Terrorism Impact on International Air Passengers to Tunisia Valencia July 2015 Applied traveler operational intelligence to support tactical business decisions www.forwardkeys.com
Methodology and Glossary ForwardKeys database processes 25 billion transactions a year, providing unique global coverage. It includes all bookings processed by online and offline travel agencies worldwide through the leading Global Distribution Systems (GDSs), including Amadeus, Galileo, Sabre, WorldSpan, TravelSky, Axess and Abacus. Bookings made direct with airlines, low-cost carriers and charter flights are not included. ForwardKeys data represents actual bookings they are not grossed up or manipulated in any other way. This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data propriety of ForwardKeys as of 17 th July 2015. Database updated as of 14 th July 2015. Perimeter: Markets: Total International Destinations: Tunisia Period: Booking History: Weekly from Dec 31 st 2014 to July 14 th 2015; Arrival History: Weekly from Dec 31 st 2014 to July 14 th 2015; On the Book: July 15 th 2015 to December 28 th 2015, based on issued bookings as of July 14 th 2015; Lengths of Stay: Current analysis includes air reservations with staying at least one night at the destination, thus excluding transits, day trips, and one-way trips. Arrivals refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame. Arrivals on the Book (OTB Arrivals) refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted. Bookings represent air reservations made for travel to the specific destination (i.e. Barcelona) for any date of travel.
Weekly International Bookings to Tunisia 2015 YTD Two Attacks Hit the Dismal Bookings into Deeper Valley International bookings to Tunisia was underperformed since mid-2014. The two terrorist attacks in the first half of 2015 clearly have made the situation further worse. Weekly International Bookings to Tunisia : Wed Dec 31 st 2014 to Tue Jul 14 th 2015 Based on Actual Weekly Booking Volume. Current year (2015) vs. Previous year (2014) Museum Attack March 18 th Beach Attack -44.7% -42.2% June 26 th 2014 2015 3 weeks clear drop 3 weeks clear drop 3
Booking Performance to Tunisia. Top 10 Source Countries. Switzerland the Most Fierce Reaction The beach attack caused a similar drop for total international bookings to Tunisia compared to the museum attack in March 2015, except for Switzerland, where more cancellations than bookings were made, and the majority of the cancellations were for the summer vacation. %Var. of Total Bookings to Tunisia. Top 10 Source Countries 2015 YTD. %Var. over -100% means during the stated period, more cancellations were made than bookings. 4
Forward Looking Tunisia during rest of 2015: 15-Jul to 29-Dec Depressed for the Rest of 2015 Tunisia will see an influx from Algeria for the last two weeks of July, which were booked since the beginning of 2015 for their Ramadan-end holiday. Other than that, the future six months are very depressed for Tunisia. %Var. of Weekly Arrivals on the Book for Jul 15 th to Dec 29 th 2015. Based on issued bookings as of Jul 14 th 2015-21% Arrivals on the Book for Jul 15 th to Dec 29 th 2015. Top 15 Source Countries Origins VAR% 2015 vs. 2014 5
Forward Looking Tunisia Summer 15-Jul to 31-Aug 2015 The Only Resilient Region: the Americas The Americas is the only resilient region for the summer arrivals in Tunisia. Travelers staying 22+ nights in Tunisia count for over 60% of total arrivals on the Book from the Americas, indicating the resilient traffic is likely to be visiting-family-and-friends related. Arrivals on the Book for Tunisia by World region, 15 Jul to 31 Aug 2015 (%Share of Total Arrivals on the book; %Var. vs. Prev. Year) Tunisia Summer on the Book -18% Europe 72.5% -22% The Americas 6.4% +2.3% Africa 11.4% -5.6% Middle East 9.2% -12% Asia Pacific 0.5% -1.2% 6 %Share of Total Arrivals on the Book to Tunisia issued as of July 14 th 2015 Size matches market share ratio; Color matches positive or negative YoY Var.