Welcome to the ITB Academy Webinar The Germans on holiday Trends from the study Reiseanalyse 2014
Kiel, Kieler Woche, Germany. Photo: Lohmann, June 2009 Hello from Kiel!
The Germans on holiday Trends from the study Reiseanalyse 2014 Kiel/Berlin September 24, 2014 Präsentation: Ulf Sonntag Dieses Dokument ist Teil einer Präsentation und ohne die mündlichen Erläuterungen unvollständig. Foto: Lohmann, 6. März 2014
Today is about Volume of holiday demand Holiday destinations: Demand and interest Types of holiday: Demand and interest Sustainable holiday travel Customer journey: holiday information
Content: What s in the RA? Standard Programme Modules Customer Journey Sustainable Holidays Special topics Exclusive questions
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Reiseanalyse characteristics Annually since 1972: - Vast data basis for analysing developments and trends - extensive experience and methodological compentence Non profit: Run by tourism industry association: FUR e.v. Crowd-Sourced : 30 institutions share the costs (around EUR 750.000 per year) User-Generated Concept : User influence on RA developments Very flexible: Exclusive questions and Modules fit the survey to your needs
Demand for holiday trips on the German market: Volume
How many are going on holiday trips? Did you travel on holiday last year, i.e. in 2013, for 5 days or longer? No, no holiday travel of 5 days or more Yes, holiday travel of 5 days or more 22,1% 15.6m Germanspeaking population 70.3m 77,9% 54.8m German-speaking population aged 14 or over, RA 2014
Up to 1990: western Germans only From 2010: incl. foreigners How many are going on holiday trips? 100 90 80 70 Share of the population who travelled on holiday for five days or more at least once in the past 12 months. Stability 2013: 77.9% 60 50 Moving 10y average 40 30 20 10 0 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 German-speaking population aged 14 or over (up to 1989: only West Germany, from 2010: incl. foreigners); RA 1970-2014, 1954-1969: various surveys
Holiday trips 2013: Demand figures Year Travellers Holiday trips per person Holiday trips Expenditure p. p. and trip Turnover 2013 54.8 mn 1.29 70.7 mn 906 64.1 bn Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2014
Holiday trips 2013: 33,6 Mio. trips by 50+ years = 48% of all trips 11 million 70+ years 16% 14-29 years 21% 15 million 22 million 50-69 years 32% 30-49 years 32% 23 million Total of 70,7 million holiday trips (5+ days) Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2014
Travel frequency: At least one holiday trip per year is a basic habit for most Germans 44 32 18 16 36 33 12 24 Infrequent travellers No holiday travel in the past three years (but may have travelled in previous years) Occasional travellers Have travelled on at least one holiday in one or two of the past three years 32 24 36 32 46 51 64 Frequent travellers Travelled on at least one holiday in each of the past three years Jan 1972 Jan 1982 Jan 1992 Jan 2003 Jan 2014 German-speaking population aged 14 or over (up to 1989: only West Germany, from 2010: incl. foreigners); RA 1970-2014
La Martinique; Photo: Lohmann, 2011 Holiday trips 2013: Destinations
Holiday destinations 2013 Other countries 35% 30% Germany 35% Mediterranean Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2014
Holiday destinations 2013: TOP 10 in detail domestic abroad Bavaria 6.0% Spain 12.6% Meckl.-West P. 5.9% Italy 7.6% Schleswig-H. 4.1% Turkey 7.4% Lower Saxony 3.8% Austria 5.9% Baden-W. 2.5% France 3.1% Berlin 1.3% Croatia 2.9% NRW 1.3% Greece 2.2% Saxony 1.1% Poland 2.1% Brandenburg 0.7% Netherlands 2.1% Rhineland-P. 0.7% Denmark 1.7% Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2014
Holiday destinations (regions) 1995-2013 30% 9% long-haul 7% North-western Europe Germany 9% 7% Eastern Europe 1995 2005 2013 25% Alps* 10% European MED Non-European MED * Please note: Alps = Alpine regions in Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland Basis: Holiday trips of German-speaking population 14+ years; 1995, 2005: only Germans. Source: RA 1996, RA 2006, RA 2014
Important: Take a closer look! 3,0 2,5 % of all holiday trips, selected countries in Eastern Europe 3,0 2,5 % of all holiday trips, selected long-haul countries 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 Poland Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Central/Southern Africa North America Cental/South America Asia/Australia Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2003-2014
Bregenz, Austria, Photo: Lohmann, April 2013 Lochau, Bodensee, Austria. Photo: Lohmann, April 2013 Potential guests for holiday destinations and the multioptional consumer
Multioptional tourist: They have more destinations in mind than they are likely to travel to Population 2,5 7 Example: Potential guests Japan 2014-16 3,2 28 Number of destinations visited 2011-2013 Number of destinations interested in 2014-2016 German-speaking population 14+ years and total potential Japan 2014-16 RA 2014; set of 59 international destinations
Destination interest: Dynamics 2005-2014 Northwestern Europe 38 Jan 14 Jan 05 Eastern Europe 26 Germany 55 + Alps 44 + - = European MED Non-European MED 37 58 + + long-haul 30 + Figures in %, multiple answers Expressed total interest for holiday destinations in the next 3 years German-speaking population of 14+ years RA 2004 and RA 2014 face-to-face
Interest in long-haul holiday destinations 2014-2016 12 mn +63% 8 mn** +100% 11 mn +81% 6 mn* +72% 6 mn +75% Interest in long-haul holiday destinations by continent, within the next 3 years, in million. Development of this interest within the population since 2004 in %. Africa without Mediterranean countries ** Asia without Russia, Mediterranean and Gulf countries German-speaking population of 14+ years RA 2004 and RA 2014
Interest in long-haul holiday destinations 2014-2016 10% 16% 9% 6% 6% 7% 12% 12% Interest in long-haul holiday destinations by country, within the next 3 years, in % German-speaking population of 14+ years RA 2014
Interest in holiday destinations North-western Europe Denmark + 61% 18 Norway Sweden + 79% + 83% 13 13 Great Britain + 20% 11 Ireland + 48% 10 Finland + 85% 7 in % Iceland + 140% 6 2014-2016 2003-2005 Figures in %, multiple answers Expressed total interest for holiday destinations in the next 3 years German-speaking population of 14+ years RA 2003 and RA 2014
Types of holiday: actual demand and interest
Types of holidays 2002 until 2013 2002-2013 Figure 2013 Trend 2002-2013 Figure 2013 Trend Sun&beach 43 + 0,4 Friends/ relatives 12-0,3 Relax 38-0,5 Nature 30 + 0,3 Family 25 + 0,2 Experience 22-0,1 Active 17 ± 0,0 Fun/Party 11 ± 0,0 Roundtrip 9 + 0,1 Culture 8 ± 0,0 Health 6-0,2 Study 3 ± 0,0 Sightseeing 15 + 0,5 Actual demand for types of holidays, in % all holiday trips Trend = linear in percentage points for each year; *2012: notional value Holiday trips (5 days and more): German-speaking population of 14+ years, RA 2003-2014
Types of holidays: Dynamics of interest 2005/2014 Development 2005 until 2014 City trips + 39% Wellness holidays + 37% Cruise + 22% Winter/sun + 18% Familiy trips + 16% Fitness holidays - 27% Spa holidays - 14% Health holidays - 12% Winter/snow - 10% Club holidays - 7% Development of the total interest for selected types of holiiday within the population since 2004 in %. German-speaking population of 14+ years RA 2005 and RA 2014
Bregenz, Austria, Photo: Lohmann, April 2013 Sustainable holidays: the consumer s side
Importance of sustainability for holiday trips 22% 61% 15% Sustainability is an important aspect when planning my holidays Would like to make my holiday trips more sustainable Sustainability of my holiday trips is of no importance to me Basis: German-speaking population 14-70 years, Source: RA online 11/2013, Question by FUR, funded by BMUB
Opportunities for (more) sustainable holidays: Examples I would like my holiday trips to be sustainable. It would be helpful for me, if 55% 49% 43% 32% 20% this would not include additional cost my holiday needs are still fulfilled I could access more information the offer for these holidays would be bigger if my travel companion would also like it Basis: German-speaking population 14-70 years, who would like their holiday trips to be sustainable Source: RA online 11/2013, Question by FUR, funded by BMUB
Reducing the ecological footprint of holiday travel: Who is responsible? responsible primarily responsible 65% 57% 40% 41% 23% 16% Tourists Tourism Industry Government Basis: German-speaking population 14-70 years, Source: RA online 11/2013, Question by FUR, funded by BMUB
Rome, Italy, Photo: Lohmann, April 2011 Customer journey: New information strategies
Main holiday information sources: High importance of personal recommendation despite the rise of the internet Personal Reccommendation as source of holiday planning information for the main holiday in the years The Internet as source of holiday planning information for the main holiday in the years 33 42 55 51 in % 0 6 1986 2000 2012 1986 2000 2012 Main holiday trips 1986, 2000 and 2012 (5+ days of the Germans 14+ years) RA 1986, RA 2001 and RA 2013
Main holiday information sources 2012: Offline information still more important than online information offline 87 Used at least one OFFLINE information source while planning their main holiday 2012 in % online 51 Used at least one ONLINE information source while planning their main holiday 2012 Main holiday trips 2012 (5+ days of the Germans 14+ years) RA 2013
Means of communication while on a holiday trip Postcard/traditional mail 50% None of these 17% Phone/SMS 52% 54.8 million 83% E-mail Online chat Posts in social networks 14% 12% 19% Total: 31% Posts on video/photo platforms 2% Other 2% Main holiday trips 2013 (5+ days of the Germans 14+ years) RA 2014
Online posting about your holiday trip: not too frequently; rather positive No 64% Online posting about your last holiday trip? frequently (in total 10x and more) 15 Yes 36% 11 2 6 from time to time (in total 4x to 9x) 38 81 rarely (in total max. 3x) 47 mainly positive mainly negative mainly neutral cannot say Onliner 14-70 yrs., having been on a holiday trip during the last 12 months and having posted something online about their last trip.; figures in % RA online,11/2013
Stubaital; Juli 2009 (Foto: Martin Lohmann) Lessons learned
Lessons learned If you want to play on the German market it s good to know what s happening Good and up-to-date market data are important, to not only know the status-quo, but also developments and trends. to be able to analyse your own segment en detail Market Volume: in total very stable and reliable; individually need for distraction Holiday destinations: Stability for the big players. Good chances e.g. for long-haul destinations and destinations in North-western Europe Types of holiday: sun&beach! In almost any case: Not too boring, not too exhausting Sustainability: Many want it, few already live it! Holiday information: New ways are used, but the old channels do not die! Behind all this, there is a German consumer who is experienced, competent, demanding and multi-optional This is a challenge for the industry!
Looking for more? www.reiseanalyse.de Publication I: RA 2014 English Summary Publication II: German Holiday Travel 2015 (Reiseanalyse Trend Analysis) Reiseanalyse 2014/2015: The whole deal
Thank you! Questions?
ITB Academy ITB Berlin The World's Leading Travel Trade Show Messe Berlin GmbH Messedamm 22 14055 Berlin Tel.: + 49 (0)30-3038-2528 Jessica Varga E-Mail: varga@messe-berlin.de Website: www.itb-berlin.de/academy FUR Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.v. Fleethörn 23 D-24103 Kiel Tel.: +49 (0)431 88888 00 Fax: +49 (0)431 8888 679 Ulf Sonntag E-Mail: ulf.sonntag@reiseanalyse.de Website: www.reiseanalyse.de