... 34 5.1 Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Operators and Services... 34 Inter-Regional Operators... 35 Regional Operators... 36 Fares 37 5.2 Recent Scheduled Service Reductions and Discontinuances... 38 5.3 Ridership on Scheduled Services... 41 Travel Purposes... 41 5.4 Bus Stops and Terminals... 42 5.5 Vehicle Types... 42 5.6 Charter Bus Services... 43 6 Community Transportation Services... 44 6.1 Sample Community-Based Services... 44 6.2 Issues and Challenges... 46 7 Outlooks for Intercommunity Passenger Transportation in Northern Ontario... 47 7.1 Population Forecasts... 47 7.2 Passenger Rail... 47 7.3 Intercommunity Bus... 48 7.4 Community Services... 49 8 Issues and Opportunities... 50 8.1 Intercommunity Passenger Transportation General... 50 8.2 Rail Passenger Services... 51 Issues 51 Opportunities... 52 8.3 Intercommunity Bus... 53 Issues 53 Opportunities... 56 8.4 Community Transportation Services... 57 Issues 57 Opportunities... 57 November 2016 ii

Table of Contents (continued) References... 59 Alternate Text for Exhibits... 60 Appendix A: List of Community Transportation Services... 1 Northwestern Ontario... 1 Northeastern Ontario... 3 List of Exhibits Exhibit 1.1: Passenger Rail Services in Northern Ontario... 3 Exhibit 1.2: Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Service in Northern Ontario... 4 Exhibit 1.3: Summary of Scheduled Commercial Intercommunity Bus Service in Northern Ontario... 5 Exhibit 1.4: Scheduled Air Passenger Services in Northern Ontario... 7 Exhibit 2.1: Indicative Comparison of Energy Use per Passenger- Kilometre by Travel Mode... 14 Exhibit 2.2: Indicative Comparison of Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Passenger-Kilometre by Travel Mode... 14 Exhibit 3.1: Flows of Passenger Vehicles using the Northern Ontario Highway Network, 2011 and 2041... 18 Exhibit 3.2: Travel Grant Recipient Home Community/Municipality Locations, March 2014 to April 2015... 21 Exhibit 3.3: Travel Grant Recipient Service Locations, March 2014 to April 2015... 22 Exhibit 3.4: Northern Ontario Travel Grant Service Locations by Recipient Home Location, March 2014 to April 2015... 23 Exhibit 3.5: Percentages of Northern Ontario Travel Grant Recipients by Service Location: March 2014 to April 2015... 24 Exhibit 3.6: Bus and Taxi Connections to Post-Secondary Institutions and Health Care Services... 26 November 2016 iii

Table of Contents (continued) Exhibit 4.1: VIA Rail Boardings by Station for The Canadian Transcontinental Line by Destination Zone, 2015... 29 Exhibit 4.2: VIA Rail Boardings by Station for Northern Ontario Line, 2015... 30 Exhibit 4.3: VIA The Canadian Trips to/from Northern Ontario, 2009 2015... 33 Exhibit 4.4: VIA "Northern Ontario" Boardings, 2009 2015... 33 Exhibit 5.1: Adult Fare Comparison for Selected Origin-Destination Pairs by Mode... 37 Exhibit 5.2: Northern Ontario Bus Service Levels, 2000 and 2016... 39 Exhibit 5.3: Recent Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Service Reductions and Discontinuances... 40 Exhibit 5.4: Traditional Full-Size Coach Example: Ontario Northland... 43 Exhibit 8.1: Communities by Select Highway Corridor without Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Service... 55 November 2016 iv

1 Overview In Northern Ontario, as in other jurisdictions, a viable network of intercommunity passenger transportation options is an essential piece of the multimodal system. It is, in fact, vital to the wellbeing of many individuals. Many residents in communities of all sizes are dependent upon intercommunity transportation services to access essential services and social activities located in larger centres. Intercommunity passenger transportation also provides an option that is potentially safer, more convenient, more economical, and more environmentally sustainable than driving a personal vehicle between communities. However, providing intercommunity transportation in Northern Ontario is especially challenging, given the long distances, severe weather conditions, low population densities and the need for enhanced coordination among providers. The purpose of this backgrounder is to describe intercommunity ground passenger services that are available in Northern Ontario, including existing conditions and historic trends, outlooks, issues and opportunities. The term intercommunity is used to mean travel between cities, municipalities, or settlements of varying sizes. Intercommunity passenger transportation in Northern Ontario includes four primary types: Rail passenger services: These rail transportation services provided to the public for travel along a rail line between rail stations for a fare. A map of Northern Ontario rail passenger services indicating service frequencies is shown as Exhibit 1.1. Commercial intercommunity bus services: These are public services provided by commercial carriers along a defined route between cities and communities for a fare. A map of Northern Ontario bus passenger services is shown as Community transportation services: These are transportation services that are often provided on a smaller scale (e.g. by van) and cover shorter distances than commercial intercommunity bus services, and often rely on volunteer staff. They are typically not fully public, but targeted to a certain market, such as health-care trips, seniors or Indigenous groups. A listing of over 150 services of this type in Northern Ontario is provided in Appendix A. Scheduled air passenger travel: Where available, scheduled air passenger services between Northern Ontario s 67 public national, November 2016 1

municipal, and remote airports are in competition with available ground-based intercommunity passenger transportation. This is especially true as lower-cost carriers have expanded their services in Northern Ontario. Some communities have neither ground-based scheduled service nor scheduled air transportation services (e.g. Chapleau and Manitoulin); many communities with municipal airports have both ground and air transportation services, and some have only one or the other (e.g. Red Lake has scheduled air transportation, but no scheduled ground-based transportation). Scheduled passenger flights in Northern Ontario are shown in Exhibit 1.4 for context and for comparison to ground intercommunity transportation options. Air passenger services are described in detail in separate Municipal Airports and Remote Airports technical backgrounders. In addition to the above, a number of small-scale solutions are used to transport individuals and groups between communities, including carpooling and taxis. November 2016 2

Exhibit 1.1: Passenger Rail Services in Northern Ontario Note: Sault Ste.-Marie Agawa Canyon service is offered seasonally as well. Services are current as of August 2016 November 2016 3

Exhibit 1.2: Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Service in Northern Ontario Note: Schedules can change on a regular basis. Effective August 17, 2016, Caribou Coach temporarily suspended scheduled service between Thunder Bay and Longlac. November 2016 4

Exhibit 1.3: Summary of Scheduled Commercial Intercommunity Bus Service in Northern Ontario Service Approx. Adult Fare, Full Trip Frequency per Direction Route Operation Notes Fare Notes Greyhound Canada Sudbury-Winnipeg $240 1/day Hwy 17 Reservation-based system Senior, student and child fares Toronto-Sudbury $80 9/week Hwy 400, Hwy 69 Ottawa-Sudbury $80 1/day Hwy 17 Two trips on Fri/Sun; no local stops Ontario Northland Toronto-North Bay $80 4/day Hwy 11 One express trip, extra express trips on Fri/Sun North Bay-Matheson $70 2/day Hwy 11 Matheson-Cochrane $20 1/day Hwy 11 Matheson-Timmins $15 3/day Hwy 101 Toronto-Sudbury $80 3/day Hwy 400, Hwy One express trip 69 Sudbury-Timmins $60 1/day Hwy 144, Hwy 101 Timmins-Cochrane $20 2/day Hwy 655 No local stops Cochrane- $25 1/day Hwy 11 Kapuskasing Kapuskasing-Hearst $20 3/week Hwy 11 Mon/Wed/Fri Sudbury-North Bay $28 6/week Hwy 17 Mon/Thu/Fri/Sat/Sun North Bay-Sudbury $100 3/week Hwy 17 Thu/Fri/Sun Autobus Maheux North Bay-Rouyn- Noranda Continued on next page. Discounts: advance-purchase, web, group rates Refundable fares Other adult fares: $250 Toronto-Winnipeg $250 Ottawa-Winnipeg Reservation-based system Senior, student and child fares Discounts: advance-purchase, group, military, family and medical rates Refundable fares Other adult fares: $140 Toronto-Timmins $200 Toronto-Hearst $65 1/day Hwy 63, QC 101 Fixed-price fares Discounts: return trips $130 November 2016 5

Exhibit 1.3: Summary of Scheduled Commercial Intercommunity Bus Service in Northern Ontario (continued) Service Caribou Coach Lines Thunder Bay-Fort Frances Thunder Bay-Longlac ( Temporarily suspended as of August 17, 2016) Kasper Thunder Bay-Sioux Lookout Thunder Bay Longlac Approx. Adult Fare, Full Trip Frequency per Direction Route Operation Notes Fare Notes $65 3/week Hwy 11 Tue/Fri/Sun Fixed-price fares $60 5/week Hwy 11 East: Sun/Tue/Wed/Thu/Fri West: Mon/Wed/Thu/Fri/Sat Senior, student and child fares Discounts: advance-purchase, group, military, family and medical rates $75 5/week Hwy 17, Hwy 72 Mon-Fri Fixed-price fares Discounts: return trips $130 $65 5/week Hwy 11 Mon-Fri Fixed-price fares A.J. Bus Lines (Public: contracted by the City of Elliot Lake) Elliot Lake-Hwy 17 $20 7/week Hwy 108 Mon-Thu, twice Friday, Sun Note: Schedules can change on a regular basis. Fixed-price fares November 2016 6

Exhibit 1.4: Scheduled Air Passenger Services in Northern Ontario Note: Services are current as of October 2016 November 2016 7

2 Jurisdiction, Policies and Programs This section describes the governmental roles, policies and programs as they relate to intercommunity passenger transportation in Northern Ontario, by mode. 2.1 Passenger Rail VIA Rail Under the Canadian Constitution, interprovincial railways fall under federal jurisdiction. The major railways, including Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) hold federal charters. A federal corporation, VIA Rail Canada Inc., operates most passenger services across Canada and two services in Northern Ontario on CN and CP railways. VIA receives subsidies for operating rail passenger services through Transport Canada. It reports to the federal Minister of Transport. Transport Canada is responsible for safety standards, equipment inspection, and railway operating practices. Through delegation of the provincial jurisdiction, even shortline railways operating under provincial charters licensed under the Ontario Shortline Railways Act are overseen by Transport Canada with respect to safety. Ontario Northland Transportation Commission The Ontario Northland Transportation Commission (ONTC, or Ontario Northland), a Crown agency of the Government of Ontario, operates a combined rail freight and passenger rail service under the ONTC Act, a provincial charter. This service is supported by the Ontario Government through the ONTC and the Ministry of Northern Development and Mines. Agawa Canyon Excursion Train An additional rail service is not shown on the map, as it only operates seasonally: the Agawa Canyon Tour Train, operated by CN on the CN rail line between Sault Ste. Marie and Hearst. The tour train runs from Sault Ste. Marie 183 km north to the Agawa Canyon and is a same-day, round-trip excursion to November 2016 8

the canyon. (Year-round passenger services had been provided on this line as far north as Hearst until 2015, as will be discussed in Section 4.2.) 2.2 Intercommunity Bus Provincial Role ONTC also operates Ontario Northland motor coach services (or Ontario Northland ), connecting a number of communities in Northeastern Ontario and providing connections to Southern Ontario. With the exception of ONTC, intercommunity bus service in Northern Ontario is provided by private businesses and regulated by the Ontario and federal governments, as described below. Few governmental programs are directly applicable to the intercommunity bus mode. Currently, the intercommunity bus services in Ontario are regulated through the Ontario Highway Transport Board (OHTB), whose mandate is defined in the Ontario Highway Transport Board Act, 1990, and who reports to the Minister of Transportation (MTO). The OHTB administers the economic regulatory regime for inter-municipal, for-hire operators of passenger transportation services, as prescribed in the Public Vehicles Act, 1990. The OHTB is responsible for licensing operators throughout the province as well as operators providing services that extend beyond Ontario to other provinces and the United States. The OHTB also oversees market entry control for scheduled and charter services. ONTC is exempt from the licensing requirements of the Public Vehicles Act (Metrolinx has a similar exemption for its services in Southern Ontario. The OHTB controls operators entering the market through the granting of operating licences. A prospective bus operator may apply for an operating licence for a given route by filing an application with the OHTB, including a business plan for the service and public evidence supporting the entrant. After the application is submitted, it is published in the Ontario Gazette (the official Government of Ontario publication for public notices). If no objection is filed against the applicant, the OHTB reviews the application, completes a one-time insurance check and finally issues a public vehicle licence. Other parties with an economic interest in the outcome of the matter may file an objection within 29 days of publication in the Ontario Gazette. The applicant is given an opportunity to reply to the objection. A hearing may be held on filed objections, after which the Board may deny or grant the application, following an insurance check. The Board adjudicates matters and assesses applications based on public necessity November 2016 9

and convenience criteria. The decision of the Board is final and binding; there is no appeal. Operators providing scheduled services are required to file a timetable with the OHTB detailing the number of trips per day including the departure and arrival times, as well as fares. Service reductions of more than 25% require a 30-day notice to both the Minister of Transportation and the public. Service discontinuation requires a 90-day notice period. Any subsequent changes to timetables and fare structures must also be filed with the Board. Fares and schedule changes are not regulated by the OHTB, thereby permitting operators to adjust fares and schedule timing without approval from the Board. Intercommunity Bus Policy Proposal MTO is currently conducting a review of its intercommunity bus policy to appropriately regulate intercommunity bus transportation and modernize regulations to increase travel options and to improve the overall travelling experience on intercommunity buses in Ontario. The process has included several rounds of engagement with the public and industry stakeholders on the current state of intercommunity bus as well as potential needs and opportunities. Results to date are summarized in a discussion paper published in June 2016, Intercity Bus Modernization: Creating Opportunities and Connecting Ontario Communities. Community engagement sessions took place through the summer months in 2016 and separate engagement sessions with Indigenous partners are planned for October/November 2016. Input received through engagement with the intercommunity bus industry and communities will inform the development of recommendations for an improved intercommunity transportation regime expected in the fall. Federal Role Federal regulations related to the intercommunity bus industry are primarily safety-related, with the Motor Vehicle Transport Act (MVTA) providing a framework for safety regulations based on the National Safety Code for Motor Carriers. Transport Canada has also issued an Intercity Bus Code of Practice. Operators have voluntarily committed to providing accessible service, and the standards of service are documented in the Code. The Code of Practice covers all routes by carriers offering scheduled services, but not charter carriers. It is important to note that this Code of Practice is not legally binding. November 2016 10

The federal government is responsible for extra-provincial bus services. The federal government, through provisions in the MVTA, adopts the licensing regime in each individual province, to be applied in like manner to applications for bus services that go beyond a provincial boundary. For example, the Ontario portion of an application for a scheduled service between Kenora and Winnipeg would be considered based on Ontario s regime, while the Manitoba portion would be considered based on Manitoba s regime. 2.3 Community Transportation Services As a result of the limited provision of scheduled intercommunity passenger services in Northern Ontario, other means of mobility have been developed to provide transportation for people who cannot make the trip by private automobile for a variety of reasons. These services tend to be very targeted to certain clients, patients, or some other pre-defined, eligible person affiliated with a specific program or organization, including several dozen providing services for Indigenous populations. These are most notable in the non-urgent medical transport field where various services (and subsidies) are available. In addition to medical/health related access, many community transportation programs provide client or program participant transportation for a range of trip purposes, including social/ recreational, shopping, etc. There is a range of governance, administrative, operational and service delivery scenarios for these non-public transit transportation service providers. These include transportation operated by volunteer organizations such as the Red Cross and the Canadian Cancer Society, municipal transit/specialized transit services, school/student transport, hospitals/medical centre non-emergency transport, and services by First Nations or by Indigenous agencies. With the exception of school bus transport such as that provided by the Northwestern Ontario Student Services Consortium, no other community transportation services that accommodates education or school trips has been identified. Transportation funding for these services can include user fees/fares, subsidies from program budgets (typically general funds), and donations. In some cases, government aid is supplied, such as through the Community Care Access Centres (CCAC). November 2016 11

Provincial Community Transportation Pilot Grant Program In 2014, the Ministry of Transportation launched a two-year Community Transportation Pilot Grant Program. The objective of the Pilot is to improve transportation services for seniors, persons living with disabilities, youth and other residents who need transportation. Through the Pilot Program, up to $100,000 in financial assistance has been provided to Ontario municipalities and their partnering community organizations to leverage existing local transportation services by sharing resources and coordinating services. Of the twenty-two municipalities that have received funding under this program, seven projects are located in the NOMTS study area: Terrace Bay ($81,397) Atikokan ($91,586) Dryden ($100,000) Black River-Matheson ($30,500) Papineau-Cameron ($100,000) Temiskaming Shores ($40,000) White River ($81,650) The two-year pilot program allows funded municipalities flexibility in designing community transportation service and the area to be served. Eligible projects include providing transportation services within a single municipality/county/region, or between municipalities, such as those listed below. Some community transportation projects that are being implemented also include same-day intercommunity bus service (via bus or van), for example: Terrace Bay is providing services for residents in five communities between Jackfish and Pays Plat First Nation to travel along Highway 17 to Thunder Bay for medical appointments. Black River-Matheson is providing a new service using school buses to transport seniors from Black River-Matheson to Timmins and Iroquois Falls for medical appointments, shopping, and visiting friends and relatives. Papineau-Cameron has established a transportation program connecting eight municipalities in the Highway 17 corridor between Mattawa and North Bay, using a school bus operator and a centralized intake, booking, and scheduling process. The Pilot Program is scheduled to end on March 31, 2017, after which the Ministry of Transportation will evaluate the projects to determine the November 2016 12

effectiveness of municipalities and partnering community organizations to work together to optimize existing resources and provide more travel options to more people, thereby improving service. At this time, the Ministry of Transportation will also review the key elements of the design and implementation of the program such as eligibility requirements and scope of projects (i.e., eligibility for First Nations, not-for-profit organizations, and others in unincorporated areas). The current two-year pilot program will be completed in the spring of 2017. A final report will include recommendations as to whether to continue the program. The pilot program involved partnerships with private sector bus companies. 2.4 Climate Change Considerations Climate change, energy efficiency, and other environmental concerns are of interest to all levels of government, including related considerations with respect to intercommunity passenger transportation, and the potential for these modes to reduce energy use and emissions. As the leading sector in emissions, reducing emissions due to transportation is an action area identified in Ontario s Climate Change Action Plan. Exhibit 2.1 and Exhibit 2.2 show indicative energy use and carbon dioxide emissions by passenger-kilometre for travel by private car (including 1 person and 2 persons per car), domestic air travel, diesel powered intercity rail, and motor coach. These figures are based on the averages for a wide sample of companies in the United States, as summarized for the American Bus Association (MJ Bradley & Associates, 2014). For private cars, the plots include figures for average (US fleet average fuel economy), low (reflecting use of a hybrid car), and high (reflecting use of a typical SUV-style vehicle). Note that domestic air, intercity rail and motor coach are industry averages only and results can vary greatly based on changes in passenger loading and operating conditions. For example, running a train at half of the typical loading doubles the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions per passenger-kilometre. November 2016 13

Exhibit 2.1: Indicative Comparison of Energy Use per Passenger-Kilometre by Travel Mode Source: IBI Group analysis of data summarized by MJ Bradley & Associates for the American Bus Association (2007). Note that domestic air, intercity rail and motor coach are industry averages only and results can vary greatly based on changes in passenger loading and operating conditions. Exhibit 2.2: Indicative Comparison of Carbon Dioxide-Equivalent Emissions per Passenger-Kilometre by Travel Mode Source: IBI Group analysis of data summarized by MJ Bradley & Associates for the American Bus Association (2007). Note that domestic air, intercity rail and motor coach are industry averages only and results can vary greatly based on changes in passenger loading and operating conditions. November 2016 14

The following can be noted from these figures: Motorcoach, at typical passenger loads, is generally the most fuel efficient and has the least emissions of all the modes of travel, followed by diesel-powered intercity rail. Very low passenger loads can greatly increase the fuel use and emissions for these modes. Having two or more people share a ride in a private vehicle for an intercommunity trip can result in a trip that has approximately the same energy use and emissions as a public transportation mode, especially with ongoing improvements in fuel efficiency and emissions reductions in the vehicle fleet. Air travel results in greater fuel use and emissions than intercity rail and motorcoach modes. The figure shown is for domestic air travel, which typically is more efficient than international travel through the use of smaller planes and because they need to carry smaller fuel loads than long-distance international flights do. Fuel efficiency and emissions for air travel are reduced when there is an increased number of take offs and landings along the route. While the air travel energy use and emissions may not be much greater on a per-kilometre basis than other passenger travel modes according to the figures in the charts, the cumulative environmental impact on each trip is greater. Air travel can make long-distance travel much easier and quicker than ground-related travel and can induce additional long-distance trips to be made; the greater total distance of travel can result in greater total emissions. November 2016 15

3 Potential Intercommunity Passenger Transportation Ridership Markets To gain a broad understanding of the potential ridership market for intercommunity passenger transportation that could potentially be filled by any passenger mode as available, the following highlights are discussed in this section: passenger vehicle (i.e. automobiles, light-duty trucks and motorcycles) traffic flows in Northern Ontario; health-care trips as an example of essential travel required by residents of Northern Ontario; and more broadly, the locations of health care services and postsecondary institutions in Northern Ontario, as trips to these are generally the main markets served by intercommunity bus transportation. Typically, intercommunity passenger transportation ridership figures by private carrier are not readily available; however, VIA rail ridership is discussed in Section 4. 3.1 Passenger Vehicle Traffic Exhibit 3.1 shows passenger-vehicle (i.e. automobiles, light-duty trucks and motorcycles) traffic volumes on the Northern Ontario highway network, showing 2011 passenger-vehicle traffic levels and anticipated levels in 2041. This plot is based on assigning NOMTS Part 1 survey origin-destination data collected at select locations such as Northern Ontario gateways to the road network, in combination with traffic classification count data throughout the Northern Ontario highway network. (The survey data, assignments, and traffic forecasting methodology are described more fully in the Highways and Roads technical backgrounder). Note that in this plot, traffic flows continuing beyond Northern Ontario represent only the continuation of trips using the Northern Ontario highway network., as opposed to total flows. The potential intercommunity passenger transportation market for travel along a corridor is generally proportional to the passenger vehicle flows along the corridor. Using existing passenger vehicle flows as an indicator of potential November 2016 16

intercommunity transportation demand is common practice in transit planning. Higher passenger vehicle traffic levels along a corridor indicate a potentially greater market for passenger transportation services along that corridor. November 2016 17

Exhibit 3.1: Flows of Passenger Vehicles using the Northern Ontario Highway Network, 2011 and 2041 November 2016 18

As can be seen in the exhibit, some of the highest passenger volumes are on highway links connecting North Bay and Sudbury southerly toward Toronto (approximately 6,000 to 9,000 average daily passenger vehicles, with higher flows in the summer months). As could be noted from Exhibit 1.1 and Exhibit 1.2 and will be discussed later in this document, these Northern-Southern Ontario corridors are served as follows: Sudbury and Toronto are connected by VIA Rail, as well as Greyhound, and Ontario Northland bus services, and North Bay and Toronto are connected by Ontario Northland bus services. Close in magnitude to these Northern-Southern Ontario flows are flows along Highway 17 between the Sudbury area and North Bay. The majority of the Highway 17 corridor in Northern Ontario is served only by a once-daily Greyhound route that runs between Sudbury and North Bay easterly only in the overnight period, but westbound in daytime hours. In response to Greyhound s service frequency reduction in late 2015 resulting in this once-daily service only, ONTC added 6 times weekly service between Sudbury and North Bay in January 2016, with 3 of these trips continuing between North Bay and Ottawa. This additional service helps meet the apparent demand between two these Northern urban centres, as indicated by the levels of passenger vehicle flows on Highway 17 between them. This new ONTC service is weekendfocused, with no service between Sudbury and Ottawa on Tuesdays or Wednesdays except for the daily Greyhound service. Similarly, travel demand between Manitoulin and Sudbury, two areas not currently connected by intercommunity bus transportation but with moderate passenger vehicle travel flows between them, could also support intercommunity bus service if service were to be provided. Another section of Highway 17 with higher passenger vehicle volumes but also only serviced by the once-daily Greyhound service is the section between the Ontario-Manitoba border and Dryden, and service in the eastbound direction is only provided during the overnight hours in this section. Passenger-vehicle flows in the Kenora area are more oriented toward Winnipeg as the closest regional urban centre, and many residents of the area travel to Winnipeg for health care and other services. There are moderate passenger vehicle flows between Thunder Bay and the Nipigon area on Highway 11&17. This corridor is served by Greyhound bus, by Kasper Minibus and by Caribou Coach (though Caribou Coach service is temporarily suspended as of August 2016). The latter two continue easterly on Highway 11 toward Geraldton. Beyond Geraldton easterly on Highway 11, passenger vehicle flows are markedly low until east of Highway 631 approaching Hearst. Highway 11 between Geraldton and Hearst is a challenge November 2016 19

for bus operators to service due to the low volumes, as well as a lack of cell phone coverage in the event of emergencies. 3.2 Travel Grant Origins and Destinations The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care provided summarized information relating to recipients of travel grants through the Northern Health Travel Grants program for a one-year period, between April 2014 to March 2015, including patient place of residence and service provision. To qualify, grant recipients must travel at least 100 km one-way to access a medical specialist or approved health care facility services that are not available locally. Exhibit 3.2 is a map of home community/municipality locations for patients receiving a travel grant, and also includes companions and third-party travellers (e.g. an adult accompanying a patient under 16 years of age parent accompanying their child, or a third-party organization that receives the grant on the patient s behalf). Similarly, Exhibit 3.3 is a plot of the service locations for the grant recipients, their companions, and third-party travellers (the two exhibits use different scales to depict relative volumes). Companions and third-party travellers are more commonly part of longer-distance travel, such as to specialty care in Toronto. The longer-distance health care trips tend to originate within the larger Northern Ontario urban centres. The plots indicate that residents in communities of various sizes along the provincial highway network, generally along the Trans-Canada highway, have a need to travel to the larger urban centres for health care. A few sizable patient origin locations that are not on the Trans-Canada highway include Timmins, Red Lake at the north end of Highway 105, Chapleau on Highway 101 west of Timmins, and Manitouwadge north of Marathon. Exhibit 3.4 is a table summarizing the number of patients, the grant recipients home location and service locations, while Exhibit 3.5 shows this information by percentage of patients. A few observations are noted: Sudbury is the most common health care service location for Northern Ontario under the travel grant program for the 2014 15 year; it is the service provision location for 28% of Northern Ontario health care travel grants, or 55,000 patients. However, Sudbury is the focus of travel grants to recipients in Northeastern Ontario only, as patients in Northwestern Ontario travel to Thunder Bay as well as to Winnipeg for health care services under this grant program. Timmins, Sault Ste. Marie and North Bay are also significant centres for health care services in Northeastern Ontario. November 2016 20

Exhibit 3.2: Travel Grant Recipient Home Community/Municipality Locations, March 2014 to April 2015 November 2016 21

Exhibit 3.3: Travel Grant Recipient Service Locations, March 2014 to April 2015 November 2016 22

Exhibit 3.4: Northern Ontario Travel Grant Service Locations by Recipient Home Location, March 2014 to April 2015 Service Location Kenora Rainy River GRANT RECIPIENT HOME DISTRICT: NUMBER OF PATIENTS Thunder Bay Cochrane Other Canada Manitoba Winnipeg 11,819 3,294 730 - - - 1 - - - - 15,844 Northern Ontario Kenora Kenora 1,082 271 - - - - - - - - - 1,353 Dryden 1,203 146 73 - - - - - - - - 1,422 Sioux Lookout 791-38 - - - - - - - - 829 Rainy River Fort Frances 19 235 82 - - - - - - - - 336 Thunder Bay Thunder Bay 7,247 7,502 18,669 657 486 12 2 - - - - 34,575 Terrace Bay - - 12 - - - - - - - - 12 Marathon - - - - 6 - - - - - - 6 Manitouwadge - - - - 22 - - - - - - 22 Algoma Wawa - - - - 37 57 - - - - - 94 Sault Ste. Marie - 9 445 38 10,848 555 80 121-8 - 12,104 Blind River - - - - - - 3 - - - - 3 Elliot Lake - - - - 48-9 11 - - - 68 Cochrane Hearst - - 42 33 79 - - - - - - 154 Kapuskasing - - - 74 73-1 - - - - 148 Cochrane - - - 320-15 1-158 - - 494 Iroquois Falls - - - - - - - - 6 - - 6 Timmins 6-30 12,652 193 2,631 32-4,408 27-19,979 South Porcupine - - - - - - - - 11 - - 11 Sudbury Chapleau - - - - 48 7 - - - - - 55 Espanola - - - - 79 - - 262 - - - 341 Greater Sudbury Sudbury 13-105 10,299 12,556 3,650-10,450 5,614 8,202 4,498 55,387 Manitoulin Mindemoya - - - - - - - 29 - - - 29 Little Current - - - - - - - 175 - - - 175 Timiskaming Kirkland Lake - - - 635-10 - - 69 10-724 New Liskeard - - - 14 - - 7-222 6-249 Nipissing Sturgeon Falls - - - - - 7 1-6 - - 14 North Bay - - 10 1,137 57 124 611 22 5,984 120 640 8,705 Parry Sound Parry Sound - - - 8 15 119 233 60-16 107 558 Southern Ontario GTA and Hamilton Toronto, etc. 252 150 3,336 4,053 3,930 911 6,758 573 1,741 5,082 3,873 30,659 Central Ontario Barrie, Orillia, etc. - - 11 66 91 111 1,018 59 282 1,670 4,488 7,796 SW Ontario London, etc. 26 23 434 301 942 67 321 62 83 370 139 2,768 Eastern Ontario Ottawa, etc. 20 18 269 1,538 318 144 1,017 63 566 1,823 204 5,980 Total All Service Locations 22,478 11,648 24,286 31,825 29,828 8,420 10,095 11,887 19,150 17,334 13,949 200,900 Algoma Sudbury Greater Sudbury Manitoulin Timiskaming Nipissing Parry Sound Total Visits November 2016 23

Exhibit 3.5: Percentages of Northern Ontario Travel Grant Recipients by Service Location: March 2014 to April 2015 Service Location Kenora GRANT RECIPIENT HOME DISTRICT: PROPORTION OF PATIENTS (%) BY HOME DISTRICT Rainy River Thunder Bay Cochrane Other Canada Manitoba Winnipeg 52.6 28.3 3.0 - - - 0.0 - - - - 7.9 Northern Ontario Kenora Kenora 4.8 2.3 - - - - - - - - - 0.7 Dryden 5.4 1.3 0.3 - - - - - - - - 0.7 Sioux Lookout 3.5-0.2 - - - - - - - - 0.4 Rainy River Fort Frances 0.1 2.0 0.3 - - - - - - - - 0.2 Thunder Bay Thunder Bay 32.2 64.4 76.9 2.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 - - - - 17.2 Terrace Bay - - 0.0 - - - - - - - - 0.0 Marathon - - - - 0.0 - - - - - - 0.0 Manitouwadge - - - - 0.1 - - - - - - 0.0 Algoma Wawa - - - - 0.1 0.7 - - - - - 0.0 Sault Ste. Marie - 0.1 1.8 0.1 36.4 6.6 0.8 1.0-0.0-6.0 Blind River - - - - - - 0.0 - - - - 0.0 Elliot Lake - - - - 0.2-0.1 0.1 - - - 0.0 Cochrane Hearst - - 0.2 0.1 0.3 - - - - - - 0.1 Kapuskasing - - - 0.2 0.2-0.0 - - - - 0.1 Cochrane - - - 1.0-0.2 0.0-0.8 - - 0.2 Iroquois Falls - - - - - - - - 0.0 - - 0.0 Timmins 0.0-0.1 39.8 0.6 31.2 0.3-23.0 0.2-9.9 South Porcupine - - - - - - - - 0.1 - - 0.0 Sudbury Chapleau - - - - 0.2 0.1 - - - - - 0.0 Espanola - - - - 0.3 - - 2.2 - - - 0.2 Greater Sudbury Sudbury 0.1-0.4 32.4 42.1 43.3-87.9 29.3 47.3 32.2 27.6 Manitoulin Mindemoya - - - - - - - 0.2 - - - 0.0 Little Current - - - - - - - 1.5 - - - 0.1 Timiskaming Kirkland Lake - - - 2.0-0.1 - - 0.4 0.1-0.4 New Liskeard - - - 0.0 - - 0.1-1.2 0.0-0.1 Nipissing Sturgeon Falls - - - - - 0.1 0.0-0.0 - - 0.0 North Bay - - 0.0 3.6 0.2 1.5 6.1 0.2 31.2 0.7 4.6 4.3 Parry Sound Parry Sound - - - 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.5-0.1 0.8 0.3 Southern Ontario GTA, Hamilton Toronto, etc. 1.1 1.3 13.7 12.7 13.2 10.8 66.9 4.8 9.1 29.3 27.8 15.3 Central Ontario Barrie, Orillia, etc. - - 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 10.1 0.5 1.5 9.6 32.2 3.9 SW Ontario London, etc. 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.9 3.2 0.8 3.2 0.5 0.4 2.1 1.0 1.4 Eastern Ontario Ottawa, etc. 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.8 1.1 1.7 10.1 0.5 3.0 10.5 1.5 3.0 Total All Service Locations 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Algoma Sudbury Greater Sudbury Manitoulin Timiskaming Nipissing Parry Sound Total Visits November 2016 24

Thunder Bay is the second most common health care service location, and is the service location for approximately 35,000 grant recipients, virtually all from Northwestern Ontario. Close to 16,000 health care travel grants were for travel to health care service provision in Winnipeg. This includes the 52% of travel grant recipients (11,800 patients) in Kenora and 28% in Rainy River (3,300 patients). When grant recipients within Thunder and Sudbury travel outside of their respective districts under the travel grant program, it is typically to specialized services in Southern Ontario, such as in Toronto. A total of 47,000 patients received travel grants for health care services in Southern Ontario. 3.3 Locations of Common Intercommunity Transportation Destinations Exhibit 3.6 shows health care services and post-secondary institutions, which are common intercommunity passenger transportation destinations. These are shown in relation to the provision of intercommunity bus connections and taxi services. Some of the health care service locations are the focus of the Northern Health Care Grant trips noted in the previous section. The exhibit shows that hospitals and health care centres are located in a number of communities along the Highway 11 and 17 corridors, as well as in Timmins, Red Lake, Sioux Lookout, Manitouwadge, Hornepayne, Chapleau, and Elliot Lake, and in the James Bay communities. Communities that have hospitals but do not have taxi service include Atikokan, Chapleau, Mattawa, Attawapiskat and Fort Albany. Eighteen communities have post-secondary education institutions, Red Lake being the only community without some form of scheduled intercommunity bus service, although scheduled air passenger services are available. November 2016 25

Exhibit 3.6: Bus and Taxi Connections to Post-Secondary Institutions and Health Care Services November 2016 26

4 Rail Passenger Services 4.1 Current Service Provision and Ridership Overall, passenger rail services are fairly limited in the North. There are currently only three regular routes in service, as was shown in Exhibit 1.1 together with service frequencies. These are described below. In addition to these, a seasonal tourist excursion train is operated by CN between Sault Ste. Marie and Agawa Canyon. The VIA Transcontinental Train ( The Canadian ) This service runs on the CN mainline from Toronto to Vancouver, two days per week in the winter, and three days per week in the summer. The train serves many communities in Northern Ontario. Major stops and train servicing takes place in Capreol, Hornepayne and Sioux Lookout. All other stops in Northern Ontario, with the exception of Sudbury Junction, are flag stops where the train only stops if a reservation is made in advance. The service s main markets are trips within Western Canada and between Western Canada and Southern Ontario. Of approximately 90,000 total annual boardings on this service (Via Rail, 2016) about 12% of trips are to, from or within Northern Ontario. Among Northern Ontario-related trips on The Canadian, trips within Northern Ontario, trips to/from Southern Ontario, and trips to/from Western Canada each represent approximately one-third of trips. Exhibit 4.1 shows boardings by Northern Ontario Station on this line for 2015. The busiest stations are Sudbury Junction and Sioux Lookout (with over 1,000 boardings each in 2015), as well as Hornepayne (approximately 750 boardings in 2015). For stations between Sioux Lookout and Nakina, communities that are at some distance from the primary highway network, the predominant trip purpose is to connect to other Northern Ontario communities. Service times on this line are based on transcontinental service needs and can be inconvenient in Northern Ontario. The westbound service departs Toronto at 10:00 p.m., serving Sudbury Junction (the closest stop to Sudbury) at about 5 a.m. continuing westbound, it reaches Sioux Lookout at midnight. The eastbound route leaves Winnipeg at 10:30 p.m. and reaches Sioux Lookout approximately 5 a.m., and Sudbury Junction about 1:00 a.m. the following day. As this service operates between Toronto and Vancouver, a distance of 4,466 km, on almost all single-track lines together with a relatively dense nexus November 2016 27

of freight train services, schedule adherence can be major issues, with trains sometimes hours late. Travel times can also be long in comparison to other transportation options. For example, the scheduled rail journey time from Sudbury to Toronto is 7 hours, whereas the road journey from Sudbury to downtown Toronto is approximately 4 hours. The Northern Ontario VIA Train This service runs on Canadian Pacific (CP) tracks from Sudbury to White River, operating three days per week in each direction. The route was established to serve a number of communities that do not have road or air access, and VIA rail is mandated to provide the service by the Government of Canada (Via Rail, 2014). Since the route was established, road connections have been built to these communities. Boardings by station for this line are shown in Exhibit 4.2. This service has among the highest subsidy levels per passenger among VIA services, stated to be $3.98 per passenger-mile (Via Rail, 2015); the average total boardings per train trip on this service is approximately 15. The service is operated out of Sudbury using self-propelled rail cars originally built in the 1950s. Cars have to be taken to Toronto or Montreal for major repairs. The Polar Bear Express Ontario Northland provides the Polar Bear Express passenger rail and rail freight service between Cochrane and Moosonee. This is the only year-round ground-based connection transportation to Moosonee and the James Bay coast. 4.2 Recent Rail Service Changes and Discontinuances VIA Rail In 2012, service on The Canadian line was reduced to 2 days per week from November to April, and maintained at 3 days per week May to October. November 2016 28

Exhibit 4.1: VIA Rail Boardings by Station for The Canadian Transcontinental Line by Destination Zone, 2015 Source: IBI Analysis of VIA Rail Data November 2016 29

Exhibit 4.2: VIA Rail Boardings by Station for Northern Ontario Line, 2015 Source: IBI Analysis of VIA Rail Data November 2016 30

Ontario Northland Services In 2012, a passenger rail service from Toronto to Cochrane, operated by the ONTC, was canceled; however the ONTC continued to provide its existing bus service to the communities previously served by the train. As part of a broader, organizational transformation, the ONTC continues to explore its market needs and to find efficiencies in its service provision. Algoma Central Rail Services On the line where CN operates the Agawa Canyon Tour Train (noted above), year-round service had been provided the full distance between Sault Ste. Marie and Hearst until July 2015. This former passenger rail Recently, the Algoma Central Railway passenger service between Sault Ste. Marie and Hearst was suspended. The service connected a number of First Nations, small hamlets, and camps without conventional road access or intercommunity bus service. The service had been subsidized under the federal Remote Passenger Rail Program, which is available where rail is the only method of access to remote communities. However, most communities along the line are now considered to have road access (sometimes by forest access roads only). This subsidy for the Algoma line was cut in 2014, then reinstated for one more year. A three-year subsidy was negotiated with the Federal Government in March 2015, but challenges in finding an operator and in negotiating a subsidy with the Federal Government have affected the efforts to reinstate the service. Local efforts, which include support from the City of Sault Ste. Marie and local First Nations, continue to explore options for ensuring this service is available in the future. On this same line, CN continues operating the Agawa Canyon Tourist Train (as well as some freight rail to Hearst). The tourist train is a same-day, round-trip, seasonal excursion to the canyon. This route was also run in the winter as the Snow Train until the 2014 2015 winter season. The train peaked in popularity in the 1970s and 1980s, when approximately 100,000 visitors toured the Agawa Canyon annually on average. Ridership remained approximately 80,000 through the 1990s, but dropped significantly after 2001 with increased border security, a weaker US dollar, and reduced US tourism in Canada overall. There were an estimated 40,000 visitors in 2006, with further declines since then (Malone, Givens, Parsons Ltd., 2007). With increased marketing efforts and a stronger US dollar, ridership in 2015 was the highest it has been in recent years, with over 30,000 passengers in 2015 (MNDM, personal communication, 2016). In comparison, the regular passenger train service between Sault Ste. Marie and November 2016 31

Hearst carried 10,600 passengers annually (about 200 passengers per week) between 2001 and 2006 (Malone, Givens, Parsons Ltd., 2007). 4.3 Past Trends in Passenger Rail Ridership Exhibit 4.3 shows historic annual ridership trends in Northern Ontario-related trips on VIA s The Canadian line from 2009 to 2015. Overall, Northern Ontariorelated ridership has declined by almost one third over that period due to service reductions, inconvenient service hours, and increasingly frequent and convenient air passenger services. However, trips within Northern Ontario have been much more consistent over this period and have dropped only about 10%, highlighting the relatively stable demand for passenger rail to connect communities within Northern Ontario. Exhibit 4.4 shows that ridership on The Northern Ontario line has also been fairly consistent over the same period. November 2016 32

Exhibit 4.3: VIA The Canadian Trips to/from Northern Ontario, 2009 2015 Source: IBI Group analysis of VIA Rail data Exhibit 4.4: VIA "Northern Ontario" Boardings, 2009 2015 Source: IBI Group analysis of VIA Rail data November 2016 33

5 Intercommunity Bus Services The intercommunity bus mode in Northern Ontario provides connections for passengers travelling between major urban centres, and also connects smaller communities to major urban centres. In Northern Ontario, most intercommunity bus services operate along provincial highways, particularly the Highway 11 and Highway 17 corridors. Relative to more densely populated regions in North America, private-sector bus companies have found the Northern Ontario market challenging to turn a profit. Northern Ontario has been experiencing service reductions and discontinuances over the years by all of the major bus operators, which in turn contributes to decreasing ridership levels, further challenging the situation. This section profiles the operators of bus services in Northern Ontario and the services provided by these operators. Two types of intercommunity bus operations are provided in Northern Ontario: Scheduled service, with posted frequencies and individual fares available for purchase by the general public; and Charter service, where operators deliver service on an on-demand basis to meet the needs of a client group; the operator receives one payment for the trip. 5.1 Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Operators and Services A map of scheduled intercommunity bus services in Northern Ontario was shown as Exhibit 1.2 with service levels and fares summarized in Exhibit 1.3. (Note that schedules can change on a regular basis to adapt to fluctuating demand, and services depicted are current as of summer 2016). Scheduled service provided by the five current operators covers most of the Highway 11 and 17 corridors (with the exception of Highway 11 between Longlac and Hearst), as well as Highway 144 between Sudbury and Timmins, Highway 101 east of Timmins, and Highway 655 between Timmins and Highway 11. Despite the service coverage, there is often an unmet need for effective service between regional centres that enables same-day travel. November 2016 34

Inter-Regional Operators Both Greyhound and Ontario Northland provide daily services connecting Northern Ontario with Southern Ontario, and provide connections between major Northern Ontario urban centres situated on or close to Highways 11 and 17, the main corridors through the North. Greyhound also connects to Winnipeg, Ottawa and beyond. Autobus Maheux provides a link between North Bay and Rouyn- Noranda, Quebec. The services of inter-regional bus operators are summarized below: Greyhound Canada provides service between Toronto and Winnipeg. From Toronto to Sudbury, the route operates express, stopping only in Barrie. From Sudbury, the route then follows Highway 17 from Sudbury through Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay, and Kenora to the Manitoba border, and represents the only intercommunity bus connection between Northeastern and Northwestern Ontario. Because this service is anchored in Toronto and Winnipeg, and given the long travel distances through Northern Ontario, the route passes through Many Northern Ontario communities at inconvenient times. Greyhound also provides daily service between Sudbury and Ottawa via Highway 17 and North Bay, transiting to a convenient transfer point in Ottawa for interprovincial trips to Quebec. Ontario Northland, a Crown agency of the Government of Ontario, provides intercommunity bus service in Northeastern Ontario with connections to Southern Ontario. Ontario Northland provides four round trips daily between Toronto and North Bay. Two buses daily continue north from North Bay along Highway 11 to Highway 101 at Matheson. Connections can then be made with Cochrane to the north or to Timmins to the west on Highway 101. Ontario Northland also provides three daily round trips between Toronto and Sudbury along Highways 400 and 69 this service includes multiple stops compared to the express service provided by Greyhound. One trip daily continues north of Sudbury to Timmins via Highway 144. Twice-daily express service connects Timmins to Cochrane via Highway 655. The Highway 11 corridor previously served by The Northlander passenger train, was discontinued in September 2012. Ontario Northland continues to provide bus service to every community previously served by the Northlander. November 2016 35

ONTC also provides a Sudbury-North Bay-Ottawa intercommunity bus service, which was started in January 2016, partly in response to recent Greyhound service cuts in the corridor. This new service was intended to be a six-month pilot. The initial six-month pilot phase has ended and the ONTC has approved the extension of the pilot for an additional six months. During periods of peak demand additional services may be operated. Autobus Maheux, an operator based in Quebec, serves a network in Western Quebec with a direct link between Rouyn-Noranda and North Bay. Autobus Maheux also provides service between Rouyn- Noranda and Montreal, and other communities in Quebec. There are no scheduled intercommunity bus services across the Canada-US international border; however, the Sault Ste. Marie Transit International Bridge Bus in Sault Ste. Marie provides a connection between the Greyhound stops in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan. Regional Operators Caribou Coach and Kasper Mini-Bus provide services connecting communities in Northwestern Ontario with the regional centre of Thunder Bay: Caribou Coach provides three trips weekly linking Fort Frances to Thunder Bay via Highway 11 west of Thunder Bay. Caribou Coach also provided five trips weekly linking Thunder Bay and Longlac via Highway 11 east of Thunder Bay, though this scheduled service has been temporarily suspended since August 2016. Caribou Coach additionally provides a specialized mine-run from the Thunder Bay airport and Atkinson s Camp (50 km northwest of Fort Frances, east of Highway 71); and Kasper Mini-Bus is the newest bus service provider in Northern Ontario, providing scheduled service since July 2015 on weekdays between Thunder Bay and Sioux Lookout along Highway 17, with additional stops on request. Kasper provides scheduled services between Thunder Bay and Longlac, having amalgamated with Porky s bus service, who previously served the route. In addition, A. J. Bus Lines is contracted by the City of Elliot Lake to provide daily service between Elliot Lake and the closest Greyhound stop on Highway 17, timed to coincide with the Greyhound service schedule. November 2016 36

Fares Intercommunity bus fares can be less expensive compared to air travel, as can be seen in Exhibit 5.1, a comparison table of fares by mode for select origindestination pairs by mode. The table shows that one-way adult fares for these origin-destination pairs are between $50 and $240, while the air fares are between approximately $200 and $400. Rail fares are comparable to bus fares for travel between the same locations. Ontario Northland and Greyhound offer multiple adult discounts, and Ontario Northland, Greyhound, Autobus Maheux and Caribou Coach offer senior, student, and child fares. There are two general types of fare structures among the intercommunity bus providers: Reservation-based fares: customers book tickets with pricing that may fluctuate based on demand and available capacity; and, Fixed-price fare: ticket prices for a given route that do not change based on demand or availability. Details on the fare system used by each carrier were included in Exhibit 1.3. Exhibit 5.1: Adult Fare Comparison for Selected Origin-Destination Pairs by Mode Lowest Fare by Mode Route Bus Air Rail Sudbury-Winnipeg $240 $400 $175 Toronto-Sudbury $80 $185 $60 Ottawa-Sudbury $80 $271 - Toronto-North Bay $80 $210 - Sudbury-Timmins $60 $210 - Thunder Bay-Sioux Lookout $75 $240 - Sioux Lookout-Winnipeg N/A $420 $65 Timmins-Moosonee N/A $375 $50 (to/from Cochrane) Notes: - indicates that no option is available for that mode. The lowest fare available is includes. Note that some airlines have fare options that are considerably more expensive November 2016 37

5.2 Recent Scheduled Service Reductions and Discontinuances A number of service reductions and discontinuances have taken place in recent years on the Northern Ontario intercommunity bus network. Changes in service levels between 2000 and 2016 are summarized in Exhibit 5.2, which shows that service levels have decreased considerably and several routes abandoned. Service changes in recent years are also shown in map form in Exhibit 5.3 and include the following: November 2015: Ontario Northland service on the Cochrane-Timmins route was reduced from three trips per day to two and the Cochrane Iroquois Falls/Matheson route was reduced from two trips per day to one. Service on Highway 11 between Kapuskasing and Hearst was reduced from daily to three times a week. In the past, Ontario Northland provided bus service between Timmins and Wawa via Highway 101. This service ended in the 1990s. September 2015: Greyhound nearly halved service from twice daily to once daily on its Winnipeg to Toronto and Sudbury to Ottawa routes; two additional weekly express Toronto-Sudbury trips (Fridays and Sundays) were spared. March 2015: Caribou Coach service between Longlac and Hearst was suspended indefinitely, severing a link between Northeastern and Northwestern Ontario. As a result of this cut, riders needing to travel between locations on the Highway 11 corridor north of North Bay to locations west of Hearst must travel to North Bay or Sudbury, then take the Greyhound route to Thunder Bay. Kasper minibus temporarily introduced a Longlac to Hearst service in May 2016. The service was temporarily suspended in May 2016; however, Kasper has indicated via social media that it is exploring options to reinstate the service. January 2014: Caribou Coach stopped providing service on Highway 105, leaving the Red Lake community without an intercommunity bus connection to Highway 11. Services previously ran three times per week. December 2013: Caribou Coach stopped providing service between Fort Frances and Kenora via Highway 71, servicing smaller communities in the Kenora District such as Sioux Narrows and Crow Lake. This service ran three times a week. November 2016 38

Exhibit 5.2: Northern Ontario Bus Service Levels, 2000 and 2016 Service Routing Year 2000 Service Frequency Year 2016 Service Frequency Greyhound Canada Sudbury - Winnipeg Hwy17 3/day 1/day Toronto - Sudbury Hwy 400, Hwy 69 3/day 9/week Ottawa - Sudbury Hwy17 3/day 1/day Thunder Bay - Kirkland Lake Hwy 11 1/day Discontinued Timmins- Kirkland Lake - Toronto Hwy 101, Hwy 11 3/day Discontinued Ontario Northland Toronto-North Bay Hwy 11 2/day 4/day North Bay-Matheson Hwy 11 2/day 2/day Matheson-Cochrane Hwy 11 2/day 1/day Matheson-Timmins Hwy 101 6/week 3/day Toronto-Sudbury Hwy 400, Hwy 69 6/day 3/day Sudbury-Timmins Hwy 144 1/day 1/day Timmins-Cochrane Hwy 655 1/day 2/day Cochrane-Kapuskasing Hwy 11 not served 1/day Kapuskasing-Hearst Hwy 11 not served 3/week Autobus Maheux North Bay - Rouyn-Noranda Hwy 63, QC 101 1/day 1/day Kirkland Lake - Rouyn-Noranda Hwy 66, QC 117 1/day Discontinued Grey Goose Bus Lines Winnipeg - Fort Frances Hwy 17, Hwy71 2/day Discontinued Fort Frances - Thunder Bay Hwy 11 1/day Discontinued Caribou Coach Lines Thunder Bay - Fort Frances Hwy 11 Grey Goose 3/week Thunder Bay - Longlac Hwy 11 Greyhound 5/week ( temporarily suspended as of August 2017) Kasper Thunder Bay - Sioux Lookout Hwy 11, Hwy 72-5/week Thunder Bay - Longlac Hwy 11 Greyhound 5/week A.J. Bus Lines Elliot Lake Hwy 17 Hwy 108 Greyhound 7/week November 2016 39

Exhibit 5.3: Recent Scheduled Intercommunity Bus Service Reductions and Discontinuances November 2016 40

5.3 Ridership on Scheduled Services Ridership information for Northern Ontario intercommunity bus services was not available for Strategy development purposes, though reduced ridership levels have been cited as a reason for reducing service levels, and it is known that reducing service levels tends to have a further negative impact on ridership, in a continuing downward spiral. Anecdotal information about bus ridership levels was shared during Strategy engagement sessions. The most highly-used services are connections from North Bay and Sudbury to Toronto, where buses have been reported to be often full upon arrival at intermediary stops. At the same time, buses on Highway 17 west of Sudbury often operate at less than capacity, and Caribou Coach Services have been observed to be carrying only a fraction of their capacity. According to feedback from intercommunity bus stakeholders, the major markets served include students, seniors, and lower-income individuals. With significant travel time savings compared to ground-based modes, air travel is gaining ridership, which may contribute to the downward trend of bus ridership. For example, both Porter and Bearskin Airlines have increased service to several communities in Northern Ontario, often with introductory and competitive fares. Airline service frequencies are detailed in the Municipal Airports Technical Backgrounder. Travel Purposes Based on feedback from intercommunity bus stakeholders, the major markets served include students, seniors, and lower-income individuals. Common trip purposes were identified as follows, though the relative proportion of each is not known: Social, e.g. visiting friends or relatives; Non-emergency health care and medical appointments; Shopping/groceries; Post-secondary schools; Religious or cultural events; Personal appointments such as banking, court related or legal meetings; and Employment. November 2016 41

5.4 Bus Stops and Terminals Major urban centres in Northern Ontario tend to have a sheltered terminal for intercommunity buses: In Northeastern Ontario, most terminals are operated by Ontario Northland, providing a sheltered waiting area, restrooms, and ticketing services. Ontario Northland terminals are located in North Bay, Sudbury, Timmins, Cochrane and Kirkland Lake. In Sudbury, Greyhound and Ontario Northland operate from the same terminal as of June 2016, whereas they previously had separate terminals over 9 km apart. In Northwestern Ontario, each operator has its own terminal in Thunder Bay. The Greyhound and Caribou Coach terminals are adjacent, and Kasper Mini-Bus operates in a terminal 800 m away. Greyhound operates a bus depot providing ticketing services and shelter in Kenora. Other stops are a mix of agency stops, where a local business (often a gas station/convenience store) sells tickets on behalf of the bus operator, and flag stops, with no ticket agent. Agency stops only feature whatever amenities are at the local business, and in some cases do not include a sheltered waiting area. Flag stops do not have any amenities, and the bus only stops if flagged down. These flag stops are often poorly lit and have no sheltered waiting area or other amenities. This means that passengers must wait for buses on the side of the road with no protection from winter weather and general inclement weather. Poorly lit stops are also safety concerns for individuals waiting for buses at night. 5.5 Vehicle Types Greyhound Canada, Ontario Northland, and Caribou Coach all operate traditional, highway-style coaches (capacity of 47 to 56 seats) on their intercommunity routes, such as shown in Exhibit 5.4. Kasper differs from traditional operators by utilizing 16-seat minibuses, customized for long-distance journeys. Smaller vehicles such as these can reduce costs and increase the financial viability of providing a new bus service where the anticipated ridership is too low to fill a full-size bus. November 2016 42

Exhibit 5.4: Traditional Full-Size Coach Example: Ontario Northland Photo Source: Ontario Northland (used with permission) 5.6 Charter Bus Services Thirty-five charter carriers based in Northern Ontario are registered with the Ontario Highway Transport Board. Around half of these charter carriers are based in major Northern Ontario urban areas, with others based in smaller communities such as Hearst and Sioux Lookout. Additional carriers based elsewhere in Ontario are registered to offer charter service in Northern Ontario. Charter carriers offer service for group travel in Northern Ontario for a wide variety of trip purposes, including social, shopping, and work-related. Many charter carriers are also tour providers, organizing tourism-related travel in Northern Ontario. Charter carriers are also important in supporting shuttle service for employees to the remote Northern Ontario mining locations. For example, Tisdale Bus Lines has been chartered to provide scheduled service to Cochrane from the Detour Lake mine. Chartered carriers are important for remote industrial operations, providing employee transport service from major urban centres to employee camps. November 2016 43