Content Background Study Results Next Steps 2
ICAO role and actions in previous crisis time Background October 1973 oil crisis: oil price increased by 400% and oil production decreased by 240% Early 1974: ICAO Council approved a Recommendation to States to take the following actions Examine the air navigation and air traffic control procedures over their territories so as to reduce as much as possible flying distances and air traffic delays, according to identified 6 measures Achieve maximum coordination on fuel supply so as to ensure that the operation of air services be maintained at the level required in the public interest Where restrictions on aviation fuel supply have to be imposed, give priority to commercial air transport; Refrain, on a basis of reciprocity, from discrimination against airlines of other countries in the distribution of available fuel at their own airports; and Consider favourably proposals by airlines of special measures requiring government approval such as amendments to schedules, limitation of frequencies or consolidation of routes, where motivated by the fuel crisis. 1977: ICAO Assembly adopted a resolution (A22-27) calling on the Council to 3 collect and make available to Contracting States relevant information on the subject
Air travel demand and oil supply in crisis times Background World annual traffic trillion RTKs 0.6 0.5 0.4 World air traffic World oil supply 1 st Iraq War Hurricanes Financial crisis 90 85 80 75 0.3 0.2 Oil Shock Oil Crisis Iraq-Iran War 1990-2000: 5.6% p.a. 2000-2008: 4.4% p.a. 70 65 60 55 0.1 0 1970-1980: 8.7% p.a. 1980-1990: 6% p.a. 50 45 40 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: ICAO, BP 4
Fuel consumption and economic growth Background Oil price growth in % 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 Air travel fuel consumption growth Until now not inversely correlated with oil price Correlated with state of global economy (GDP growth) 1977 1979 1981 1983 Source: ICAO, EIA and HIS/Global Insight Real oil price growth Real GDP @ PPP*growth 1985 Fuel Consumption growth 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 MTD 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 *PPP: Purchasing Power Parity is an economic theory linking 5 currency exchange rates to prices paid for goods and services in any two countries. Fuel price & GDP growth in %
Study results published in 1979 in Circular 149-AT/52. Based on multiple sources available, the study looked into : The patterns of global energy consumption Study Results Projections for oil demand until end of the 20th century Oil reserves World oil trade and supply Alternative energy resources Aviation fuel supply Trends and prospects in oil prices Aspects that would impact the civil aviation fuel requirements in the following decade and in a longer term 6
Impact of oil price ASSUMPTIONS Despite fluctuations in oil price a long-term price trend was defined Study Results Reflects gradual adjustment of demand resulting from conservation measures and the development of other energy sources. Future aviation fuel price trends uncertain Competing needs for fuel from other transport modes.? That could change the price relationships between aviation fuel, gasoline and distillate fuel dependant upon demand developments. 7
Oil price evolution and air travel fuel efficiency Study Results Oil price (U S $ / B arrel) $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 Nominal oil price Real oil price International Air travel fuel consumption International Services Fuel Efficiency 1978-2000 -2.9% Oil price 1978-2000 -1.6% Fuel consumption (US Gallons) International Services 47 Fuel Efficiency 2000-2007 2007 42-1.4% 37 32 27 22 17 Oil price 12 2000-2007 2007 9.8% 7 2 1973 1973 1975 1975 1977 1977 1979 1979 1981 1981 1983 1983 1985 1985 1987 1987 1989 1989 1991 1991 1993 1993 1995 1995 1997 1997 1999 1999 2001 2001 2003 2003 2005 2005 2007 2007 Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable, EIA 8
Air traffic forecasts scenarios predicted in 1978 Study Results Source: ICAO World traffic in Billion RTKs 1978 traffic forecasts scenarios vs historical traffic evolution 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1978 High case scenario 8.5% 1978-2000 (six-fold) Historical traffic 1978-2000: 5.9% Low-case scenario: 5.1% 1978-2000 (three fold) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Assumptions for air travel demand drivers Economic growth Declining fares in real terms in line with the trend of oil price between 1978 and 2000 Route network expansions with more direct routing Higher service frequencies and reduced travel times 9
Fuel consumption and fuel efficiency Study Results Fuel burn 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fuel consumed (USG) Fuel Low Scen Fuel High Scen Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable Fuel Efficiency (in Fuel burn per RTK) Period 1978 Low Scenario Historical 1978 High Scenario 1978-1990 -1.9% -1.7% 1990-2000 -1.8% -2.2% -2.4% 1978-2000 -1.9% -2% 2000-2007 -2.2% 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10
Adequacy of supplies for aviation fuel demand More specifically, the major conclusions were: Study Results End 2000, aviation fuel consumption would represent 5 to 10 % of projected total oil consumption; Future civil aviation fuel needs will depend on the proportion of the production which can be refined to meet civil aviation specifications; Demand for aviation fuel towards end 2000 might be higher than 10 to 15 % of total oil supply and only 10 to 15 % of total crude oil production can be converted to kerosene; and If the prospective availability of aviation fuel had not been adequate, there would have been a need for remedial measures such as broader technical specifications to aviation fuel or the use of synthetic fuels 11
Oil supply and air travel consumption share Next Steps MBrl per day 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: ICAO, CAEP Scenarios to 2050 (preliminary figures), EIA Total Oil supply Transportation share Air travel share 2005-2030 1.2% 2005-2030 1.7% 2005-2030 1.2% 1980 2005 2015 2030 12
GIACC/3 request for fuel consumption data under Article 67 mechanism Article 67 defines the ICAO mandate to collect data from each Contracting State, based on the carrier principle, i.e. from commercial carriers (to be submitted by the State in which a carrier has its principle place of business), ICAO Statistics Programme is addressed in Appendix B of Assembly Resolution A36-15 precising that: ICAO must examine on a regular basis the statistical data (referring to statistics on airline operations ) collected Next Steps Establish the necessary metrics to monitor the performance of the organization in meeting its Strategic Objectives Fourteenth meeting of the Statistics Panel (STAP/14) convened in March 2009 to provide recommendations to the forthcoming Tenth Session of the Statistics Division, to be held in November 2009 13
STAP/14 recommendation: Data collection on fuel consumption to be implemented Next Steps CHALLENGES Issue of possible duplication of requirements and additional burden placed on Contracting States to report fuel consumption data both to ICAO and the UNFCCC Complex UNFCCC principles for collecting emissions data, based on country of departure rule Annex I countries (62% of total traffic) should report emissions while non-annex I countries should report them to the extent possible In that context, based on the UNFCCC principle of country of departure, fuel sale data are the only information available by country of departure RESPONSES Introduction of a new form for reporting fuel consumption by commercial air carriers. Addition of an item regarding aircraft type (passenger versus all-cargo). Inclusion of an item related to alternative fuels share in total fuel consumed (by aircraft type). Regular assistance to be provided to States regarding the collection and analysis of data, in the form of workshops, on-the-job training and other assistance requirements 14
Conclusion Crisis periodicity is shortening from a 10 year period to less than 8 years period and the current economic crisis impacts on air travel fuel consumption have to be carefully analyzed Need to monitor closely fuel consumption, and fuel efficiency through an ad hoc annual data collection, as recommended notably by the Assembly resolution A22-27 Need to implement air travel forecasts enabling sensitivity analysis to economic growth but also to oil price Next Steps Need to explore how, e.g. airport and airspace constraints could impact the current unconstrained forecasts Continue to follow-up the economic restructuring of the air transport industry in order to determine any potential impact on ICAO Strategic Objectives 15
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