Winnipeg Market Report New hotel development in Winnipeg is picking up again By Bryce Witherspoon, Stevenson Advisors The opening of the Mere Hotel on Waterfront Drive (2013), the Homewood Suites by Hilton at the Airport (2014) and The ALT Hotel at 311 Portage Avenue (2015) signalled a new era for the hotel industry in Winnipeg however new hotel construction slowed down from 2015 to 2016. There were only two hotels under construction in 2016 according to building permits obtained from the City of Winnipeg; The Super 8 Winnipeg at 1486 Niakwa Road East and The Hilton Garden Inn at Kenaston Boulevard and Sterling Lyon Parkway, a 6-storey, 127 room hotel in the new Seasons retail development, which began construction in Summer 2016 and is scheduled to be completed sometime later this year. Fast forward to 2017 and there are several large hotel developments either under construction or in the works in Winnipeg. Among these new hotel developments are: - The Hyatt House at 700 Sterling Lyon Parkway, a six storey, 135 room luxury hotel, currently in the planning stages - The Fairfield Inn Hotel at 1301 Ellice Avenue, a six storey, 90 room expansion to be completed by 2018. - A new Best Western hotel on Regent Avenue West, which is scheduled to be under construction later this year - The Sutton Place Hotel, a 27-storey, 275 room tower at True North Square on the former Carlton Inn site which is scheduled to be under construction in 2018. - Canad Inns is planning to build a new $45 million hotel at McPhillips Street Station Casino, scheduled to be under construction in 2018 and completed sometime in 2019 The recent influx of hotel development suggests investors are confident in the local economy, which is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2017 according to the Conference Board of Canada. The increase in hotel development is also reflective of a strong tourism industry in Manitoba which has benefitted from a low Canadian Dollar and a recovering U.S economy. According to the Conference Board of Canada s recent forecast, overnight visitation for Winnipeg is projected to increase by 3.3% in 2017. Domestic travel is expected to increase by 3.1%, including 4.4% in business travel and 3.3% in leisure travel. On the sales side, there have been limited hotel transactions in the city in recent years. Some notable sales include: - Hilton Suites Winnipeg Airport (1800 Wellington Avenue) which sold in 2015 for $11,369,000 *part of a portfolio sale - Best Western Plus (1715 Wellington Avenue) which sold in 2015 for $10,052,000 * part of a portfolio sale - St. Regis Hotel (285 Smith Street) which sold in 2015 for $4,000,000 - Pembina Hotel (1011 Pembina Highway) which sold in 2015 for $2,609,148 Currently, hotel capitalization rates in Downtown Winnipeg are ranging from 8.00% to 9.00% and suburban limited service hotels are transacting at capitalization rates ranging from 8.50% to 9.50%. These capitalization rates are based on market transactions and feedback from investors on their yield expectations. With the expected increased demand for hotel rooms in Winnipeg, the RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is projected to reach $84.00 in 2017. Historical RevPAR in Winnipeg: 2016 - $82 2015 - $79 2014 - $77 According to Hotelier Magazine s most recent data release, in year-over-year comparisons, Manitoba saw the largest lift in hotel occupancy of any Canadian Province, with a 5.2-per-cent increase to 67.3 per cent. Historical hotel performance in Manitoba has been strong and this trend is expected to continue in 2017. Winnipeg is considered to offer investors good value in comparison to other major cities. Manitoba is an economically stable province and it appears the timing is right in the eyes of investors. As new hotel supply continues to grow in Winnipeg, we may see some impact on hotel performance but as of right now the outlook for the local hotel industry is positive. If you require valuation services for your lodging property in Manitoba or Northwestern Ontario. Contact Bryce Witherspoon of Stevenson Advisors at 204-934-6238 or email bwitherspoon@ stevenson.mb.ca
Increasing Trend Multi - Family Winnipeg s overall apartment vacancy rate is projected to rise slightly to 3.0% by the end of 2017 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation). Increased inventory and renters moving to home ownership are contributing factors to the projected rise in vacancy. Apartment building sales were brisk during the first quarter of 2017 with the average sale price per suite at $85,850.34 per suite. Four apartment buildings sold for over $100,000 per suite during the first quarter of 2017. During the first three months of 2017, there were 1,056 multifamily housing starts in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area, Decreasing Trend Stable an increase of 222% from the same period in 2016. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, lower inventories and demographics (first time homebuyers) are contributing to an increased demand for multi-family projects. Construction of several high profile apartment projects are moving full steam ahead including The Spot at Tuxedo Point at 785-795 Sterling Lyon Parkway. Two buildings are already completed (128 total units) with two more buildings currently under construction and scheduled to be completed in the next year (128 units). Construction at 570 Stradbrook Avenue (four storeys, 41 units) is well underway with occupancy expected in early 2018. Office Apartment 2.8% Average Rent (Two Bedroom) $1,100 per month Average Multi-Family 5.0% - 5.75% Winnipeg s overall office vacancy rate was 7.6% in Q1 2017, up from 7.4% in Q4 2016 (Cushman & Wakefield Winnipeg). The overall suburban vacancy rate remained at 6.2% in the first quarter of 2017 with the class B suburban vacancy rate now sitting at 1.9%. Demand for office space in the southwest quadrant of the city is expected to keep pace with the rapid commercial and residential development in the area surrounding the intersection of Kenaston Boulevard and Sterling Lyon Parkway. The overall Central Business District vacancy rate was 4.6% in Q1 2017 however that is expected to increase over the course of the year as several large tenants move into new inventory. Landlords of Class A and B office space will continue to feel the pressure to renovate existing space in order to stay competitive with the rest of the market. The most significant office sale transaction of early 2017 took place in May, when the sale of 200 Portage Avenue closed. The five storey, 83,850 square foot office tower located at the intersection of Portage and Main sold for $16 million ($190.82 psf) to a local buyer. The retail branch of Scotiabank will remain at 200 Portage Avenue while the rest of its operations will relocate to True North Square in 2018. Winnipeg Overall Office 7.6% Class A Downtown $20.00 psf Average Office 6.0% - 7.25% 2
Retail The highly anticipated Outlet Collection Winnipeg Mall opened in May, boasting over 400,000 square foot of retail space at an estimated cost of $200 million. The mall is expected to attract hundreds of thousands of people a year, including tourists. It still remains to be seen what long term effect, if any, the mall will have on other major shopping centres in the city such as Polo Park, but in the short term the impact on the local economy is projected to be positive. Despite a plethora of new fast food chains opening in the city over the last few years including Jollibee, Fatburger and Qdoba Mexican Grill, there are still more national quick serve restaurant chains interested in entering the Winnipeg marketplace in 2017 and 2018. In mid-may, it was announced that two prominent vacancies in Osborne Village had been filled. The former American Apparel space at 108 Osborne Street will soon be occupied by Anytime Fitness while 135 Osborne Street, formerly occupied by Black Rabbit Bistro, will be replaced by the Little Goat Food & Drink restaurant, run by the same owners of the Bouchee Boucher restaurant in St. Boniface. (Winnipeg Free Press) The two new additions to Osborne Village are much welcomed as the area has seen some turnover over the last few years including the closing of the Osborne Village Inn in 2015. The redevelopment of that site is ongoing and current plans are in place to convert it into a mixed-use building. Overall Retail 6% Industrial New Construction $32.00 psf Average Retail 6.0% - 6.5% Winnipeg s overall industrial vacancy rate is expected to remain at 3% for most of 2017 as there is still a lack of product on the market while no major new construction has been announced. There is pent up demand for multi-tenant industrial investment real estate across Winnipeg as evidenced by some of the recent sales. Because the supply of multi-tenant industrial buildings for sale is low and the demand is high, it has resulted in sale prices above asking. One of the largest industrial sale transactions in Q1 2017 was the sale of 122 Paquin Road, a 44,894 square foot single-tenant industrial building which sold in March, 2017 for $3,050,000 ($67.94 psf). Located in the St. Boniface Industrial Park, the property is on a +/- 6.76 acre site and is composed of a +/- 36,935 square foot main building and a +/- 7,959 square foot cold storage building. A new benchmark for vacant industrial land in Southwest Winnipeg was set in February 2017 when 8.67 acres on Fultz Boulevard sold for $6,000,000 ($692,041.52 per acre). The land will not be developed as a traditional industrial use and is expected to be a flex development. Net renewal rates for industrial flex space in Southwest Winnipeg are getting done in the low to mid teen range for high exposure locations. The high renewal rates speak to the lack of available product in the area in addition to the high demand from tenants wishing to relocate or expand. Overall Industrial 3% Industrial $7.00 PSF Average Industrial 6.75% - 7.25% 3
Select Q1/Q2 2017 Sale Transactions 177 Lombard Avenue Property Type: Office Building Area: 78,006 sf Age: 1909 Sale Date: January, 2017 Sale Price: $7,850,000 Sale Price PSF: $100.63 200 Portage Avenue Property Type: Office Building Area: 83,850 sf Age: 1979 Sale Date: May, 2017 Sale Price: $16,000,000 Sale Price PSF: $190.82 122 Paquin Road Property Type: Industrial Building Area: 44,894 sf Age: 1981/2002 Sale Date: March, 2017 Sale Price: $3,050,000 Sale Price PSF: $67.94 607 McMillan Avenue Property Type: Apartment Building Building Area: 13,018 sf Age: 1960 Sale Date: February, 2017 Sale Price: $2,176,000 Sale Price Per Suite: $103,619.04 4
Our Team Stevenson Advisors is a full service appraisal firm located in the heart of Downtown Winnipeg on St. Mary Avenue and Garry Street that specializes in valuation, advisory and corporate real estate services. Advisors is a division of Stevenson Real Estate Services, an integrated commercial real estate services firm that was founded in 1901. We work closely with Cushman & Wakefield Winnipeg (brokerage), Stevenson Management (property management) and MMI Asset Management, drawing from a wide collection of current and historic commercial real estate data. Advisors uses this competitive advantage to be a market leader in valuation and advisory services in Winnipeg. Aaron DeGroot Vice President P: 204-934-6435 E: adegroot@stevenson.mb.ca Trevor Smith Director- Property Tax Consulting P: 204-934-6221 E: tsmith@stevenson.mb.ca Kassy Phillips-Hnatyshyn Senior Appraiser P: 204-934-6230 E: kphillips@stevenson.mb.ca Sean O Neil P: 204-934-8905 E: soneil@stevenson.mb.ca Bryce Witherspoon P: 204-934-6238 E: bwitherspoon@stevenson.mb.ca Meghann Marshall P: 204-934-6247 E: mmarshall@stevenson.mb.ca Adam Sawyer P: 204-934-6240 E: asawyer@stevenson.mb.ca Ezra Ginsburg Research and Data Analyst P: 204-934-6200 E: eginsburg@stevenson.mb.ca 5