SAS 2017/2018 27.02.2018 in Summary: Improved earnings POSITIVES + Passenger revenue up 1% (FX adj.) + Cargo and EB-point sale revenue increased MSEK 109 + Efficiency program delivered MSEK 165 + Positive currency effects of MSEK 205 + Operation from the new London base commenced + Positive cash flow from operating activities + 70% redemption of the preference shares completed NEGATIVES - Lower passenger numbers and load factor - Low punctuality and regularity due to very challenging weather conditions EBT bef. non-recurring items MSEK -373 Capacity, ASK in millions 11,139 0.61 Unit cost 1, SEK PASK 2, SEK CHANGE VS. MSEK +334-0% -1% 0.63 0% Note: 1) Excluding jet fuel and currency adjusted; 2) Currency adjusted 2 1
Improved earnings due to seasonal adjustments DEPARTURES IN FY16 FY18 FY16 = Index 100 EBT BEFORE NONRECURRING ITEMS MSEK -5% 100 FY18 95 100 103 98-707 -373 90 FY16 FY18 EBT 1 PAX YIELD 2-404 -707-373 5,976 6,513 6,141 0.97 0.90 0.94 47% Note: 1) EBT before non-recurring items; MSEK 2) Nominal; SEK 3 Implementation of efficiency program according to plan EXAMPLES OF SAVING INITIATIVES EFFICIENCY PROGRAM GROSS EARNINGS IMPACT SEK bn Flight operation, charges and fuel, MSEK 80 Cimber divestment, long haul manning reduction, increased crew productivity and fuel efficiencies 1,1 0,4 3,0 Ground handling and technical, MSEK 55 Renegotiated line station contracts, digitalization of ticket office & arrival service Optimization of engine maintenance, improved scheduling and admin reduction 0.7 Commercial and overhead, MSEK 30 Ban of wholesale cards, reduced logistical costs for catering and marketing Renegotiated facility contracts 0,8 0,2 savings CASK, nom. MSEK 165-5.6% FY18 FY19 FY20 Achieved -FY18 Total effect Remaining effect 4 2
INTERNAL EXTERNAL Successful launch of SAS Ireland in KEY HIGHLIGHTS AOC approved in December First commercial flight on 20 Dec 2017 now four aircraft in traffic 80,000 passengers transported until mid February 2018 800 flights completed Positive customer response in line with SAS s Scandinavian based production Punctuality in line with the Scandinavian based operation MALAGA BASE UNDERWAY First flight expected during summer 2018 5 Looking ahead, SAS maintains its strategic direction and steers towards a single type fleet MARKET TRENDS AND SAS CONDITIONS Increased leisure travel Increased demand for non-stop routes New Production models SAS ACTIONS Improve core operations Rightsizing Greater seasonal and network adjustments > SEK 3bn efficiency program Focus on broadening revenue base using EuroBonus Strategic wet lease partners complementing SK operation Maintain and improve schedule at regional destinations Legacy costs Complementing production platform Launched SAS Ireland Production platform without legacy Aging fleet and significant financing need Fleet renewal Single type fleet Asset company to enable effective financing 6 3
Building blocks to future proof SAS beyond 2020 PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION OUTCOME Core operations (SK) Regional platforms (External partners) Increased competitiveness Improved efficiency and product offering. Single type fleet (Asset company) European platform (SAS Ireland) Growth and flexibility Greater seasonal adjustments and participate in growing markets. Sustainability A step toward lower emissions for a sustainable future. 7 FINANCIALS 4
Breakdown of the income statement Income statement Nov 17-Jan 18 Nov 16-Jan 17 Change vs. LY Currency Total operating revenue 8,978 8,957 +21-225 Payroll expenditure -2,268-2,398 +130 Jet fuel -1,555-1,579 +24 Government charges -921-970 +49 Other operating expenditure -3,383-3,526 +143 Total operating expenses* -8,127-8,473 +346 +372 EBITDAR before non-recurring items 851 484 +367 +147 EBITDAR-margin* 9.5% 5.4% +4.1 p.u. Leasing costs, aircraft -760-733 -27 Depreciation -353-327 -26 Share of income in affiliated companies -9-11 +2 EBIT before non-recurring items -271-587 +316 +201 EBIT-margin* -3.0% -6.6% +3.6 p.u. Financial items -102-120 +18 EBT before non-recurring items -373-707 +334 +205 Non-recurring items 100 10 +90 EBT -273-697 +424 +205 Note: * Before non-recurring items 9 Breakdown of the income statement rolling 12 months Income statement Feb 17-Jan 18 Feb 16-Jan 17 Change vs. LY Currency Total operating revenue 42,675 40,141 +2,534 +184 Payroll expenditure -9,001-9,135 +134 Jet fuel -6,812-6,800-12 Government charges -4,213-4,165-48 Other operating expenditure -15,330-14,816-514 Total operating expenses* -35,356-34,916-440 +197 EBITDAR before non-recurring items 7,319 5,225 +2,094 +381 EBITDAR-margin* 17.1% 13.0% +4.1 p.u. Leasing costs, aircraft -3,143-2,873-270 Depreciation -1,453-1,298-155 Share of income in affiliated companies 6 40-34 EBIT before non-recurring items 2,729 1,094 +1,635 +396 EBIT-margin* 6.4% 2.7% +3.7 p.u. Financial items -444-458 +14 EBT before non-recurring items 2,285 636 +1,649 +409 Non-recurring items -136 407-543 EBT 2,149 1,043 +1,106 +409 Note: * Before non-recurring items 10 5
Revenue analysis Total Revenue MSEK MSEK 246 8,957 +102 8,978-225 8,732 +47 +96-426 +427 Total revenue Currency Total revenue, FX adj. Scheduled capacity change* Total load factor* Yield* Other traffic revenue Other operating revenue Total revenue FY18 Note: * Based on average yield in +0.7% -4.5 p.u. +6.8% 11 Operating expense analysis Total Operating Expenses MSEK -8,101-162 +65-8,127 +372-16 -78 +165-8,473 Operating expenses, Currency Operating expenses, FX adj. Fuel ex currency, volume Volume Inflation Efficiency program Other Operating expenses FY18 12 6
SAS meets all its financial targets, rolling 12 months Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) at 14% Improved in line with earnings during Capital base to increase going forward Requires improved earnings to maintain ROIC above target 10% 9% Q2 13% Q3 13% 14% Q4 FY18 12% Adjusted financial Net Debt/EBITDAR at 2.9x Improved 0.2 units during 12 months rolling EBITDAR up SEK 0.9bn Aircraft deliveries to increase the adjusted financial net debt going forward 3.4x 4.0x 3.3x 3.1x 2.9x 3x Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Financial preparedness at 38% Stable level in Cash position at SEK 9.3bn 33% 37% 37% 37% 38% 25% Unutilized credit facilities of SEK 2.5bn Financial preparedness to decrease following the redemption of SEK 2.6bn in preference shares in Feb 18 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 13 Positive cash flow in in addition, financing spend being reduced IMPROVED CASH FLOW 1 BY MSEK 549 MSEK Driven by earning improvements and larger volumes of pre-booked tickets 184 LOWER FINANCING SPEND; MSEK ~300 Credit rating upgraded following equity private placement in November 2017 Moody s and S&P upgraded SAS s credit rating to B1 and B+ New non-secured bond of MSEK 1,500 issued -441-425 -365 Replaces an existing bond and reduces interest costs annually by more than MSEK 50-662 FY12 FY13-908 FY14 FY15-589 FY16 FY18 Redemption of SEK 2.6bn preference shares in February 2018 completed Reduces dividend payment by MSEK 245 annually Ambition to redeem remaining preference shares using retained earnings Note: 1) Cash flow from operating activities 14 7
Debt profile and capex Interest bearing liabilities repayments SEK bn 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.3 1.6 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.2 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Unsecured loans Secured loans Aircraft firm order deliveries as at 31 Jan 2018 Maturity profile Financing options for the convertible bond in FY19 of SEK 1.6 bn being considered SEK 0.2bn of secured maturing loans in FY18 relates to pre-delivery payments Investments and aircraft financing SAS to finance last ten A320neo and Airbus A350 Gross investment expected at SEK 6bn Non-aircraft capex of SEK ~0.5bn 7 FY18 7 FY19 Airbus A320neo 5 3 FY20 FY21 Airbus A350 Further aircraft investments considered Final negotiations being held with Airbus and lessors Need to invest in about 50 aircraft from FY19 15 SAS has evolved over the last seven years MAR 2011 JAN 2018 CASK, SEK 0.85 0.75 Revenue/passenger, SEK 1,120 1,120 Pension liabilities, SEK bn FTE 32 14,972 17 9,929 Aircraft 229 155 Interest bearing liabilities, MSEK 13,843 8,234 Interest expenses (quarter), MSEK 210 136 Passengers (SK), LTM, million 23.3 28.3 16 8
Maintained outlook for FY18 - Despite increased jet fuel prices Market environment Aviation industry undergoes significant change Geo-political uncertainty Introduction of aviation taxes Volatile USD and jet fuel prices Main assumptions Slightly less negative earnings than expected in FY18 ASK +1-3% Fuel 580 USD/MT 1) (550 USD/MT) FX rate 8 SEK/USD Gross investments of approximately SEK 6bn The introduction of an aviation tax in Sweden Continued stable macro trend SAS expects to deliver income before tax and nonrecurring items in the interval of SEK 1.5 2.0 billion Note: The outlook is based on no unexpected events occurring 1) Including SAS hedge portfolio. 17 9
SAS has undergone a significant transformation during the last five years FY12 REVENUE AND EBT MARGIN (SEK bn) # PAX # EUROBONUS MEMBERS ROUTES SERVED A/C BLOCK HOURS/DAY A/C TYPES # FTEs Pension commit. SEK bn 25m <3m 183 8.2 7 14,903 33.5 30m >5m 272 9.6 3 10,324 16.8 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 42 42 43 40 39 38 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 37% FINANCIAL PREPAREDNESS 3.1x FINANCIAL NET DEBT/EBITDAR 13% ROIC 19 SAS strategy is to focus on Scandinavia s frequent travelers Typical low cost carrier strategy Strategy of SAS Market Operational platform Multimarket focus, general low yield, especially leisure One type fleet, operate traffic flows that fit fleet Focus on Scandinavia s frequent travelers Fleet designed to fit best network and schedule for customers Growth New destinations, anywhere Improve offer for primary customer base to increase loyalty 20 10
SAS is implementing efficiency measures of SEK 3bn with full effect in FY20 FOCUS AREA Flight ops, wet lease, charges & fuel EXAMPLES OF INITIATIVES Increased use of cabin crew resource pool Increase flexibility in flight deck scheduling Optimize long-haul manning and address demographic cost Gross earnings impact, SEK bn 0.4 Ground handling & Technical maintenance Admin & IT Increase work task flexibility in Ground Increased ambition on external spend Full roll out of lean within Tech Minimize a/c phase out maintenance cost Increased use of lean processes Improve IT contracts and license mgmt Transform IT (e.g. cloud migration, infrastructure consolidation) 0.7 1.1 3.0 Product, sales and distribution Differentiate product offering Reduce distribution and wholesale card costs Reduce logistic costs for onboard catering Reduce back-office and call centre expenditure 0.8 FY18 FY19 FY20 Total effect 21 1 FOCUS AREA Status of the efficiency program, January 31, 2018 Flight ops, wet lease, charges & fuel EXAMPLES OF IMPLEMENTED INITIATIVES Increase use of resource pool Increase flexibility in flight deck scheduling Align manning on long-haul and address demographic cost ACHIEVED SEK ~0.39bn EST. POTENTIAL SEK ~1.2bn Ground handling & Technical maintenance Increase work task flexibility and mobility Increased ambition on external spend Full role out of lean within Tech Minimize aircraft phase out maintenance cost SEK ~0.33bn SEK ~0.9bn Admin & IT Increased use of lean processes and system improvements Improve IT contracts and license management Transform IT (e.g. cloud migration, infrastructure) SEK ~0.1bn SEK ~0.4bn Product, sales and distribution Differentiate product offering to increase individualization Reduce distribution and wholesale card costs Reduce logistic costs for onboard catering Reduce back-office and call centre expenditure SEK ~0.12bn SEK ~0.5bn 22 11
23 SAS fleet January 2018 Aircraft in traffic under SK traffic license Age Owned Leased Total Firm order Airbus A330/A340/A350 12.6 10 6 16 8 Airbus A321/A320/A319 8.5 10 25 35 14 Boeing 737 NG 14.2 24 43 67 Total 12.3 44 74 118 22 Lease order Aircraft in service with a different license than SAS Age Owned Wet leased Total Wet- lease order Bombardier CRJ-900 2.4 24 24 2 Bombardier CRJ1000-1 ATR-72 2.9 9 9 Airbus A320neo 0.1 4 4 Total 2.3 37 37 3 Total aircraft in traffic Age Owned Wet leased Total Firm order Wet- lease order Total 9.9 44 111 155 22 3 24 12
Productivity development 25 26 13
Yield and PASK development vs. last year 27 Quarterly yield development 28 14
Long term yield and passenger load development Load Factor Yield (SEK) 80% 70% 60% January 2005 Yield (12 months rolling) January 2006 January 2007 January 2008 January 2009 January 2010 January 2011 January 2012 Load Factor (12 months rolling) January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 29 Capacity and FTE Capacity ASK total, millions 11 154-0.1% 11 139 SAS FTEs 10 538-5.8% 9 929 Nov-Jan 2017 Nov-Jan 2018 Nov-Jan 2017 Nov-Jan 2018 30 15
Quarterly unit cost development 31 Breakdown of unit cost, Nov 2017 Jan 2018 SAS, SEK, currency adjusted 32 16
Summary of key drivers SAS Q2 2016/17 Q3 2016/17 Q4 2016/17 2017/18 +12.9% +6.9% 0.0% -5.7% +3.1 p.u. -0.6p.u. -2.8p.u. -4.5 p.u. -7.5% -0.5% +5.5% +6.8% -3.3% -1.3% +1.7% 0.0% -7.4% -5.9% +4.5% -0.9% Breakdown of payroll expenses Payroll expenses significantly reduced New pension and remuneration agreements in November 2012 Outsourcing significant parts of operation and administration Increased productivity in all areas Opportunities going forward Digitalization and automation of operation on the ground and administration and where possible also for flying personal Payroll expenses excl. restructuring costs (MSEK) -24% Pilots Crew Tech Ground Admin 11,502 2,979 (26%) 2,087 (18%) FY12 8,793 2,435 (28%) 1,199 (10%) 1,613 (18%) 3,168 (28%) 925 (11%) 2,606 (30%) 2,069 (18%) 1,214 (14%) Avg. number of FTEs 13,649 Pilots 1,340 (10%) Crew 2,599 (19%) Tech 1,500 (11%) Ground Admin 5,621 (41%) 2,589 (19%) FY12-24% 10,324 1,345 (13%) 2,635 (26%) 1,080 (10%) 3,978 (39%) 1,286 (12%) 34 17
35 SAS geographical traffic development in FY18 Total scheduled traffic RPK -5.7% ASK +0.7% Passengers -5.5% PASK 0.0% Domestic RPK -4.2% ASK -0.5% Intercontinental routes RPK -10.0% ASK -1.2% Europe/Intrascand RPK -1.9% ASK +3.0% 36 18
jan-12 mar-12 may-12 jul-12 sep-12 nov-12 jan-13 mar-13 may-13 jul-13 jul-15 13-sep 13-nov jan-14 mar-14 may-14 14-jul 14-sep Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 July-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 SAS passenger development Scheduled passenger, 12 months rolling (Million) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Market seat capacity Supply and demand in Scandinavia, vs LY FY16 FY18 7% 7% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 4% 6% 4% Seats Passengers 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% 0% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 38 Source: Innovata Schedule data, June 2017 19
In recent years, growth has come from the leisure segment driven by increased LCC capacity Capacity Scandinavia- Europe (Seats in millions) 71 CAGR 2011-2016 Purpose of travel Scandinavia (Passengers in millions; CAGR %) CAGR 93 2011-2016 LCCs 59 27 38 +7% Business 75 29 32 +2% Majors 20 20 +1% Leisure 47 61 +6% SAS 12 12 +1% 2011 2016 2011 2016 Source: Innovata schedule data; airport statistics from Swedavia, Avinor and Copenhagen Airport (sub-set of total market) 39 ASK outlook for 2017/2018 ASK outlook for November 2017 October 2018 40 20
41 Financial targets To reach this, SAS pursues three strategic priorities to meet trends and industry developments, ensure competitiveness and create the prerequisites for long-term sustainable profitability. 21
Overview of credit facilities January 2018 43 Cash seasonality Seasonality of SAS cash flow from operating activities, MSEK* 1500 1000 Cash flow from operating activities strongest in Q2 and Q4 Seasonality has increased due to 500 0-500 For the first time, positive cash flow from operating activities in FY18-1000 Q2 Q3 Q4 * Average between 2010 and 2017 44 22
Amortization profile 2.6 2.0 1.3 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 Q2-Q4 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 >FY23 Unsecured loans Secured loans 45 Gearing ratios 450% 350% Fin Net Debt / Equity Equity / Total Assets Fin. Net Debt + 7*Op lease / Equity 250% 150% 50% -50% -150% dec-98 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec 06-dec 07-dec 01-dec 09-dec 10-dec dec-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 46 23
SAS Group Financial Net November- January 47 Development and Break Down Financial Net Debt 48 24
Development of financial net debt 1992-2017 as reported on a quarterly basis 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0-5 000-10 000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 49 Equity / Assets Ratio 1993-2018 as report on a quarterly basis 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 50 25
Financial Net Debt / Equity 1993-2018 as reported on a quarterly basis 2,3 2,0 1,8 1,5 1,3 1,0 0,8 0,5 0,3 0,0-0,3-0,5 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 51 Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & PASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 52 26
Breakdown of currency effects SAS Group Total revenues & costs currency effects Nov 2017-Jan 2018 vs LY Total revenues & costs Forward cover costs Working capital Financial items Total currency effects USD DKK NOK EUR Asian currencies All other Total 2017 2018 Difference 2017 2018 Difference 2017 2018 Difference 219 3 62 2 20 7 125 86 81 5 68 149 81 2 6 4 205 53 Changes in currency exchange rates affected the result by MSEK 205 in Nov 2017-Jan 2018 vs Nov 2016-Jan 2017 Currency effects MSEK on SAS Group 2017/2018 vs 2016/2017 Negative impact on revenue due to the weaker NOK and USD. Positive impact on other operating expenditure due to the weaker NOK and USD. Total revenue Total costs Forward cover costs & working capital Income before depreciation Financial items Income before tax Nov 2017-Jan 2018 225 350 76 201 4 205 54 27
SAS currency distribution - Nov 2016 Oct 2017 Revenue Other 6% EUR 11% GBP 3% SEK 30% Expenses EUR Other GBP 9% 1% 2% SEK 22% USD 8% 36% USD 15% DKK 14% 27% NOK DKK 15% NOK 55 Jet fuel costs decreased MSEK 24 in Fuel cost Q4 MSEK -1,450 +53 +129-1,579-302 +162-18 -1,555 Currency Curr. adj. Volume Price Hedging & time value Other FY18 2018: +156 2017: -5 56 28
Jet fuel and currencies Jet fuel Policy to hedge 40-80% of expected fuel consumption for the next 12 months and up to 50% for the following six months Hedge position as at January 2018 64% of expected jet fuel consumption hedged next 12 months Mixture of call options and swaps Currency Policy to hedge 40-80% of expected currency deficit/surplus for the next 12 months Jet fuel cost sensitivity FY18, SEK bn* Average spot price 7.0 SEK/USD 8.0 SEK/USD 9.0 SEK/USD USD 500/MT 6.1 6.8 7.4 USD 600/MT 6.5 7.3 8.0 USD 700/MT 6.8 7.6 8.4 Currency hedges* 57% of USD hedged next twelve months 70% of NOK hedged next twelve months * Based on hedge position as at 31 January 2018 Max jet fuel price Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 FY19 USD 500-520/MT 80% - - - USD 590-620/MT - 73% 39% - 57 29