1st August, 213 more in line with long term averages for NSW, albeit all too late for the Walgett region which was denied sufficient rainfall to commence sowing and as a result less than half of the crop is expected to have been planted. Surrounding regions fared better and crop germination is looking promising. For the second consecutive month VIC has registered above average rainfall with the Wimmera receiving a substantial down pour throughout y, bolstering prospects for major production region. The Mallee was more in line with average rainfall with moisture levels looking sufficient for both to warrant some optimism for the season s outlook. The Goulburn, Western District and Oven s and Murray regions all bested their long term averages by double digit margins which bodes well for the 213/14 crop production forecasts. WA was again below average on their statewide rainfall figures for y. The west was saved somewhat by a midmonth deluge which seemed to come without warning or forecast. The rains went some way to assisting rains in the Southeast region which recorded a 19mm reading above their y average. The Midlands, Lower Great Southern and Central regions continued to struggle this month all falling well below monthly averages as crop production outlooks continue to seesaw across the state. NOTE: A number of new and existing ACF subscribers have enquired as to what the table on the right hand of the state pages mean. As a result you will note on the next page a breakdown of what each of the figures represent. As always, if you ever have any questions with any of our reports please feel free to get in contact on: nicholas.brooks@nzx.com Finishing rains? ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 Monthly Rainfall Percentages Upper Layer % of Soil Moisture CSRIO SOI ~ 3 day average +7.6 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 1 15 5 Mth Moving Ave Aug to Oct Chance of receiving at least (mm) QLD 75% 5% 25% LTM CQ 67 18 164 69 Darling Downs 126 164 224 121 South West 88 156 83 Northern 17 215 119 North West 94 132 172 85 Central West 118 161 199 16 Riverina 167 211 262 136 VIC 75% 5% 25% LTM M allee 16 139 194 91 Wimmera 168 24 248 154 Western District 226 263 293 222 North East 175 229 299 147 M allee/m urray 162 195 119 North 94 137 166 96 York/M id North 135 169 198 133 EP 112 146 17 116 NSW 3month rainfall outlook (mm) SA WA Geraldton 57 78 99 86 Kwinana 69 88 11 92 Albany 92 115 142 116 Esperance 12 157 125 1 13 Mar13 12 Nov12 Mar12 11 Nov11 Mar11 1 Nov1 Mar1 9 Nov9 Mar9 8 2 Monthly SOI 3month above median probability The outlook continues to favor the east coast with much of VIC and southern NSW now showing an above 8% probability of above median rainfall. This bodes well for production regions including the Mallee, Wimmera, Murray, Riverina and Murrumbidgee. Further north into QLD and northern NSW, both are 75% likely of above median rainfall as the season continues to derisk in these areas. Whilst SA to date has experienced quality rainfall both over summer and growing season it appears that the eastern regions of the state are slightly more highly favored to achieve above average rainfall at 7% whilst the western regions, mainly the Eyre Peninsula, remain at a 65% likelihood of exceeding the median. No relief in the pipeline for WA in the forecast with much of the state ranging between 4555% chance of exceeding averages. Monthly Rainfall Totals y Nov8 Midpoint of Growing Season The end of y signifies the halfway point in the traditional Australian growing season for winter crops. In this month s edition of the ACF Rainfall Monitor we ll assess where each state is at versus the long range average for the AprNov period. SA continues to display all the signs of what is shaping to be an impressive season from a production standpoint. All of the major cropping regions have received above average rainfall and the state has gone on to achieve above average rainfall not only for every month of the growing season but also for every month back until January, 213. Of the major production regions topsoil moisture appears to be holding well with the only area of any concern being the northern regions of the Eyre Peninsula experiencing it s usual dryness despite above average rainfall in the region. Rain starved regions of western QLD missed their usual deluge during the summer leading to a severe lack of feed in the region for much of the year to date. The winter period hasn t seen much relief for the area and the last two months has seen all major cropping regions finish below average, albeit only slightly for y. Growing season rainfall remains slightly above the long term median. Despite this some topsoil moisture concerns are starting to surface in CQ and parts of the Mackay region. The Darling Downs are said to be looking well with many crops enjoying a great start to the season and many remaining sorghum crops producing fantastic results in the last month. June saw NSW pull itself from what was looking like imminent despair with breaking rains arriving on May 31st and continuing on throughout much of June finishing with just shy of triple the average monthly rainfall. y has delivered rains
9 8 7 6 QUEENSLAND (weighted by cropping region) 213 212 211 9 8 7 6 1 1 9 8 7 6 Darling Downs South West 9 8 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM Fitzroy Mackay 1 1 9 8 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM Town name y Rainfall y Rainfall vs average +/ vs Average GSR +/ vs Av. Cambooya 44 7 22 Chinchilla 5 6 4 Dalby 15 23 33 Jandowae 2 6 18 Meandarra 8 2 22 Millmerran 41 5 2 Wandoan 25 15 8 Roma 8 11 Surat 21 8 25 Talwood 36 2 17 Goondiwindi 25 5 2 Biloela 5 6 15 Springsure 16 4 8 Comet 1 35 Emerald 2 25 4 Clermont 1 9 19 Current growing season (AprOct) rainfall vs average ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 2
8 7 NEW SOUTH WALES (weighted by cropping region) 213 212 211 21 LTM 6 8 7 6 9 8 7 6 7 6 Northern North Western 9 8 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM South Eastern Central West 8 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM Murrumbidgee Murray 7 6 +/ GSR vs +/ vs Mungindi 2 9 8 Croppa Creek 37 15 2 Moree 32 13 2 Narrabri 71 16 3 Walgett 14 4 11 Bellata 6 6 47 Gunnedah 9 3 33 Coonamble 72 6 31 Nyngan 93 3 72 Trangie 8 51 Parkes 176 28 156 Condobolin 124 4 18 Quandialla 13 3 67 Temora 87 25 3 Griffith 39 8 19 Wagga Wagga 89 5 34 The Rock 83 4 23 Lockhart 67 11 52 Henty 17 7 98 Tocumwal 78 13 58 Mulwala 61 5 32 Finley 83 9 24 Balranald 59 3 58 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 3
6 55 VICTORIA (weighted by cropping region) 213 212 211 21 LTM 45 35 25 15 5 55 45 35 25 15 5 8 7 6 8 7 6 Mallee Loddon 8 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM Goulburn 213 212 211 21 LTM Central Highlands 6 55 45 35 25 15 5 8 7 6 Wimmera 213 212 211 21 LTM Western District +/ GSR vs +/ vs Ouyen 76 9 58 Murrayville 38 9 19 Werimull 44 8 36 Sea Lake 49 1 16 Berriwillock 38 2 3 Birchip 58 13 Charlton 51 5 26 Donald 73 3 26 Beulah 77 2 16 Dimboola 82 26 48 Nhill 125 2 94 Goroke 89 31 44 St Arnaud 71 5 16 Rupanyup 61 16 18 Beaufort 82 42 9 Westmere 74 15 35 Willaura 5 18 12 Lismore 79 11 7 Derrinallum 75 6 Cressy 92 13 38 Raywood 44 11 11 Kyabram 48 24 13 Dookie 66 13 11 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 4
SOUTH AUSTRALIA (weighted by cropping region) 45 35 25 15 5 213 212 211 21 LTA 55 45 35 25 15 5 45 35 25 15 5 55 45 35 25 15 5 Yorke & Lower North Eyre 213 212 211 21 LTA Northern 213 212 211 21 LTA 45 35 25 15 5 7 6 213 212 211 21 LTA South East 213 212 211 21 LTA Outer Adelaide Murray Lands 45 35 25 15 5 213 212 211 21 LTA 213 212 211 21 LTA +/ GSR vs +/ vs Karoonda 56 31 59 Keith 86 27 64 Lameroo 39 3 1 Loxton 45 54 Ardrossan 76 26 76 Balaklava 56 16 53 Blyth 89 8 68 Eudunda 74 21 53 Kadina 77 23 68 Clare 12 8 68 Snowtown 114 33 138 Cleve 123 21 18 Cummins 96 18 52 Kimba 8 49 13 Elliston 134 42 96 Penong 42 11 48 Booleroo Centre 125 24 122 Crystal Brook 126 13 119 Spalding 9 17 82 Kapunda 55 6 5 Two Wells 57 17 44 ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 5
45 WEST AUSTRALIA (weighted by cropping region) 213 212 211 21 LTM 35 25 15 5 45 35 25 15 5 45 35 25 15 5 7 6 Central Midlands 35 25 15 5 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM Upper Great Southern 45 35 25 15 5 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM South West 55 45 35 25 15 5 Lower Great Southern South Eastern +/ GSR vs +/ vs Mullewa 3 33 4 Mingenew 4 26 47 Morawa 15 23 8 Coorow 3 8 42 Wongan Hills 3 21 64 Nungarin 9 6 48 Badgingarra 14 21 45 Northam 6 11 66 Wyalkatchem 6 16 52 Merredin 7 13 45 Tammin 7 2 41 Quairading 9 55 Corrigin 3 6 27 Wagin 16 15 43 Hyden 12 25 9 Lake Grace 1 11 6 Katanning 19 18 48 Narrogin 14 11 62 Nyabing 16 16 47 Boyup Brook 39 28 132 Gnowangerup 26 1 23 Munglinup 35 28 82 Ravensthorpe 51 37 85 Salmon Gums 18 9 18 Esperance 45 2 2 213 212 211 21 LTM 213 212 211 21 LTM ACF Rainfall Monitor August 213 6