Impact of Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Basanta Shrestha (bshrestha@icimod.org), Division Head MENRIS, ICIMOD Focus on Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Sentinel Asia JPTM Step 2 Meeting 16 July 2009 Bali, Indonesia
Mountains: Prone to Natural Disaster 12 May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake 8 October 2005 Pakistan Earthquake 25August 2008 Bihar North India Flooding 3 May 2008 Myanmar Nargis Cyclone
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazards in Himalaya C H I N A N E P A L Location of some of the past GLOF events effecting in Himalaya, often have Trans-boundary implications
Impact of Climate Change in the Himalaya The Crysophere A Natural Fresh Water Reserve Elements of earth surface in frozen state Largest Concentration of snow and ice outside the polar regions Lacks scientific understanding on cryosphere and its dynamics
Impact of climate change on water resources Water tower of Asia 10 large river systems Lifeline for more than 1.3 billion population Concerns about global warming and its implications
Cryoshphere - an indicator of climate change Rapid melting of glaciers Increased water-induced disasters and casualties Shift of monsoonal and weather pattern
Key Issues and Gaps One of the most data gap region in the world Blank spot in the global climatic map Regional database and approach Regional Capacity and network
Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN HP CHINA UA NEPAL SK BHUTAN INDIA
Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes Glaciers and Glacial lakes of Nepal, Bhutan, India, Pakistan and TAR/China
Glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal Mahakali Basin Karnali Basin Gandaki Basin Koshi Basin Glacial lakes - 2323
Potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Glacial lakes are formed by accumulation of water from the melting of snow and ice cover and by blockage of end moraines Sudden break of a moraine may generate the discharge of large volumes of water and debris causing floods (GLOFs) Arun Shrestha
Dig Tsho GLOF in 4 August 1985 Breaching of Lake Dig Tsho and debris in the valley (Photo in 1991,WECS) Namche Small Hydel Project at Thame Village destroyed due to Dig Tsho GLOF on 4 August 1985
Successive development of the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake from 1957 to 2000
Early Warning Systems and Risk Mitigation work Tsho Rolpa Lake in Nepal Himalaya Early Warning System Channel Construction (Arun Shrestha,2000) ICIMOD, Oct 2000
Tsho Rolpa glacial lake Early warning System 70m long and 4.2 wide out let canal of Tsho Rolpa lake and 3 m wide opening gated structure Mitigation and Early Warning System at the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in Nepal Outflow from the outlet canal at end moraine
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazards in Himalaya Pho Chu original course Punakha Dzong Pho Chu diverted during 1994 GLOF Mo Chu original course Impact of 7 October 1994 Luggye Tsho GLOF on Punakha Dzong (Photo: Phuntsho Norbu 10 Oct 1994)
Glacier Retreat in Bhutan Himalaya 1993, SPOT Retreating: Raphstreng 42m/yr from 1968 to 2001, Luggye 57m/yr from 1988 to 1998 Decadal development of Glacial Lakes 1.4 Lake area in sq km 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Raphstren g Luggye Thorthormi Drukchung 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year
Glacier Retreat in India Himalaya Siachen glacier Bara Shigri Pindari glaciers Gangotri glacier Dokriani glacier Milam glacier Chhota Shigri - 31.5 m/year - 29.78 m/year - 23.5 m/year - 18 m/year - 16.5 m/year - 9.1 m/year - 6.81 m/year Gara, Gor Garang, Shaune Garang, Nagpo Tokpo Glaciers - 4.22-6.8 m/year Glacier retreat 1963-1997 Janapa Glacier, Jorya Garang - 425 m Naradu Garang - 550 m Bilare Bange - 90 m Karu Garang - 800 m Baspa Bamak - 380 m Parbati glacier - 6800 m Retreat of the Gangotri Glacier snout during the last 220 years (Source: Jeff Kargel, USGS)
Glacier Retreat in China Himalaya Glacier 5O191C0009 68m/y r Gangxi Co Lake Glacier retreat and growth of lakes in Poiqu Basin, China Glacier 5O191B0029 45m/yr China Lumu Chimi Lake 1 0 1 2 Km Glacier on 5 Dec, 2003 Glacial Lake on 1 Jan 1977 Glacial Lake on 9 April, 1984 Glacial Lake on 21 Dec, 1990 Glacial Lake on 18 Oct, 1996 Glacial Lake on 22 Nov, 2000 Glacial Lake on 5 Dec, 2003 Poiqu Basin Nepal
Monitoring of Imja glacier and lake in the Mount Everest region, Nepal Himalaya A case example
Assessment of GLOF hazard If Imja breaks
GLOF Vulnerability at Dingboche Village Dingboche (Photo: Oct 2006)
Imja Glacial lake
Networking of field sensor and transmission station in Mt. Everest region for the real time monitoring of Lake Imja Tsho Everest Everest base camp Kalapathar Khumbu Glacier Loboche (Pyramid) Chhukung Ri Imja lake 25 Km Pangboche Phortse Dingboche Tengboche Namche bazaar Quangde
Monitoring of Glacier and Lake and GLOF in the Himalaya Wi-Fi Mesh-network Web Server Measurement Device Control Sensors (up to 24ch) Air temp. Humidity Solar Radiation, UV CO 2 concentration tolerate the cold weather Camera (0.3-8M Pixels) Solar-cell LED Lighting
Imja Lake and its network statistics of local bandwidth (Imja to Namche) http://fsds.dc.affrc.go.jp/data4/himalayan/
Thank you