Baltic Port Market RECIENT FACTS & FIGURES BPO Conference Riga, 3-4.09.2015
Schedule TOTAL CARGO TURNOVER Trends of the last decade 2005-2014 First half of 2015 preliminary results MAIN TYPES OF CARGO CONTAINERS PORTS & FLEET Future prospects & challenges economy & trade 2
Cargo turnover of the Baltic maritime ports in years 2004-2014 900,0 800,0 700,0 600,0 4,7% 4,2% 3,4% 11,4% 4,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 500,0 400,0 0,5% 0,1% -0,6% -0,9% 0,0% 300,0-5,0% 200,0 100,0 0,0-10,0% -10,3% -15,0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BSR UE (m tons) Russia: Baltic (m tons) BSR growth (UE) BSR growth (total)
Development of the cargo turnover in the Baltic seaports in the first half of 2015 10,0% 5,0% 5,9% 5,3% 4,2% 2,9% 2,3% 2,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% Poland Lithuania Denmark (1Q) Baltic Germany (1Q) Russia Sweden Latvia Finland Estonia (Tallinn) -5,0% -7,7% -15,0% -20,0% -25,0% -20,7%
Top 20 of the Baltic maritime ports in the 1H 2015 (estimation) 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% -25,0% Turnover 1H 2015 (mt) Growth 1H 2015 (%)
Development of liquid cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: 2005 2014 160,0 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 133,8 61,2 Primorsk Ust-Luga Sköldvik Briofiorden Gothenburg Tallinn Ventspils St. Petersburg Gdańsk Vysotsk 22,4 21,3 19,2 18,9 15,6 14,3 12,5 12,2 53,7 50,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 29,5 28,8 26,0 25,8 16,3 15,2 Russia Sweden Finland Denmark Estonia Latvia Poland Lithuania Baltic Germany 4,0 2005 2014
Development of dry bulk cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: 2005 2014 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 43,1 35,9 31,7 29,9 Riga 23,5 Ust-Luga 22,0 Klaipéda 17,0 Szczecin-Świnoujście 11,4 St. Petersburg 8,8 Gdańsk 8,6 Ventspils 8,0 Kokkola 7,7 Rostock 7,5 Luelå 7,0 28,7 26,6 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 17,0 14,6 Russia Finlad Latvia Denmark Sweden Poland Lithuania Baltic Germany 4,8 Estonia 2005 2014
Development of general cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: 2005 2014 90 80 70 60 76,9 St. Petersburg Gothenburg Lübeck Klaipéda Gdańsk Helsinki Trelleborg Gdynia Rostock Szczecin-Świnoujście 11,5 11,2 10,8 10,5 9,0 8,2 8,0 17,4 16,2 34,5 50 40 46,6 39,3 34,5 33,7 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 30 26,0 20 10 16,6 12,8 11,5 0 Sweden Russia Finland Baltic Germany Denmark Poland Latvia Estonia Lithuania 2005 2014
4,70 5,37 6,44 5,82 7,57 7,99 7,32 8,76 9,38 9,75 9,72 Container traffic in the Baltic seaports 2004-2014 12,00 25,9% 30,0% 10,00 15,5% 14,3% 20,0% 17,4% 19,7% 20,0% 8,00 6,00 5,6% 7,1% 3,9% -0,3% 10,0% 0,0% 4,00-10,0% 2,00 0,00-27,2% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Containet traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%) -20,0% -30,0% 9
Container traffic in the Baltic Seaports 2004 vs. 2014 10
Top Baltic container ports in 2014 2 500 000 20,0% 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 0-5,6% 2,9% 16,4% -2,5% -8,3% 11,8% 2,7% -1,2% 1,7% 0,8% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% 11
Traffic development of the top Baltic container ports in year 2015 with traffic forecast 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0-28,7% -18,4% -20,0% -5,0% -10,3% -15,9% 10,2% 4,5% -3,1% -59,1% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% -10,0% -20,0% -30,0% -40,0% -50,0% -60,0% -70,0% 2014 2015 (est.) Growth 2015
5,82 7,99 7,32 8,76 9,38 8,00 9,75 9,72 Container traffic in the Baltic seaports 2008-2014 and estimation for 2015 12,00 10,00 25,9% 19,7% 30,0% 20,0% 8,00 6,00 5,6% 7,1% 3,9% -0,3% 10,0% 0,0% 4,00 2,00 0,00-27,2% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (est.) Containet traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%) -10,0% -17,7% -20,0% -30,0% 13
Development of the Baltic feeder fleet in 2007-2014 14
Baltic top 10 feeder/short-sea container operators fleets [as of August 2015] 30 000 85% 100% 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000-20% -33% 4% 3% -10% -29% 0% -34% 27% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 0-40% Total TEU capacity Yoy [%] 15
Baltic maritime port trends short summary Stagnation in the total turnover in the Baltic maritime ports with redefinition of the cargo flow scheme (oil, coal, containers). Growing importance of the Russian ports in the Baltic Sea region (1/4 of market & top 3 Baltic ports). Improvement of turnover in all main types of cargo during last decade: liquid cargo +17%, dry bulk +12% & general cargo +14%. Cyclical development of the container traffic in the Baltic ports with strong decline in 2015 (global & regional factors). Related changes in the Baltic container fleet at the turn of 2014 and 2015 years (decrease of capacity & slight limitation of the vessel size) Economic growth and trade of the Baltic countries as the main factors for further development of seaports turnover
Dynamic of GDP growth in the Baltic countries, 2013 & 2014 [%] 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,30 2,93 2,36 2,14 2,08 1,61 0,99 0,62-0,11-1,00-2,00 2013 2014
GDP growth forecasts for 2015 - revision by IMF (10.2014 04.2015) 5,00 4,00 3,48 3,00 2,00 1,00 2,85 2,66 2,52 2,30 1,64 1,62 0,83 0,00-1,00-2,00-3,00-4,00 IMF 10.2014 IMF 04.2015-3,83
Forecast of GDP annual growth in year 2020 4,00% 3,50% 3,95% 3,73% 3,63% 3,38% 3,00% 2,50% 2,32% 2,22% 2,00% 1,50% 1,76% 1,50% 1,26% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00%
Annual growth of export & import in year 2020 [%] 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Poland Denmark Estonia Sweden Germany Latvia Russia Finland Import Export
Future challenges for ports of the Baltic Sea region Solid but modest rate of economic growth of European countries & recovery of Russian economy. Gradual improvement of intra & extra European trade (especially in terms of volume) Baltic maritime transport as competitive mode of transport. Improvement of the average value of traded goods contenerisation & ro-ro traffic development. Stabilisation of geopolitical and economic situation: European Union, East Europe, Global scale. Environmental restrictions & requirements (e.g. SECA). Fuel prices development. Vertical and horizontal integration in maritime transport (e.g. alliances development M2, G6, CKYHE, O3).
Thank you! Maciej Matczak mmatczak@am.gdynia.pl